Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
203 Southern 25.8%   16   1 - 6 0 - 0 14 - 15 13 - 6 -2.8      -2.7 240 -0.1 170 80.3 11 -5.6 248 0.0 1
223 Bethune-Cookman 20.3%   2 - 6 0 - 0 14 - 16 11 - 6 -3.6      -1.6 210 -2.1 241 68.0 221 -6.3 256 0.0 1
264 Alabama St. 13.2%   2 - 7 0 - 0 13 - 17 11 - 6 -5.6      -1.0 193 -4.6 327 68.9 201 -7.6 281 0.0 1
284 Grambling St. 9.3%   2 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 8 -6.7      -5.7 324 -1.0 202 65.9 279 -6.6 263 0.0 1
290 Alabama A&M 8.6%   3 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -7.2      -5.3 310 -1.9 236 66.6 259 -2.1 200 0.0 1
306 Texas Southern 6.7%   0 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 17 9 - 8 -8.2      -5.4 314 -2.8 267 73.6 69 -13.8 342 0.0 1
316 Jackson St. 4.9%   1 - 9 0 - 0 11 - 20 9 - 9 -9.1      -7.5 345 -1.7 227 71.0 141 -7.1 272 0.0 1
327 Prairie View 4.1%   1 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 9 -9.8      -5.8 328 -4.0 309 76.0 39 -11.4 322 0.0 1
331 Alcorn St. 3.4%   1 - 9 0 - 0 10 - 21 9 - 10 -10.4      -6.0 330 -4.5 324 72.7 93 -7.9 287 0.0 1
341 Florida A&M 2.3%   0 - 5 0 - 0 8 - 19 7 - 10 -11.4      -6.6 337 -4.8 330 71.8 121 -12.5 330 0.0 1
351 Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.0%   1 - 10 0 - 0 8 - 21 7 - 10 -12.7      -7.8 351 -5.0 333 80.2 12 -6.4 260 0.0 1
365 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   0 - 9 0 - 0 2 - 29 2 - 15 -22.7      -13.6 365 -9.0 363 70.8 150 -18.9 359 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 10 203 Southern 83 239 Texas St. 86   
Wed, Dec 10 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff 84 83 Tulsa 117   
Wed, Dec 10 8 Houston 80 316 Jackson St. 38   
Thu, Dec 11 264 Alabama St. 77 50 Missouri 85   
Sat, Dec 13 327 Prairie View 85 278 South Dakota 97   
Sat, Dec 13 316 Jackson St. 53 58 Northwestern 93   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 14 223 Bethune-Cookman 68 50 Missouri 85 94%   
Sun, Dec 14 103 Minnesota 77 306 Texas Southern 61 92%   
Mon, Dec 15 290 Alabama A&M 68 196 North Alabama 70 57%   
Tue, Dec 16 127 California Baptist 79 203 Southern 71 78%   
Tue, Dec 16 365 Mississippi Valley 64 199 Tarleton St. 81 94%   
Wed, Dec 17 223 Bethune-Cookman 68 42 Saint Louis 86 95%   
Wed, Dec 17 264 Alabama St. 65 78 Cincinnati 81 92%   
Wed, Dec 17 341 Florida A&M 70 291 Jacksonville 71 55%   
Wed, Dec 17 290 Alabama A&M 60 60 Mississippi 77 93%   
Wed, Dec 17 29 North Carolina St. 91 306 Texas Southern 66 98%   
Thu, Dec 18 284 Grambling St. 63 234 Norfolk St. 66 60%   
Thu, Dec 18 230 Hampton 71 316 Jackson St. 65 69%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Southern 2.5 47.4 17.7 10.7 7.5 5.2 3.8 2.8 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 3.6 21.4 21.1 15.3 11.9 9.0 7.2 5.4 3.9 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.0
Alabama St. 4.2 14.3 17.8 15.8 13.6 10.9 8.6 6.8 5.1 3.6 2.3 1.1 0.1
Grambling St. 5.8 6.4 9.0 10.1 11.0 11.2 11.1 10.8 10.2 8.9 6.7 4.2 0.3
Alabama A&M 4.8 11.9 13.4 13.1 12.1 10.9 9.9 8.7 7.4 5.8 4.1 2.6 0.2
Texas Southern 6.0 5.6 8.5 9.9 10.7 10.5 10.6 10.4 9.9 9.2 8.4 5.9 0.5
Jackson St. 5.6 6.6 10.0 11.3 11.9 11.6 11.1 10.2 9.2 7.8 5.9 3.9 0.4
Prairie View 6.6 3.3 6.1 7.6 9.1 10.3 10.8 11.7 11.9 11.6 9.9 6.9 0.8
Alcorn St. 6.1 5.8 8.0 9.1 9.9 10.5 10.6 10.8 10.6 9.8 8.2 6.1 0.7
Florida A&M 8.1 1.5 2.9 3.9 4.7 5.9 7.2 8.8 11.2 13.9 17.5 18.9 3.5
Arkansas Pine Bluff 8.5 0.5 1.5 2.7 3.8 5.3 7.1 9.2 12.0 15.3 19.4 20.0 3.3
Mississippi Valley 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 3.7 13.5 80.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Southern 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.0 5.0 7.2 10.5 12.4 14.1 13.8 12.2 9.6 5.8 2.7
Bethune-Cookman 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 3.6 6.2 9.7 12.7 14.9 15.5 14.1 10.6 6.3 2.7 0.6
