UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.0 #191
Expected Predictive Rating -3.2 #219
Pace 68.0 #211
Improvement +0.2 #172

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #256 C D+ C- F+ C
Defense #135 C B- C C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #224 1.16 #166 -0.9 #215
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #221 0.67 #309 -1.7 #269
Three Pointers 45% #99 1.07 #102 +3.3 #75
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #158 +0.7 #158
Freethrows 0.21 #362 74% #123 0.16 #355
Second Chance 26.6% #290 0.98 #259 0.26 #296
Turnovers 17.1% #230
Total Offense -2.9 #256

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #258 1.21 #256 +0.7 #145
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #156 0.67 #55 +0.7 #145
Three Pointers 43% #113 1.00 #154 -0.7 #211
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #156 +0.7 #155
Freethrows 0.33 #271 72% #153 0.24 #262
Second Chance 30.5% #179 0.89 #25 0.27 #70
Turnovers 17.0% #147
Total Defense +0.9 #135

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #166 -0.5% #119
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.9% #159 -0.9% #171
Possession Length 17.8 #213 17.3 #179
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #274 0.17 #179
Improvement -1.6 #261 +1.8 #78

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 4.0% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 33.3% 47.7% 20.2%
.500 or above in Conference 73.0% 86.3% 61.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round3.1% 3.9% 2.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Away) - 47.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 45 - 9
Quad 410 - 714 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 45 @Baylor L 81 - 96 7% -6  0 - 1 -0 +4 A- F+ C -3 F+ A+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 282 @Southern Utah W 95 - 72 58% +11  1 - 1 +19 +17 A+ D+ D- +1 C+ B+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 59 @Boise St. L 65 - 85 9% -9  1 - 2 -8 -6 B D F -0 C+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 177 @Missouri St. L 67 - 74 36% +2  1 - 3 -5 +2 D- A+ F -8 C- A F
 Mon, Nov 24 5 @Illinois L 73 - 87 2% -8  1 - 4 +10 +9 B- C+ A+ +1 C A+ B
 Wed, Dec 3 107 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 73 20% -8  1 - 5 0 - 1 -6 -6 F+ F A- +0 B B D
 Sun, Dec 7 175 Austin Peay W 63 - 50 58% +0  2 - 5 +9 -9 F A F +18 A+ A+ B-
 Thu, Dec 11 158 Texas Arlington L 50 - 58 53% -0  2 - 6 -11 -10 D F C- -3 C C+ B
 Tue, Dec 16 207 @Lamar W 83 - 72 42% +12  3 - 6 1 - 1 +11 +12 A+ F B -0 D- A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 219 New Orleans L 69 - 85 67% -8  3 - 7 1 - 2 -22 -10 B- F F -13 C F F
 Wed, Dec 31 260 Nicholls St. L 69 - 71 73% -2  3 - 8 1 - 3 -10 -7 F B F -3 C D A+
 Sat, Jan 3 188 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 59 - 63 61% -1  3 - 9 1 - 4 -9 -6 F F B+ -3 C F+ B-
 Mon, Jan 5 240 Incarnate Word W 80 - 67 70% +8  4 - 9 2 - 4 +6 +10 C B+ B- -3 B+ B D+
 Sat, Jan 10 311 @East Texas A&M L 69 - 77 65% -9  4 - 10 2 - 5 -14 +0 B- F+ C- -15 F F C
 Mon, Jan 12 267 @Northwestern St. L 63 - 64 53% +4  4 - 11 2 - 6 -4 -9 F+ F F+ +5 B B B
 Sat, Jan 17 83 McNeese St. W 79 - 76 28% +10  5 - 11 3 - 6 +7 +14 A+ B- A- -7 B A- D+
 Mon, Jan 19 266 SE Louisiana W 68 - 65 74% +4  6 - 11 4 - 6 -6 -1 C F+ A+ -4 D A- D
 Sat, Jan 24 300 @Houston Christian W 68 - 51 62% +8  7 - 11 5 - 6 +12 +1 B+ F C- +13 C- B+ A+
 Mon, Jan 26 188 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 64 - 55 38% +3  8 - 11 6 - 6 +10 +2 D+ C+ C +9 A+ A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 240 @Incarnate Word L 70 - 71 47%
 Mon, Feb 2 300 Houston Christian W 75 - 66 81%
 Sat, Feb 7 219 @New Orleans L 75 - 77 44%
 Mon, Feb 9 260 @Nicholls St. W 73 - 72 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 107 Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 70 39%
 Mon, Feb 16 207 Lamar W 70 - 66 64%
 Sat, Feb 21 266 @SE Louisiana W 68 - 67 53%
 Mon, Feb 23 83 @McNeese St. L 65 - 77 13%
 Sat, Feb 28 311 East Texas A&M W 76 - 66 82%
 Mon, Mar 2 267 Northwestern St. W 75 - 68 74%
Totals 13 - 16 11 - 11 -2 -3 C D+ C- +1 C B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.8 9.4 6.5 1.9 0.2 23.4 3rd
4th 0.4 6.0 12.2 6.8 1.2 0.1 26.6 4th
5th 0.1 3.0 10.2 5.3 0.6 19.2 5th
6th 1.0 6.9 5.2 0.7 0.0 13.8 6th
7th 0.1 3.5 4.7 0.9 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.0 0.7 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.6 2.6 8.1 15.6 23.0 23.0 16.7 7.8 2.2 0.3 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.0%
15-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.3% 11.8% 11.8% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-7 2.2% 10.6% 10.6% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.0
14-8 7.8% 7.4% 7.4% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.2
13-9 16.7% 5.8% 5.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 15.8
12-10 23.0% 3.2% 3.2% 14.9 0.1 0.6 0.1 22.3
11-11 23.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 22.6
10-12 15.6% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 15.5
9-13 8.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 8.1
8-14 2.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.6
7-15 0.6% 0.6
6-16 0.0% 0.0
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 14.7 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%