Horizon
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
135 Oakland 30.9%   14   12 - 10 9 - 3 +1.6      +5.0 71 -3.4 280 73.9 56 +2.6 124 +3.0 2
151 Wright St. 24.0%   11 - 8 8 - 2 +0.5      +1.9 121 -1.4 223 66.8 236 -0.5 173 +3.3 1
179 Northern Kentucky 12.9%   11 - 8 6 - 5 -1.4      -0.1 162 -1.4 220 72.9 75 -1.9 199 -3.3 5
203 Robert Morris 7.8%   12 - 9 6 - 6 -2.7      0.0 160 -2.8 259 63.9 309 -1.8 196 -4.9 7
221 Youngstown St. 4.3%   7 - 12 3 - 8 -3.6      -2.2 229 -1.4 219 68.9 176 -7.2 280 -10.1 10
224 Purdue Fort Wayne 7.8%   10 - 9 7 - 4 -3.7      -2.0 223 -1.7 230 70.8 128 -0.4 168 -0.7 4
244 Green Bay 5.5%   10 - 10 7 - 4 -4.6      +1.0 138 -5.6 333 61.4 350 -0.9 180 -0.7 3
247 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 4.7%   8 - 13 5 - 6 -4.7      -1.5 206 -3.2 278 70.4 138 -4.0 226 -4.4 6
291 Detroit Mercy 1.5%   6 - 12 5 - 6 -7.5      -2.4 236 -5.0 319 71.5 109 -7.3 281 -6.3 8
321 Cleveland St. 0.4%   4 - 14 3 - 7 -9.6      -1.3 202 -8.2 360 71.7 99 -9.9 323 -9.9 9
340 IU Indianapolis 0.1%   4 - 17 2 - 10 -11.6      -3.9 278 -7.7 357 82.1 5 -11.9 336 -12.7 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Jan 28 135 Oakland 74 224 Purdue Fort Wayne 65   
Wed, Jan 28 340 IU Indianapolis 58 203 Robert Morris 74   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 30 247 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 75 151 Wright St. 77 58%   
Fri, Jan 30 291 Detroit Mercy 78 179 Northern Kentucky 81 62%   
Fri, Jan 30 321 Cleveland St. 74 244 Green Bay 82 78%   
Fri, Jan 30 340 IU Indianapolis 77 221 Youngstown St. 88 85%   
Sat, Jan 31 224 Purdue Fort Wayne 75 203 Robert Morris 73 58%   
Sun, Feb 1 179 Northern Kentucky 81 135 Oakland 87 72%   
Sun, Feb 1 244 Green Bay 72 151 Wright St. 74 58%   
Sun, Feb 1 321 Cleveland St. 77 247 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 85 77%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Oakland 1.4 66.5 28.7 3.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wright St. 1.8 47.4 37.8 9.2 3.3 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Northern Kentucky 4.1 2.9 9.5 28.5 23.6 16.4 10.3 5.9 2.3 0.6 0.1
Robert Morris 5.3 0.7 2.9 10.7 17.5 21.3 22.2 15.5 6.6 2.2 0.5
Youngstown St. 7.9 0.0 0.7 2.5 4.9 8.9 15.5 29.3 26.4 10.7 1.2
Purdue Fort Wayne 3.9 3.9 13.1 29.6 22.3 14.8 9.7 5.2 1.2 0.2 0.0
Green Bay 4.2 2.9 9.3 26.4 23.1 17.4 11.0 6.6 2.4 0.8 0.1
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 6.0 0.2 1.3 6.9 12.6 16.2 21.2 22.2 12.0 5.9 1.4 0.1
Detroit Mercy 7.7 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.1 5.7 9.9 15.9 28.8 27.5 7.4 0.3
Cleveland St. 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.7 10.0 21.7 48.2 13.0
IU Indianapolis 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 5.5 23.9 69.3

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Oakland 15 - 5 18 - 12 0.0 0.4 2.3 7.8 18.0 29.0 28.8 13.8
Wright St. 15 - 5 18 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 6.7 14.5 21.3 24.1 18.8 9.1 2.5
Northern Kentucky 11 - 9 16 - 12 0.1 0.5 2.6 7.8 15.4 23.1 24.0 17.9 7.3 1.4
Robert Morris 10 - 10 16 - 13 0.2 2.3 8.7 18.3 25.7 24.0 14.4 5.4 1.0
Youngstown St. 8 - 12 12 - 16 0.1 1.2 6.0 13.4 22.4 24.8 19.1 9.7 3.0 0.4
Purdue Fort Wayne 12 - 8 15 - 13 0.1 1.7 6.0 14.1 22.2 23.7 18.8 9.8 3.2 0.5
Green Bay 11 - 9 14 - 15 0.3 2.6 8.3 16.6 23.7 23.5 16.1 6.7 1.9 0.3
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 10 - 10 13 - 17 0.2 1.7 6.0 14.0 22.9 24.7 18.6 9.0 2.5 0.4
Detroit Mercy 8 - 12 9 - 18 4.0 13.0 22.4 25.6 19.4 10.0 4.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
Cleveland St. 6 - 14 7 - 21 4.8 15.6 23.2 23.9 17.0 9.5 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
IU Indianapolis 4 - 16 6 - 23 10.3 26.7 30.2 20.9 8.5 2.9 0.5 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Oakland 66.5% 46.3 18.1 1.9 0.2 0.0
Wright St. 47.4% 28.9 16.5 1.8 0.2 0.0
Northern Kentucky 2.9% 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
Robert Morris 0.7% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Youngstown St.
Purdue Fort Wayne 3.9% 1.1 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Green Bay 2.9% 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Detroit Mercy 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Cleveland St.
IU Indianapolis


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Oakland 30.9% 30.9% 0.0% 14   0.0 2.7 10.8 13.3 4.1 0.1 69.1 0.0%
Wright St. 24.0% 24.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 3.7 10.4 8.5 0.8 76.0 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 4.2 6.2 1.4 87.1 0.0%
Robert Morris 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.1 1.4 92.2 0.0%
Youngstown St. 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.7 95.7 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.5 1.1 92.2 0.0%
Green Bay 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 1.5 94.5 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.0 95.3 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.4 98.5 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.1% 1.0 2.9 97.1
2nd Round 2.7% 0.0 97.3 2.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Oakland 30.9% 0.0% 30.9% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wright St. 24.0% 0.1% 24.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 12.9% 0.1% 12.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 7.8% 0.3% 7.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 4.3% 1.8% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 7.8% 0.2% 7.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 5.5% 0.5% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 4.7% 1.7% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%