Pepperdine
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.9 #280
Expected Predictive Rating -8.3 #303
Pace 67.7 #219
Improvement -1.5 #257

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #322 D+ D D C C-
Defense #210 C C- C B D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #251 1.13 #215 -2.1 #255
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #134 0.76 #165 +0.8 #132
Three Pointers 41% #174 0.92 #303 -1.9 #247
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #273 -3.1 #273
Freethrows 0.28 #249 78% #15 0.22 #170
Second Chance 28.7% #236 0.89 #343 0.26 #312
Turnovers 18.9% #323
Total Offense -5.8 #322

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #98 1.19 #217 -2.5 #260
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #358 0.73 #135 +3.0 #8
Three Pointers 45% #71 0.96 #103 -0.8 #216
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #192 -0.3 #191
Freethrows 0.25 #36 73% #213 0.18 #40
Second Chance 31.8% #242 1.08 #239 0.34 #244
Turnovers 16.4% #184
Total Defense -1.0 #210

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #247 2.4% #355
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.3% #267 -1.7% #153
Possession Length 18.2 #261 17.3 #164
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #350 0.16 #147
Improvement -0.4 #204 -1.1 #251

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 84.4% 75.3% 92.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Home) - 47.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 31 - 101 - 18
Quad 45 - 56 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 37 @UCLA L 63 - 74 3% -10  0 - 1 +5 +5 D+ A+ C -1 B F+ B-
 Sat, Nov 15 197 Northern Colorado L 81 - 88 OT 44% -5  0 - 2 -12 -9 D- F C- -3 C+ D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 219 New Orleans W 90 - 79 49% +6  1 - 2 +5 +6 B F A+ -3 C C A-
 Fri, Nov 21 107 Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 63 23% +3  1 - 3 -2 -8 D+ D F +6 A- F B-
 Wed, Nov 26 152 Fresno St. L 53 - 76 24% -7  1 - 4 -22 -16 F C F -7 D+ F+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 216 @Cal St. Fullerton L 69 - 83 26% -5  1 - 5 -14 -4 F F+ C+ -11 C- F D-
 Tue, Dec 2 252 Abilene Christian L 63 - 71 55% -8  1 - 6 -16 -4 D- F B- -13 D- D+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 199 Vermont L 56 - 65 45% -1  1 - 7 -15 -14 F F F -2 D+ A- B+
 Sat, Dec 13 301 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 70 - 62 44% +4  2 - 7 +3 -2 B+ F F +5 A- A- B
 Thu, Dec 18 251 @Long Beach St. L 78 - 81 32% +2  2 - 8 -5 +4 A A- F -9 F+ C D-
 Sat, Dec 20 238 Rice W 84 - 62 52% +8  3 - 8 +15 +6 A C F +9 A+ D+ C+
 Sun, Dec 28 11 Gonzaga L 56 - 96 2% -22  3 - 9 0 - 1 -23 -10 D- B- C+ -13 D+ B- C-
 Tue, Dec 30 42 St. Mary's L 45 - 72 8% -12  3 - 10 0 - 2 -18 -17 F C- F -5 C- B C
 Fri, Jan 2 50 @Santa Clara L 63 - 82 4% -7  3 - 11 0 - 3 -5 -8 D- C- F +3 D+ A+ C
 Sun, Jan 4 131 @Pacific L 69 - 74 14% -3  3 - 12 0 - 4 -0 +2 C D C- -2 C- F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 212 @San Diego L 63 - 83 26% -12  3 - 13 0 - 5 -20 -8 D F D- -13 F D C-
 Sat, Jan 10 98 San Francisco L 60 - 80 19% -12  3 - 14 0 - 6 -18 -8 F D+ A -11 D- B- B-
 Wed, Jan 14 204 Portland W 67 - 63 46% +0  4 - 14 1 - 6 -2 -5 C- B- D +4 A- A- D+
 Wed, Jan 21 11 @Gonzaga L 60 - 84 1% -15  4 - 15 1 - 7 -1 -1 C C D+ -0 A+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 24 138 @Washington St. L 79 - 95 15% -12  4 - 16 1 - 8 -12 +5 A- F F -16 F F+ C-
 Wed, Jan 28 212 San Diego L 74 - 75 47%
 Wed, Feb 4 123 @Seattle L 60 - 72 12%
 Sat, Feb 7 131 Pacific L 66 - 72 30%
 Wed, Feb 11 42 @St. Mary's L 58 - 80 2%
 Sat, Feb 14 155 Loyola Marymount L 66 - 70 35%
 Wed, Feb 18 204 @Portland L 68 - 75 25%
 Sat, Feb 21 194 @Oregon St. L 65 - 73 23%
 Wed, Feb 25 123 Seattle L 63 - 69 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 138 Washington St. L 71 - 76 32%
Totals 6 - 23 3 - 15 -7 -6 D+ D D -1 C C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.4 2.5 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 5.5 0.9 7.5 10th
11th 0.0 2.1 9.3 4.8 0.0 16.2 11th
12th 7.7 21.6 26.1 12.7 0.7 68.9 12th
Total 7.7 21.7 28.2 23.1 12.4 5.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 0.2% 0.2
7-11 1.4% 1.4
6-12 5.2% 5.2
5-13 12.4% 12.4
4-14 23.1% 23.1
3-15 28.2% 28.2
2-16 21.7% 21.7
1-17 7.7% 7.7
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 7.7%