Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -6.5 276
Results Rating -6.4 261
Consistency 0.12 39
Pace 73.7 46
Improvement +0.7 155

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 253 D+ C C+ C D
Defense D+ 283 D D B- F+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 186 D+ 54% 278 -1.6 241
2 Pt. Jumpers 56% 30 D 34% 308 +1.7 93
Three Pointers 34% 323 C 34% 176 -3.7 303
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -0.9 305 D+ -2.6 276
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 295
Second Chance C- 29.1% 215 C 1.05 151 C 0.30 188
Opponents' Steals B- 8.5% 94
Other Turnovers C- 7.8% 254
Turnovers C+ 16.3% 145
Freethrows C+ 0.32 140 D 68% 314 C 0.22 192
Total Offense D+ -3.0 253

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 163 C 11.2% 195
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 37% 35 D+ 6.5% 286
Three Pointers D+ 81% 263 B 0.4% 60
Total C 55% 190 D+ 6.3% 264


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 242 D+ 62% 293 +0.6 201
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 214 C 38% 174 -0.5 143
Three Pointers 44% 93 D- 38% 339 +4.0 334
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 175 D +3.9 330
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 318
Second Chance D+ 32.0% 258 D 1.13 315 D 0.36 304
Turnovers from Steals B 11.2% 56
Other Turnovers C- 6.9% 232
Turnovers B- 18.1% 92
Freethrows D- 0.36 330 F+ 76% 349 F+ 0.28 349
Total Defense D+ -3.5 283

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 283 C 11.6% 145
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 268 A 10.1% 11
Three Pointers D- 89% 334 C+ 1.2% 96
Total D 62% 320 B- 6.8% 82

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.8 103 16.6 57
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 117 0.21 322
Consistency 0.08 2 0.11 79
Improvement +1.4 119 -0.7 224

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 279 275 266
Results Rating Rank 290 250 249
Conference Record 11 - 7 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None 16 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Four 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59% 100% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four59% 100% 0%
First Round32% 54% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 30 - 10 - 8
Quad 415 - 815 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 13 @Arkansas L 77 - 109 1% -21  2% 0 - 1 D -11 C- -2 D+ B B+ D+ -4 C+ B- C-
 Wed, Nov 5 76 @Marquette L 82 - 100 6% -9  11% 0 - 2 D+ -7 B- +4 C+ C A F+ -9 F B D-
 Tue, Nov 18 50 @Washington L 93 - 99 2OT 4% +3  61% 0 - 3 B- +8 C +2 D+ A+ F+ A- +8 A C- B
