Nicholls St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.3 #260
Expected Predictive Rating -4.4 #230
Pace 70.8 #126
Improvement +0.1 #175

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #257 C- D C D+ C+
Defense #246 F+ D+ A D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #238 1.12 #226 -2.0 #251
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #278 0.59 #350 -3.0 #322
Three Pointers 48% #53 1.04 #153 +3.8 #58
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #215 -1.2 #214
Freethrows 0.29 #235 65% #356 0.19 #302
Second Chance 25.9% #303 0.97 #275 0.25 #316
Turnovers 16.2% #161
Total Offense -3.0 #257

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #100 1.32 #347 -5.3 #344
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #239 0.81 #272 +0.3 #160
Three Pointers 40% #214 1.13 #324 -1.8 #272
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #350 -6.8 #350
Freethrows 0.35 #313 76% #344 0.27 #334
Second Chance 35.1% #327 1.01 #130 0.36 #272
Turnovers 21.4% #11
Total Defense -2.3 #246

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #130 1.0% #265
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.1% #229 12.2% #356
Possession Length 17.2 #155 16.9 #105
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #72 0.20 #284
Improvement +0.3 #166 -0.1 #197

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.2% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.7
.500 or above 1.3% 2.3% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 60.9% 75.4% 44.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.0% 0.8%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Texas A&M (Away) - 52.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 33 - 54 - 13
Quad 48 - 712 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 27 @Kentucky L 51 - 77 3% -15  0 - 1 -8 -13 F F B- +5 D+ A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 7 312 @Eastern Illinois L 57 - 65 52% -5  0 - 2 -14 -14 F F B +0 B- F A-
 Wed, Nov 12 169 @Valparaiso L 63 - 68 24% -3  0 - 3 -3 +0 C A- F -4 D+ C+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 101 @Murray St. L 79 - 99 11% -11  0 - 4 -12 +1 D+ A- F -11 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 63 @Oklahoma St. L 81 - 95 6% -12  0 - 5 -2 +1 D+ B- C- -1 F+ A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 174 @Tulane L 72 - 82 25% -7  0 - 6 -8 +1 B+ F B- -9 F A- B+
 Tue, Dec 2 53 @Creighton L 76 - 96 5% -15  0 - 7 -7 +9 A- F A+ -17 F F+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 240 Incarnate Word W 74 - 67 58% +3  1 - 7 1 - 0 -0 +3 C+ F A -3 A+ F B
 Wed, Dec 17 300 Houston Christian W 79 - 64 71% +11  2 - 7 2 - 0 +4 -0 D D+ A+ +4 D+ C A+
 Sun, Dec 21 131 @Pacific L 82 - 95 17% -7  2 - 8 -8 +9 A+ F F -17 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 188 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76 - 71 27% +3  3 - 8 3 - 0 +6 +16 A- A+ C+ -9 F D A+
 Wed, Dec 31 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 71 - 69 27% +2  4 - 8 4 - 0 +3 +1 C- B- F +2 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 311 East Texas A&M W 80 - 58 74% +12  5 - 8 5 - 0 +10 -0 C- D+ D +9 C+ C A+
 Mon, Jan 5 267 Northwestern St. W 74 - 72 64% +2  6 - 8 6 - 0 -7 -4 C- F B -3 C F+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 219 @New Orleans W 90 - 77 32% +7  7 - 8 7 - 0 +13 +25 A+ B+ B -11 F F A
 Mon, Jan 12 83 @McNeese St. L 68 - 94 8% -15  7 - 9 7 - 1 -16 -5 B- F D -9 F+ D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 207 Lamar L 80 - 90 52% -5  7 - 10 7 - 2 -16 +7 C B- C- -23 F F A
 Mon, Jan 19 107 Stephen F. Austin L 62 - 79 27% -16  7 - 11 7 - 3 -16 -5 F C C -12 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 266 @SE Louisiana L 61 - 67 40% -2  7 - 12 7 - 4 -9 -10 F F C +1 D+ B- A+
 Tue, Jan 27 219 New Orleans L 62 - 80 55% -9  7 - 13 7 - 5 -24 -20 F F+ F -4 C F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 311 @East Texas A&M W 74 - 73 52%
 Mon, Feb 2 267 @Northwestern St. L 73 - 75 41%
 Sat, Feb 7 188 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 70 - 71 49%
 Mon, Feb 9 191 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 73 49%
 Sat, Feb 14 240 @Incarnate Word L 71 - 75 36%
 Mon, Feb 16 300 @Houston Christian L 73 - 74 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 107 @Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 78 13%
 Mon, Feb 23 207 @Lamar L 68 - 73 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 266 SE Louisiana W 72 - 68 63%
 Mon, Mar 2 83 McNeese St. L 70 - 79 19%
Totals 11 - 19 11 - 11 -5 -3 C- D C -2 F+ D+ A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.3 7.0 4.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 18.0 3rd
4th 0.4 5.1 9.6 4.3 0.5 0.0 19.8 4th
5th 0.1 3.8 10.6 4.9 0.5 0.0 19.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 9.1 5.6 0.6 0.0 17.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 6.0 6.2 0.8 0.0 13.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.9 4.3 0.7 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.2 2.0 0.8 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 1.0 5.0 13.0 20.2 22.7 19.4 11.7 5.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 0.0%
16-6 1.6% 0.0    0.0
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 0.0% 0.0
16-6 0.3% 7.9% 7.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-7 1.7% 4.5% 4.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
14-8 5.0% 2.8% 2.8% 15.4 0.1 0.1 4.9
13-9 11.7% 2.6% 2.6% 15.8 0.1 0.2 11.4
12-10 19.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 19.2
11-11 22.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 22.6
10-12 20.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 20.2
9-13 13.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.9
8-14 5.0% 5.0
7-15 1.0% 1.0
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.7 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%