Mississippi Valley
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -24.1 #365
Expected Predictive Rating -25.3 #365
Pace 68.1 #202
Improvement -1.2 #246

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #365 F+ D- D D- F
Defense #358 F F C F+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #361 1.06 #291 -7.4 #357
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% #1 0.72 #234 +7.0 #2
Three Pointers 31% #349 0.83 #355 -8.0 #360
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #360 -8.4 #360
Freethrows 0.22 #356 77% #48 0.17 #334
Second Chance 23.3% #344 0.93 #327 0.22 #355
Turnovers 18.8% #320
Total Offense -16.2 #365

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #299 1.36 #361 -1.0 #213
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #345 0.76 #185 +2.3 #30
Three Pointers 51% #6 1.21 #361 -10.3 #364
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #362 -8.9 #362
Freethrows 0.37 #341 75% #312 0.28 #349
Second Chance 39.4% #361 1.18 #329 0.47 #362
Turnovers 16.3% #193
Total Defense -7.9 #358

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -6.6% #365 1.0% #258
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.6% #334 16.3% #363
Possession Length 19.7 #352 16.8 #85
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #244 0.25 #355
Improvement -3.3 #343 +2.1 #61

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 99.8% 98.1% 99.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Away) - 1.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 30 - 10 - 9
Quad 41 - 211 - 30


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 118 @UAB L 55 - 106 1% -29  0 - 1 -45 -25 F D- F -12 D F D+
 Fri, Nov 7 101 @Murray St. L 60 - 108 1% -21  0 - 2 -40 -18 F F F -17 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 99 @Hawaii L 56 - 88 1% -18  0 - 3 -24 -6 D D B -20 F F D+
 Fri, Nov 14 223 Utah Tech L 75 - 81 2OT 4% -3  0 - 4 -10 -4 C F C -5 C- B- C-
 Sat, Nov 15 327 Manhattan L 73 - 80 10% -5  0 - 5 -17 -0 C- A+ F -18 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 301 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 70 - 86 5% -12  0 - 6 -21 -9 C- F B- -11 C F F+
 Tue, Nov 25 30 @Texas A&M L 84 - 120 0% -23  0 - 7 -18 +3 A+ D- F -15 F+ F+ C+
 Wed, Dec 3 361 @Louisiana Monroe L 52 - 66 15% -10  0 - 8 -27 -23 F F C- -5 D- C- B-
 Mon, Dec 8 88 @Kansas St. L 49 - 108 1% -35  0 - 9 -50 -23 F F F -22 F F B+
 Tue, Dec 16 187 Tarleton St. L 64 - 88 5% -9  0 - 10 -29 -15 B- C F -12 F+ C B+
 Fri, Dec 19 106 @Florida St. L 49 - 96 1% -32  0 - 11 -40 -24 F F F -13 D D C
 Mon, Dec 22 56 @West Virginia L 51 - 86 0% -22  0 - 12 -22 -4 F C+ C+ -25 F F F
 Mon, Dec 29 52 @Oklahoma L 69 - 93 0% -9  0 - 13 -11 +10 A C- C -24 F F C
 Sat, Jan 3 318 Alabama St. L 69 - 89 14% -12  0 - 14 0 - 1 -32 -13 D F F -18 F D+ A
 Mon, Jan 5 298 Alabama A&M L 51 - 71 11% -12  0 - 15 0 - 2 -31 -27 F F F -4 B F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 345 @Prairie View L 69 - 70 9% +0  0 - 16 0 - 3 -10 -8 D- D- F -2 D A- C+
 Mon, Jan 12 308 @Texas Southern L 51 - 84 5% -19  0 - 17 0 - 4 -39 -24 F C- F -16 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 248 Bethune-Cookman L 63 - 79 7% -12  0 - 18 0 - 5 -24 -10 F C+ A+ -15 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 19 315 Florida A&M L 48 - 62 14% -14  0 - 19 0 - 6 -26 -25 F F C -3 C F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 254 @Southern L 59 - 81 2%
 Sat, Jan 31 325 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 68 - 79 16%
 Sat, Feb 7 336 Jackson St. L 67 - 77 18%
 Mon, Feb 9 350 Alcorn St. L 65 - 74 21%
 Sat, Feb 14 298 @Alabama A&M L 58 - 77 3%
 Mon, Feb 16 318 @Alabama St. L 63 - 81 5%
 Thu, Feb 19 345 @Prairie View L 65 - 80 8%
 Sat, Feb 21 308 Texas Southern L 66 - 79 12%
 Mon, Feb 23 285 @Grambling St. L 58 - 78 3%
 Sat, Feb 28 325 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 65 - 82 6%
 Tue, Mar 3 350 @Alcorn St. L 62 - 77 9%
 Thu, Mar 5 336 @Jackson St. L 64 - 80 7%
Totals 1 - 30 1 - 16 -24 -16 F+ D- D -8 F F C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 38.5 35.7 18.0 5.6 1.2 0.1 99.1 12th
Total 38.5 35.7 18.0 5.9 1.5 0.3 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 1.5% 1.5
3-15 5.9% 5.9
2-16 18.0% 18.0
1-17 35.7% 35.7
0-18 38.5% 38.5
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 34.6%