Green Bay
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.6 #243
Expected Predictive Rating -0.8 #181
Pace 61.2 #352
Improvement +0.9 #140

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #138 C+ D C+ B C+
Defense #332 D+ C- D- C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #119 1.18 #153 +1.8 #112
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #234 0.82 #87 -0.5 #201
Three Pointers 41% #176 1.04 #148 +0.6 #151
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #123 +2.0 #123
Freethrows 0.35 #46 73% #146 0.26 #48
Second Chance 23.6% #342 1.06 #154 0.25 #319
Turnovers 15.6% #125
Total Offense +0.9 #138

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #280 1.27 #316 -0.1 #179
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #208 0.76 #183 +0.4 #155
Three Pointers 46% #60 1.05 #241 -3.1 #306
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #269 -2.8 #270
Freethrows 0.32 #249 71% #118 0.23 #228
Second Chance 28.6% #104 1.21 #340 0.34 #247
Turnovers 13.0% #345
Total Defense -5.5 #332

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #112 -0.2% #148
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.8% #131 5.5% #283
Possession Length 19.9 #359 17.1 #138
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #344 0.17 #193
Improvement +2.5 #62 -1.6 #280

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.6% 6.0% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 51.4% 58.2% 28.1%
.500 or above in Conference 88.8% 93.5% 72.6%
Conference Champion 3.5% 4.3% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round5.4% 5.8% 3.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Home) - 77.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 35 - 75 - 11
Quad 410 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 17 @Kansas L 51 - 94 2% -23  0 - 1 -22 -6 C- F B -19 F A F
 Fri, Nov 7 184 @Buffalo L 76 - 83 29% -3  0 - 2 -6 +7 A+ F C -14 D D F
 Thu, Nov 13 127 @St. Thomas L 61 - 80 18% -19  0 - 3 -14 -10 D- F+ D -4 D+ A D
 Sat, Nov 15 76 @Minnesota L 65 - 72 OT 9% -1  0 - 4 +4 -3 C- D+ D+ +7 B- A F
 Fri, Nov 21 70 Yale L 67 - 73 12% -6  0 - 5 +2 +3 F A+ B -2 C B- C
 Sat, Nov 22 170 Massachusetts W 79 - 75 36% +4  1 - 5 +3 +9 B- D A- -6 A- F D-
 Mon, Nov 24 227 Iona W 80 - 75 47% -0  2 - 5 +1 +10 D- A+ A+ -9 C F+ F
 Thu, Dec 4 208 Robert Morris L 78 - 80 55% +1  2 - 6 0 - 1 -8 +4 A- F C- -12 D C D+
 Sun, Dec 7 153 @Wright St. L 58 - 86 22% -12  2 - 7 0 - 2 -24 -13 F+ C- F -13 C F F
 Thu, Dec 11 340 @IU Indianapolis W 85 - 75 64% +1  3 - 7 1 - 2 +2 +3 C F C- -1 A D- D-
 Wed, Dec 17 146 UC Santa Barbara W 67 - 64 40% +8  4 - 7 +1 +5 A F A- -4 D D+ B-
 Tue, Dec 23 206 @Campbell L 79 - 102 32% -9  4 - 8 -23 +9 A D+ D -33 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 218 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 72 - 54 34% +10  5 - 8 2 - 2 +18 +8 C+ C B- +12 B C+ B
 Mon, Jan 5 244 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79 - 76 62% +8  6 - 8 3 - 2 -5 +10 A+ F B+ -14 F A C+
 Fri, Jan 9 340 IU Indianapolis W 75 - 59 82% +9  7 - 8 4 - 2 +2 -9 D- F D- +10 A+ B+ D-
 Sun, Jan 11 180 Northern Kentucky W 80 - 78 49% +13  8 - 8 5 - 2 -2 +17 A+ D+ A -19 D A- F
 Thu, Jan 15 320 @Cleveland St. W 88 - 73 57% +2  9 - 8 6 - 2 +8 +21 A+ B+ C+ -10 D- B- F
 Sun, Jan 18 135 Oakland L 63 - 88 39% -11  9 - 9 6 - 3 -27 -9 D+ F D -20 F+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 22 222 @Youngstown St. L 81 - 88 35% -8  9 - 10 6 - 4 -8 +13 A- D- C -21 F F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 24 208 @Robert Morris W 71 - 67 32% +5  10 - 10 7 - 4 +4 +6 C A C -1 C B C-
 Fri, Jan 30 320 Cleveland St. W 81 - 73 77%
 Sun, Feb 1 153 Wright St. L 72 - 74 42%
 Wed, Feb 4 180 @Northern Kentucky L 72 - 78 28%
 Sat, Feb 7 289 Detroit Mercy W 78 - 72 71%
 Thu, Feb 12 218 Purdue Fort Wayne W 75 - 73 56%
 Sun, Feb 15 244 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 73 - 76 39%
 Fri, Feb 20 135 @Oakland L 75 - 84 20%
 Sun, Feb 22 289 @Detroit Mercy L 74 - 75 49%
 Sat, Feb 28 222 Youngstown St. W 73 - 71 58%
Totals 14 - 15 11 - 9 -5 +1 C+ D C+ -6 D+ C- D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.2 0.2 3.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.3 3.5 0.6 0.0 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 9.6 8.8 1.7 0.0 22.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 9.8 10.3 1.9 0.0 23.9 4th
5th 0.6 7.0 9.6 2.1 0.0 19.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.8 6.6 2.2 0.1 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.0 2.0 0.2 6.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.1 2.4 8th
9th 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.4 2.4 8.4 17.4 24.0 23.0 15.6 6.7 1.8 0.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 96.1% 0.2    0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 66.8% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.1
14-6 23.3% 1.6    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1
13-7 3.1% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.3% 23.5% 23.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 1.8% 13.9% 13.9% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.6
14-6 6.7% 10.5% 10.5% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 6.0
13-7 15.6% 9.3% 9.3% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 14.1
12-8 23.0% 6.2% 6.2% 15.3 0.0 1.0 0.4 21.6
11-9 24.0% 4.3% 4.3% 15.5 0.5 0.5 23.0
10-10 17.4% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.1 0.4 16.9
9-11 8.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 8.3
8-12 2.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.4
7-13 0.4% 0.4
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 15.1 94.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%