Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +0.5 #153
Expected Predictive Rating -0.5 #173
Pace 66.7 #237
Improvement -0.2 #193

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #118 C B- C C+ C
Defense #223 C C C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #70 1.14 #193 +2.0 #107
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #136 0.82 #92 +1.5 #98
Three Pointers 35% #312 1.05 #135 -2.6 #273
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #151 +0.9 #150
Freethrows 0.31 #162 74% #120 0.23 #136
Second Chance 30.7% #176 1.18 #39 0.36 #86
Turnovers 16.3% #169
Total Offense +1.9 #118

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #31 1.15 #174 -3.5 #296
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #103 0.87 #329 -2.0 #326
Three Pointers 33% #353 0.95 #94 +5.2 #14
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #188 -0.3 #189
Freethrows 0.30 #183 70% #72 0.21 #152
Second Chance 31.5% #228 1.02 #143 0.32 #193
Turnovers 17.0% #142
Total Defense -1.4 #223

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #189 0.4% #203
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.7% #150 0.1% #186
Possession Length 18.5 #294 17.0 #117
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #294 0.16 #145
Improvement +4.1 #14 -4.3 #354

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.2% 25.8% 22.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 97.8% 99.4% 95.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 55.0% 65.8% 39.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round24.2% 25.8% 22.0%
Second Round0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Away) - 58.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 414 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 66 @California L 67 - 77 15% -6  0 - 1 +1 +1 D- B A+ +1 C+ A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 165 Toledo L 71 - 81 65% -4  0 - 2 -13 -3 B- B- F -11 D F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 255 Radford W 92 - 59 71% +13  1 - 2 +28 +11 B+ C+ C +15 B+ A+ A-
 Sun, Nov 16 142 Kent St. L 72 - 76 OT 48% +2  1 - 3 -3 -5 D C C +3 A D A
 Tue, Nov 25 330 @Stetson W 79 - 62 78% +15  2 - 3 +10 +9 B+ B F +2 C+ F B-
 Fri, Nov 28 58 @Butler L 69 - 94 13% -5  2 - 4 -12 -4 C C- C- -7 D- D C-
 Wed, Dec 3 222 @Youngstown St. L 68 - 69 54% -0  2 - 5 0 - 1 -2 -4 C C- C +2 B- F A+
 Sun, Dec 7 243 Green Bay W 86 - 58 78% +12  3 - 5 1 - 1 +20 +9 D+ A+ B- +12 A+ D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 163 @Marshall L 74 - 76 41% +1  3 - 6 +1 +10 B D A+ -9 C D- C-
 Tue, Dec 16 91 Miami (OH) L 76 - 83 40% -8  3 - 7 -4 -1 D C- B+ -3 F A+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 241 Eastern Michigan W 70 - 64 78% +1  4 - 7 -1 -3 C F+ D- +1 B- B+ C
 Mon, Dec 29 135 Oakland W 88 - 73 58% +14  5 - 7 2 - 1 +13 +9 A+ C D- +5 A- A- A
 Thu, Jan 1 244 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 70 78% +7  6 - 7 3 - 1 -2 +4 F+ B+ B+ -6 C B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 340 @IU Indianapolis W 81 - 77 80% +5  7 - 7 4 - 1 -4 +6 C- A+ F -10 D C C+
 Fri, Jan 9 289 @Detroit Mercy W 84 - 82 68% +6  8 - 7 5 - 1 -2 +7 B- D F+ -10 C F C-
 Sun, Jan 11 135 @Oakland W 94 - 84 35% +17  9 - 7 6 - 1 +14 +15 A+ D F -1 C A- F
 Thu, Jan 15 222 Youngstown St. W 93 - 83 75% +5  10 - 7 7 - 1 +3 +24 C A+ A+ -20 C- F F+
 Wed, Jan 21 320 Cleveland St. L 79 - 85 88% +0  10 - 8 7 - 2 -19 -2 F C+ A- -16 D- C+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 180 Northern Kentucky W 88 - 80 68% +9  11 - 8 8 - 2 +4 +12 C+ C A+ -8 F C+ B
 Fri, Jan 30 244 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77 - 75 58%
 Sun, Feb 1 243 @Green Bay W 74 - 72 58%
 Wed, Feb 4 208 @Robert Morris W 74 - 73 51%
 Sat, Feb 7 218 Purdue Fort Wayne W 80 - 73 74%
 Thu, Feb 12 289 Detroit Mercy W 82 - 71 84%
 Sun, Feb 15 320 @Cleveland St. W 83 - 76 74%
 Thu, Feb 19 340 IU Indianapolis W 91 - 76 92%
 Sun, Feb 22 208 Robert Morris W 77 - 71 73%
 Wed, Feb 25 218 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 77 - 76 54%
 Sat, Feb 28 180 @Northern Kentucky L 77 - 78 46%
Totals 18 - 11 15 - 5 +1 +2 C B- C -1 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 7.7 16.5 17.6 9.7 2.5 55.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 7.3 12.7 7.3 1.6 29.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.0 4.9 1.4 0.1 9.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 6.4 13.9 21.8 23.9 19.1 9.7 2.5 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 2.5    2.5
17-3 100.0% 9.7    8.9 0.8
16-4 91.8% 17.6    13.0 4.5 0.0
15-5 69.1% 16.5    8.5 7.4 0.6
14-6 35.4% 7.7    2.2 3.8 1.6 0.1
13-7 7.8% 1.1    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 55.0% 55.0 35.2 16.8 2.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 2.5% 35.4% 35.4% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.6
17-3 9.7% 33.9% 33.9% 13.5 0.2 1.4 1.6 0.2 6.4
16-4 19.1% 29.1% 29.1% 13.9 0.1 1.3 3.3 0.9 0.0 13.6
15-5 23.9% 25.3% 25.3% 14.3 0.0 0.6 3.3 2.2 0.1 17.8
14-6 21.8% 22.4% 22.4% 14.6 0.1 1.9 2.6 0.2 16.9
13-7 13.9% 17.3% 17.3% 14.8 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.3 11.5
12-8 6.4% 14.2% 14.2% 15.1 0.1 0.7 0.2 5.5
11-9 2.3% 11.3% 11.3% 15.4 0.2 0.1 2.0
10-10 0.5% 5.9% 5.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.2% 24.2% 0.0% 14.2 75.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 12.6 0.6 45.4 50.0 4.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%