Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#140
Expected Predictive Rating+2.9#132
Pace68.1#219
Improvement-2.2#315

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#175
First Shot-3.7#282
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#25
Layup/Dunks-2.6#271
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#61
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#132
Freethrows-5.1#362
Improvement-1.4#293

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#115
First Shot+0.5#152
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#98
Layups/Dunks-0.6#195
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#11
Freethrows-3.5#342
Improvement-0.8#251
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 18.4% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 96.3% 97.7% 91.4%
.500 or above in Conference 92.6% 95.1% 83.9%
Conference Champion 20.5% 23.8% 9.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 1.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round16.7% 18.4% 11.2%
Second Round1.4% 1.6% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Home) - 76.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 55 - 7
Quad 416 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 153 Arkansas St. W 90-65 65%     1 - 0 +22.4 +11.0 +10.1
  Tue, Nov 11 210 @Rice W 81-69 56%     2 - 0 +11.9 +10.8 +1.5
  Fri, Nov 14 221 Abilene Christian W 76-66 78%     3 - 0 +3.5 +5.4 -1.5
  Tue, Nov 18 184 @Fresno St. L 78-80 50%     3 - 1 -0.6 +8.8 -9.4
  Fri, Nov 21 293 @Pepperdine W 63-60 71%     4 - 1 -1.3 -6.7 +5.6
  Sat, Nov 29 177 @Texas Arlington L 61-66 48%     4 - 2 -3.1 -0.4 -3.4
  Wed, Dec 3 208 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73-60 76%     5 - 2 1 - 0 +6.9 +0.6 +6.6
  Sun, Dec 7 358 Louisiana Monroe W 96-76 95%     6 - 2 +2.7 +10.9 -8.9
  Wed, Dec 17 215 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-65 77%    
  Mon, Dec 29 303 @East Texas A&M W 74-68 73%    
  Wed, Dec 31 274 @Northwestern St. W 73-69 66%    
  Sat, Jan 3 256 @SE Louisiana W 70-66 64%    
  Mon, Jan 5 71 @McNeese St. L 65-75 19%    
  Sat, Jan 10 275 Houston Christian W 75-65 83%    
  Mon, Jan 12 189 Incarnate Word W 74-68 71%    
  Sat, Jan 17 245 @New Orleans W 77-74 62%    
  Mon, Jan 19 258 @Nicholls St. W 73-69 64%    
  Sat, Jan 24 224 @Lamar W 67-65 57%    
  Mon, Jan 26 274 Northwestern St. W 76-66 83%    
  Sat, Jan 31 256 SE Louisiana W 73-63 81%    
  Mon, Feb 2 71 McNeese St. L 68-72 38%    
  Sat, Feb 7 224 Lamar W 70-62 76%    
  Mon, Feb 9 303 East Texas A&M W 77-65 86%    
  Sat, Feb 14 208 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 73-71 55%    
  Mon, Feb 16 215 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 70-68 56%    
  Sat, Feb 21 258 Nicholls St. W 76-66 81%    
  Mon, Feb 23 245 New Orleans W 80-71 80%    
  Sat, Feb 28 275 @Houston Christian W 72-68 65%    
  Mon, Mar 2 189 @Incarnate Word W 72-71 51%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 15 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.9 5.5 4.7 2.7 1.0 0.2 20.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 4.0 8.2 9.4 7.6 3.6 0.9 0.1 34.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 4.1 5.8 4.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 17.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.0 0.9 0.1 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.2 7.9 10.3 12.0 13.7 13.1 11.7 9.2 5.6 2.8 1.0 0.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
21-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0
20-2 98.2% 2.7    2.4 0.4
19-3 83.5% 4.7    3.7 1.0
18-4 59.9% 5.5    3.4 2.0 0.1 0.0
17-5 32.8% 3.9    1.9 1.9 0.2
16-6 14.6% 1.9    0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0
15-7 4.0% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
14-8 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 20.5% 20.5 13.2 6.6 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.2% 46.8% 46.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
21-1 1.0% 49.1% 49.1% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5
20-2 2.8% 39.7% 39.7% 12.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.7
19-3 5.6% 36.6% 36.6% 12.7 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.6
18-4 9.2% 29.9% 29.9% 13.1 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.7 0.0 6.4
17-5 11.7% 26.0% 26.0% 13.4 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.2 0.2 8.7
16-6 13.1% 20.6% 20.6% 13.7 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.3 10.4
15-7 13.7% 14.6% 14.6% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 11.7
14-8 12.0% 10.5% 10.5% 14.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 10.8
13-9 10.3% 7.1% 7.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 9.6
12-10 7.9% 4.2% 4.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.5
11-11 5.2% 2.6% 2.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.1
10-12 3.5% 1.3% 1.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 3.5
9-13 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 2.0
8-14 1.0% 1.0
7-15 0.6% 0.6
6-16 0.2% 0.2
5-17 0.1% 0.1
4-18 0.0% 0.0
3-19 0.0% 0.0
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.0 5.5 2.0 0.2 83.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.5 6.9 3.4 13.8 10.3 41.4 24.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%