Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.5 #318
Expected Predictive Rating -11.0 #331
Pace 72.6 #80
Improvement -5.5 #354

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #295 D D+ C- C- C-
Defense #319 D D- C+ D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #189 1.05 #297 -2.3 #263
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #108 0.69 #288 +0.5 #154
Three Pointers 38% #243 0.97 #237 -2.4 #262
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #303 -4.2 #303
Freethrows 0.30 #212 70% #260 0.21 #219
Second Chance 30.5% #189 0.89 #344 0.27 #275
Turnovers 17.0% #220
Total Offense -4.5 #295

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #183 1.29 #325 -2.6 #267
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #320 0.72 #122 +2.2 #34
Three Pointers 46% #57 1.12 #307 -4.7 #337
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #328 -5.2 #327
Freethrows 0.36 #322 76% #341 0.27 #341
Second Chance 35.5% #335 1.15 #309 0.41 #346
Turnovers 17.5% #110
Total Defense -5.0 #319

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #251 1.3% #295
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.4% #301 8.6% #324
Possession Length 17.3 #160 16.7 #74
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #96 0.26 #361
Improvement -5.3 #360 -0.2 #204

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 5.5% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.7% 1.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 34.9% 52.1% 22.0%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four3.8% 5.3% 2.6%
First Round2.0% 2.9% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bethune-Cookman (Home) - 43.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 30 - 21 - 9
Quad 49 - 1210 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 106 @Florida St. L 64 - 101 7% -20  0 - 1 -30 -13 F C D -13 C- F A-
 Tue, Nov 11 118 @UAB W 77 - 74 8% +4  1 - 1 +9 +2 C D B +6 B C+ A-
 Mon, Nov 17 82 @Colorado L 66 - 94 5% -19  1 - 2 -18 -5 D- D+ C -13 D- D- B-
 Wed, Nov 19 347 @Air Force L 64 - 66 48% +2  1 - 3 -11 -7 F+ F C- -4 D- F A
 Fri, Nov 21 340 IU Indianapolis W 101 - 80 58% +9  2 - 3 +10 +8 B+ D+ C+ -1 F A A+
 Sun, Nov 23 264 SIU Edwardsville L 68 - 83 35% -2  2 - 4 -21 -1 F+ D+ B- -21 F D- F
 Wed, Nov 26 43 @New Mexico L 87 - 93 2% +6  2 - 5 +9 +20 A+ A+ F+ -11 F B- C+
 Sun, Dec 7 229 @Tennessee Martin L 64 - 74 21% +12  2 - 6 -11 -3 B- F F+ -9 C D A+
 Thu, Dec 11 54 @Missouri L 77 - 85 3% -11  2 - 7 +5 +19 A- A A+ -15 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 55 @Cincinnati L 51 - 88 3% -21  2 - 8 -24 -10 F+ F A- -14 F+ C F
 Mon, Dec 22 103 @Memphis L 67 - 88 6% -13  2 - 9 -13 -1 D- B D -11 F C A+
 Mon, Dec 29 85 @Mississippi St. L 56 - 94 5% -18  2 - 10 -28 -11 F F D- -18 F+ F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 365 @Mississippi Valley W 89 - 69 86% +12  3 - 10 1 - 0 -1 +6 C+ F F -8 F C A+
 Mon, Jan 5 325 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 79 - 90 41% -6  3 - 11 1 - 1 -18 -3 D F C+ -15 F D B
 Sat, Jan 10 336 Jackson St. L 64 - 75 68% -7  3 - 12 1 - 2 -25 -21 F C- F -4 B D+ C
 Mon, Jan 12 350 Alcorn St. W 81 - 66 72% +6  4 - 12 2 - 2 -0 -0 C- D+ F -1 A+ F C-
 Mon, Jan 19 298 Alabama A&M L 69 - 73 43% -0  4 - 13 2 - 3 -12 -8 D+ A F -3 C+ D+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 345 @Prairie View W 95 - 80 48% +12  5 - 13 3 - 3 +6 +3 B+ D B- +1 C+ F A+
 Tue, Jan 27 308 @Texas Southern L 64 - 96 35% -16  5 - 14 3 - 4 -38 -15 F D- C+ -21 F D- C-
 Sat, Jan 31 248 Bethune-Cookman L 76 - 78 43%
 Mon, Feb 2 315 Florida A&M W 75 - 72 61%
 Sat, Feb 7 285 @Grambling St. L 72 - 77 32%
 Mon, Feb 9 254 @Southern L 74 - 81 25%
 Sat, Feb 14 325 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82 - 78 64%
 Mon, Feb 16 365 Mississippi Valley W 81 - 63 95%
 Thu, Feb 19 315 @Florida A&M L 72 - 75 38%
 Thu, Feb 19 248 @Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 81 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 298 @Alabama A&M L 71 - 76 33%
 Tue, Mar 3 254 Southern L 77 - 78 45%
 Thu, Mar 5 285 Grambling St. W 75 - 74 53%
Totals 10 - 20 8 - 9 -9 -4 D D+ C- -5 D D- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 1st
2nd 0.3 1.8 0.6 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.3 1.8 0.1 4.2 3rd
4th 0.8 4.6 0.5 0.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.1 4.5 3.0 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 1.5 7.8 0.6 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 6.5 4.4 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 3.5 9.7 0.8 14.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 2.2 9.5 5.1 0.0 16.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 7.0 6.7 0.5 16.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 3.9 4.5 0.9 0.0 10.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.1 1.3 5.7 13.8 20.9 23.3 18.4 10.9 4.4 1.1 0.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 87.1% 0.1    0.1 0.1
12-6 40.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 7.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.2% 16.1% 16.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 1.1% 17.0% 17.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 0.9
11-7 4.4% 13.5% 13.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6 3.8
10-8 10.9% 11.8% 11.8% 16.0 1.3 9.6
9-9 18.4% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 1.4 17.0
8-10 23.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 22.9
7-11 20.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.9
6-12 13.8% 13.8
5-13 5.7% 5.7
4-14 1.3% 1.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 16.0 96.1 0.0%