Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.6 #222
Expected Predictive Rating -7.2 #280
Pace 68.8 #178
Improvement -3.3 #318

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #230 C C+ D D+ B-
Defense #220 C- C+ B- F+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #310 1.16 #175 -2.9 #284
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #326 0.69 #280 -3.3 #329
Three Pointers 54% #10 0.98 #226 +5.6 #30
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #193 -0.6 #191
Freethrows 0.27 #287 70% #243 0.19 #293
Second Chance 32.5% #129 1.05 #169 0.34 #125
Turnovers 19.1% #329
Total Offense -2.3 #230

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #74 1.27 #317 -4.8 #333
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #82 0.66 #42 -0.1 #187
Three Pointers 34% #348 1.05 #240 +3.1 #61
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #234 -1.8 #236
Freethrows 0.37 #336 75% #311 0.28 #345
Second Chance 31.4% #218 0.97 #82 0.30 #135
Turnovers 18.4% #71
Total Defense -1.3 #220

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #99 -0.2% #145
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.6% #217 3.6% #250
Possession Length 18.4 #276 16.7 #77
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #168 0.24 #349
Improvement +0.0 #186 -3.2 #337

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 4.7% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 14.2% 16.1% 3.8%
.500 or above in Conference 13.5% 15.4% 3.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 2.1% 19.2%
First Four2.0% 1.8% 2.7%
First Round3.8% 4.1% 2.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: IU Indianapolis (Home) - 84.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 32 - 83 - 10
Quad 410 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 93 @Pittsburgh L 59 - 74 13% -3  0 - 1 -6 -7 C+ F D+ -1 B F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 71 @Grand Canyon W 90 - 81 10% +3  1 - 1 +20 +23 A+ A A+ -4 C+ F B-
 Sat, Nov 15 150 @St. Bonaventure L 80 - 84 24% +5  1 - 2 -0 +7 C- A+ D- -7 F+ B A+
 Wed, Nov 19 165 @Toledo L 75 - 92 28% -8  1 - 3 -14 -4 D+ A- F -9 F+ D B
 Sun, Nov 23 305 UNC Greensboro L 62 - 68 68% +9  1 - 4 -14 -20 F F F +6 C A- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 246 Georgia Southern W 67 - 61 54% +4  2 - 4 +1 -8 C- B- F +9 B A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 28 358 Chicago St. W 87 - 64 90% +21  3 - 4 +5 +6 A+ F+ C -0 B- C+ C+
 Wed, Dec 3 153 Wright St. W 69 - 68 46% +0  4 - 4 1 - 0 -1 -6 D+ A+ F +4 C- A- B
 Sat, Dec 6 340 @IU Indianapolis W 78 - 55 68% +13  5 - 4 2 - 0 +15 +3 B- D+ F +13 A+ A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 208 @Robert Morris L 77 - 80 OT 36% +3  5 - 5 2 - 1 -3 +6 A+ B+ F -9 C- C D
 Sat, Dec 20 307 South Carolina Upstate W 74 - 65 77% +8  6 - 5 -2 -3 C+ F F+ +1 A- C- B
 Mon, Dec 29 289 Detroit Mercy L 68 - 73 74% -7  6 - 6 2 - 2 -15 -11 F F+ B -5 F+ A+ A-
 Thu, Jan 1 135 Oakland L 83 - 85 42% +4  6 - 7 2 - 3 -4 +10 D A+ A+ -14 F C C
 Sun, Jan 4 180 @Northern Kentucky L 79 - 94 31% -15  6 - 8 2 - 4 -13 -2 F D A+ -10 F D C+
 Wed, Jan 7 218 Purdue Fort Wayne L 69 - 71 61% -0  6 - 9 2 - 5 -8 -4 F A+ F -5 C- B- B-
 Thu, Jan 15 153 @Wright St. L 83 - 93 25% -5  6 - 10 2 - 6 -6 +16 C A+ B- -23 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 320 @Cleveland St. L 78 - 80 61% -1  6 - 11 2 - 7 -9 -0 D+ F C+ -8 F C B
 Thu, Jan 22 243 Green Bay W 88 - 81 65% +8  7 - 11 3 - 7 -1 +13 A B+ D -13 F B- B
 Sat, Jan 24 244 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 64 - 65 65% +1  7 - 12 3 - 8 -9 -11 D- F F +2 C C+ B-
 Fri, Jan 30 340 IU Indianapolis W 88 - 77 85%
 Wed, Feb 4 218 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 74 - 77 38%
 Sat, Feb 7 208 Robert Morris W 74 - 72 59%
 Thu, Feb 12 135 @Oakland L 77 - 85 23%
 Sun, Feb 15 289 @Detroit Mercy W 77 - 76 53%
 Wed, Feb 18 320 Cleveland St. W 83 - 74 80%
 Sat, Feb 21 180 Northern Kentucky W 77 - 76 53%
 Wed, Feb 25 244 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74 - 76 43%
 Sat, Feb 28 243 @Green Bay L 71 - 73 42%
Totals 12 - 16 8 - 12 -4 -2 C C+ D -1 C- C+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.2 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.3 1.1 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.5 4.6 4.4 0.2 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.3 5.1 8.4 1.5 0.0 15.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 8.2 15.1 4.4 0.2 29.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 8.0 12.0 4.0 0.2 25.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.4 4.4 2.0 0.1 10.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 11th
Total 0.1 1.5 5.5 13.9 22.5 24.9 18.2 10.2 2.9 0.4 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.4% 20.5% 20.5% 13.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-9 2.9% 12.5% 12.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.5
10-10 10.2% 9.2% 9.2% 15.1 0.1 0.7 0.2 9.3
9-11 18.2% 5.0% 5.0% 15.5 0.4 0.5 17.2
8-12 24.9% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.1 1.0 23.8
7-13 22.5% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.7 21.8
6-14 13.9% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.4 13.5
5-15 5.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 5.4
4-16 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 15.6 95.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%