Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Duke 100.0%   1   19 - 1 8 - 0 +23.5      +11.9 5 +11.6 4 67.8 213 +29.4 3 +28.0 1
18 Louisville 96.1%   6   14 - 6 4 - 4 +17.6      +10.7 13 +6.9 29 73.2 69 +14.7 33 +11.6 7
22 Virginia 99.7%   5   17 - 3 6 - 2 +16.7      +10.2 18 +6.6 36 64.2 302 +19.0 16 +19.6 2
24 North Carolina St. 92.5%   8   15 - 6 6 - 2 +15.9      +9.1 25 +6.8 32 71.8 98 +12.7 44 +14.5 4
28 North Carolina 94.6%   7   16 - 4 4 - 3 +14.8      +9.7 20 +5.1 53 71.5 108 +16.9 23 +11.6 8
32 Clemson 95.9%   7   17 - 4 7 - 1 +14.2      +5.3 67 +9.0 14 62.9 328 +16.7 26 +19.5 3
37 SMU 87.3%   8   15 - 5 4 - 3 +13.9      +9.8 19 +4.0 70 71.5 107 +15.2 30 +14.4 5
40 Miami (FL) 77.0%   10   17 - 4 6 - 2 +12.9      +6.7 50 +6.2 40 71.0 122 +14.7 34 +14.3 6
60 Virginia Tech 29.1%   16 - 6 5 - 4 +9.4      +4.6 74 +4.8 58 69.9 151 +11.8 50 +11.1 9
68 California 14.1%   14 - 6 3 - 5 +8.3      +3.1 96 +5.2 52 68.5 189 +11.0 52 +9.2 11
69 Wake Forest 3.7%   11 - 10 2 - 6 +8.3      +3.9 85 +4.4 67 71.7 99 +7.7 74 +5.7 13
76 Syracuse 1.9%   12 - 9 3 - 5 +7.6      +4.0 82 +3.7 76 69.7 160 +6.3 87 +5.2 14
80 Notre Dame 1.2%   11 - 10 2 - 6 +7.1      +3.5 89 +3.7 75 63.7 313 +6.9 80 +4.1 16
83 Stanford 11.3%   14 - 7 3 - 5 +6.8      +3.1 95 +3.7 74 68.9 175 +10.3 58 +9.8 10
94 Pittsburgh 0.1%   9 - 12 2 - 6 +5.8      +4.1 81 +1.7 114 63.1 322 +2.4 125 +2.9 17
105 Florida St. 0.1%   9 - 12 2 - 6 +4.4      +2.4 108 +2.1 109 77.2 20 +2.8 116 +6.2 12
110 Georgia Tech 0.0%   11 - 10 2 - 6 +3.5      -0.3 177 +3.9 71 75.0 39 +1.6 138 +2.7 18
131 Boston College 0.0%   9 - 11 2 - 5 +1.7      -3.1 256 +4.7 61 66.4 250 -0.9 179 +4.4 15


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Jan 26 3 Duke 83 18 Louisville 52   
Tue, Jan 27 94 Pittsburgh 80 69 Wake Forest 76   
Tue, Jan 27 24 North Carolina St. 88 76 Syracuse 68   
Tue, Jan 27 110 Georgia Tech 65 60 Virginia Tech 71   
Tue, Jan 27 80 Notre Dame 97 22 Virginia 100   
Wed, Jan 28 40 Miami (FL) 79 83 Stanford 70   
Wed, Jan 28 68 California 61 105 Florida St. 63   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 31 18 Louisville 86 37 SMU 79 74%   
Sat, Jan 31 80 Notre Dame 70 76 Syracuse 73 63%   
Sat, Jan 31 68 California 70 40 Miami (FL) 78 77%   
Sat, Jan 31 24 North Carolina St. 80 69 Wake Forest 76 67%   
Sat, Jan 31 105 Florida St. 79 83 Stanford 78 52%   
Sat, Jan 31 3 Duke 80 60 Virginia Tech 69 85%   
Sat, Jan 31 32 Clemson 73 94 Pittsburgh 62 86%   
Sat, Jan 31 110 Georgia Tech 75 28 North Carolina 83 79%   
Sat, Jan 31 131 Boston College 62 22 Virginia 74 87%   
Mon, Feb 2 28 North Carolina 84 76 Syracuse 73 83%   
Tue, Feb 3 24 North Carolina St. 81 37 SMU 82 54%   
Tue, Feb 3 94 Pittsburgh 64 22 Virginia 78 90%   
Tue, Feb 3 131 Boston College 56 3 Duke 81 98%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 1.1 93.9 4.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Louisville 5.8 0.1 5.0 10.2 14.3 17.2 17.4 16.0 10.9 4.5 2.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia 2.8 8.4 45.4 23.4 12.2 5.8 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.1
North Carolina St. 4.6 1.8 15.0 17.3 18.5 15.9 13.6 8.7 5.6 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1
North Carolina 6.5 0.4 3.0 6.2 9.9 13.8 16.6 17.2 15.1 8.6 4.7 2.6 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Clemson 3.0 6.9 39.1 26.3 14.0 7.0 4.0 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
SMU 5.8 0.3 6.2 10.3 13.9 16.9 15.5 14.2 10.8 5.4 3.2 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1
