Pacific
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.7 #131
Expected Predictive Rating +2.4 #125
Pace 64.6 #292
Improvement -0.3 #197

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #136 B- C D- C C
Defense #138 C+ B- C- C- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #146 1.11 #237 -0.3 #189
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #131 0.90 #31 +2.4 #63
Three Pointers 38% #254 1.13 #35 +0.5 #158
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #102 +2.7 #103
Freethrows 0.28 #250 76% #69 0.21 #198
Second Chance 35.0% #61 0.95 #314 0.33 #148
Turnovers 19.3% #338
Total Offense +1.0 #136

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #343 1.15 #158 +5.1 #40
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #22 0.76 #177 -2.9 #346
Three Pointers 42% #154 0.99 #132 +0.2 #170
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #103 +2.4 #103
Freethrows 0.33 #267 71% #139 0.23 #252
Second Chance 25.8% #34 1.08 #235 0.28 #86
Turnovers 15.1% #265
Total Defense +0.8 #138

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #216 -3.1% #16
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.6% #88 -1.6% #154
Possession Length 18.9 #326 17.3 #171
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #308 0.16 #149
Improvement +1.2 #117 -1.5 #276

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.1 12.4
.500 or above 85.2% 90.8% 67.1%
.500 or above in Conference 59.1% 67.2% 33.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Home) - 76.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 41 - 9
Quad 35 - 46 - 13
Quad 411 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 74 @Nevada L 77 - 78 20% -2  0 - 1 +10 +12 A F A+ -2 B- C- C
 Wed, Nov 12 251 Long Beach St. W 69 - 66 82% -3  1 - 1 -5 -6 F A- F +1 A- D- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 216 @Cal St. Fullerton W 85 - 73 58% +14  2 - 1 +12 +4 A+ F+ F +7 A+ B+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 102 @Florida Atlantic L 59 - 82 27% -11  2 - 2 -15 -5 C D F -12 F A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 236 Stony Brook W 86 - 58 72% +17  3 - 2 +24 +15 A+ F+ F +10 A+ B+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 283 Jacksonville W 68 - 53 80% +7  4 - 2 +8 +3 D- B- C- +7 A+ A+ F+
 Sat, Nov 29 293 Sacramento St. W 68 - 54 87% +6  5 - 2 +3 -11 D+ D F +14 A+ A C
 Wed, Dec 3 347 @Air Force W 80 - 65 84% +9  6 - 2 +6 +18 C+ A+ A- -9 C- D- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 66 @California L 61 - 67 18% -9  6 - 3 +5 +4 C B D- +1 C+ B- C
 Tue, Dec 16 14 @BYU L 57 - 93 4% -18  6 - 4 -14 -8 D+ B+ F -6 B C C-
 Sun, Dec 21 260 Nicholls St. W 95 - 82 83% +7  7 - 4 +5 +16 A+ A+ F -11 F A+ A-
 Sun, Dec 28 212 @San Diego L 54 - 66 57% -9  7 - 5 0 - 1 -12 -14 F+ F F +1 A+ D F+
 Tue, Dec 30 155 @Loyola Marymount L 71 - 80 44% +1  7 - 6 0 - 2 -6 +3 D B- D -9 F+ A+ F+
 Fri, Jan 2 194 Oregon St. W 84 - 53 75% +17  8 - 6 1 - 2 +26 +18 A+ B- C- +11 A+ C B-
 Sun, Jan 4 280 Pepperdine W 74 - 69 86% +3  9 - 6 2 - 2 -5 +2 B A+ F -7 C- B- D
 Thu, Jan 8 204 @Portland L 89 - 90 OT 56% -4  9 - 7 2 - 3 -1 +13 C+ C+ B+ -14 D F+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 212 San Diego W 77 - 70 77% -6  10 - 7 3 - 3 +1 +1 F D+ A- +0 B B C
 Wed, Jan 14 50 @Santa Clara L 69 - 85 14% -4  10 - 8 3 - 4 -2 +7 A+ B- F -10 C+ C F
 Sat, Jan 17 194 @Oregon St. W 81 - 64 53% +6  11 - 8 4 - 4 +18 +19 A+ C B+ +2 B C D-
 Sat, Jan 24 123 Seattle W 56 - 54 58% +8  12 - 8 5 - 4 +2 -5 C C- D +7 C+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 28 204 Portland W 76 - 69 76%
 Sat, Jan 31 98 @San Francisco L 66 - 73 26%
 Wed, Feb 4 50 Santa Clara L 71 - 77 29%
 Sat, Feb 7 280 @Pepperdine W 72 - 66 70%
 Wed, Feb 11 155 Loyola Marymount W 71 - 67 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 42 St. Mary's L 66 - 73 25%
 Wed, Feb 18 138 @Washington St. L 73 - 76 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 11 @Gonzaga L 64 - 85 3%
 Sat, Feb 28 98 San Francisco L 69 - 70 47%
Totals 16 - 13 9 - 9 +2 +1 B- C D- +1 C+ B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.6 8.2 15.2 8.1 1.5 0.1 33.6 4th
5th 0.1 5.7 13.6 4.5 0.2 24.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 11.1 4.7 0.2 18.0 6th
7th 0.2 6.1 5.1 0.4 11.8 7th
8th 1.4 4.0 0.6 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.3 0.7 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.2 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.6 4.4 12.8 23.2 26.9 20.0 9.3 2.6 0.4 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.4% 0.4
12-6 2.6% 1.2% 1.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 2.6
11-7 9.3% 0.7% 0.7% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.2
10-8 20.0% 0.5% 0.5% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 19.9
9-9 26.9% 0.1% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.8
8-10 23.2% 0.1% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 23.2
7-11 12.8% 12.8
6-12 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 4.4
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 12.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%