Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Duke 100.0%   1   10 - 0 0 - 0 27 - 4 15 - 3 +22.6      +11.0 10 +11.6 2 67.7 229 +28.1 3 0.0 1
10 Louisville 99.0%   3   9 - 1 0 - 0 24 - 7 13 - 5 +18.8      +12.3 4 +6.5 29 74.7 52 +20.3 13 0.0 1
23 North Carolina 93.4%   5   9 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 8 11 - 7 +15.2      +7.7 34 +7.5 17 71.8 121 +21.1 12 0.0 1
26 Virginia 89.2%   7   9 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 6 +14.8      +10.0 15 +4.9 51 66.8 255 +16.8 21 0.0 1
29 North Carolina St. 71.7%   9   7 - 4 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 7 +14.1      +9.0 22 +5.1 48 73.0 79 +9.5 64 0.0 1
33 Miami (FL) 67.1%   9   9 - 2 0 - 0 22 - 9 12 - 6 +13.2      +6.0 57 +7.2 23 73.2 76 +14.3 35 0.0 1
35 Clemson 65.6%   10   8 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 7 +12.6      +6.8 50 +5.9 34 62.3 345 +12.5 47 0.0 1
38 SMU 66.2%   9   9 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 10 10 - 8 +12.1      +7.5 38 +4.5 60 73.0 82 +15.5 28 0.0 1
42 Wake Forest 49.8%   10   8 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 8 +11.7      +6.4 56 +5.4 43 73.5 69 +10.5 56 0.0 1
55 Notre Dame 36.5%   9 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 9 +9.7      +5.1 67 +4.6 59 63.7 322 +13.7 37 0.0 1
63 Virginia Tech 26.8%   10 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 12 8 - 10 +8.7      +5.3 64 +3.4 74 71.4 133 +12.9 42 0.0 1
68 Syracuse 10.6%   6 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 14 8 - 10 +8.0      +3.2 96 +4.8 53 69.7 180 +7.0 85 0.0 1
81 California 17.1%   9 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 12 8 - 10 +7.3      +4.3 76 +3.0 82 68.8 204 +14.6 32 0.0 1
92 Stanford 5.9%   8 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 15 6 - 12 +5.7      +3.3 95 +2.5 99 73.7 65 +7.4 80 0.0 1
104 Florida St. 0.6%   5 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 18 5 - 13 +4.1      +2.2 116 +1.9 106 81.8 8 +0.1 169 0.0 1
107 Pittsburgh 0.6%   5 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 19 5 - 13 +3.9      +3.7 86 +0.2 161 61.9 351 +0.1 168 0.0 1
130 Georgia Tech 0.1%   6 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 18 5 - 13 +1.8      -2.7 239 +4.5 61 74.0 64 -0.9 184 0.0 1
148 Boston College 0.0%   5 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 20 4 - 14 +0.7      -2.4 235 +3.1 81 66.8 253 -4.2 233 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Dec 11 173 Saint Joseph's 63 68 Syracuse 71   
Thu, Dec 11 63 Virginia Tech 96 296 Western Carolina 74   
Sat, Dec 13 17 Kansas 77 29 North Carolina St. 76   
Sat, Dec 13 34 LSU 89 38 SMU 77   
Sat, Dec 13 10 Louisville 99 75 Memphis 73   
Sat, Dec 13 114 Hofstra 70 68 Syracuse 69   
Sat, Dec 13 107 Pittsburgh 61 36 Villanova 79   
Sat, Dec 13 104 Florida St. 95 152 Massachusetts 103   
Sat, Dec 13 188 San Jose St. 82 92 Stanford 86   
Sat, Dec 13 35 Clemson 70 168 Mercer 63   
Sat, Dec 13 81 California 79 273 Northwestern St. 70   
Sat, Dec 13 275 Evansville 58 55 Notre Dame 82   
Sat, Dec 13 23 North Carolina 80 262 South Carolina Upstate 62   
Sat, Dec 13 33 Miami (FL) 104 358 Louisiana Monroe 79   
Sun, Dec 14 202 Queens 73 42 Wake Forest 111   
Sun, Dec 14 345 Maryland Eastern Shore 53 63 Virginia Tech 82   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Dec 16 10 Louisville 77 18 Tennessee 78 51%   
Tue, Dec 16 35 Clemson 73 87 South Carolina 63 82%   
Tue, Dec 16 73 Dayton 83 104 Florida St. 76 74%   
Tue, Dec 16 130 Georgia Tech 68 156 Marist 64 67%   
Tue, Dec 16 123 East Tennessee St. 67 23 North Carolina 83 92%   
Tue, Dec 16 187 Florida International 69 33 Miami (FL) 87 94%   
Tue, Dec 16 2 Duke 85 142 Lipscomb 61 98%   
Wed, Dec 17 92 Stanford 77 176 Texas Arlington 67 82%   
Wed, Dec 17 308 Longwood 67 42 Wake Forest 90 97%   
Wed, Dec 17 329 Mercyhurst 58 68 Syracuse 79 96%   
Wed, Dec 17 29 North Carolina St. 92 318 Texas Southern 66 98%   
Wed, Dec 17 356 Binghamton 59 107 Pittsburgh 80 96%   
Fri, Dec 19 81 California 90 359 Morgan St. 65 98%   
