Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.0 #107
Expected Predictive Rating +6.9 #80
Pace 66.6 #241
Improvement -1.0 #235

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #149 C- C B+ F D
Defense #75 B- C C- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #319 1.05 #296 -5.0 #336
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #57 0.79 #122 +3.1 #51
Three Pointers 40% #204 1.04 #139 +0.0 #177
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #237 -2.0 #236
Freethrows 0.22 #353 66% #347 0.15 #362
Second Chance 32.8% #116 0.98 #257 0.32 #164
Turnovers 13.2% #20
Total Offense +0.3 #149

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #92 1.06 #66 +0.0 #175
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #110 0.80 #250 -1.1 #271
Three Pointers 36% #314 0.91 #54 +4.6 #24
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #67 +3.6 #68
Freethrows 0.29 #163 73% #208 0.21 #158
Second Chance 29.7% #142 1.06 #203 0.31 #165
Turnovers 15.5% #230
Total Defense +3.6 #75

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.5% #323 0.1% #167
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.4% #198 -7.0% #62
Possession Length 17.8 #225 17.7 #248
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.08 #361 0.15 #113
Improvement -2.3 #303 +1.3 #105

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.4% 33.0% 27.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 66.6% 69.6% 43.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round32.4% 33.0% 27.9%
Second Round3.0% 3.2% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Home) - 88.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 36 - 36 - 5
Quad 418 - 125 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 151 Arkansas St. W 90 - 65 73% +16  1 - 0 +23 +10 C- A+ F +11 A+ A C
 Tue, Nov 11 238 @Rice W 81 - 69 70% +8  2 - 0 +11 +9 B- C B- +2 B+ C+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 252 Abilene Christian W 76 - 66 87% +1  3 - 0 +2 +4 C- D+ A+ -2 B B D-
 Tue, Nov 18 152 @Fresno St. L 78 - 80 52% +1  3 - 1 +2 +12 C+ A+ B- -11 F D- C+
 Fri, Nov 21 280 @Pepperdine W 63 - 60 77% -3  4 - 1 -1 -7 F A- B- +6 B- C A-
 Sat, Nov 29 158 @Texas Arlington L 61 - 66 53% +3  4 - 2 -2 +1 D+ C B- -4 D+ B- C
 Wed, Dec 3 191 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73 - 60 80% +8  5 - 2 1 - 0 +8 +1 D- C A+ +7 A+ A F
 Sun, Dec 7 361 Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 76 97% +11  6 - 2 +1 +11 B+ F+ A -10 B+ F F
 Wed, Dec 17 188 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 60 80% +1  7 - 2 2 - 0 +4 +4 C+ C A- +1 C+ D C+
 Mon, Dec 29 311 @East Texas A&M W 75 - 48 82% +6  8 - 2 3 - 0 +21 +8 D C+ A- +15 B- A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 267 @Northwestern St. W 74 - 64 74% +7  9 - 2 4 - 0 +7 +3 D+ F B+ +5 B+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 266 @SE Louisiana W 73 - 63 74% +8  10 - 2 5 - 0 +7 +6 D+ C+ B- +2 C+ F+ C+
 Mon, Jan 5 83 @McNeese St. L 64 - 66 28% +2  10 - 3 5 - 1 +8 +5 C- B C- +3 C+ A- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 300 Houston Christian W 85 - 67 91% +15  11 - 3 6 - 1 +7 +15 C- B A+ -6 D- C A
 Mon, Jan 12 240 Incarnate Word W 56 - 46 86% +7  12 - 3 7 - 1 +3 -18 F C C+ +21 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 219 @New Orleans W 84 - 79 67% +1  13 - 3 8 - 1 +5 +10 B+ F A+ -6 D- D C-
 Mon, Jan 19 260 @Nicholls St. W 79 - 62 73% +16  14 - 3 9 - 1 +15 +10 B+ F B- +5 A+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 207 @Lamar W 88 - 81 64% +4  15 - 3 10 - 1 +7 +21 A+ D- A+ -13 D F C
 Tue, Jan 27 267 Northwestern St. W 69 - 67 88% +8  16 - 3 11 - 1 -7 -11 F D+ B+ +4 A+ D D-
 Sat, Jan 31 266 SE Louisiana W 73 - 60 89%
 Mon, Feb 2 83 McNeese St. L 70 - 71 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 207 Lamar W 73 - 63 82%
 Mon, Feb 9 311 East Texas A&M W 78 - 62 93%
 Sat, Feb 14 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 70 - 67 61%
 Mon, Feb 16 188 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 68 - 65 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 260 Nicholls St. W 78 - 66 87%
 Mon, Feb 23 219 New Orleans W 81 - 71 83%
 Sat, Feb 28 300 @Houston Christian W 74 - 65 80%
 Mon, Mar 2 240 @Incarnate Word W 72 - 67 69%
Totals 24 - 5 19 - 3 +4 +0 C- C B+ +4 B- C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.9 12.4 23.5 20.2 7.2 66.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.5 10.7 11.4 3.5 33.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.9 13.6 23.8 27.0 20.2 7.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 7.2    7.2
20-2 100.0% 20.2    18.6 1.7
19-3 87.2% 23.5    16.0 7.5
18-4 52.0% 12.4    5.9 6.4
17-5 21.6% 2.9    1.1 1.9 0.0
16-6 6.4% 0.4    0.1 0.3 0.0
15-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11
Total 66.6% 66.6 48.8 17.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 7.2% 41.3% 41.3% 11.8 0.0 0.8 1.9 0.2 4.2
20-2 20.2% 38.2% 38.2% 12.4 0.3 4.6 2.6 0.2 0.0 12.5
19-3 27.0% 34.4% 34.4% 12.7 0.1 3.7 4.7 0.7 0.0 17.7
18-4 23.8% 30.5% 30.5% 12.9 0.0 1.6 4.3 1.3 0.0 16.5
17-5 13.6% 25.7% 25.7% 13.2 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.0 0.0 10.1
16-6 5.9% 21.8% 21.8% 13.5 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 4.6
15-7 1.8% 18.0% 18.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.5
14-8 0.4% 10.5% 10.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-9 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-10 0.0% 0.0
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 32.4% 32.4% 0.0% 12.7 67.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.0% 100.0% 11.8 0.2 28.1 65.2 6.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%