San Diego
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.1 #212
Expected Predictive Rating -5.4 #243
Pace 75.2 #37
Improvement +4.0 #28

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #196 C C C D C-
Defense #236 C- D- B+ D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #320 1.25 #86 -1.8 #250
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #196 0.71 #246 -0.8 #219
Three Pointers 48% #52 1.03 #171 +3.6 #63
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #150 +1.0 #149
Freethrows 0.24 #331 74% #118 0.18 #308
Second Chance 29.9% #207 1.03 #209 0.31 #203
Turnovers 16.9% #216
Total Offense -1.2 #196

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #155 1.27 #312 -2.9 #278
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #274 0.81 #275 +0.6 #146
Three Pointers 43% #129 0.96 #100 +0.4 #161
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #244 -1.9 #243
Freethrows 0.34 #303 71% #121 0.24 #289
Second Chance 35.5% #333 1.11 #276 0.39 #330
Turnovers 19.6% #36
Total Defense -1.9 #236

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.6% #228 0.9% #252
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.6% #134 2.7% #229
Possession Length 17.3 #166 16.6 #60
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #68 0.25 #357
Improvement +2.1 #78 +2.0 #69

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 n/a 15.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.9% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 10.8% 13.3% 10.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.1% 6.4% 8.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 18.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 50 - 9
Quad 34 - 64 - 16
Quad 46 - 510 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 225 Idaho St. L 68 - 71 64% -7  0 - 1 -10 -3 C D C- -7 C C- D+
 Wed, Nov 12 189 Idaho W 78 - 74 57% +5  1 - 1 -1 +5 A+ B- F -6 C- C- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 285 Grambling St. W 78 - 68 76% +7  2 - 1 -0 -2 F+ F C- +1 A- D C
 Fri, Nov 21 291 UC Riverside L 71 - 85 76% -10  2 - 2 -24 -4 F+ C+ D -21 F F D
 Tue, Nov 25 139 California Baptist L 61 - 76 34% -2  2 - 3 -14 -10 C- F+ D -3 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 30 251 @Long Beach St. L 72 - 76 46% +1  2 - 4 -6 +6 B- A+ F -13 D+ F F
 Fri, Dec 5 249 @San Jose St. L 69 - 86 45% -18  2 - 5 -19 -9 F C A- -9 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 9 48 USC L 81 - 94 15% -5  2 - 6 -5 +4 C B C- -8 F D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 313 Northern Arizona W 78 - 69 80% +6  3 - 6 -3 +2 C+ A+ F -4 D+ F A+
 Fri, Dec 19 114 @UC San Diego L 72 - 82 18% +7 
 Mon, Dec 22 47 @Washington L 56 - 86 6% -16  3 - 7 -16 -13 C- D- F -1 A- F B-
 Sun, Dec 28 131 Pacific W 66 - 54 43% +9  4 - 7 1 - 0 +11 -1 F+ B+ B +13 A A- A+
 Tue, Dec 30 11 Gonzaga L 93 - 99 4% -10  4 - 8 1 - 1 +11 +17 A+ C+ A+ -5 C F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 98 @San Francisco L 64 - 74 14% -4  4 - 9 1 - 2 -2 -6 C+ F C- +4 A D+ C
 Sun, Jan 4 50 @Santa Clara L 70 - 98 7% -12  4 - 10 1 - 3 -14 -1 B+ F C -12 C- F B+
 Thu, Jan 8 280 Pepperdine W 83 - 63 74% +12  5 - 10 2 - 3 +10 +11 A+ C C -0 C B B+
 Sat, Jan 10 131 @Pacific L 70 - 77 23% +6  5 - 11 2 - 4 -2 -0 C D+ D+ -2 A+ C D-
 Thu, Jan 15 123 @Seattle L 64 - 75 21% -6  5 - 12 2 - 5 -5 -2 C D- D+ -3 D- B- B
 Wed, Jan 21 138 Washington St. W 96 - 92 45% +8  6 - 12 3 - 5 +2 +20 A+ A- A+ -18 C F D-
 Sat, Jan 24 50 Santa Clara L 73 - 85 16% -14  6 - 13 3 - 6 -4 -1 C- F A -3 F A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 280 @Pepperdine W 75 - 74 53%
 Sat, Jan 31 194 Oregon St. W 77 - 75 57%
 Wed, Feb 4 42 @St. Mary's L 66 - 84 5%
 Sat, Feb 7 155 @Loyola Marymount L 71 - 77 27%
 Wed, Feb 11 204 Portland W 80 - 77 60%
 Sun, Feb 15 98 San Francisco L 73 - 78 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 155 Loyola Marymount L 74 - 75 48%
 Wed, Feb 25 194 @Oregon St. L 74 - 78 36%
 Sat, Feb 28 204 @Portland L 77 - 80 39%
Totals 10 - 19 7 - 11 -3 -1 C C C -2 C- D- B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.9 3.8 0.6 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 7.2 2.0 0.1 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.5 9.1 5.1 0.3 15.0 7th
8th 0.0 6.0 9.7 0.9 0.0 16.6 8th
9th 1.6 12.0 2.1 0.0 15.7 9th
10th 0.3 7.4 5.4 0.1 13.3 10th
11th 0.7 5.6 7.0 0.5 13.8 11th
12th 0.8 1.8 0.2 2.9 12th
Total 1.5 7.7 16.3 24.4 23.1 16.3 8.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.4
10-8 2.4% 2.4
9-9 8.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 7.9
8-10 16.3% 16.3
7-11 23.1% 23.1
6-12 24.4% 24.4
5-13 16.3% 16.3
4-14 7.7% 7.7
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%