Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#166
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#165
Pace69.9#174
Improvement+0.6#141

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#230
First Shot-1.0#202
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#259
Layup/Dunks-3.6#297
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#27
Freethrows-2.1#304
Improvement-2.5#341

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#118
First Shot+1.2#126
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#159
Layups/Dunks-5.4#340
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#199
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.4#4
Freethrows-1.7#287
Improvement+3.1#16
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.7% 19.0% 13.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 87.2% 94.4% 81.9%
.500 or above in Conference 91.0% 96.6% 86.8%
Conference Champion 25.8% 37.2% 17.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round15.5% 18.9% 13.1%
Second Round0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Away) - 42.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 413 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 107 @Pittsburgh L 59-74 24%     0 - 1 -8.2 -8.2 -1.0
  Fri, Nov 7 91 @Grand Canyon W 90-81 19%     1 - 1 +17.7 +20.5 -3.1
  Sat, Nov 15 113 @St. Bonaventure L 80-84 25%     1 - 2 +2.4 +10.5 -8.1
  Wed, Nov 19 167 @Toledo L 75-92 39%     1 - 3 -14.7 -4.4 -9.3
  Sun, Nov 23 281 UNC Greensboro L 62-68 72%     1 - 4 -12.5 -17.2 +4.9
  Mon, Nov 24 231 Georgia Southern W 67-61 63%     2 - 4 +2.0 -7.1 +9.2
  Fri, Nov 28 350 Chicago St. W 87-64 91%     3 - 4 +7.4 +5.5 +1.9
  Wed, Dec 3 143 Wright St. W 69-68 55%     4 - 4 1 - 0 -1.0 -3.4 +2.5
  Sat, Dec 6 355 @IU Indianapolis W 78-55 84%     5 - 4 2 - 0 +11.9 +2.0 +11.0
  Wed, Dec 17 182 @Robert Morris L 69-71 43%    
  Sat, Dec 20 261 South Carolina Upstate W 76-68 77%    
  Mon, Dec 29 298 Detroit Mercy W 77-67 82%    
  Thu, Jan 1 149 Oakland W 81-79 56%    
  Sun, Jan 4 194 @Northern Kentucky L 72-74 45%    
  Wed, Jan 7 220 Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-73 71%    
  Thu, Jan 15 143 @Wright St. L 68-73 34%    
  Sat, Jan 17 319 @Cleveland St. W 79-73 70%    
  Thu, Jan 22 277 Green Bay W 75-66 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 229 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-72 71%    
  Fri, Jan 30 355 IU Indianapolis W 92-75 93%    
  Wed, Feb 4 220 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 75-76 49%    
  Sat, Feb 7 182 Robert Morris W 72-68 64%    
  Thu, Feb 12 149 @Oakland L 78-82 35%    
  Sun, Feb 15 298 @Detroit Mercy W 74-70 63%    
  Wed, Feb 18 319 Cleveland St. W 82-70 85%    
  Sat, Feb 21 194 Northern Kentucky W 75-71 66%    
  Wed, Feb 25 229 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-75 51%    
  Sat, Feb 28 277 @Green Bay W 72-69 59%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.9 7.2 5.4 2.8 0.9 0.2 25.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.9 7.6 5.6 2.1 0.4 0.1 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.7 7.0 3.7 0.8 0.1 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.8 3.0 0.4 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 4.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.3 2.1 0.3 7.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.6 7.0 10.2 13.1 14.6 14.6 12.4 9.4 5.8 2.9 0.9 0.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9
18-2 98.3% 2.8    2.7 0.1 0.0
17-3 93.7% 5.4    4.7 0.7 0.0
16-4 76.9% 7.2    4.9 2.1 0.2
15-5 47.6% 5.9    2.7 2.5 0.7 0.1
14-6 19.6% 2.9    0.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-7 3.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 25.8% 25.8 16.7 6.8 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 50.8% 50.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.9% 43.5% 43.5% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
18-2 2.9% 35.3% 35.3% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.9
17-3 5.8% 30.4% 30.4% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 4.0
16-4 9.4% 27.6% 27.6% 13.9 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.4 6.8
15-5 12.4% 22.0% 22.0% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.9 0.0 9.7
14-6 14.6% 18.0% 18.0% 14.5 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.1 12.0
13-7 14.6% 13.2% 13.2% 14.7 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.2 12.6
12-8 13.1% 9.8% 9.8% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 11.8
11-9 10.2% 7.2% 7.2% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 9.4
10-10 7.0% 4.8% 4.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.7
9-11 4.6% 3.7% 3.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 4.5
8-12 2.5% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 2.4
7-13 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.3
6-14 0.5% 0.5
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 5.6 5.2 1.4 84.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 41.4 48.3