Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.4 #180
Expected Predictive Rating -1.9 #198
Pace 72.6 #82
Improvement +0.9 #136

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #167 C C C- C B-
Defense #218 D+ D+ B C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #140 1.19 #132 +1.5 #123
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #280 0.66 #319 -2.3 #298
Three Pointers 44% #127 0.95 #267 +0.0 #180
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #208 -0.8 #200
Freethrows 0.28 #243 75% #99 0.21 #200
Second Chance 30.7% #177 1.09 #112 0.34 #138
Turnovers 17.2% #234
Total Offense -0.1 #167

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #179 1.18 #209 -0.7 #203
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #173 0.88 #340 -1.0 #263
Three Pointers 41% #199 1.09 #285 -1.2 #238
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #279 -2.9 #274
Freethrows 0.33 #286 70% #55 0.23 #250
Second Chance 33.2% #291 1.09 #254 0.36 #289
Turnovers 19.1% #51
Total Defense -1.3 #218

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #91 0.1% #166
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.3% #233 6.3% #300
Possession Length 16.0 #54 17.6 #217
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #11 0.18 #222
Improvement +1.9 #85 -1.0 #249

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.8% 15.4% 11.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 94.5% 97.9% 89.0%
.500 or above in Conference 89.1% 95.1% 79.6%
Conference Champion 3.8% 5.5% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round13.7% 15.3% 11.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Away) - 61.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 63 - 8
Quad 415 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 20 @Tennessee L 56 - 95 3% -18  0 - 1 -19 -6 D+ B+ D -14 D- D C
 Wed, Nov 12 129 @East Tennessee St. L 63 - 75 27% -8  0 - 2 -7 -9 F F+ F +2 F A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 20 304 @Central Michigan W 90 - 66 65% +13  1 - 2 +19 +17 B+ A C- +3 C- F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 258 Eastern Kentucky W 82 - 71 74% +4  2 - 2 +3 +1 D A- D+ +2 B C- B-
 Wed, Nov 26 211 Wofford W 93 - 83 67% +2  3 - 2 +4 +10 B- B A- -6 C C C
 Sat, Nov 29 278 Boston University W 74 - 65 79% -2  4 - 2 -1 +2 F A+ F -2 D D A+
 Wed, Dec 3 320 Cleveland St. W 95 - 80 85% +8  5 - 2 1 - 0 +2 +10 A A F -8 F+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 218 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 79 46% +2  5 - 3 1 - 1 -2 -2 D- D+ F -0 F B+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 302 @Bellarmine W 80 - 76 64% +6  6 - 3 -1 -1 D+ F+ C+ +0 D C- A+
 Wed, Dec 17 135 Oakland L 77 - 82 51% -2  6 - 4 1 - 2 -7 -4 D- C- B- -2 C+ B+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 162 College of Charleston L 74 - 85 56% -4  6 - 5 -14 -4 C D+ F -9 F D- A-
 Mon, Dec 29 208 @Robert Morris W 79 - 77 44% -1  7 - 5 2 - 2 +2 +4 C+ D- D+ -2 C- F B+
 Thu, Jan 1 340 IU Indianapolis W 81 - 72 88% -3  8 - 5 3 - 2 -5 -1 C D- B+ -4 C- F A+
 Sun, Jan 4 222 Youngstown St. W 94 - 79 69% +15  9 - 5 4 - 2 +8 +8 B+ B+ C -1 B+ B- F
 Fri, Jan 9 244 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 85 - 67 51% +13  10 - 5 5 - 2 +16 +19 D A+ B- -1 C+ C- C-
 Sun, Jan 11 243 @Green Bay L 78 - 80 51% -13  10 - 6 5 - 3 -4 +14 C F+ A+ -18 F D C-
 Thu, Jan 15 289 Detroit Mercy W 96 - 71 80% +12  11 - 6 6 - 3 +15 +10 A C- B- +3 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 208 Robert Morris L 89 - 92 OT 67% -3  11 - 7 6 - 4 -9 -3 D+ D C- -5 C- D- B-
 Sat, Jan 24 153 @Wright St. L 80 - 88 32% -9  11 - 8 6 - 5 -4 +7 A C D- -11 D C D
 Fri, Jan 30 289 @Detroit Mercy W 81 - 78 61%
 Sun, Feb 1 135 @Oakland L 82 - 88 30%
 Wed, Feb 4 243 Green Bay W 78 - 72 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 244 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 81 - 75 72%
 Thu, Feb 12 340 @IU Indianapolis W 90 - 83 75%
 Wed, Feb 18 218 Purdue Fort Wayne W 81 - 76 68%
 Sat, Feb 21 222 @Youngstown St. L 76 - 77 47%
 Wed, Feb 25 320 @Cleveland St. W 84 - 79 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 153 Wright St. W 78 - 77 54%
Totals 16 - 12 11 - 9 -1 +0 C C C- -1 D+ D+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.5 2.0 1.2 3.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.1 3.9 0.3 10.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 10.4 9.9 1.9 0.0 24.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 9.9 10.4 2.1 0.0 24.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 6.1 8.6 2.0 0.0 17.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.8 5.9 1.8 0.1 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.4 1.5 0.1 6.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.6 7.7 15.4 22.9 23.8 17.6 7.9 1.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 76.7% 1.2    0.7 0.5 0.1
14-6 26.0% 2.0    0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1
13-7 3.0% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 1.6% 27.0% 27.0% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2
14-6 7.9% 23.5% 23.5% 13.9 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.3 6.0
13-7 17.6% 19.2% 19.2% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.3 0.1 14.2
12-8 23.8% 15.4% 15.4% 14.7 0.1 1.1 2.2 0.3 20.1
11-9 22.9% 12.0% 12.0% 15.1 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.6 20.2
10-10 15.4% 8.5% 8.5% 15.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 14.0
9-11 7.7% 4.0% 4.0% 15.5 0.1 0.2 7.4
8-12 2.6% 3.4% 3.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.5
7-13 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 14.6 86.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.0 20.7 57.5 19.5 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%