Miami (FL) 4.8 1.0 12.4 15.7 18.6 18.0 14.9 9.5 5.7 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Virginia Tech 9.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.9 9.5 16.9 23.4 19.5 11.3 6.3 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.1
California 9.7 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.6 5.4 8.9 13.3 18.6 15.9 12.0 8.2 5.4 3.5 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.3
Wake Forest 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 5.1 8.8 11.4 12.8 13.7 13.2 9.9 8.5 5.7 4.7 2.1
Syracuse 12.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.8 4.0 6.8 10.0 14.0 14.9 15.2 12.2 9.7 6.0 3.2 1.3
Notre Dame 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 2.2 5.8 9.0 11.9 14.5 14.3 12.3 10.8 8.1 6.1 3.7
Stanford 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 4.9 7.5 12.2 14.8 16.4 13.1 9.8 7.1 5.3 2.8 2.1 1.2
Pittsburgh 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.6 3.6 5.3 7.9 11.0 12.9 15.2 15.8 15.7 10.2
Florida St. 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 3.1 4.4 7.7 10.2 12.2 14.1 13.7 12.0 11.5 9.2
Georgia Tech 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.9 4.5 7.7 9.2 10.5 13.7 16.0 18.7 14.7
Boston College 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.5 3.5 5.8 8.1 10.6 12.2 16.3 20.5 18.7

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 17 - 1 28 - 3 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.6 11.6 25.7 34.1 22.8
Louisville 11 - 7 22 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.3 4.6 10.6 21.0 25.4 21.9 11.7 3.2
Virginia 13 - 5 25 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.0 5.3 14.0 24.6 30.1 19.8 3.9
North Carolina St. 12 - 6 21 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.3 5.1 12.7 20.3 23.2 21.6 11.2 3.8 0.4
North Carolina 10 - 8 22 - 9 0.2 0.8 3.8 8.3 17.4 22.7 22.2 15.4 7.3 1.9 0.2
Clemson 13 - 5 23 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.4 8.6 16.5 25.1 25.6 16.0 4.9 0.4
SMU 11 - 7 22 - 9 0.1 0.7 2.1 5.5 11.8 18.9 22.0 21.0 12.2 4.8 0.9
Miami (FL) 12 - 6 23 - 8 0.0 0.4 1.7 5.2 13.3 23.0 24.6 18.5 10.1 2.9 0.4
Virginia Tech 9 - 9 20 - 11 0.4 5.1 16.5 29.1 26.8 15.2 5.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
California 8 - 10 19 - 11 0.1 1.4 3.7 10.7 17.9 23.1 21.8 13.0 6.4 1.6 0.3
Wake Forest 7 - 11 16 - 15 0.4 2.4 8.1 15.5 22.3 22.8 15.7 8.6 3.5 0.8 0.1
Syracuse 6 - 12 15 - 16 1.4 7.4 18.1 25.5 24.5 14.4 6.6 1.5 0.5 0.0
Notre Dame 6 - 12 15 - 16 0.5 3.1 10.5 20.5 26.1 21.5 12.1 4.4 1.1 0.3 0.0
Stanford 7 - 11 18 - 13 0.8 3.4 10.1 18.1 24.1 21.2 13.5 6.9 1.7 0.3 0.0
Pittsburgh 5 - 13 12 - 19 3.0 11.8 23.9 26.1 20.0 10.5 3.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
Florida St. 5 - 13 12 - 19 2.0 8.6 18.3 24.9 22.7 14.3 6.3 2.2 0.6 0.1
Georgia Tech 5 - 13 14 - 17 4.3 15.9 25.2 24.5 18.0 8.3 3.2 0.7 0.1
Boston College 5 - 13 12 - 19 6.1 18.9 26.5 23.3 15.4 6.7 2.4 0.5 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 93.9% 84.3 7.8 1.6 0.2 0.0
Louisville 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Virginia 8.4% 2.6 4.3 1.2 0.2 0.0
North Carolina St. 1.8% 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0
North Carolina 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Clemson 6.9% 2.0 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0
SMU 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Miami (FL) 1.0% 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Virginia Tech
California
Wake Forest
Syracuse
Notre Dame
Stanford
Pittsburgh
Florida St.