Fri, Dec 19 104 Florida St. 93 365 Mississippi Valley 63 99%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 1.8 64.4 17.7 8.2 4.3 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisville 3.5 22.5 22.7 16.2 11.5 8.5 5.9 4.2 3.1 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 5.6 7.7 11.5 12.1 11.6 11.4 10.1 8.5 7.1 5.9 4.6 3.6 2.3 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Virginia 5.1 8.6 14.9 14.4 12.9 11.0 9.4 7.6 6.2 4.8 3.4 2.6 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 6.0 5.9 10.7 11.3 11.0 10.7 10.0 9.0 7.8 6.6 5.4 4.1 3.0 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1
Miami (FL) 5.4 6.5 13.3 13.4 12.8 11.3 10.0 8.4 6.9 5.6 4.1 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Clemson 6.1 4.8 10.1 11.1 11.7 11.2 10.6 9.4 8.1 6.6 5.0 4.0 3.1 1.8 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1
SMU 7.7 2.2 5.4 6.6 7.8 8.7 9.2 9.6 9.3 9.2 8.1 7.0 5.7 4.3 3.0 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.2
Wake Forest 7.6 2.2 5.6 7.5 8.2 9.1 9.3 9.7 9.5 8.8 7.6 6.6 5.4 4.0 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2
Notre Dame 8.8 1.1 2.9 4.4 5.7 6.9 8.1 9.1 9.6 9.9 9.1 8.6 7.5 6.0 4.6 3.0 1.8 1.1 0.4
Virginia Tech 10.8 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.3 4.4 5.5 7.1 8.5 9.4 10.9 10.9 10.7 9.0 6.8 4.6 2.7 1.2
Syracuse 10.7 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.7 3.8 4.8 5.9 7.3 8.6 9.6 10.5 10.3 9.5 8.0 6.4 4.8 3.1 1.7
California 10.7 0.4 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.7 4.7 5.8 7.4 8.6 9.1 9.9 9.9 9.2 8.1 6.8 5.1 3.5 2.0
Stanford 12.7 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.3 3.1 4.2 5.4 6.5 8.0 9.7 10.9 11.7 11.4 10.1 8.2 5.1
Florida St. 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.6 3.4 4.7 6.1 7.8 10.0 11.7 13.2 13.7 12.7 9.5
Pittsburgh 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.1 3.1 4.0 5.8 7.5 9.8 11.3 13.6 14.2 13.4 11.5
Georgia Tech 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.8 4.0 5.7 8.0 10.4 13.5 16.3 17.9 16.9
Boston College 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.6 4.2 6.1 8.7 11.6 15.8 21.2 25.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.8 9.1 15.2 20.5 22.3 17.1 7.3
Louisville 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.4 6.3 10.1 14.6 17.4 17.4 14.7 8.7 3.7 0.9
North Carolina 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 3.6 6.4 9.9 13.2 15.8 15.8 13.6 9.8 5.7 2.7 0.7 0.1
Virginia 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.6 5.0 8.0 11.6 14.9 16.3 15.2 12.3 7.5 3.5 1.0 0.2
North Carolina St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.5 7.6 10.8 14.0 15.6 15.0 12.4 8.9 4.8 2.1 0.6 0.1
Miami (FL) 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.5 9.2 13.2 15.6 16.2 14.8 10.5 6.2 2.9 0.8 0.1
Clemson 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.6 7.4 11.1 14.3 16.2 15.4 12.3 8.4 4.6 1.9 0.5 0.0
SMU 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.8 5.3 8.7 12.3 14.6 15.0 14.0 11.1 7.7 4.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Wake Forest 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.6 5.1 8.0 11.5 14.1 15.2 14.3 11.7 8.1 4.7 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
Notre Dame 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.3 8.0 11.4 14.3 15.1 14.8 12.3 8.1 5.1 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0
Virginia Tech 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.6 5.4 9.9 13.9 16.2 16.3 13.5 9.8 6.0 3.4 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.7 5.6 9.1 12.9 15.1 15.5 13.9 10.4 6.6 4.1 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
California 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.0 6.0 9.4 13.0 14.7 15.0 13.4 10.1 6.6 4.1 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stanford 6 - 12 0.2 1.2 3.8 7.5 11.8 14.5 16.2 14.4 11.9 8.3 5.2 3.0 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 5 - 13 0.6 2.9 6.9 11.6 15.3 16.4 15.3 12.2 8.5 5.2 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Pittsburgh 5 - 13 0.8 3.6 7.7 12.4 16.0 17.2 14.4 11.9 7.5 4.3 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgia Tech 5 - 13 1.2 5.3 11.1 16.3 18.4 17.1 13.0 8.5 5.0 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Boston College 4 - 14 2.6 8.5 14.8 19.6 18.2 14.6 10.2 6.0 3.4 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 64.4% 48.5 12.3 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisville 22.5% 12.9 7.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 7.7% 3.6 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia 8.6% 3.9 3.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Carolina St. 5.9% 2.6 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 6.5% 2.8 2.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Clemson 4.8% 1.9 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
