Gonzaga
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +19.7 #11
Expected Predictive Rating +26.2 #6
Pace 74.3 #50
Improvement -6.0 #361

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #15 A- A- B+ C- D+
Defense #13 A- A A- B- A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #134 1.37 #11 +5.3 #26
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #59 0.90 #30 +4.4 #19
Three Pointers 33% #331 1.12 #52 -2.5 #269
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #22 +7.2 #21
Freethrows 0.29 #218 69% #280 0.20 #240
Second Chance 37.1% #26 1.16 #48 0.43 #27
Turnovers 13.4% #25
Total Offense +10.3 #15

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #356 1.01 #29 +8.0 #8
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #14 0.66 #50 -1.7 #303
Three Pointers 43% #108 0.89 #40 +1.5 #124
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #10 +7.9 #10
Freethrows 0.28 #112 68% #28 0.19 #75
Second Chance 23.5% #10 0.89 #24 0.21 #6
Turnovers 20.5% #17
Total Defense +9.4 #13

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #284 -3.4% #12
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 15.8% #10 -12.3% #14
Possession Length 15.1 #21 18.4 #316
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #28 0.12 #29
Improvement -2.7 #327 -3.2 #336

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 8.2% 9.5% 0.8%
Top 2 Seed 24.1% 27.5% 5.5%
Top 4 Seed 72.6% 76.7% 49.7%
Top 6 Seed 97.2% 98.1% 92.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 99.9% 99.7%
Average Seed 3.6 3.5 4.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 94.0% 97.5% 74.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round93.3% 94.2% 88.6%
Sweet Sixteen59.7% 61.3% 50.8%
Elite Eight29.4% 30.6% 22.5%
Final Four13.9% 14.7% 9.8%
Championship Game6.7% 7.1% 4.5%
National Champion3.0% 3.1% 2.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Home) - 84.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b4 - 16 - 2
Quad 28 - 013 - 2
Quad 39 - 023 - 2
Quad 48 - 031 - 2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 308 Texas Southern W 98 - 43 99% +20  1 - 0 +43 +15 C+ A+ D- +26 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 52 Oklahoma W 83 - 68 88% +13  2 - 0 +22 +7 B C+ A+ +14 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 53 Creighton W 90 - 63 88% +11  3 - 0 +34 +15 A+ C A +18 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 80 @Arizona St. W 77 - 65 81% +7  4 - 0 +22 +8 C B- C- +15 A+ B+ C
 Mon, Nov 17 282 Southern Utah W 122 - 50 99% +34  5 - 0 +62 +27 A+ A+ B +24 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 16 Alabama W 95 - 85 57% +1  6 - 0 +28 +19 B+ A+ C+ +8 C+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 105 Maryland W 100 - 61 92% +19  7 - 0 +43 +30 A+ A+ C +14 A+ B A+
 Wed, Nov 26 1 Michigan L 61 - 101 32% -25  7 - 1 -15 -7 D+ D+ A -4 F A+ B
 Fri, Dec 5 27 Kentucky W 94 - 59 67% +21  8 - 1 +50 +28 A+ A- A+ +22 A+ A- C+
 Sun, Dec 7 348 North Florida W 109 - 58 100% +26  9 - 1 +36 +12 B+ A+ D +18 A+ A A
 Sat, Dec 13 37 UCLA W 82 - 72 73% +2  10 - 1 +23 +21 A+ F+ A+ +3 C A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 206 Campbell W 98 - 70 98% +14  11 - 1 +22 +6 A- C+ D+ +12 B A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 72 Oregon W 91 - 82 87% +4  12 - 1 +17 +25 A- B- A+ -8 C D C-
 Sun, Dec 28 280 @Pepperdine W 96 - 56 98% +22  13 - 1 1 - 0 +36 +23 A C+ A- +13 A+ C C+
 Tue, Dec 30 212 @San Diego W 99 - 93 96% +10  14 - 1 2 - 0 +6 +14 B A+ C+ -9 F B+ D-
 Fri, Jan 2 123 Seattle W 80 - 72 OT 96% -6  15 - 1 3 - 0 +8 +6 B- C+ A+ +1 B+ C- B-
 Sun, Jan 4 155 Loyola Marymount W 82 - 47 97% +15  16 - 1 4 - 0 +32 +12 A+ B+ A +21 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 8 50 Santa Clara W 89 - 77 87% +6  17 - 1 5 - 0 +20 +15 A+ A+ A- +4 A- A- A
 Thu, Jan 15 138 @Washington St. W 86 - 65 92% +10  18 - 1 6 - 0 +25 +16 C+ A+ B+ +10 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 123 @Seattle W 71 - 50 90% +8  19 - 1 7 - 0 +27 +7 B- A+ C- +19 A+ C+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 280 Pepperdine W 84 - 60 99% +15  20 - 1 8 - 0 +14 +9 D- A+ A+ +5 B B- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 98 San Francisco W 68 - 66 94% +8  21 - 1 9 - 0 +4 -1 D C+ B+ +6 C A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 42 St. Mary's W 80 - 69 85%
 Wed, Feb 4 204 @Portland W 88 - 69 97%
 Sat, Feb 7 194 @Oregon St. W 85 - 66 96%
 Tue, Feb 10 138 Washington St. W 91 - 70 98%
 Sat, Feb 14 50 @Santa Clara W 83 - 77 72%
 Wed, Feb 18 98 @San Francisco W 80 - 69 85%
 Sat, Feb 21 131 Pacific W 85 - 64 97%
 Wed, Feb 25 204 Portland W 91 - 66 99%
 Sat, Feb 28 42 @St. Mary's W 77 - 72 67%
Totals 29 - 2 17 - 1 +20 +10 A- A- B+ +9 A- A A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 2.7 19.1 39.5 32.5 94.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 3.0 1.6 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.1 6.0 20.7 39.5 32.5 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 32.5    32.5
17-1 100.0% 39.5    38.6 0.9
16-2 92.2% 19.1    11.8 6.9 0.4
15-3 45.4% 2.7    0.8 1.4 0.5
14-4 6.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 3.7% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 94.0% 94.0 83.9 9.2 0.9



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 32.5% 100.0% 78.6% 21.4% 2.4 7.3 11.6 8.9 4.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
17-1 39.5% 100.0% 73.7% 26.3% 3.7 0.9 4.0 10.8 15.1 6.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 20.7% 100.0% 65.9% 34.1% 4.7 0.1 0.3 2.2 6.2 7.1 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-3 6.0% 99.8% 59.5% 40.3% 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
14-4 1.1% 99.5% 42.3% 57.3% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
13-5 0.1% 100.0% 59.3% 40.7% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 72.5% 27.5% 3.6 0.0 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 25.6% 100.0% 2.2 26.0 39.6 26.1 7.9 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.2% 100.0% 3.0 9.9 21.4 32.3 29.1 7.0 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8% 99.7% 3.1 8.7 19.8 33.0 30.2 6.7 1.1 0.3