Florida A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.3 #315
Expected Predictive Rating -7.5 #286
Pace 68.2 #198
Improvement +3.8 #31

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #331 D+ D F+ D D+
Defense #255 D+ C- C D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #257 1.21 #119 -0.7 #200
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #106 0.68 #299 +0.4 #156
Three Pointers 40% #198 0.87 #335 -3.4 #299
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #289 -3.7 #287
Freethrows 0.27 #271 65% #355 0.18 #317
Second Chance 27.0% #276 0.89 #340 0.24 #332
Turnovers 20.2% #350
Total Offense -6.7 #331

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #66 1.22 #266 -4.0 #306
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #271 0.80 #249 +0.7 #144
Three Pointers 39% #233 1.05 #235 +0.3 #165
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #275 -3.0 #276
Freethrows 0.34 #297 77% #352 0.26 #329
Second Chance 31.4% #221 1.07 #224 0.34 #233
Turnovers 16.9% #149
Total Defense -2.6 #255

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #272 1.4% #297
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.0% #284 4.4% #262
Possession Length 18.0 #247 16.7 #73
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #271 0.22 #325
Improvement +1.5 #105 +2.4 #54

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.7% 9.6% 6.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 16.1% 28.5% 9.8%
.500 or above in Conference 81.3% 93.4% 75.1%
Conference Champion 14.2% 25.3% 8.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.4% 7.5% 5.9%
First Round3.9% 5.3% 3.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Away) - 33.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 412 - 912 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 69 @South Florida L 67 - 102 4% -15  0 - 1 -24 -9 F B F -10 D- C B+
 Sat, Nov 8 156 Kennesaw St. L 72 - 92 26% -9  0 - 2 -23 -13 F D C -7 F A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 49 @Central Florida L 60 - 97 3% -22  0 - 3 -23 -11 D+ F F -10 F D- A+
 Mon, Nov 17 28 @Georgia L 57 - 87 1% -20  0 - 4 -12 -12 C F+ F +3 A+ F B+
 Tue, Dec 2 283 @Jacksonville L 82 - 85 OT 31% +0  0 - 5 -7 +4 A+ D- F -11 D+ C- F
 Wed, Dec 17 283 Jacksonville W 72 - 65 54% +9  1 - 5 -3 +1 C F B -3 D A+ B-
 Fri, Dec 19 187 @Tarleton St. L 54 - 78 16% -14  1 - 6 -23 -23 F F F +3 B- F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 44 @TCU L 56 - 80 2% -5  1 - 7 -9 -4 B- F A+ -7 C C C+
 Sun, Dec 28 113 @Georgia Tech L 65 - 89 8% -17  1 - 8 -18 -6 D+ F+ C+ -10 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 248 @Bethune-Cookman L 83 - 87 24% -4  1 - 9 0 - 1 -6 +8 C+ C D+ -13 F C D
 Sat, Jan 10 254 Southern W 67 - 59 46% +4  2 - 9 1 - 1 -0 -5 F+ D+ F +5 C A+ B+
 Mon, Jan 12 285 Grambling St. W 91 - 84 54% +3  3 - 9 2 - 1 -3 +12 B+ B+ D+ -16 D- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 325 @Arkansas Pine Bluff W 71 - 67 42% +1  4 - 9 3 - 1 -3 -1 C+ C- F -2 C+ F+ C+
 Mon, Jan 19 365 @Mississippi Valley W 62 - 48 86% +14  5 - 9 4 - 1 -7 -12 F D F +6 A A C-
 Sat, Jan 24 350 Alcorn St. W 66 - 58 72% -0  6 - 9 5 - 1 -7 -10 C- B- F +3 C B A+
 Mon, Jan 26 336 Jackson St. L 65 - 66 68% +3  6 - 10 5 - 2 -15 -6 D- F C+ -9 C- F C
 Sat, Jan 31 298 @Alabama A&M L 67 - 72 34%
 Mon, Feb 2 318 @Alabama St. L 72 - 75 39%
 Sat, Feb 7 308 Texas Southern W 75 - 73 58%
 Mon, Feb 9 345 Prairie View W 78 - 72 70%
 Sat, Feb 14 336 @Jackson St. L 74 - 75 46%
 Mon, Feb 16 350 @Alcorn St. W 72 - 71 50%
 Thu, Feb 19 298 Alabama A&M W 70 - 69 55%
 Thu, Feb 19 318 Alabama St. W 75 - 72 62%
 Thu, Feb 26 254 @Southern L 69 - 76 25%
 Sat, Feb 28 285 @Grambling St. L 67 - 72 32%
 Thu, Mar 5 248 Bethune-Cookman L 72 - 73 45%
Totals 11 - 16 10 - 8 -9 -7 D+ D F+ -3 D+ C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.8 4.3 5.5 2.7 0.7 0.1 14.2 1st
2nd 0.6 5.9 6.6 1.7 0.1 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.7 8.7 1.9 0.1 14.4 3rd
4th 0.8 8.7 3.3 0.1 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 4.5 6.2 0.4 11.1 5th
6th 0.9 7.4 1.5 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.1 3.6 4.1 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.6 0.6 6.1 8th
9th 0.2 2.2 1.9 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.2 3.1 10th
11th 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.3 1.6 5.6 11.2 17.5 20.8 19.1 12.9 7.3 2.9 0.7 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
14-4 95.6% 2.7    2.2 0.5 0.0
13-5 75.3% 5.5    2.8 2.2 0.5 0.0
12-6 33.4% 4.3    0.8 1.8 1.4 0.4 0.0
11-7 4.4% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.2% 14.2 6.6 4.7 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 16.7% 16.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.7% 22.2% 22.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6
14-4 2.9% 20.9% 20.9% 15.9 0.1 0.5 2.3
13-5 7.3% 16.4% 16.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2 6.1
12-6 12.9% 11.1% 11.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4 11.5
11-7 19.1% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 1.8 17.3
10-8 20.8% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.0 1.5 19.2
9-9 17.5% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.9 16.7
8-10 11.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 11.1
7-11 5.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.6
6-12 1.6% 1.6
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 16.0 92.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%