Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
101 UC San Diego 30.0%   13   6 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 7 15 - 5 +4.8      +4.3 76 +0.5 152 67.4 238 +10.8 61 0.0 1
105 Hawaii 28.6%   5 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 8 15 - 5 +4.5      -1.2 195 +5.7 37 75.9 39 0.0 171 0.0 1
125 UC Irvine 18.6%   3 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 11 13 - 7 +2.7      -4.4 293 +7.1 22 72.9 101 -0.3 181 0.0 1
146 UC Santa Barbara 11.8%   4 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 +0.8      +3.6 86 -2.7 263 64.3 311 +3.1 132 0.0 1
174 UC Davis 6.2%   4 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 9 -1.2      -2.6 238 +1.3 127 68.3 220 +4.0 115 0.0 1
249 Cal Poly 1.4%   2 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 12 -4.9      -3.0 249 -1.8 230 87.6 2 -1.8 201 0.0 1
253 Cal St. Bakersfield 1.2%   3 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 17 8 - 12 -5.1      -3.3 258 -1.8 226 71.2 142 -0.6 185 0.0 1
270 UC Riverside 0.8%   3 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 19 7 - 13 -6.0      -2.6 239 -3.4 287 67.5 235 -5.6 250 0.0 1
280 Cal St. Northridge 0.7%   2 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 19 7 - 13 -6.5      -4.2 283 -2.3 246 81.8 8 -4.7 236 0.0 1
292 Long Beach St. 0.5%   1 - 6 0 - 0 9 - 21 7 - 13 -7.1      -3.3 253 -3.8 302 66.7 260 -10.4 310 0.0 1
297 Cal St. Fullerton 0.4%   2 - 5 0 - 0 9 - 21 6 - 14 -7.6      -3.7 273 -3.8 304 85.2 4 -5.8 258 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sun, Nov 30 201 San Jose St. 63 125 UC Irvine 72   
Sun, Nov 30 253 Cal St. Bakersfield 76 175 Fresno St. 71   
Sun, Nov 30 292 Long Beach St. 76 250 San Diego 72   
Tue, Dec 2 106 Nevada 76 101 UC San Diego 70   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Dec 4 253 Cal St. Bakersfield 78 280 Cal St. Northridge 80 56%   
Thu, Dec 4 249 Cal Poly 90 297 Cal St. Fullerton 91 51%   
Thu, Dec 4 125 UC Irvine 75 270 UC Riverside 63 86%   
Thu, Dec 4 292 Long Beach St. 67 146 UC Santa Barbara 78 85%   
Fri, Dec 5 105 Hawaii 75 174 UC Davis 66 80%   
Sat, Dec 6 249 Cal Poly 83 270 UC Riverside 79 66%   
Sat, Dec 6 253 Cal St. Bakersfield 69 146 UC Santa Barbara 78 80%   
Sat, Dec 6 280 Cal St. Northridge 68 125 UC Irvine 80 87%   
Sat, Dec 6 292 Long Beach St. 69 101 UC San Diego 78 80%   
Sun, Dec 7 297 Cal St. Fullerton 74 105 Hawaii 89 91%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC San Diego 2.3 39.9 25.2 15.9 9.2 5.1 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Hawaii 2.4 36.9 25.0 16.7 10.7 5.5 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0
UC Irvine 3.1 22.5 22.0 20.0 14.7 9.6 5.3 3.0 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1
UC Santa Barbara 3.9 12.8 16.3 18.2 18.0 13.3 8.8 5.5 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.5
UC Davis 5.0 5.9 9.8 13.2 16.2 16.4 13.0 9.6 6.9 4.8 2.9 1.5
Cal Poly 7.0 1.1 2.6 4.8 7.9 11.9 14.3 14.6 13.7 11.8 10.0 7.4
Cal St. Bakersfield 7.1 1.0 2.1 4.5 7.4 10.9 13.7 14.4 14.3 12.6 10.7 8.4
UC Riverside 7.6 0.6 1.7 3.1 5.9 9.1 12.4 13.7 14.7 14.2 13.6 10.9
Cal St. Northridge 7.8 0.4 1.3 2.7 5.0 8.1 11.5 12.9 13.9 14.8 15.3 14.1
Long Beach St. 8.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.3 6.9 9.7 12.5 14.4 15.7 16.7 16.6
Cal St. Fullerton 8.4 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.4 6.0 8.9 11.6 13.9 16.0 17.7 19.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC San Diego 15 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.9 5.1 7.6 10.6 13.4 15.4 15.1 12.9 8.6 4.3 1.2
Hawaii 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.3 5.6 8.4 11.2 13.7 15.0 14.5 12.2 8.1 3.6 1.0
UC Irvine 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 3.9 6.4 8.9 11.2 13.2 14.1 13.1 10.9 7.8 4.1 1.6 0.3
UC Santa Barbara 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 3.1 4.7 7.0 9.6 11.4 13.1 13.4 11.8 9.7 6.8 4.1 1.9 0.7 0.1
UC Davis 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.3 4.0 6.5 8.6 10.6 12.1 12.7 12.2 10.2 8.0 5.5 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Cal Poly 8 - 12 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.9 5.3 7.9 10.7 12.7 13.2 12.6 11.0 8.4 6.0 3.8 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 8 - 12 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.3 5.9 8.6 11.4 13.1 13.6 12.1 10.2 7.7 5.4 3.6 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 7 - 13 0.1 0.8 2.3 4.4 7.5 10.3 12.5 13.7 12.9 11.3 8.8 6.6 4.1 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 7 - 13 0.3 1.1 2.9 5.8 8.9 11.6 12.9 13.0 12.3 10.6 8.0 5.4 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 7 - 13 0.3 1.4 3.5 6.8 10.2 12.5 13.6 13.6 11.9 9.4 6.8 4.6 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 6 - 14 0.4 1.9 4.4 7.9 11.0 13.4 14.1 13.0 11.3 8.6 6.0 3.8 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC San Diego 39.9% 28.5 9.3 1.8 0.2 0.0
Hawaii 36.9% 26.3 8.7 1.7 0.2 0.0
UC Irvine 22.5% 14.5 6.4 1.5 0.2 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 12.8% 7.5 4.0 1.2 0.1
UC Davis 5.9% 3.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 1.0% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC San Diego 30.0% 29.9% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.8 13.5 9.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 70.0 0.2%
Hawaii 28.6% 28.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.9 9.2 10.6 5.3 1.1 0.1 71.4 0.0%
UC Irvine 18.6% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.6 7.0 4.7 1.4 0.2 81.4 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.5 3.4 1.0 0.1 88.2 0.0%
UC Davis 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.8 0.8 0.1 93.8 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 98.6 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 98.8 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 99.2 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 99.3 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.5 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC San Diego 30.0% 0.1% 29.9% 4.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 28.6% 0.0% 28.6% 4.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 18.6% 0.1% 18.6% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 11.8% 0.1% 11.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 6.2% 0.0% 6.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.4% 0.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 1.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 99.5 0.1
2nd Round 12.5% 0.1 87.5 12.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4 0.0
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0