Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.9 #267
Expected Predictive Rating -8.1 #295
Pace 64.6 #293
Improvement +5.6 #13

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #194 C- C- C- B- D+
Defense #308 F+ D- C D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #231 1.02 #324 -3.6 #305
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #69 0.85 #57 +3.6 #33
Three Pointers 37% #270 1.06 #119 -1.3 #225
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #220 -1.4 #221
Freethrows 0.33 #106 74% #119 0.24 #97
Second Chance 25.1% #323 1.15 #59 0.29 #244
Turnovers 17.1% #223
Total Offense -1.2 #194

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #109 1.31 #337 -4.8 #332
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #296 0.89 #346 +0.3 #163
Three Pointers 42% #150 1.10 #291 -2.2 #285
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #349 -6.7 #349
Freethrows 0.35 #308 72% #193 0.25 #304
Second Chance 34.0% #311 1.18 #324 0.40 #339
Turnovers 16.9% #154
Total Defense -4.7 #308

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #301 1.4% #299
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.0% #190 11.6% #349
Possession Length 19.0 #327 16.6 #68
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #285 0.20 #271
Improvement +1.1 #127 +4.5 #11

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 8.8% 18.9% 4.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.7% 4.3% 16.4%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Away) - 30.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 61 - 13
Quad 47 - 89 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 30 @Texas A&M L 68 - 98 2% -19  0 - 1 -12 -2 D C- C -8 B- F C+
 Thu, Nov 6 140 @North Texas L 53 - 80 17% -8  0 - 2 -23 -3 C+ F F -25 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 11 328 @North Alabama L 83 - 87 OT 56% -5  0 - 3 -11 +0 C+ F C- -11 D F C
 Tue, Nov 18 98 @San Francisco L 64 - 84 10% -15  0 - 4 -12 +4 D C+ D -18 F B- D
 Fri, Nov 21 71 @Grand Canyon L 72 - 85 7% -8  0 - 5 -2 +9 A F A- -12 F+ D- C
 Sat, Nov 29 254 Southern L 73 - 75 59% -8  0 - 6 -10 -1 D C+ C- -9 F D+ B
 Fri, Dec 5 83 @McNeese St. L 54 - 92 8% -24  0 - 7 0 - 1 -28 -12 D+ F F -17 F C B-
 Sun, Dec 7 266 @SE Louisiana W 76 - 68 38% -3  1 - 7 1 - 1 +5 +10 C A+ D- -4 C+ D- C
 Sat, Dec 13 66 @California L 70 - 79 6% -1  1 - 8 +2 +6 A- C F -4 B- F B+
 Mon, Dec 29 207 Lamar L 61 - 76 50% -12  1 - 9 1 - 2 -21 -10 F+ F+ D+ -12 F B B
 Wed, Dec 31 107 Stephen F. Austin L 64 - 74 26% -7  1 - 10 1 - 3 -9 -2 D+ F+ A -7 D B C+
 Sat, Jan 3 219 New Orleans W 74 - 68 52% -5  2 - 10 2 - 3 -0 -0 F A+ C- -0 C+ B- D+
 Mon, Jan 5 260 @Nicholls St. L 72 - 74 36% -2  2 - 11 2 - 4 -4 -1 F+ C+ A- -3 D- B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 188 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79 - 78 46% -7  3 - 11 3 - 4 -4 +10 A+ B F -14 F C F+
 Mon, Jan 12 191 UT Rio Grande Valley W 64 - 63 47% -4  4 - 11 4 - 4 -4 -6 D D+ D- +2 C+ C+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 240 @Incarnate Word L 74 - 76 33% +4  4 - 12 4 - 5 -3 +5 B+ F+ D- -9 C- F A+
 Mon, Jan 19 300 @Houston Christian L 80 - 82 47% +4  4 - 13 4 - 6 -7 +24 B- A+ B -31 F F C
 Tue, Jan 27 107 @Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 69 12% -8  4 - 14 4 - 7 +5 -2 F C+ B- +7 B C- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 219 @New Orleans L 75 - 80 31%
 Mon, Feb 2 260 Nicholls St. W 75 - 73 59%
 Sat, Feb 7 311 @East Texas A&M L 72 - 73 50%
 Mon, Feb 9 207 @Lamar L 67 - 73 29%
 Sat, Feb 14 266 SE Louisiana W 71 - 68 60%
 Mon, Feb 16 83 McNeese St. L 68 - 78 17%
 Sat, Feb 21 300 Houston Christian W 74 - 69 69%
 Mon, Feb 23 240 Incarnate Word W 73 - 71 56%
 Sat, Feb 28 188 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 72 26%
 Mon, Mar 2 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 68 - 75 26%
Totals 8 - 20 8 - 13 -6 -1 C- C- C- -5 F+ D- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 1.6 5.4 1.6 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 1.0 7.0 4.9 0.3 13.2 7th
8th 0.9 8.4 9.2 1.2 0.0 19.8 8th
9th 0.4 5.6 10.6 2.3 0.0 19.0 9th
10th 0.1 2.8 8.7 3.3 0.1 15.0 10th
11th 0.0 1.3 5.3 3.3 0.2 10.2 11th
12th 0.6 2.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.1 12th
Total 0.6 3.8 10.4 18.9 23.5 20.4 13.7 6.5 1.9 0.4 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 15.0 0.0 0.4
12-10 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
11-11 6.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 6.4
10-12 13.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 13.6
9-13 20.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 20.3
8-14 23.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 23.4
7-15 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.9
6-16 10.4% 10.4
5-17 3.8% 3.8
4-18 0.6% 0.6
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.9 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%