Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#274
Expected Predictive Rating-8.3#292
Pace63.4#323
Improvement+4.2#11

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#194
First Shot-0.1#174
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#235
Layup/Dunks-7.7#357
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#199
Freethrows+3.2#29
Improvement+1.1#83

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#331
First Shot-4.5#322
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#223
Layups/Dunks-2.9#284
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#55
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#275
Freethrows-0.9#239
Improvement+3.1#14
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.6% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 5.7% 8.8% 2.2%
.500 or above in Conference 36.2% 47.5% 23.4%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 12.6% 7.0% 19.0%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round0.9% 1.4% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 52.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 48 - 710 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 49 @Texas A&M L 68-98 4%     0 - 1 -16.2 -3.5 -10.5
  Thu, Nov 6 146 @North Texas L 53-80 18%     0 - 2 -23.2 -5.3 -22.8
  Tue, Nov 11 196 @North Alabama L 83-87 OT 27%     0 - 3 -3.4 +5.6 -8.7
  Tue, Nov 18 96 @San Francisco L 64-84 10%     0 - 4 -11.6 +3.4 -17.6
  Fri, Nov 21 91 @Grand Canyon L 72-85 9%     0 - 5 -4.3 +6.5 -11.0
  Sat, Nov 29 203 Southern L 73-75 50%     0 - 6 -7.8 -0.5 -7.3
  Fri, Dec 5 71 @McNeese St. L 54-92 7%     0 - 7 0 - 1 -27.1 -9.7 -19.1
  Sun, Dec 7 256 @SE Louisiana W 76-68 36%     1 - 7 1 - 1 +5.7 +9.5 -3.3
  Sat, Dec 13 82 @California L 70-79 7%     1 - 8 +1.3 +4.8 -3.9
  Mon, Dec 29 224 Lamar W 67-66 53%    
  Wed, Dec 31 140 Stephen F. Austin L 69-73 34%    
  Sat, Jan 3 245 New Orleans W 76-74 57%    
  Mon, Jan 5 258 @Nicholls St. L 69-73 37%    
  Sat, Jan 10 215 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-68 51%    
  Mon, Jan 12 208 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73-72 51%    
  Sat, Jan 17 189 @Incarnate Word L 68-75 26%    
  Mon, Jan 19 275 @Houston Christian L 69-72 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 303 East Texas A&M W 74-69 67%    
  Mon, Jan 26 140 @Stephen F. Austin L 66-76 17%    
  Sat, Jan 31 245 @New Orleans L 73-77 36%    
  Mon, Feb 2 258 Nicholls St. W 72-70 59%    
  Sat, Feb 7 303 @East Texas A&M L 71-72 46%    
  Mon, Feb 9 224 @Lamar L 64-69 32%    
  Sat, Feb 14 256 SE Louisiana W 70-68 59%    
  Mon, Feb 16 71 McNeese St. L 65-76 16%    
  Sat, Feb 21 275 Houston Christian W 72-69 61%    
  Mon, Feb 23 189 Incarnate Word L 71-72 46%    
  Sat, Feb 28 215 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66-72 31%    
  Mon, Mar 2 208 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 69-75 30%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 9 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.3 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.7 3.8 1.0 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.0 4.3 1.2 0.1 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.2 1.6 0.1 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.2 2.8 0.3 0.0 10.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.7 3.1 0.6 0.0 10.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.6 2.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 9.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 7.7 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.5 7.4 10.3 11.9 13.0 12.7 10.8 9.4 6.6 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
20-2 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
19-3 83.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-4 64.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
17-5 31.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-6 12.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-7 3.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 0.0% 0.0
20-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-3 0.1% 25.0% 25.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-4 0.3% 10.7% 10.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-5 0.6% 11.9% 11.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
16-6 1.3% 8.5% 8.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
15-7 2.6% 7.6% 7.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.4
14-8 4.4% 4.2% 4.2% 15.5 0.1 0.1 4.2
13-9 6.6% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.5
12-10 9.4% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 9.2
11-11 10.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 10.7
10-12 12.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.6
9-13 13.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.9
8-14 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.9
7-15 10.3% 10.3
6-16 7.4% 7.4
5-17 4.5% 4.5
4-18 2.6% 2.6
3-19 1.1% 1.1
2-20 0.3% 0.3
1-21 0.1% 0.1
0-22
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%