Oregon St.
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.1 #194
Expected Predictive Rating -0.8 #180
Pace 64.3 #301
Improvement -2.2 #289

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #180 C- C C- A C
Defense #230 C C D+ D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #298 1.05 #299 -4.2 #318
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #231 0.82 #93 -0.5 #199
Three Pointers 48% #50 1.02 #179 +3.6 #65
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #211 -1.1 #211
Freethrows 0.37 #13 77% #26 0.29 #6
Second Chance 24.4% #330 1.26 #11 0.31 #202
Turnovers 17.5% #255
Total Offense -0.5 #180

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #62 1.12 #135 -1.9 #245
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #299 0.74 #142 +1.7 #64
Three Pointers 40% #202 0.98 #128 +1.1 #142
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #153 +0.8 #151
Freethrows 0.33 #283 75% #324 0.25 #300
Second Chance 32.7% #271 0.95 #60 0.31 #155
Turnovers 14.5% #296
Total Defense -1.6 #230

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #188 1.7% #321
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.3% #210 -3.3% #120
Possession Length 17.7 #209 17.3 #181
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #346 0.18 #207
Improvement -0.8 #223 -1.3 #260

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.3 n/a
.500 or above 5.6% 13.4% 2.2%
.500 or above in Conference 4.2% 10.7% 1.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.0% 2.7% 11.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Away) - 31.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 37 - 88 - 16
Quad 45 - 314 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 134 North Dakota St. W 67 - 65 47% +1  1 - 0 +1 -3 C+ F C+ +4 B A F
 Fri, Nov 7 136 Illinois-Chicago W 76 - 73 48% +3  2 - 0 +1 +4 A- A+ F -3 D A+ B
 Wed, Nov 12 140 North Texas W 66 - 64 48% -6  3 - 0 +0 +5 C- D A+ -4 D- C A-
 Mon, Nov 17 72 @Oregon L 75 - 87 12% -7  3 - 1 -1 +9 C B- C- -11 D C- D
 Fri, Nov 21 270 Evansville L 69 - 73 65% -4  3 - 2 -10 -1 F A+ D -9 C D- D+
 Sat, Nov 22 227 Iona L 84 - 91 2OT 56% +5  3 - 3 -11 -4 C F D+ -6 C C D+
 Mon, Nov 24 170 Massachusetts L 65 - 73 45% -2  3 - 4 -9 -4 B- F F -5 B+ F+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 139 California Baptist L 69 - 75 48% -2  3 - 5 -8 -0 B F+ D- -8 D- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 199 Vermont W 80 - 58 63% +16  4 - 5 +16 +13 A+ D+ D +6 A- B+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 282 Southern Utah W 81 - 70 77% +11  5 - 5 +1 +4 B+ D+ F -3 B- F C
 Sat, Dec 13 157 Montana St. W 67 - 57 53% +4  6 - 5 +7 -1 F A D+ +10 A+ D- B-
 Wed, Dec 17 117 Sam Houston St. L 75 - 85 42% -8  6 - 6 -10 -3 C D- B+ -7 C C C
 Sun, Dec 21 80 @Arizona St. W 78 - 75 12% -1  7 - 6 +13 +12 B+ F+ B- +1 A A C-
 Sun, Dec 28 50 Santa Clara L 64 - 102 18% -22  7 - 7 0 - 1 -30 -4 C D D -27 F A+ D
 Tue, Dec 30 98 San Francisco W 70 - 62 33% +3  8 - 7 1 - 1 +10 +6 A+ F D +5 A+ A- D+
 Fri, Jan 2 131 @Pacific L 53 - 84 25% -17  8 - 8 1 - 2 -26 -11 F C+ F+ -19 F C- D-
 Sun, Jan 4 138 @Washington St. L 67 - 81 27% -11  8 - 9 1 - 3 -10 -1 C- C+ C -10 C F C
 Thu, Jan 8 123 Seattle W 68 - 55 43% +2  9 - 9 2 - 3 +13 +2 F A+ C+ +10 A+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 204 @Portland L 76 - 82 41% +2  9 - 10 2 - 4 -6 +9 B- D B+ -15 B- D- F
 Wed, Jan 14 155 Loyola Marymount W 76 - 70 52% +1  10 - 10 3 - 4 +3 +5 F+ A B+ -1 A+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 131 Pacific L 64 - 81 47% -6  10 - 11 3 - 5 -18 -1 D+ C+ C+ -19 F+ C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 42 @St. Mary's L 51 - 81 7% -14  10 - 12 3 - 6 -15 -8 F F C -10 C D F
 Wed, Jan 28 155 @Loyola Marymount L 67 - 72 31%
 Sat, Jan 31 212 @San Diego L 75 - 77 43%
 Wed, Feb 4 138 Washington St. L 74 - 75 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 11 Gonzaga L 66 - 85 4%
 Thu, Feb 12 98 @San Francisco L 64 - 75 16%
 Sun, Feb 15 123 @Seattle L 63 - 71 23%
 Sat, Feb 21 280 Pepperdine W 73 - 65 77%
 Wed, Feb 25 212 San Diego W 78 - 74 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 50 @Santa Clara L 66 - 82 7%
Totals 13 - 18 6 - 12 -2 +0 C- C C- -2 C C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 5.0 0.6 7.6 6th
7th 0.6 9.0 3.0 0.1 12.6 7th
8th 0.1 6.5 9.6 0.4 0.0 16.6 8th
9th 0.1 2.8 14.5 2.4 19.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 11.2 6.8 0.1 19.4 10th
11th 0.6 6.0 7.8 0.6 14.9 11th
12th 1.0 1.6 0.3 2.9 12th
Total 1.7 8.9 22.1 28.9 23.1 11.0 3.5 0.7 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.7% 0.7
9-9 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 3.5
8-10 11.0% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 11.0
7-11 23.1% 23.1
6-12 28.9% 28.9
5-13 22.1% 22.1
4-14 8.9% 8.9
3-15 1.7% 1.7
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%