Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#189
Expected Predictive Rating-3.5#227
Pace62.8#335
Improvement+0.7#133

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#116
First Shot+0.2#167
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#67
Layup/Dunks-2.2#261
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#32
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#210
Freethrows+0.2#172
Improvement+0.4#143

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#303
First Shot-3.7#302
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#204
Layups/Dunks-4.3#319
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#254
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#44
Freethrows-2.8#331
Improvement+0.3#159
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 11.6% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.4 14.2
.500 or above 49.8% 75.6% 47.8%
.500 or above in Conference 68.7% 81.6% 67.7%
Conference Champion 3.0% 5.4% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 1.1% 3.2%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round5.7% 11.6% 5.3%
Second Round0.3% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TCU (Away) - 7.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 32 - 53 - 10
Quad 411 - 614 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 69 @Colorado St. L 64-98 12%     0 - 1 -23.1 -3.7 -21.7
  Sun, Nov 16 27 @Indiana L 61-69 4%     0 - 2 +9.8 +2.5 +6.7
  Thu, Nov 20 317 Southern Indiana W 87-81 76%     1 - 2 -3.2 +8.2 -11.6
  Sat, Nov 22 95 High Point L 80-91 24%     1 - 3 -5.6 +12.1 -18.4
  Mon, Dec 1 71 McNeese St. W 71-67 26%     2 - 3 1 - 0 +8.9 +6.6 +2.6
  Sat, Dec 6 258 @Nicholls St. L 67-74 52%     2 - 4 1 - 1 -9.4 -0.5 -9.4
  Mon, Dec 8 245 @New Orleans L 83-84 50%     2 - 5 1 - 2 -2.8 +9.4 -12.3
  Mon, Dec 15 45 @TCU L 63-79 7%    
  Sat, Dec 20 270 Northern Arizona W 74-67 75%    
  Tue, Dec 30 256 SE Louisiana W 73-66 73%    
  Sat, Jan 3 275 Houston Christian W 74-67 75%    
  Mon, Jan 5 208 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 72-74 44%    
  Sat, Jan 10 224 @Lamar L 66-67 46%    
  Mon, Jan 12 140 @Stephen F. Austin L 68-74 29%    
  Sat, Jan 17 274 Northwestern St. W 75-68 74%    
  Mon, Jan 19 303 East Texas A&M W 77-68 80%    
  Sat, Jan 24 215 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 72-68 66%    
  Mon, Jan 26 275 @Houston Christian W 71-70 54%    
  Sat, Jan 31 208 UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-71 64%    
  Mon, Feb 2 215 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69-71 45%    
  Sat, Feb 7 71 @McNeese St. L 64-77 13%    
  Mon, Feb 9 256 @SE Louisiana W 70-69 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 258 Nicholls St. W 75-68 73%    
  Mon, Feb 16 245 New Orleans W 79-73 70%    
  Sat, Feb 21 303 @East Texas A&M W 74-71 61%    
  Mon, Feb 23 274 @Northwestern St. W 72-71 54%    
  Sat, Feb 28 224 Lamar W 69-64 67%    
  Mon, Mar 2 140 Stephen F. Austin L 71-72 49%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 12 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 3.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.4 4.0 3.5 1.9 0.6 0.0 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.6 5.9 3.9 1.5 0.2 17.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.0 5.6 2.6 0.5 0.0 15.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.5 5.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.4 4.7 1.5 0.1 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.3 1.5 0.2 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.4 1.9 0.2 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.5 5.7 8.0 10.7 12.4 13.2 12.9 11.2 8.7 5.6 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
19-3 88.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1
18-4 56.2% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
17-5 28.5% 0.8    0.4 0.4 0.1
16-6 11.6% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-7 3.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-8 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-3 0.4% 39.1% 39.1% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
18-4 1.3% 30.8% 30.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9
17-5 2.9% 24.1% 24.1% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.2
16-6 5.6% 17.9% 17.9% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.6
15-7 8.7% 13.6% 13.6% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 7.5
14-8 11.2% 8.7% 8.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 10.2
13-9 12.9% 4.4% 4.4% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 12.3
12-10 13.2% 3.2% 3.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 12.8
11-11 12.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 12.2
10-12 10.7% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.6
9-13 8.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.0
8-14 5.7% 5.7
7-15 3.5% 3.5
6-16 2.1% 2.1
5-17 0.9% 0.9
4-18 0.4% 0.4
3-19 0.1% 0.1
2-20 0.0% 0.0
1-21 0.0% 0.0
0-22
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.0 1.7 0.5 94.2 0.0%