 Fri, Nov 21 212 @San Jose St. L 66 - 80 26% -8  6% 0 - 4 D- -14 F -13 F F D- C -1 D+ D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 279 @Northwestern St. W 75 - 73 40% +8  92% 1 - 4 C- -2 C +0 C+ C- D- C- -2 D F B+
 Mon, Dec 8 36 @Texas L 69 - 95 3% -17  0% 1 - 5 D -9 D+ -4 B- F F D -5 F+ F A-
 Wed, Dec 10 233 @Texas St. L 83 - 86 31% +2  66% 1 - 6 C- -4 C- -1 C C+ F C- -3 F A+ A
 Tue, Dec 16 115 @California Baptist L 67 - 75 12% -4  6% 1 - 7 C- -2 C- -2 D B F C -0 C- B+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 46 @Baylor L 67 - 111 3% -15  12% 1 - 8 F -29 D -5 F A A F -24 F D F
 Mon, Dec 29 7 @Illinois L 55 - 90 1% -20  0% 1 - 9 D -10 D- -7 F B+ C+ D -6 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 316 Texas Southern W 84 - 73 72% +8  92% 2 - 9 1 - 0 C -2 D- -6 B- D C+ B- +3 B- D A-
 Mon, Jan 5 303 Prairie View L 85 - 89 69% -5  9% 2 - 10 1 - 1 F+ -16 C- -1 D- C- C+ F -14 F F B-
 Sat, Jan 10 312 @Florida A&M L 59 - 67 49% -4  9% 2 - 11 1 - 2 D- -14 F -14 F F D- C -1 C- D- A+
 Mon, Jan 12 248 @Bethune-Cookman W 77 - 73 33% -4  11% 3 - 11 2 - 2 C+ +2 C- -1 F B+ B- B- +2 F+ A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 307 @Grambling St. W 71 - 53 48% +11  88% 4 - 11 3 - 2 B+ +12 C- -2 C- F C+ A+ +14 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 321 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 74 - 75 74% +2  72% 4 - 12 3 - 3 D- -14 F+ -8 F A+ D- D -6 C F C-
 Wed, Jan 28 365 Mississippi Valley W 80 - 69 95% +5  95% 5 - 12 4 - 3 D- -15 D -5 F C C- F+ -10 F+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 31 351 @Alcorn St. L 73 - 78 68% -1  34% 5 - 13 4 - 4 F+ -16 C- -1 F+ D B F -16 F D+ A
 Mon, Feb 2 346 @Jackson St. W 96 - 91 OT 64% +11  97% 6 - 13 5 - 4 D+ -5 C+ +2 C F+ A F+ -8 F D+ F+
 Sat, Feb 7 311 Alabama A&M W 81 - 68 71% +8  98% 7 - 13 6 - 4 C +1 B- +4 B- B B- C- -3 B F F+
 Mon, Feb 9 324 Alabama St. W 69 - 68 75% +0  52% 8 - 13 7 - 4 D- -12 D- -7 F D A- D -6 D+ F A+
 Sat, Feb 14 303 @Prairie View W 87 - 82 47% +0  35% 9 - 13 8 - 4 C -1 C+ +3 C- C+ A- D+ -4 D- B- C
 Mon, Feb 16 316 @Texas Southern L 73 - 74 51% +6  84% 9 - 14 8 - 5 D+ -8 D- -8 D F+ C- C+ +0 D- C+ A
 Sat, Feb 21 307 Grambling St. W 87 - 73 70% +17  94% 10 - 14 9 - 5 C+ +2 B- +5 A C F+ D+ -4 C+ F C-
 Thu, Feb 26 312 Florida A&M L 71 - 82 71% -4  47% 10 - 15 9 - 6 F -23 D- -8 F C- A+ F -15 F F F
 Sat, Feb 28 248 Bethune-Cookman L 79 - 82 56% -4  19% 10 - 16 9 - 7 D -11 D+ -3 C B C D- -8 D+ F A
 Tue, Mar 3 324 @Alabama St. W 71 - 64 54% -4  2% 11 - 16 10 - 7 C -0 D- -7 F C A B+ +6 A+ F C+
 Thu, Mar 5 311 @Alabama A&M W 88 - 85 49% +8  98% 12 - 16 11 - 7 C- -3 B- +5 D+ A+ C F+ -9 F+ B+ F