SMU 2.2% 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 2.2% 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame 1.1% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
California 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stanford 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0
Boston College


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 44.8% 55.2% 1   49.0 32.4 11.9 4.3 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Louisville 99.0% 20.2% 78.8% 3   10.4 17.9 21.0 17.8 12.7 8.4 4.8 2.8 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.0 98.7%
North Carolina 93.4% 7.4% 86.1% 5   1.5 4.5 9.5 13.2 15.1 14.6 11.5 9.0 6.9 5.0 2.7 0.1 6.6 92.9%
Virginia 89.2% 7.2% 82.0% 7   0.9 2.1 5.7 9.2 11.8 13.4 13.0 11.4 9.7 8.0 3.9 0.1 10.8 88.4%
North Carolina St. 71.7% 5.4% 66.3% 9   0.2 0.6 2.1 4.0 6.7 8.9 11.4 12.6 10.4 9.1 5.7 0.1 28.3 70.1%
Miami (FL) 67.1% 4.6% 62.5% 9   0.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 5.2 7.1 9.1 10.3 10.9 11.6 7.8 0.2 32.9 65.5%
Clemson 65.6% 3.5% 62.1% 10   0.0 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.1 6.5 8.7 10.9 12.1 12.3 7.4 0.2 34.5 64.3%
SMU 66.2% 2.4% 63.8% 9   0.1 0.2 1.0 2.3 4.5 6.8 9.1 10.9 11.8 11.9 7.4 0.2 33.8 65.4%
Wake Forest 49.8% 2.3% 47.5% 10   0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.1 3.8 5.8 7.9 9.4 10.9 8.2 0.2 50.2 48.6%
Notre Dame 36.5% 0.9% 35.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.1 5.0 7.0 9.6 8.6 0.2 63.5 35.9%
Virginia Tech 26.8% 0.4% 26.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.6 5.2 7.1 6.9 0.2 73.2 26.5%
Syracuse 10.6% 0.4% 10.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.0 3.4 0.1 89.4 10.3%
California 17.1% 0.3% 16.7% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 3.1 4.9 5.5 0.1 82.9 16.8%
Stanford 5.9% 0.1% 5.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.9 2.0 0.1 94.1 5.8%
Florida St. 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 99.4 0.6%
Pittsburgh 0.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4 0.5%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.1% 77.9% 53.5% 32.3% 18.5% 9.9%
Louisville 99.0% 0.6% 98.7% 87.6% 55.5% 27.9% 13.6% 6.2% 2.6%
North Carolina 93.4% 3.2% 91.9% 66.1% 30.2% 11.1% 4.2% 1.4% 0.5%
Virginia 89.2% 4.7% 86.9% 58.2% 23.4% 8.7% 3.3% 1.1% 0.4%
North Carolina St. 71.7% 6.5% 68.8% 42.6% 15.1% 5.7% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
Miami (FL) 67.1% 9.1% 62.9% 36.1% 11.5% 4.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Clemson 65.6% 8.9% 61.1% 33.5% 9.8% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
SMU 66.2% 8.9% 61.5% 32.5% 9.2% 3.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Wake Forest 49.8% 9.6% 45.0% 23.1% 6.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Notre Dame 36.5% 9.8% 31.1% 13.3% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 26.8% 8.0% 22.3% 8.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 10.6% 3.8% 8.6% 3.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
California 17.1% 6.2% 13.4% 4.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 5.9% 2.3% 4.6% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.0 0.0 0.8 7.0 24.1 36.1 24.1 6.9 0.9 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.6 0.0 0.1 2.2 13.0 31.8 33.9 15.8 3.0 0.3 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.1 0.1 1.0 7.0 22.0 33.5 25.2 9.3 1.8 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 98.4% 2.5 1.6 15.0 36.9 32.3 11.9 2.2 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 81.2% 1.2 18.8 47.5 27.6 5.6 0.5 0.0
Final Four 51.5% 0.6 48.5 43.7 7.5 0.3 0.0
Final Game 28.1% 0.3 72.0 27.0 1.0
Champion 13.9% 0.1 86.1 13.9