Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.2 #325
Expected Predictive Rating -6.3 #266
Pace 76.4 #27
Improvement +2.7 #67

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #307 C- D D C C-
Defense #322 C- D- C- F+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #178 1.11 #235 -0.9 #216
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #103 0.69 #287 +0.6 #150
Three Pointers 37% #264 1.02 #186 -1.9 #248
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #239 -2.2 #241
Freethrows 0.29 #224 74% #109 0.22 #190
Second Chance 25.7% #309 0.96 #291 0.25 #321
Turnovers 18.5% #302
Total Offense -5.0 #307

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #76 1.21 #260 -3.5 #297
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #332 0.64 #26 +3.0 #9
Three Pointers 42% #133 1.03 #212 -1.0 #226
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #228 -1.6 #229
Freethrows 0.39 #357 72% #190 0.28 #352
Second Chance 35.4% #332 1.15 #308 0.41 #343
Turnovers 15.1% #260
Total Defense -5.2 #322

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #253 2.0% #341
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.4% #235 1.1% #205
Possession Length 16.4 #91 16.9 #103
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #151 0.14 #82
Improvement +1.7 #95 +1.0 #125

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 7.5% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 5.3% 11.7% 2.7%
.500 or above in Conference 73.3% 89.9% 66.6%
Conference Champion 4.9% 10.9% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.0% 6.5% 4.5%
First Round2.7% 4.1% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Away) - 28.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 31 - 31 - 10
Quad 410 - 812 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 47 @Washington L 50 - 94 2% -21  0 - 1 -30 -18 F F F -9 D+ F A-
 Thu, Nov 6 204 @Portland L 74 - 83 16% -14  0 - 2 -9 -9 F C- F +2 B- B B+
 Sat, Nov 8 155 @Loyola Marymount L 72 - 94 11% -9  0 - 3 -19 +3 B+ D- D- -22 F C F
 Tue, Nov 11 52 @Oklahoma L 69 - 95 3% -10  0 - 4 -13 +0 D+ D+ F -13 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 12 @Vanderbilt L 75 - 104 1% -16  0 - 5 -7 +8 C+ D+ C+ -13 B+ F D-
 Tue, Nov 18 36 @SMU L 60 - 106 1% -25  0 - 6 -29 -15 D F D- -8 F+ A- C
 Thu, Nov 20 163 @Marshall L 70 - 98 12% -5  0 - 7 -25 -8 F D+ F -15 F A+ F+
 Sun, Nov 23 91 @Miami (OH) L 84 - 111 5% -20  0 - 8 -18 +1 F C- B+ -15 F C D-
 Wed, Dec 3 136 @Illinois-Chicago W 63 - 62 9% +5  1 - 8 +5 -9 C D+ D+ +14 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 6 92 @DePaul L 72 - 76 5% +1  1 - 9 +5 +2 A+ F F +3 A+ D- F
 Wed, Dec 10 73 @Tulsa L 84 - 117 4% -16  1 - 10 -22 +4 A C D- -23 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 298 Alabama A&M W 95 - 83 52% +4  2 - 10 1 - 0 +1 +27 A+ A+ C -24 C- F C-
 Mon, Jan 5 318 Alabama St. W 90 - 79 59% +6  3 - 10 2 - 0 -1 +5 B- D- D- -7 C- C D
 Sat, Jan 10 308 @Texas Southern W 74 - 66 32% +8  4 - 10 3 - 0 +2 -1 B- F C +4 A- C+ C-
 Mon, Jan 12 345 @Prairie View L 61 - 73 45% -6  4 - 11 3 - 1 -21 -15 F D- F+ -7 D D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 315 Florida A&M L 67 - 71 58% -1  4 - 12 3 - 2 -16 -5 D- C+ D- -11 F+ F A-
 Mon, Jan 19 248 Bethune-Cookman L 82 - 87 OT 41% +2  4 - 13 3 - 3 -13 -4 C+ F+ F -9 B F A
 Sat, Jan 24 254 @Southern W 75 - 74 22% -2  5 - 13 4 - 3 -1 +4 D- C B- -5 B- F B-
 Wed, Jan 28 285 @Grambling St. L 73 - 79 29%
 Sat, Jan 31 365 @Mississippi Valley W 79 - 68 84%
 Sat, Feb 7 350 Alcorn St. W 81 - 76 69%
 Mon, Feb 9 336 Jackson St. W 83 - 79 64%
 Sat, Feb 14 318 @Alabama St. L 78 - 82 36%
 Mon, Feb 16 298 @Alabama A&M L 73 - 78 31%
 Sat, Feb 21 308 Texas Southern W 82 - 81 55%
 Sat, Feb 21 345 Prairie View W 84 - 79 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 365 Mississippi Valley W 82 - 65 94%
 Tue, Mar 3 336 @Jackson St. L 80 - 82 42%
 Thu, Mar 5 350 @Alcorn St. L 78 - 79 47%
Totals 11 - 18 10 - 7 -10 -5 C- D D -5 C- D- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.6 0.4 4.9 1st
2nd 0.4 4.5 4.3 0.8 0.0 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.7 7.5 1.6 0.1 12.9 3rd
4th 1.0 9.7 3.5 0.2 14.3 4th
5th 0.1 5.6 7.4 0.4 13.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 9.7 1.7 12.7 6th
7th 0.2 5.3 5.5 0.1 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 1.4 6.2 0.8 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.3 2.8 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 2.4 0.3 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.6 7.6 16.0 22.7 22.9 16.4 8.5 2.5 0.4 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 91.1% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 63.8% 1.6    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 28.1% 2.4    0.4 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0
11-7 3.4% 0.6    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 1.3 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.4% 11.4% 11.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 2.5% 12.3% 12.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.2
12-6 8.5% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8 7.6
11-7 16.4% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 1.4 15.0
10-8 22.9% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 1.5 21.4
9-9 22.7% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 1.1 21.6
8-10 16.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 15.7
7-11 7.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.6
6-12 2.6% 2.6
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 16.0 94.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%