Gonzaga
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+21.8#5
Expected Predictive Rating+26.4#5
Pace74.3#58
Improvement+0.3#169

Offense
Total Offense+11.8#6
First Shot+9.9#9
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#65
Layup/Dunks+9.0#3
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#101
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#227
Freethrows+0.7#134
Improvement+2.1#46

Defense
Total Defense+9.9#9
First Shot+8.2#10
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#72
Layups/Dunks+10.5#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#302
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#154
Freethrows-1.1#255
Improvement-1.8#309
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.7% 3.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 23.8% 23.9% 7.7%
Top 2 Seed 50.2% 50.3% 23.1%
Top 4 Seed 84.5% 84.6% 62.5%
Top 6 Seed 96.6% 96.7% 91.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 99.9% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 99.8% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.8 2.8 4.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 93.2% 93.2% 86.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
First Round99.9% 99.9% 99.0%
Second Round95.2% 95.2% 95.2%
Sweet Sixteen71.9% 71.9% 56.7%
Elite Eight45.0% 45.0% 33.7%
Final Four25.4% 25.4% 19.2%
Championship Game13.5% 13.6% 8.7%
National Champion6.9% 6.9% 4.8%

Next Game: Campbell (Home) - 99.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b4 - 06 - 2
Quad 27 - 013 - 2
Quad 38 - 022 - 2
Quad 49 - 031 - 2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 306 Texas Southern W 98-43 99%     1 - 0 +43.8 +17.5 +24.4
  Sat, Nov 8 44 Oklahoma W 83-68 89%     2 - 0 +23.3 +7.1 +15.4
  Tue, Nov 11 59 Creighton W 90-63 92%     3 - 0 +33.3 +15.5 +16.6
  Fri, Nov 14 61 @Arizona St. W 77-65 82%     4 - 0 +24.1 +9.3 +14.8
  Mon, Nov 17 318 Southern Utah W 122-50 99.5%    5 - 0 +59.7 +26.1 +23.3
  Mon, Nov 24 15 Alabama W 95-85 66%     6 - 0 +27.6 +19.1 +7.6
  Tue, Nov 25 94 Maryland W 100-61 93%     7 - 0 +44.5 +29.8 +14.7
  Wed, Nov 26 1 Michigan L 61-101 31%     7 - 1 -13.1 -5.6 -2.3
  Fri, Dec 5 21 Kentucky W 94-59 72%     8 - 1 +50.6 +28.5 +21.8
  Sun, Dec 7 344 North Florida W 109-58 99.7%    9 - 1 +36.4 +16.4 +15.1
  Sat, Dec 13 30 UCLA W 82-72 77%     10 - 1 +23.9 +20.5 +4.1
  Wed, Dec 17 226 Campbell W 94-66 99.7%   
  Sun, Dec 21 66 Oregon W 85-72 89%    
  Sun, Dec 28 293 @Pepperdine W 86-60 99%    
  Tue, Dec 30 246 @San Diego W 93-69 99%    
  Fri, Jan 2 119 Seattle W 86-64 98%    
  Sun, Jan 4 134 Loyola Marymount W 85-62 98%    
  Thu, Jan 8 73 Santa Clara W 88-71 94%    
  Thu, Jan 15 165 @Washington St. W 89-70 96%    
  Sat, Jan 17 119 @Seattle W 83-67 92%    
  Wed, Jan 21 293 Pepperdine W 89-57 99.8%   
  Sat, Jan 24 96 San Francisco W 85-66 96%    
  Sat, Jan 31 38 St. Mary's W 80-67 87%    
  Wed, Feb 4 269 @Portland W 90-66 99%    
  Sat, Feb 7 157 @Oregon St. W 83-64 95%    
  Tue, Feb 10 165 Washington St. W 92-67 99%    
  Sat, Feb 14 73 @Santa Clara W 85-74 84%    
  Wed, Feb 18 96 @San Francisco W 82-69 89%    
  Sat, Feb 21 129 Pacific W 86-63 98%    
  Wed, Feb 25 269 Portland W 93-63 99.7%   
  Sat, Feb 28 38 @St. Mary's W 77-70 72%    
Projected Record 29 - 2 17 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.1 16.5 35.4 36.5 93.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.5 2.0 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.7 18.6 35.4 36.5 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 36.5    36.5
17-1 100.0% 35.4    33.7 1.8
16-2 89.0% 16.5    12.7 3.7 0.1
15-3 61.8% 4.1    2.3 1.7 0.2
14-4 29.6% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 93.2% 93.2 85.3 7.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 36.5% 100.0% 84.4% 15.6% 1.7 18.0 13.7 4.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 35.4% 100.0% 79.8% 20.2% 2.6 5.6 11.5 10.7 6.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 18.6% 100.0% 73.9% 26.0% 4.1 0.2 1.2 4.1 6.8 4.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-3 6.7% 99.9% 67.1% 32.8% 5.4 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.0 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.7%
14-4 2.2% 99.5% 58.1% 41.4% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 98.9%
13-5 0.5% 97.9% 46.9% 51.0% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.1%
12-6 0.1% 92.1% 44.7% 47.4% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.7%
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 78.8% 21.1% 2.8 23.8 26.4 19.2 15.1 7.9 4.2 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 28.1% 100.0% 1.5 54.8 36.9 7.7 0.7 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.6% 100.0% 2.1 30.0 40.2 23.9 5.6 0.1 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6% 100.0% 2.1 28.5 38.5 23.7 8.7 0.6