Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
97 Hawaii 38.6%   13   13 - 4 7 - 2 +5.3      -1.3 198 +6.6 34 71.9 95 +3.5 112 +4.7 2
112 UC San Diego 19.1%   13 - 5 5 - 4 +3.4      +1.5 129 +1.9 113 67.9 212 +4.4 98 -1.6 4
120 UC Irvine 24.0%   12 - 7 7 - 2 +2.7      -3.2 263 +6.0 43 70.7 133 +2.1 133 +6.2 1
146 UC Santa Barbara 10.6%   11 - 7 6 - 3 +0.8      +4.1 79 -3.4 281 63.1 322 -0.4 169 -0.2 3
181 UC Davis 3.9%   10 - 8 5 - 4 -1.6      -0.7 184 -0.9 206 71.1 118 +0.3 156 -1.6 5
216 Cal St. Fullerton 1.6%   8 - 12 5 - 5 -3.3      -2.3 234 -1.0 208 80.3 8 -2.8 213 -2.2 6
217 Cal St. Northridge 1.4%   9 - 10 4 - 5 -3.3      -1.6 212 -1.8 232 80.6 6 -1.6 193 -2.6 7
251 Long Beach St. 0.6%   6 - 13 4 - 5 -5.0      -2.5 238 -2.5 250 68.1 203 -5.8 252 -4.1 8
289 Cal Poly 0.1%   5 - 14 3 - 6 -7.4      -3.4 267 -4.0 293 84.6 1 -6.2 266 -6.0 9
292 UC Riverside 0.0%   5 - 14 2 - 7 -7.5      -4.4 291 -3.1 273 68.0 209 -6.4 270 -8.1 11
301 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1%   6 - 13 2 - 7 -8.2      -5.0 306 -3.3 279 73.1 69 -6.3 269 -7.6 10


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Jan 29 97 Hawaii 67 120 UC Irvine 68 52%   
Thu, Jan 29 112 UC San Diego 77 146 UC Santa Barbara 71 71%   
Thu, Jan 29 217 Cal St. Northridge 82 181 UC Davis 81 55%   
Thu, Jan 29 301 Cal St. Bakersfield 85 289 Cal Poly 83 58%   
Thu, Jan 29 251 Long Beach St. 72 292 UC Riverside 73 52%   
Sat, Jan 31 216 Cal St. Fullerton 76 146 UC Santa Barbara 83 75%   
Sat, Jan 31 217 Cal St. Northridge 77 112 UC San Diego 81 64%   
Sat, Jan 31 289 Cal Poly 79 292 UC Riverside 82 61%   
Sat, Jan 31 97 Hawaii 75 251 Long Beach St. 68 76%   
Sat, Jan 31 301 Cal St. Bakersfield 75 181 UC Davis 79 64%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Hawaii 1.5 64.0 26.0 7.1 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
UC San Diego 3.3 7.7 20.8 34.2 21.3 9.9 3.8 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
UC Irvine 1.9 43.8 35.4 13.1 5.2 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 3.7 6.7 15.5 26.2 25.6 14.7 7.2 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.1
UC Davis 5.0 1.3 4.5 12.6 21.0 23.6 17.3 11.0 5.7 2.2 0.6 0.1
Cal St. Fullerton 5.9 0.2 1.4 5.5 12.9 20.0 24.2 19.8 10.6 3.9 1.2 0.2
Cal St. Northridge 6.2 0.2 1.5 4.9 11.3 17.9 21.0 20.1 13.6 6.4 2.6 0.7
Long Beach St. 7.3 0.1 0.3 1.3 4.6 10.2 15.2 20.7 23.6 14.8 6.9 2.2
Cal Poly 8.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 4.9 10.2 18.7 27.2 22.1 14.0
UC Riverside 9.4 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.9 6.1 12.4 22.1 29.3 25.7
Cal St. Bakersfield 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.8 5.9 11.8 19.5 26.5 32.4

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Hawaii 15 - 5 21 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.1 7.8 16.5 23.7 24.7 17.4 5.5
UC San Diego 13 - 7 21 - 9 0.1 0.5 2.5 6.7 14.4 22.4 24.1 18.8 8.7 1.7
UC Irvine 15 - 5 20 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 7.3 13.3 20.6 22.9 19.3 10.1 2.8
UC Santa Barbara 12 - 8 17 - 12 0.0 0.3 1.5 5.5 11.4 17.9 22.6 19.6 13.2 5.9 1.8 0.3
UC Davis 11 - 9 16 - 13 0.1 1.0 3.5 8.6 14.9 21.0 21.0 16.1 9.0 3.7 0.9 0.2
Cal St. Fullerton 10 - 10 13 - 17 0.3 2.4 7.6 15.4 22.2 23.1 16.8 8.5 3.0 0.7 0.1
Cal St. Northridge 9 - 11 14 - 16 0.1 1.2 4.4 10.6 17.5 20.5 19.8 14.4 7.7 3.0 0.7 0.1
Long Beach St. 8 - 12 10 - 20 0.9 4.6 11.6 19.2 22.1 19.1 12.9 6.6 2.3 0.6 0.1
Cal Poly 7 - 13 9 - 21 1.9 8.0 18.3 23.6 22.3 14.7 7.7 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
UC Riverside 6 - 14 9 - 21 1.3 6.4 15.2 22.3 23.3 17.3 9.0 3.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 6 - 14 10 - 20 2.1 8.5 16.6 22.9 21.6 15.2 8.6 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Hawaii 64.0% 45.8 15.5 2.5 0.2 0.0
UC San Diego 7.7% 2.8 3.4 1.4 0.1 0.0
UC Irvine 43.8% 27.4 13.8 2.4 0.2 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 6.7% 2.7 2.8 1.1 0.1 0.0
UC Davis 1.3% 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly
UC Riverside
Cal St. Bakersfield


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Hawaii 38.6% 38.6% 0.0% 13   0.0 1.3 13.6 18.5 5.0 0.1 61.4 0.0%
UC San Diego 19.1% 19.1% 0.0% 0.4 6.8 9.4 2.4 0.1 0.0 80.9 0.0%
UC Irvine 24.0% 24.0% 0.0% 0.2 4.6 12.0 6.4 0.8 76.0 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 4.0 4.5 1.2 0.1 89.4 0.0%
UC Davis 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.0 96.1 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.4 98.4 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 98.6 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 99.8
2nd Round 8.7% 0.1 91.3 8.7
Sweet Sixteen 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Hawaii 38.6% 0.0% 38.6% 4.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 19.1% 0.0% 19.1% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 24.0% 0.0% 24.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 10.6% 0.0% 10.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 3.9% 0.0% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 1.6% 0.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 1.4% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%