West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
11 Gonzaga 100.0%   3   21 - 1 9 - 0 +19.7      +10.3 15 +9.4 13 74.3 50 +26.2 6 +17.4 2
42 St. Mary's 40.8%   18 - 3 8 - 1 +11.9      +5.8 61 +6.1 41 64.2 303 +14.1 37 +14.6 3
50 Santa Clara 24.6%   16 - 5 8 - 1 +10.5      +6.0 59 +4.5 63 72.0 94 +11.1 54 +18.1 1
98 San Francisco 1.3%   12 - 9 5 - 4 +5.4      +2.6 105 +2.8 97 64.8 289 +3.6 110 +3.2 4
123 Seattle 0.3%   12 - 8 3 - 6 +2.6      -4.3 286 +6.8 29 69.1 170 +3.1 121 -0.7 8
131 Pacific 0.3%   12 - 8 5 - 4 +1.7      +1.0 136 +0.8 138 64.6 292 +2.4 125 +0.7 6
138 Washington St. 0.2%   8 - 13 4 - 5 +1.3      +2.9 97 -1.6 229 69.4 164 -0.9 183 +1.0 5
155 Loyola Marymount 0.1%   10 - 11 2 - 7 +0.3      -2.8 253 +3.1 89 68.3 196 -0.4 170 -3.5 11
194 Oregon St. 0.0%   10 - 12 3 - 6 -2.1      -0.5 180 -1.6 230 64.3 301 -0.8 180 -1.2 9
204 Portland 0.0%   8 - 12 3 - 6 -2.7      -2.1 225 -0.7 190 71.9 96 -2.0 203 -1.5 10
212 San Diego 0.0%   6 - 13 3 - 6 -3.1      -1.2 196 -1.9 236 75.2 37 -5.4 243 0.0 7
280 Pepperdine 0.0%   4 - 16 1 - 8 -6.9      -5.8 322 -1.0 210 67.7 219 -8.3 303 -7.4 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 11 Gonzaga 68 98 San Francisco 66   
Sat, Jan 24 204 Portland 69 42 St. Mary's 75   
Sat, Jan 24 131 Pacific 56 123 Seattle 54   
Sat, Jan 24 212 San Diego 73 50 Santa Clara 85   
Sat, Jan 24 280 Pepperdine 79 138 Washington St. 95   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 28 98 San Francisco 70 50 Santa Clara 78 78%   
Wed, Jan 28 123 Seattle 70 138 Washington St. 72 57%   
Wed, Jan 28 155 Loyola Marymount 72 194 Oregon St. 66 70%   
Wed, Jan 28 131 Pacific 76 204 Portland 69 76%   
Wed, Jan 28 280 Pepperdine 74 212 San Diego 75 53%   
Sat, Jan 31 11 Gonzaga 80 42 St. Mary's 69 84%   
Sat, Jan 31 131 Pacific 66 98 San Francisco 73 74%   
Sat, Jan 31 194 Oregon St. 74 212 San Diego 77 58%   
Sat, Jan 31 204 Portland 74 138 Washington St. 81 75%   
Sat, Jan 31 155 Loyola Marymount 70 50 Santa Clara 77 76%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Gonzaga 1.1 94.0 5.2 0.8 0.0
St. Mary's 2.3 10.0 54.1 35.1 0.8 0.1
Santa Clara 2.4 7.5 48.9 41.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 4.7 0.0 0.8 5.1 51.8 21.2 11.3 5.5 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Seattle 6.3 0.1 0.7 16.1 23.1 20.9 15.9 10.9 6.3 4.0 1.7 0.4
Pacific 5.4 0.3 2.2 33.6 24.1 18.0 11.8 6.0 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
Washington St. 6.2 0.1 0.8 17.4 22.7 19.4 16.0 11.7 7.0 3.3 1.5 0.2
Loyola Marymount 8.1 0.1 4.4 8.3 11.0 13.8 16.3 17.5 14.4 11.6 2.7
Oregon St. 8.7 0.0 1.8 4.4 7.6 12.6 16.6 19.8 19.4 14.9 2.9
Portland 8.9 0.0 1.1 3.9 7.0 10.6 14.8 19.5 21.5 17.8 3.8
San Diego 8.2 0.1 4.0 7.4 11.3 15.0 16.6 15.7 13.3 13.8 2.9
Pepperdine 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.9 7.5 16.2 68.9

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 17 - 1 29 - 2 0.0 0.1 1.1 6.0 20.7 39.5 32.5
St. Mary's 14 - 4 24 - 6 0.0 0.3 2.0 8.0 19.6 30.1 27.1 11.3 1.7
Santa Clara 14 - 4 22 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.8 10.7 20.8 27.7 23.1 11.0 2.0
San Francisco 10 - 8 17 - 13 0.1 1.4 5.8 15.2 25.7 25.9 17.7 6.7 1.3 0.1
Seattle 8 - 10 17 - 12 0.1 0.7 3.5 10.1 20.1 26.2 22.8 12.5 3.5 0.5
Pacific 9 - 9 16 - 13 0.6 4.4 12.8 23.2 26.9 20.0 9.3 2.6 0.4 0.0
Washington St. 8 - 10 12 - 18 0.5 3.2 10.8 20.5 25.7 22.5 12.2 4.0 0.6 0.0
Loyola Marymount 6 - 12 14 - 16 0.3 2.0 7.5 16.5 23.9 24.0 15.9 7.5 2.1 0.3
Oregon St. 6 - 12 13 - 18 1.7 8.9 22.1 28.9 23.1 11.0 3.5 0.7 0.1
Portland 6 - 12 11 - 18 2.4 11.6 24.5 28.7 20.6 9.3 2.5 0.4 0.0
San Diego 7 - 11 10 - 19 1.5 7.7 16.3 24.4 23.1 16.3 8.0 2.4 0.4 0.0
Pepperdine 3 - 15 6 - 23 7.7 21.7 28.2 23.1 12.4 5.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 94.0% 83.9 9.2 0.9
St. Mary's 10.0% 3.6 5.4 0.9
Santa Clara 7.5% 2.0 4.6 0.9
San Francisco 0.0% 0.0
Seattle
Pacific
Washington St.
Loyola Marymount
Oregon St.
Portland
San Diego
Pepperdine


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 100.0% 72.5% 27.5% 3   8.2 15.9 22.1 26.4 16.8 7.8 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
St. Mary's 40.8% 15.0% 25.8% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.0 4.6 10.6 22.0 0.3 59.2 30.4%
Santa Clara 24.6% 10.5% 14.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.4 6.6 13.9 0.3 75.4 15.7%
San Francisco 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 98.7 0.0%
Seattle 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.0 99.7 0.0%
Pacific 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Washington St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.7 40.4 51.9 7.7 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.5 49.8 46.1 4.1 0.0
2nd Round 95.1% 1.1 4.9 77.7 17.1 0.4
Sweet Sixteen 61.7% 0.6 38.3 59.3 2.4 0.0
Elite Eight 30.3% 0.3 69.7 30.0 0.3
Final Four 14.2% 0.1 85.8 14.2 0.0
Final Game 6.8% 0.1 93.2 6.8
Champion 3.0% 0.0 97.0 3.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 93.3% 59.7% 29.4% 13.9% 6.7% 3.0%
St. Mary's 40.8% 17.1% 32.5% 12.8% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Santa Clara 24.6% 9.5% 19.7% 6.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%