Robert Morris
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.9 #208
Expected Predictive Rating -1.9 #200
Pace 65.2 #281
Improvement -1.6 #265

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #164 C B D+ D+ C-
Defense #266 C- C C- F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #243 1.07 #284 -2.9 #285
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #147 0.76 #161 +0.7 #142
Three Pointers 42% #169 1.10 #71 +2.0 #116
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #181 -0.2 #181
Freethrows 0.27 #285 69% #276 0.19 #300
Second Chance 35.7% #48 1.08 #127 0.39 #59
Turnovers 17.8% #267
Total Offense +0.0 #164

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #53 1.17 #198 -3.3 #288
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #201 0.80 #258 -0.1 #188
Three Pointers 37% #291 1.07 #258 +1.2 #138
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #259 -2.2 #258
Freethrows 0.40 #362 75% #303 0.30 #362
Second Chance 30.6% #180 1.02 #141 0.31 #164
Turnovers 15.6% #222
Total Defense -2.9 #266

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #235 1.0% #260
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.3% #172 3.3% #244
Possession Length 18.4 #278 17.3 #180
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #348 0.16 #154
Improvement +0.4 #158 -2.0 #303

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.1% 7.3% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 86.8% 89.8% 68.1%
.500 or above in Conference 65.2% 69.6% 37.8%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 1.6%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round7.0% 7.2% 5.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: IU Indianapolis (Home) - 86.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 66 - 8
Quad 412 - 617 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 23 @Iowa L 69 - 101 3% -21  0 - 1 -13 +8 A+ A+ F -21 F F C+
 Thu, Nov 6 148 @Drake W 81 - 79 OT 26% +2  1 - 1 +6 +6 B+ B F -0 A B- F+
 Thu, Nov 20 150 @St. Bonaventure L 61 - 75 27% -4  1 - 2 -10 -11 F C F +0 C- B+ A
 Sun, Nov 23 185 @Monmouth L 70 - 71 OT 35% +1  1 - 3 +0 +1 D B+ C+ -1 B D D+
 Wed, Nov 26 136 Illinois-Chicago W 88 - 74 45% +13  2 - 3 +12 +18 B A+ C -6 C+ C- C
 Fri, Nov 28 282 Southern Utah W 61 - 54 75% +11  3 - 3 -3 -11 F C+ D+ +8 A C+ A-
 Sun, Nov 30 330 Stetson W 80 - 62 84% +12  4 - 3 +5 +12 A- A+ A- -5 B C- F
 Thu, Dec 4 243 @Green Bay W 80 - 78 45% -1  5 - 3 1 - 0 +0 +6 C+ C+ D- -6 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 244 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 72 - 74 45% +1  5 - 4 1 - 1 -4 -4 D- D C+ -0 D+ A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 165 Toledo W 75 - 70 52% -6  6 - 4 +2 -1 D- D A+ +3 A+ B+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 222 Youngstown St. W 80 - 77 OT 64% -3  7 - 4 2 - 1 -4 +8 C B A- -11 F D- A+
 Sat, Dec 20 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 79 - 70 77% +2  8 - 4 -2 +9 B+ F C -10 D F F
 Mon, Dec 29 180 Northern Kentucky L 77 - 79 56% +1  8 - 5 2 - 2 -6 +1 C- A+ D+ -7 D- A C
 Fri, Jan 2 289 @Detroit Mercy W 85 - 77 56% +0  9 - 5 3 - 2 +4 +11 D A+ F -7 F D+ A
 Sun, Jan 4 135 @Oakland L 73 - 96 24% -14  9 - 6 3 - 3 -19 -1 D+ C- C -19 C F+ F
 Sun, Jan 11 218 Purdue Fort Wayne L 74 - 79 63% -5  9 - 7 3 - 4 -11 +4 C+ F+ B -16 F F A-
 Thu, Jan 15 340 @IU Indianapolis L 93 - 96 OT 70% +2  9 - 8 3 - 5 -11 +4 B- C F -15 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 180 @Northern Kentucky W 92 - 89 OT 33% +3  10 - 8 4 - 5 +5 +4 C- A- C +0 C A- C
 Thu, Jan 22 244 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 88 - 76 68% +7  11 - 8 5 - 5 +4 +10 A+ A+ F -6 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 243 Green Bay L 67 - 71 68% -5  11 - 9 5 - 6 -12 -4 D+ C- F+ -8 C F C
 Wed, Jan 28 340 IU Indianapolis W 88 - 76 86%
 Sat, Jan 31 218 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 74 - 77 40%
 Wed, Feb 4 153 Wright St. L 73 - 74 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 222 @Youngstown St. L 72 - 74 41%
 Thu, Feb 12 320 @Cleveland St. W 80 - 76 63%
 Sun, Feb 15 135 Oakland L 80 - 81 46%
 Sun, Feb 22 153 @Wright St. L 71 - 77 27%
 Wed, Feb 25 289 Detroit Mercy W 80 - 72 76%
 Sat, Feb 28 320 Cleveland St. W 83 - 73 81%
Totals 16 - 13 10 - 10 -3 +0 C B D+ -3 C- C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.3 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.4 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 4.6 2.1 0.1 8.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 7.3 5.9 0.4 15.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 8.1 9.6 1.7 0.0 20.3 5th
6th 0.5 7.2 12.0 3.6 0.1 23.4 6th
7th 0.3 4.2 9.6 3.4 0.2 17.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.9 1.9 0.1 8.4 8th
9th 0.3 1.6 1.1 0.1 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.8 3.6 10.7 19.7 25.2 22.0 12.8 4.4 0.8 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 40.9% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1
13-7 5.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.8% 20.8% 20.8% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6
13-7 4.4% 16.6% 16.6% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.7
12-8 12.8% 11.8% 11.8% 14.5 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.0 11.3
11-9 22.0% 9.8% 9.8% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.2 19.8
10-10 25.2% 5.5% 5.5% 15.1 0.2 0.9 0.3 23.8
9-11 19.7% 4.2% 4.2% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 18.9
8-12 10.7% 2.4% 2.4% 15.8 0.0 0.2 10.4
7-13 3.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 3.6
6-14 0.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 14.8 92.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.1 21.9 43.8 34.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%