 Thu, Mar 12 321 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 84 - 81 64% +3  81% 13 - 16 D+ -7 B+ +8 A+ F+ C- F -15 F B F
 Fri, Mar 13 312 Florida A&M W 73 - 70 61% +4  64% 14 - 16 D+ -6 D -6 C- D+ B- C -1 D B- A
 Sat, Mar 14 303 Prairie View W 81 - 79 58%
Totals 15 - 16 11 - 7 -7 D+ -3 F D+ D D+ -4 C D C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ D C D+ 38% 56% 34% D D+ C- C C C+ C+ D C D+ D+ C D- D 37% 20% 44% C D D+ D D B- D- F+ F+
1.04 54% 34% 34% -3 -1 0.95 29% 1.0 .30 16% .32 68% .22 1.14 62% 38% 38% +4 0 1.10 32% 1.1 .36 18% .36 76% .24
Nov
3		 Arkansas C- D+ F A+ C 26% 33% 41% F D+ C A+ B B+ A+ F C- D+ F C+ B+ C+ 40% 23% 37% B C+ C- A- B- C- F F F
0.95 53% 11% 42% -5 -2 0.86 28% 1.4 .40 15% .35 46% .16 1.34 79% 36% 32% +7 0 1.15 36% 1.1 .41 11% .40 86% .35
Nov
5		 Marquette B- C- C- C C 56% 16% 27% A- C+ D A- C A A+ D+ A+ F+ F C- F+ F 33% 8% 59% B+ F B+ C B D- B- F D+
1.04 55% 33% 33% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.1 .30 16% .44 72% .32 1.26 75% 40% 39% +10 +1 1.25 26% 1.0 .26 11% .29 80% .23
Nov
18		 Washington C C F C C- 34% 37% 29% D+ D+ B+ A+ A+ F+ A+ D- A+ A- B- A C+ A 36% 38% 26% A- A D+ C+ C- B F B F
1.01 57% 26% 33% -5 -2 0.87 32% 1.3 .43 19% .46 65% .30 1.07 57% 32% 33% -3 -2 0.91 39% 1.1 .43 17% .65 72% .47
Nov
21		 San Jose St. F C C- F F+ 33% 24% 43% D- F D- F F D- D B- D+ C B- C F D- 30% 36% 34% B D+ F B D+ A+ F C- F
0.95 61% 38% 26% -4 -1 0.93 29% 0.7 .21 20% .25 79% .20 1.15 54% 38% 47% +5 -3 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 22% .53 76% .40
Nov
29		 Northwestern St. C D F A+ C 56% 14% 30% A- C+ C+ D- C- D- F F F C- A+ F F D 36% 22% 42% D D F+ F F B+ B A B+
1.08 54% 14% 53% +3 +2 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 20% .24 54% .13 1.06 22% 55% 48% -1 0 1.00 31% 1.3 .39 20% .27 67% .18
Dec
8		 Texas D+ C+ D A+ B- 46% 32% 22% C B- B+ F F F A+ F B+ D D C- F F+ 42% 16% 42% D+ F+ C F F A- F F F
0.96 57% 31% 45% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.3 .08 20% .43 64% .28 1.33 67% 43% 44% +11 +1 1.26 38% 1.6 .58 18% .55 91% .50
Dec
10		 Texas St. C- B C- A+ B 26% 31% 43% F C C B- C+ F D+ D D C- D- D+ F F 53% 15% 32% F F C+ A+ A+ A F B- F
1.05 64% 35% 43% +7 -2 1.11 30% 1.0 .30 24% .31 68% .22 1.08 64% 43% 47% +10 +2 1.26 31% 0.4 .14 24% .51 74% .38
Dec
16		 California Baptist C- F F B+ D 38% 24% 38% C- D B B B F B B- B C D- C- B C- 25% 10% 65% C C- B- B+ B+ D+ F F F
0.97 42% 25% 37% -8 0 0.86 32% 1.0 .32 20% .36 75% .27 1.08 62% 40% 30% -2 0 0.98 34% 0.8 .27 16% .45 81% .36
Dec
21		 Baylor D A+ D- F F 7% 61% 31% F F C A+ A A D+ F F+ F F D+ F F 19% 35% 46% A F D C- D F F D+ F
0.96 75% 33% 24% -7 -7 0.74 29% 1.6 .45 13% .23 57% .13 1.59 82% 45% 54% +21 -3 1.37 42% 1.1 .48 6% .39 77% .30
