Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.1 #254
Expected Predictive Rating -8.3 #302
Pace 74.7 #44
Improvement +0.7 #148

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #301 D C C- C- D
Defense #176 D+ C- B- F+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #210 1.06 #294 -2.6 #274
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #49 0.62 #342 +0.8 #133
Three Pointers 35% #310 0.98 #227 -3.6 #306
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #326 -5.4 #327
Freethrows 0.31 #169 67% #334 0.21 #224
Second Chance 30.5% #188 1.02 #214 0.31 #190
Turnovers 17.0% #218
Total Offense -4.8 #301

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #273 1.19 #223 +1.3 #130
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #247 0.81 #267 +0.5 #152
Three Pointers 47% #44 1.13 #313 -5.4 #348
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #290 -3.6 #292
Freethrows 0.37 #332 78% #355 0.28 #353
Second Chance 31.3% #209 1.13 #288 0.35 #267
Turnovers 18.5% #68
Total Defense -0.3 #176

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.0% #306 0.2% #177
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.7% #317 6.9% #308
Possession Length 16.2 #68 16.7 #78
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #120 0.21 #295
Improvement -1.9 #282 +2.6 #46

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.3% 21.5% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 22.5% 22.8% 4.5%
.500 or above in Conference 90.0% 90.4% 69.6%
Conference Champion 25.7% 26.1% 5.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four15.4% 15.5% 10.1%
First Round14.6% 14.7% 7.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 98.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 31 - 11 - 8
Quad 412 - 913 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 19 @Arkansas L 77 - 109 2% -21  0 - 1 -12 +0 C- C B+ -8 C+ B- D+
 Wed, Nov 5 94 @Marquette L 82 - 100 10% -9  0 - 2 -9 +4 C C B- -11 F D C-
 Tue, Nov 18 47 @Washington L 93 - 99 2OT 5% +3  0 - 3 +8 +4 C- A+ D- +6 B+ C- B+
 Fri, Nov 21 249 @San Jose St. L 66 - 80 37% -8  0 - 4 -16 -9 F F C- -7 D- D A+
 Sat, Nov 29 267 @Northwestern St. W 75 - 73 41% +8  1 - 4 -1 -0 C- D+ D -1 C F+ B
 Mon, Dec 8 32 @Texas L 69 - 95 3% -17  1 - 5 -9 -0 C+ F F -8 F+ F+ A-
 Wed, Dec 10 275 @Texas St. L 83 - 86 44% +2  1 - 6 -6 +1 C- C F -7 F A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 139 @California Baptist L 67 - 75 19% -4  1 - 7 -4 -2 D B F -2 C- B+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 45 @Baylor L 67 - 111 4% -15  1 - 8 -29 -2 F A+ B+ -28 F D+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 5 @Illinois L 55 - 90 1% -20  1 - 9 -11 -5 F B C -9 F F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 308 Texas Southern W 84 - 73 73% +8  2 - 9 1 - 0 -1 -4 C+ F+ C +3 C+ D+ A
 Mon, Jan 5 345 Prairie View L 85 - 89 82% -5  2 - 10 1 - 1 -19 -1 F C C+ -18 F F B-
 Sat, Jan 10 315 @Florida A&M L 59 - 67 54% -4  2 - 11 1 - 2 -14 -12 F F D- -2 C D- A+
 Mon, Jan 12 248 @Bethune-Cookman W 77 - 73 37% -4  3 - 11 2 - 2 +2 +1 F B C+ +1 D- A+ A
 Sat, Jan 17 285 @Grambling St. W 71 - 53 47% +11  4 - 11 3 - 2 +14 -2 D+ F B- +16 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 325 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 74 - 75 78% +2  4 - 12 3 - 3 -14 -5 F A+ F+ -9 C F+ D+
 Wed, Jan 28 365 Mississippi Valley W 81 - 59 98%
 Sat, Jan 31 350 @Alcorn St. W 77 - 73 66%
 Mon, Feb 2 336 @Jackson St. W 79 - 76 61%
 Sat, Feb 7 298 Alabama A&M W 75 - 69 70%
 Mon, Feb 9 318 Alabama St. W 81 - 74 75%
 Sat, Feb 14 345 @Prairie View W 80 - 76 64%
 Mon, Feb 16 308 @Texas Southern W 78 - 77 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 285 Grambling St. W 75 - 70 68%
 Thu, Feb 26 315 Florida A&M W 76 - 69 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 248 Bethune-Cookman W 77 - 74 60%
 Tue, Mar 3 318 @Alabama St. W 78 - 77 55%
 Thu, Mar 5 298 @Alabama A&M L 72 - 73 48%
Totals 12 - 16 11 - 7 -5 -5 D C C- +0 D+ C- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 7.3 10.0 5.9 1.5 25.7 1st
2nd 0.5 7.2 9.4 3.0 0.3 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.6 9.0 2.4 0.1 15.1 3rd
4th 0.6 7.0 3.2 0.1 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 3.2 4.8 0.3 8.4 5th
6th 0.5 5.2 1.3 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 2.7 0.1 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.7 0.4 3.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 1.1 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.2 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 6.3 12.1 17.2 20.8 19.1 13.1 6.1 1.5 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 1.5    1.4 0.1
14-4 95.8% 5.9    4.8 1.1 0.0
13-5 76.2% 10.0    5.6 3.7 0.7 0.0
12-6 38.0% 7.3    1.5 3.0 2.2 0.5 0.1
11-7 5.0% 1.1    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.7% 25.7 13.3 7.9 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.5% 38.4% 38.4% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9
14-4 6.1% 33.1% 33.1% 15.5 0.0 0.9 1.1 4.1
13-5 13.1% 29.6% 29.6% 15.9 0.5 3.3 9.2
12-6 19.1% 27.2% 27.2% 16.0 0.1 5.1 13.9
11-7 20.8% 21.1% 21.1% 16.0 0.0 4.4 16.4
10-8 17.2% 18.7% 18.7% 16.0 3.2 14.0
9-9 12.1% 14.1% 14.1% 16.0 1.7 10.4
8-10 6.3% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.3 6.0
7-11 2.7% 2.7
6-12 0.8% 0.8
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.3% 21.3% 0.0% 15.9 78.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 14.2 17.2 46.6 35.3 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%