Alabama A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.7 #298
Expected Predictive Rating -7.1 #276
Pace 65.6 #269
Improvement -3.0 #312

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #298 D D+ C C+ D
Defense #271 D+ C C- C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #235 1.05 #303 -3.3 #295
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #54 0.73 #221 +2.2 #71
Three Pointers 36% #281 0.94 #275 -3.9 #312
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #319 -5.0 #320
Freethrows 0.31 #159 73% #154 0.23 #151
Second Chance 25.4% #314 1.04 #186 0.26 #288
Turnovers 16.8% #204
Total Offense -4.7 #298

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #142 1.29 #326 -3.6 #300
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #241 0.74 #143 +1.0 #121
Three Pointers 42% #164 1.06 #244 -1.2 #233
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #296 -3.7 #298
Freethrows 0.32 #251 70% #84 0.23 #216
Second Chance 31.3% #214 1.04 #164 0.32 #196
Turnovers 15.6% #226
Total Defense -3.0 #271

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.0% #307 0.8% #243
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.9% #308 6.4% #301
Possession Length 18.7 #305 16.6 #59
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #232 0.22 #328
Improvement +0.3 #165 -3.3 #339

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.3% 12.6% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 52.2% 61.8% 33.4%
.500 or above in Conference 79.7% 87.8% 63.9%
Conference Champion 13.1% 17.4% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.5% 9.1% 7.3%
First Round6.9% 7.9% 4.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida A&M (Home) - 66.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 20 - 6
Quad 415 - 915 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 31 @Indiana L 51 - 98 2% -31  0 - 1 -29 -15 F+ F B- -14 F C+ B-
 Thu, Nov 13 230 Charleston Southern W 68 - 64 47% +5  1 - 1 -3 -7 F+ A F +4 B- D A+
 Sun, Nov 16 247 Lindenwood W 74 - 65 50% +2  2 - 1 +1 +1 C+ C D +0 C B- B-
 Fri, Nov 28 33 @Clemson L 56 - 92 2% -25  2 - 2 -19 -7 C F B -12 D F+ B-
 Sun, Nov 30 237 @Coastal Carolina L 60 - 67 27% -6  2 - 3 -8 -11 F+ F D- +3 A- C+ B-
 Wed, Dec 3 226 Tennessee St. W 80 - 53 46% +9  3 - 3 +20 +9 A- B- F +13 A+ C- A
 Sun, Dec 7 167 @Lipscomb L 58 - 92 17% -13  3 - 4 -32 -9 F D- C- -25 F D- F
 Mon, Dec 15 328 North Alabama W 68 - 60 71% +0  4 - 4 -5 -8 F C- B+ +3 D- A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 64 Mississippi L 66 - 80 7% -13  4 - 5 -5 +4 B- C- C+ -10 F C- C
 Sun, Dec 21 257 Chattanooga L 66 - 73 52% -4  4 - 6 -15 -5 D- D B- -11 D- D D
 Sat, Jan 3 325 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 83 - 95 48% -4  4 - 7 0 - 1 -19 +15 D A+ C -35 F F D-
 Mon, Jan 5 365 @Mississippi Valley W 71 - 51 89% +12  5 - 7 1 - 1 -1 -9 F D F +7 B- B A+
 Sat, Jan 10 350 Alcorn St. L 62 - 64 77% +4  5 - 8 1 - 2 -17 -12 F D- C- -5 C B F
 Mon, Jan 12 336 Jackson St. W 100 - 91 73% +6  6 - 8 2 - 2 -5 +6 C+ C C- -13 D C F
 Mon, Jan 19 318 Alabama St. W 73 - 69 57% +0  7 - 8 3 - 2 -5 -6 F F+ C+ +1 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 308 @Texas Southern L 74 - 89 41% +1  7 - 9 3 - 3 -21 +1 B- F D- -22 F C- F
 Tue, Jan 27 345 @Prairie View W 80 - 60 55% +12  8 - 9 4 - 3 +11 +6 B- F C+ +6 C+ A- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 315 Florida A&M W 72 - 67 66%
 Mon, Feb 2 248 Bethune-Cookman W 73 - 72 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 254 @Southern L 69 - 75 30%
 Mon, Feb 9 285 @Grambling St. L 68 - 71 37%
 Sat, Feb 14 365 Mississippi Valley W 77 - 58 97%
 Mon, Feb 16 325 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 78 - 73 69%
 Thu, Feb 19 315 @Florida A&M L 69 - 70 45%
 Sat, Feb 21 248 @Bethune-Cookman L 69 - 75 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 318 Alabama St. W 76 - 71 67%
 Tue, Mar 3 285 Grambling St. W 71 - 68 60%
 Thu, Mar 5 254 Southern W 73 - 72 52%
Totals 14 - 14 10 - 8 -8 -5 D D+ C -3 D+ C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 5.0 5.0 1.8 0.3 13.1 1st
2nd 0.5 6.4 6.0 1.1 0.0 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.8 8.4 1.2 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.9 9.1 3.0 0.1 13.0 4th
5th 0.1 4.8 6.6 0.3 11.8 5th
6th 1.2 7.8 1.6 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 4.2 4.2 0.1 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 4.8 0.7 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.5 1.8 0.0 4.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.1 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 1.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.7 12.3 18.4 21.6 19.2 12.3 6.1 1.9 0.3 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-4 98.7% 1.8    1.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 81.8% 5.0    2.9 1.8 0.3 0.0
12-6 40.4% 5.0    1.0 2.2 1.4 0.3 0.0
11-7 5.3% 1.0    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.1% 13.1 5.8 4.4 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.3% 31.7% 31.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 1.9% 27.3% 27.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4
13-5 6.1% 21.4% 21.4% 15.9 0.1 1.2 4.8
12-6 12.3% 17.6% 17.6% 16.0 0.1 2.1 10.1
11-7 19.2% 14.4% 14.4% 16.0 0.0 2.7 16.4
10-8 21.6% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 0.0 2.5 19.1
9-9 18.4% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5 16.9
8-10 12.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.4 11.9
7-11 5.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.7
6-12 1.9% 1.9
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 16.0 88.7 0.0%