Dec
29		 Illinois D- C- F F F 31% 44% 25% D- F B+ B B+ C+ D+ B+ C- D F A+ F F 30% 11% 59% C+ F F B+ F A+ D F F
0.85 53% 21% 21% -14 -3 0.67 31% 1.0 .31 12% .14 75% .11 1.39 93% 20% 44% +18 +1 1.39 55% 1.1 .62 22% .36 89% .32
Jan
3		 Texas Southern D- A- B+ C+ B+ 37% 29% 33% F B- F A+ D C+ A+ F A- B- F B+ A+ C+ 30% 34% 36% A B- A+ F D A- F F F
1.07 68% 47% 35% +7 -1 1.14 16% 1.8 .29 15% .51 62% .31 0.93 71% 31% 24% -4 -2 0.89 18% 1.8 .32 22% .52 78% .41
Jan
5		 Prairie View C- F F A+ D- 49% 24% 27% C D- C D C- C+ A+ A A+ F F F D F 33% 41% 26% B+ F C+ F F B- D B D+
1.12 46% 25% 46% -4 0 0.94 36% 1.0 .36 17% .56 80% .44 1.17 67% 55% 36% +10 -3 1.17 23% 1.9 .42 17% .38 71% .27
Jan
10		 Florida A&M F D A+ F F 32% 29% 39% F F C F F D- A+ F A+ C D A+ B C 38% 14% 48% F+ C- F C+ D- A+ F F F
0.88 54% 58% 19% -4 -2 0.90 31% 0.5 .15 21% .51 67% .34 1.00 63% 17% 30% -4 +1 0.95 38% 0.8 .31 27% .41 85% .35
Jan
12		 Bethune-Cookman C- F F D F 49% 21% 30% C- F B- B B+ B- A+ B- A+ B- D F C+ F+ 43% 17% 40% D F+ B A+ A+ A- D- F F
1.06 42% 18% 31% -13 +1 0.77 37% 1.2 .46 14% .48 73% .35 1.01 65% 50% 32% +4 +1 1.11 25% 0.5 .13 22% .37 81% .30
Jan
17		 Grambling St. C- F+ C+ B+ C- 46% 10% 44% B C- D- F F C+ B+ F C- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 53% 9% 38% F A+ F C D- A+ F B F
1.02 50% 40% 38% -1 +2 1.04 28% 0.6 .17 19% .39 59% .23 0.76 28% 33% 23% -23 +3 0.62 35% 1.0 .35 33% .68 69% .47
Jan
24		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F+ A C F F 30% 28% 41% F F B+ A+ A+ D- A C+ A D B+ C C- C+ 31% 18% 51% D+ C A- F F C- F B F
1.07 71% 38% 16% -7 -2 0.85 42% 1.4 .58 19% .46 77% .36 1.08 50% 38% 35% -2 0 0.98 19% 1.8 .34 17% .49 71% .35
Jan
28		 Mississippi Valley D A+ A F D 27% 49% 24% F F F+ A+ C C- A+ A A+ F+ B- F D F 18% 41% 41% B F+ F C+ D- C- A+ A A+
1.15 75% 50% 9% +1 -4 0.96 29% 1.7 .48 17% .51 83% .42 1.00 50% 48% 35% +3 -4 1.00 33% 0.8 .28 20% .14 63% .09
Jan
31		 Alcorn St. C- C B+ F D- 36% 20% 43% D- F+ C- D- D B A+ D A+ F F F F F 40% 9% 51% F F C- D+ D+ A F+ D- F+
1.12 63% 44% 26% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 15% .47 69% .33 1.20 67% 75% 43% +14 +2 1.33 26% 1.0 .26 23% .32 75% .24
Feb
2		 Jackson St. C+ C C- B C 46% 20% 34% C C C F F+ A A+ F B+ F+ B+ D+ F F 26% 26% 48% C+ F C D- D+ F+ F D+ F
1.19 61% 33% 38% +2 +1 1.08 36% 0.8 .27 11% .48 65% .31 1.13 47% 40% 43% +4 -2 1.07 28% 1.1 .30 15% .45 77% .35
Feb
7		 Alabama A&M B- B B- B+ B- 45% 20% 35% C B- A D- B B- B B B+ C- A A+ F B- 35% 37% 28% A- B C- F F F+ F A F
1.24 65% 40% 39% +6 +1 1.16 43% 0.9 .40 14% .37 76% .28 1.04 44% 24% 46% -5 -2 0.87 26% 1.4 .35 12% .51 66% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
