Texas Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.5 #308
Expected Predictive Rating -12.9 #344
Pace 73.2 #69
Improvement +3.9 #30

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #276 D+ C- C C D+
Defense #312 D F+ D+ D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #144 1.13 #202 +0.3 #167
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #61 0.71 #241 +1.9 #83
Three Pointers 33% #330 0.95 #270 -5.1 #330
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #265 -3.0 #265
Freethrows 0.30 #204 71% #233 0.21 #210
Second Chance 26.2% #300 1.09 #120 0.28 #251
Turnovers 16.7% #194
Total Offense -3.7 #276

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #147 1.26 #303 -2.9 #276
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #362 0.86 #321 +2.4 #26
Three Pointers 47% #33 1.03 #199 -3.5 #314
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #306 -4.0 #305
Freethrows 0.37 #345 72% #191 0.27 #339
Second Chance 32.5% #268 1.26 #358 0.41 #349
Turnovers 14.9% #280
Total Defense -4.8 #312

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #286 2.2% #351
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.5% #251 5.5% #282
Possession Length 17.3 #171 16.5 #54
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #98 0.20 #280
Improvement +2.7 #51 +1.2 #109

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.4% 9.6% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 3.5% 5.7% 1.0%
.500 or above in Conference 59.1% 74.8% 42.3%
Conference Champion 2.7% 4.5% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.0% 8.8% 5.0%
First Round4.2% 5.5% 2.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Away) - 51.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 410 - 1110 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 11 @Gonzaga L 43 - 98 1% -20  0 - 1 -32 -20 F C D- -10 C F A-
 Thu, Nov 6 30 @Texas A&M L 70 - 104 2% -12  0 - 2 -16 -1 B C+ F -12 F+ D+ F+
 Wed, Nov 12 239 Samford L 90 - 93 OT 46% +1  0 - 3 -10 +3 A- F A -13 C- F C
 Sat, Nov 15 275 @Texas St. L 67 - 77 31% -12  0 - 4 -13 -7 D D F+ -7 D+ F A-
 Thu, Nov 20 12 @Vanderbilt L 74 - 109 1% -24  0 - 5 -13 +7 A+ F C -17 D F C
 Sat, Dec 6 117 Sam Houston St. L 70 - 82 21% -6  0 - 6 -12 -11 F C C- +1 A B- C+
 Sun, Dec 14 76 @Minnesota L 53 - 89 5% -20  0 - 7 -25 -14 F+ D- F -12 F C+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 24 @North Carolina St. L 72 - 108 1% -24  0 - 8 -17 +6 F+ A+ B+ -23 F+ F D
 Mon, Dec 22 252 Abilene Christian L 68 - 75 48% +2  0 - 9 -15 -6 D+ D+ C -9 D+ D C+
 Sat, Jan 3 254 @Southern L 73 - 84 27% -8  0 - 10 0 - 1 -13 -7 F C- D- -5 F C+ D+
 Mon, Jan 5 285 @Grambling St. L 67 - 84 34% -9  0 - 11 0 - 2 -21 -6 F A+ D -16 F F D-
 Sat, Jan 10 325 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 66 - 74 68% -8  0 - 12 0 - 3 -21 -13 F F C -9 F B F+
 Mon, Jan 12 365 Mississippi Valley W 84 - 51 95% +19  1 - 12 1 - 3 +6 +4 B+ D+ F +3 A- F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 350 @Alcorn St. W 72 - 71 54% +1  2 - 12 2 - 3 -8 +1 D- D B+ -10 C C- D
 Mon, Jan 19 336 @Jackson St. L 89 - 94 49% -5  2 - 13 2 - 4 -13 +9 B- D- C -22 F D+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 298 Alabama A&M W 89 - 74 59% -1  3 - 13 3 - 4 +4 +15 A- C- A+ -10 F C+ C+
 Tue, Jan 27 318 Alabama St. W 96 - 64 65% +16  4 - 13 4 - 4 +20 +13 A C- B- +5 A+ D D
 Sat, Jan 31 345 @Prairie View W 81 - 80 52%
 Sat, Feb 7 315 @Florida A&M L 73 - 75 42%
 Mon, Feb 9 248 @Bethune-Cookman L 74 - 81 27%
 Sat, Feb 14 285 Grambling St. W 76 - 74 56%
 Mon, Feb 16 254 Southern L 77 - 78 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 325 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 81 - 82 45%
 Sat, Feb 21 365 @Mississippi Valley W 79 - 66 88%
 Thu, Feb 26 350 Alcorn St. W 81 - 74 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 336 Jackson St. W 83 - 77 70%
 Thu, Mar 5 345 Prairie View W 84 - 78 72%
Totals 10 - 17 9 - 8 -9 -4 D+ C- C -5 D F+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.6 1.5 0.6 2.7 1st
2nd 0.4 3.5 2.0 0.1 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.1 4.8 0.5 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 1.0 8.1 2.0 0.1 11.1 4th
5th 0.1 5.5 6.5 0.2 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.6 10.3 1.7 13.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 6.6 5.7 0.1 12.7 7th
8th 0.0 2.5 8.3 0.9 0.0 11.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 5.6 3.5 0.0 9.9 9th
10th 0.3 2.3 4.2 0.4 7.1 10th
11th 0.2 1.2 2.3 0.7 0.0 4.4 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 1.5 5.4 13.2 20.5 23.4 19.9 11.1 4.0 0.7 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 89.0% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 37.5% 1.5    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 5.5% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.7% 22.8% 22.8% 15.5 0.1 0.1 0.5
12-6 4.0% 17.2% 17.2% 16.0 0.0 0.7 3.3
11-7 11.1% 15.3% 15.3% 16.0 1.7 9.4
10-8 19.9% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 2.3 17.5
9-9 23.4% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 1.8 21.6
8-10 20.5% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.7 19.8
7-11 13.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.2
6-12 5.4% 5.4
5-13 1.5% 1.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 16.0 92.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 15.5 51.9 48.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%