Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#203
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#248
Pace80.3#11
Improvement+0.0#191

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#240
First Shot-2.9#260
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#166
Layup/Dunks+0.2#172
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#192
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#232
Freethrows-1.4#273
Improvement-0.9#256

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#170
First Shot-1.6#230
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#79
Layups/Dunks+1.9#108
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#71
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#287
Freethrows-2.2#312
Improvement+0.9#118
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.8% 31.5% 24.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.1 15.6
.500 or above 56.1% 74.8% 50.7%
.500 or above in Conference 93.4% 95.8% 92.7%
Conference Champion 48.1% 57.8% 45.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four9.3% 6.5% 10.1%
First Round22.4% 28.5% 20.6%
Second Round0.4% 1.0% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 22.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 31 - 9
Quad 415 - 616 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 20 @Arkansas L 77-109 3%     0 - 1 -13.4 +1.5 -10.6
  Wed, Nov 5 88 @Marquette L 82-100 14%     0 - 2 -9.1 +5.1 -12.1
  Tue, Nov 18 47 @Washington L 93-99 2OT 7%     0 - 3 +7.9 +3.3 +6.1
  Fri, Nov 21 188 @San Jose St. L 66-80 35%     0 - 4 -12.7 -7.4 -5.4
  Sat, Nov 29 274 @Northwestern St. W 75-73 50%     1 - 4 -0.9 -0.3 -0.6
  Mon, Dec 8 41 @Texas L 69-95 6%     1 - 5 -11.1 -0.3 -10.3
  Wed, Dec 10 239 @Texas St. L 83-86 44%     1 - 6 -4.4 +1.4 -5.4
  Tue, Dec 16 127 @California Baptist L 71-79 23%    
  Sun, Dec 21 32 @Baylor L 74-93 4%    
  Mon, Dec 29 14 @Illinois L 70-94 2%    
  Wed, Dec 31 331 @Alcorn St. W 81-76 67%    
  Sat, Jan 3 306 Texas Southern W 83-75 78%    
  Mon, Jan 5 327 Prairie View W 86-76 82%    
  Sat, Jan 10 341 @Florida A&M W 81-75 69%    
  Mon, Jan 12 223 @Bethune-Cookman L 76-78 42%    
  Sat, Jan 17 284 @Grambling St. W 74-73 53%    
  Sat, Jan 24 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 89-76 88%    
  Mon, Jan 26 365 Mississippi Valley W 88-65 98%    
  Sat, Jan 31 331 @Alcorn St. W 81-76 66%    
  Mon, Feb 2 316 @Jackson St. W 77-74 62%    
  Sat, Feb 7 290 Alabama A&M W 78-71 75%    
  Mon, Feb 9 264 Alabama St. W 82-76 70%    
  Sat, Feb 14 327 @Prairie View W 83-79 64%    
  Mon, Feb 16 306 @Texas Southern W 80-78 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 284 Grambling St. W 77-70 73%    
  Thu, Feb 26 341 Florida A&M W 84-72 85%    
  Sat, Feb 28 223 Bethune-Cookman W 79-75 64%    
  Tue, Mar 3 264 @Alabama St. L 79-80 49%    
  Thu, Mar 5 290 @Alabama A&M W 75-74 55%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 13 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 6.1 10.3 11.4 9.5 5.8 2.7 47.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 5.4 6.6 3.4 0.8 0.1 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.1 4.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 3.7 1.0 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.1 0.1 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.2 0.1 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.1 2.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.0 5.0 7.2 10.5 12.4 14.1 13.8 12.2 9.6 5.8 2.7 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.7    2.7
17-1 100.0% 5.8    5.8 0.0
16-2 99.1% 9.5    9.1 0.4
15-3 93.5% 11.4    9.7 1.7 0.0
14-4 74.5% 10.3    6.4 3.4 0.4 0.0
13-5 43.2% 6.1    2.1 2.7 1.1 0.2
12-6 12.1% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 47.4% 47.4 36.0 8.8 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.7% 53.9% 53.9% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.3
17-1 5.8% 48.0% 48.0% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.5 3.0
16-2 9.6% 42.2% 42.2% 15.2 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.4 5.5
15-3 12.2% 35.6% 35.6% 15.5 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.4 7.9
14-4 13.8% 29.8% 29.8% 15.7 0.1 0.9 3.1 9.7
13-5 14.1% 25.1% 25.1% 15.9 0.0 0.5 3.0 10.6
12-6 12.4% 18.9% 18.9% 16.0 0.1 2.3 10.1
11-7 10.5% 15.4% 15.4% 16.0 0.0 1.6 8.9
10-8 7.2% 12.5% 12.5% 16.0 0.9 6.3
9-9 5.0% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.5 4.6
8-10 3.0% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.2 2.8
7-11 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6
6-12 0.8% 0.8
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.8% 25.8% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.5 2.4 7.0 15.9 74.2 0.0%