9		 Alabama St. D- A- F D F 27% 35% 39% F F D+ D D A- A C+ A D D A- F F+ 24% 43% 33% A+ D+ F F F A+ F B F
1.05 69% 18% 32% -6 -3 0.86 30% 1.0 .30 14% .44 76% .33 1.03 60% 28% 43% 0 -4 0.95 41% 1.2 .49 26% .47 65% .31
Feb
14		 Prairie View C+ B A- F D+ 52% 21% 27% C+ C- C B C+ A- A+ B- A+ D+ C- C- D+ D- 37% 25% 38% F+ D- A F B- C F D F
1.13 63% 45% 21% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.2 .42 14% .50 76% .38 1.07 58% 38% 35% +1 -1 1.02 17% 1.2 .20 16% .49 78% .38
Feb
16		 Texas Southern D- F B+ A+ D 38% 21% 40% D+ D D- F F+ C- D- D+ D- C+ D+ C- C D 45% 20% 35% F+ D- C+ C+ C+ A B F C+
1.00 35% 45% 43% -2 0 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 16% .31 68% .21 1.02 61% 40% 33% +1 +1 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 22% .25 79% .19
Feb
21		 Grambling St. B- A+ D A+ A+ 42% 27% 31% D- A F A+ C F+ A- A+ A+ D+ F A+ A+ C+ 38% 32% 30% A- C+ D- F F C- F C- F
1.17 79% 33% 43% +12 0 1.24 13% 2.7 .35 23% .40 83% .33 0.98 72% 20% 21% -6 -1 0.87 32% 1.5 .47 20% .44 73% .32
Feb
26		 Florida A&M D- F D+ B- F 34% 21% 45% D+ F F+ A- C- A+ A+ F B F C F+ D F+ 52% 14% 34% F F F F F F F F+ F
1.01 33% 36% 38% -6 0 0.89 24% 1.1 .26 10% .44 64% .28 1.17 58% 43% 35% +1 +2 1.08 38% 1.4 .52 16% .40 75% .30
Feb
28		 Bethune-Cookman D+ F F A+ C 57% 17% 26% B- C C A B C C- F F D- F A+ A+ C 57% 13% 30% F D+ F F F A F F F
1.07 43% 22% 57% -2 +2 1.02 33% 1.3 .44 15% .30 53% .16 1.11 69% 17% 21% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.4 .54 23% .53 77% .40
Mar
3		 Alabama St. D- F F C- F 45% 22% 33% C- F C- C+ C A A D B B+ B+ A A+ A+ 32% 23% 45% C+ A+ B- F F C+ C+ B- B-
1.00 40% 25% 33% -11 0 0.80 32% 1.2 .37 13% .44 70% .31 0.90 47% 25% 21% -15 -1 0.70 27% 1.6 .44 18% .26 67% .17
Mar
5		 Alabama A&M B- D C+ A+ D+ 57% 28% 15% C D+ C A+ A+ C A+ B A+ F+ F A F+ F 47% 29% 24% D+ F+ C- A+ B+ F F D+ F
1.21 56% 38% 43% +1 0 1.04 31% 1.9 .59 15% .60 76% .45 1.17 69% 25% 38% +3 0 1.07 26% 0.7 .18 11% .45 76% .34
Mar
12		 Arkansas Pine Bluff B+ B- F A+ A+ 49% 22% 29% C A+ C- F F+ C- B+ F+ C+ F D- F+ F F 34% 36% 30% A F F A+ B F F C- F
1.28 64% 30% 69% +16 +1 1.36 33% 0.9 .29 17% .42 70% .29 1.24 65% 44% 53% +13 -2 1.24 32% 0.5 .16 12% .44 76% .33
Mar
13		 Florida A&M D B A F C 36% 32% 32% F C- C F+ D+ B- F F F C C A- F D- 45% 23% 32% D+ D A D- B- A F F F
1.02 65% 50% 28% +3 -2 1.05 32% 0.8 .24 17% .17 50% .08 0.98 57% 27% 40% 0 0 1.02 21% 1.0 .21 25% .37 90% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 58.8% 58.8% 16.0 58.8 41.2
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 58.8% 58.8% 0.0% 16.0 41.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 58.8% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 41.2%