Georgia Tech
Boston College


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 52.0% 48.0% 1   69.1 27.4 3.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
Louisville 96.1% 10.3% 85.8% 6   0.7 1.4 3.4 9.0 15.3 19.4 17.6 13.6 9.6 4.4 1.8 0.0 4.0 95.6%
Virginia 99.7% 11.1% 88.6% 5   0.6 2.4 7.3 16.1 23.6 24.9 15.0 6.2 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.3 99.7%
North Carolina St. 92.5% 8.2% 84.3% 8   0.1 0.2 0.9 2.8 6.9 13.2 17.8 19.8 15.8 10.5 4.7 0.0 7.5 91.9%
North Carolina 94.6% 4.6% 90.0% 7   0.0 0.1 1.4 5.2 10.4 17.1 19.7 18.6 12.2 7.0 2.9 0.0 5.4 94.4%
Clemson 95.9% 5.5% 90.4% 7   0.1 0.8 2.9 9.2 17.0 21.7 20.0 14.6 8.0 1.8 0.0 4.1 95.7%
SMU 87.3% 4.0% 83.3% 8   0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 4.5 9.7 15.0 19.1 17.7 13.8 5.3 0.1 12.7 86.7%
Miami (FL) 77.0% 3.4% 73.6% 10   0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.1 8.4 13.6 18.2 18.1 12.3 0.1 23.0 76.2%
Virginia Tech 29.1% 0.3% 28.8% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.6 9.8 12.0 0.3 70.9 28.9%
California 14.1% 0.2% 13.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.0 7.6 0.2 85.9 13.9%
Wake Forest 3.7% 0.2% 3.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 0.1 96.3 3.5%
Syracuse 1.9% 0.1% 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.1 98.1 1.9%
Notre Dame 1.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.0 98.8 1.2%
Stanford 11.3% 0.1% 11.2% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 3.2 6.1 0.1 88.7 11.2%
Pittsburgh 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Florida St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.0 0.1 3.0 20.9 48.1 24.1 3.6 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 7.7 0.0 0.3 6.2 31.6 46.8 14.1 0.9 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.1 0.0 1.0 7.0 21.2 34.4 26.4 8.8 1.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 97.4% 2.2 2.6 20.9 39.2 27.1 8.7 1.5 0.1
Elite Eight 77.4% 1.1 22.6 49.9 23.2 3.9 0.4
Final Four 49.0% 0.6 51.0 42.5 6.2 0.2
Final Game 27.8% 0.3 72.2 26.9 1.0
Champion 15.4% 0.2 84.6 15.4

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.5% 81.0% 56.3% 36.0% 22.1% 13.5%
Louisville 96.1% 1.9% 95.4% 71.7% 32.2% 14.1% 6.0% 2.4% 0.9%
Virginia 99.7% 0.1% 99.7% 78.3% 34.7% 13.3% 5.3% 1.8% 0.4%
North Carolina St. 92.5% 4.8% 90.9% 56.6% 18.9% 7.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
North Carolina 94.6% 3.3% 93.2% 58.2% 19.2% 6.4% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%
Clemson 95.9% 2.0% 94.7% 53.9% 16.2% 5.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0%
SMU 87.3% 5.7% 84.5% 45.0% 11.8% 3.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 77.0% 12.9% 70.2% 32.7% 7.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 29.1% 12.7% 22.1% 7.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
California 14.1% 8.1% 9.1% 2.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 3.7% 2.3% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 1.9% 1.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 1.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 11.3% 6.2% 7.3% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%