Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.4 #289
Expected Predictive Rating -7.2 #279
Pace 71.2 #117
Improvement +2.6 #70

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #236 D C- C+ C- F
Defense #317 C- D+ D- D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #348 1.10 #252 -5.8 #345
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% #3 0.77 #152 +6.2 #5
Three Pointers 34% #325 0.97 #252 -4.6 #323
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #304 -4.2 #304
Freethrows 0.27 #269 76% #57 0.21 #212
Second Chance 32.1% #141 0.94 #316 0.30 #208
Turnovers 15.3% #116
Total Offense -2.5 #236

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #135 1.20 #240 -1.9 #244
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #333 0.70 #86 +2.5 #18
Three Pointers 45% #75 1.06 #248 -2.9 #299
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #260 -2.3 #263
Freethrows 0.35 #318 72% #171 0.25 #312
Second Chance 31.5% #226 1.13 #291 0.36 #275
Turnovers 13.5% #333
Total Defense -4.9 #317

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -5.2% #362 1.7% #324
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.2% #231 2.7% #231
Possession Length 17.3 #172 16.5 #52
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #156 0.20 #288
Improvement +2.0 #81 +0.6 #156

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.7% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 0.6% 1.3% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 16.2% 28.8% 8.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 0.4% 3.0%
First Four0.9% 1.2% 0.8%
First Round0.9% 1.1% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Kentucky (Home) - 38.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 91 - 13
Quad 48 - 610 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 136 @Illinois-Chicago L 71 - 91 14% -6  0 - 1 -16 -7 F F C+ -6 D+ F+ B
 Fri, Nov 7 81 @Notre Dame L 70 - 102 6% -17  0 - 2 -22 -3 C+ D+ D- -16 D F F
 Sat, Nov 15 165 @Toledo L 83 - 90 17% -4  0 - 3 -4 +2 D+ C- B -6 D- C B+
 Tue, Nov 18 241 Eastern Michigan L 62 - 72 50% +1  0 - 4 -17 -12 F C- C- -5 D C- B
 Fri, Nov 21 6 @Michigan St. L 56 - 84 1% -16  0 - 5 -4 -1 C+ C F -4 B+ F C
 Sun, Nov 23 92 @DePaul L 75 - 95 7% -6  0 - 6 -11 +12 B+ C C+ -24 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 349 @Niagara W 70 - 66 57% +6  1 - 6 -5 -2 F C C+ -3 D+ C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 340 IU Indianapolis W 92 - 78 75% +10  2 - 6 1 - 0 -0 +9 F A+ A+ -9 C C- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 320 @Cleveland St. W 71 - 59 47% +4  3 - 6 2 - 0 +5 -1 D- F A +8 A+ D- C+
 Sun, Dec 14 218 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 81 25% -2  3 - 7 2 - 1 -4 +6 D- C- A+ -10 C- C F
 Mon, Dec 29 222 @Youngstown St. W 73 - 68 26% +7  4 - 7 3 - 1 +4 +1 C+ F D+ +4 A- A- F
 Fri, Jan 2 208 Robert Morris L 77 - 85 44% -0  4 - 8 3 - 2 -14 +2 B- B- F -16 C+ F C+
 Fri, Jan 9 153 Wright St. L 82 - 84 32% -6  4 - 9 3 - 3 -4 +6 D+ A+ B+ -10 D- B+ C+
 Sun, Jan 11 320 Cleveland St. W 94 - 84 69% +11  5 - 9 4 - 3 -3 +5 C+ B- F -8 F+ A C-
 Thu, Jan 15 180 @Northern Kentucky L 71 - 96 20% -12  5 - 10 4 - 4 -23 -6 F B- A+ -15 F C F
 Sat, Jan 17 340 @IU Indianapolis W 80 - 77 54% -1  6 - 10 5 - 4 -5 -4 F F C -1 B- F C+
 Wed, Jan 21 218 Purdue Fort Wayne L 76 - 83 46% -2  6 - 11 5 - 5 -13 -2 D- F B -11 D+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 24 135 Oakland L 87 - 95 29% -4  6 - 12 5 - 6 -10 +10 A C C- -20 F+ C- F
 Fri, Jan 30 180 Northern Kentucky L 78 - 81 39%
 Wed, Feb 4 244 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 75 - 81 29%
 Sat, Feb 7 243 @Green Bay L 72 - 78 29%
 Thu, Feb 12 153 @Wright St. L 71 - 82 16%
 Sun, Feb 15 222 Youngstown St. L 76 - 77 47%
 Fri, Feb 20 244 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79 - 78 51%
 Sun, Feb 22 243 Green Bay W 75 - 74 51%
 Wed, Feb 25 208 @Robert Morris L 72 - 80 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 135 @Oakland L 78 - 90 14%
Totals 9 - 18 8 - 12 -7 -2 D C- C+ -5 C- D+ D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 3.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.6 1.6 0.1 6.1 5th
6th 0.4 4.8 4.2 0.4 9.7 6th
7th 0.3 5.6 9.2 1.4 0.0 16.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 8.4 14.6 4.2 0.2 28.5 8th
9th 1.5 8.2 12.4 4.4 0.2 26.7 9th
10th 2.0 3.6 1.6 0.1 7.4 10th
11th 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 3.8 13.1 22.8 25.1 19.1 10.2 4.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 25.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 2.7% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 5.4% 5.4% 15.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 1.2% 6.0% 6.0% 15.3 0.1 0.0 1.2
11-9 4.5% 4.6% 4.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.3
10-10 10.2% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 9.9
9-11 19.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 18.8
8-12 25.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 24.9
7-13 22.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 22.6
6-14 13.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.0
5-15 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.9 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.7%