Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.7#351
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#260
Pace80.2#12
Improvement+2.6#36

Offense
Total Offense-7.8#351
First Shot-5.1#315
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#331
Layup/Dunks+0.4#160
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#142
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#320
Freethrows-1.4#270
Improvement+0.4#145

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#333
First Shot-4.3#318
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#239
Layups/Dunks-0.4#187
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#34
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#277
Freethrows-3.5#344
Improvement+2.3#41
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.5% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.0% 2.0% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 20.3% 31.8% 12.4%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 6.7% 2.6% 9.5%
First Four0.9% 1.3% 0.7%
First Round0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Home) - 40.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 31 - 41 - 11
Quad 47 - 108 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 47 @Washington L 50-94 2%     0 - 1 -30.1 -19.3 -8.8
  Thu, Nov 6 269 @Portland L 74-83 17%     0 - 2 -11.7 -11.3 +0.9
  Sat, Nov 8 134 @Loyola Marymount L 72-94 6%     0 - 3 -17.3 +3.6 -20.7
  Tue, Nov 11 44 @Oklahoma L 69-95 1%     0 - 4 -11.7 +0.7 -12.5
  Sat, Nov 15 11 @Vanderbilt L 75-104 0.5%    0 - 5 -7.7 +5.5 -11.4
  Tue, Nov 18 39 @SMU L 60-106 1%     0 - 6 -31.0 -14.6 -10.4
  Thu, Nov 20 159 @Marshall L 70-98 8%     0 - 7 -24.9 -7.8 -14.7
  Sun, Nov 23 106 @Miami (OH) L 84-111 4%     0 - 8 -20.1 +1.4 -17.7
  Wed, Dec 3 190 @Illinois-Chicago W 63-62 10%     1 - 8 +2.1 -11.8 +13.9
  Sat, Dec 6 114 @DePaul L 72-76 5%     1 - 9 +2.3 +0.1 +2.4
  Wed, Dec 10 83 @Tulsa L 84-117 3%     1 - 10 -22.9 +5.2 -25.0
  Sat, Jan 3 290 Alabama A&M L 73-76 40%    
  Mon, Jan 5 264 Alabama St. L 77-81 35%    
  Sat, Jan 10 306 @Texas Southern L 75-83 24%    
  Mon, Jan 12 327 @Prairie View L 77-83 29%    
  Sat, Jan 17 341 Florida A&M W 79-77 56%    
  Mon, Jan 19 223 Bethune-Cookman L 74-80 29%    
  Sat, Jan 24 203 @Southern L 76-89 12%    
  Mon, Jan 26 284 @Grambling St. L 69-78 20%    
  Sat, Jan 31 365 @Mississippi Valley W 79-72 73%    
  Sat, Feb 7 331 Alcorn St. W 79-78 52%    
  Mon, Feb 9 316 Jackson St. L 75-76 48%    
  Sat, Feb 14 264 @Alabama St. L 74-84 18%    
  Mon, Feb 16 290 @Alabama A&M L 70-79 22%    
  Sat, Feb 21 306 Texas Southern L 78-80 45%    
  Sat, Feb 21 327 Prairie View W 81-80 50%    
  Sat, Feb 28 365 Mississippi Valley W 82-69 88%    
  Tue, Mar 3 316 @Jackson St. L 72-79 27%    
  Thu, Mar 5 331 @Alcorn St. L 76-81 32%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 7 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.1 2.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 3.8 0.8 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.0 5.1 2.0 0.1 9.2 7th
8th 0.2 1.8 5.8 3.9 0.3 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.2 5.8 0.9 0.0 15.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.3 7.4 6.4 1.7 0.0 19.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.6 4.8 6.9 5.2 1.3 0.1 20.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 3.3 12th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.8 6.3 10.8 15.0 15.9 15.5 12.6 9.0 5.7 3.1 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 77.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 70.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 26.5% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 12.1% 12.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.5% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.1 0.5
12-6 1.6% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.1 1.5
11-7 3.1% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.2 3.0
10-8 5.7% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.2 5.5
9-9 9.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.2 8.8
8-10 12.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 12.4
7-11 15.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.4
6-12 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.9
5-13 15.0% 15.0
4-14 10.8% 10.8
3-15 6.3% 6.3
2-16 2.8% 2.8
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%