Alabama St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.8 5.3 8.1 11.6 14.6 15.9 14.9 11.6 7.4 4.1 1.4 0.3
Grambling St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.8 7.9 10.7 13.4 14.4 14.5 12.0 8.3 5.5 3.1 1.2 0.4 0.0
Alabama A&M 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.8 4.9 8.0 10.6 12.9 14.1 13.9 11.7 8.8 5.7 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.0
Texas Southern 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.2 5.5 8.6 10.9 13.3 14.1 13.2 11.1 8.4 5.4 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.1
Jackson St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 4.0 6.7 10.1 12.9 14.4 14.6 12.7 9.6 6.2 3.6 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
Prairie View 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 4.0 6.9 10.7 13.1 14.8 14.3 12.6 9.3 6.0 3.4 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Alcorn St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.1 6.1 8.8 11.8 13.6 13.9 12.9 10.3 7.6 5.0 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
Florida A&M 7 - 11 0.3 1.4 3.5 6.3 10.0 12.8 14.0 13.7 12.0 9.6 7.1 4.6 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 7 - 11 0.1 0.8 2.8 6.3 10.8 15.0 15.9 15.5 12.6 9.0 5.7 3.1 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 2 - 16 20.2 28.4 23.6 14.7 7.8 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Southern 47.4% 36.0 8.8 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 21.4% 12.9 6.3 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Alabama St. 14.3% 8.3 4.3 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Grambling St. 6.4% 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Alabama A&M 11.9% 6.6 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Texas Southern 5.6% 2.9 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Jackson St. 6.6% 3.3 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
Prairie View 3.3% 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alcorn St. 5.8% 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida A&M 1.5% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Southern 26.2% 26.2% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 7.0 15.9 73.8 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 20.3% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.1 4.7 14.2 79.7 0.0%
Alabama St. 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 11.1 86.8 0.0%
Grambling St. 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.1 8.0 90.7 0.0%
Alabama A&M 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.3 7.1 91.4 0.0%
Texas Southern 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.3 93.3 0.0%
Jackson St. 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.1 4.8 95.1 0.0%
Prairie View 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 4.0 95.9 0.0%
Alcorn St. 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 3.3 96.6 0.0%
Florida A&M 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.2 97.7 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Southern 26.2% 9.3% 22.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 20.3% 8.8% 16.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 13.2% 8.3% 9.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 9.3% 5.8% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 8.6% 4.7% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 6.7% 5.3% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 4.9% 4.3% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 4.1% 3.5% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 3.4% 3.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 2.3% 2.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 73.0% 0.7 27.0 73.0
2nd Round 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0