Oakland
Horizon
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.4 #135
Expected Predictive Rating +2.1 #132
Pace 74.2 #54
Improvement -2.0 #279

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #65 C C+ B+ B C+
Defense #292 D C C- B B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #36 1.16 #165 +3.9 #60
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #194 0.72 #228 -0.6 #210
Three Pointers 35% #306 1.04 #140 -2.5 #266
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #154 +0.8 #153
Freethrows 0.35 #56 75% #80 0.26 #41
Second Chance 31.5% #155 1.11 #98 0.35 #113
Turnovers 13.2% #22
Total Offense +5.4 #65

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #254 1.33 #348 -1.5 #229
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #98 0.93 #358 -2.9 #350
Three Pointers 41% #173 0.99 #148 +0.3 #164
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #307 -4.1 #307
Freethrows 0.24 #30 72% #199 0.18 #33
Second Chance 33.5% #298 0.95 #63 0.32 #180
Turnovers 15.3% #241
Total Defense -4.0 #292

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #111 -1.0% #94
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.4% #169 9.0% #326
Possession Length 16.4 #85 16.8 #89
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #21 0.15 #101
Improvement -1.7 #272 -0.3 #212

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.3% 31.2% 27.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.0
.500 or above 96.4% 98.9% 93.1%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 53.5% 66.0% 37.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round29.3% 31.2% 26.9%
Second Round1.3% 1.5% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue Fort Wayne (Away) - 56.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 36 - 36 - 10
Quad 413 - 419 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 1 @Michigan L 78 - 121 2% -27  0 - 1 -15 +12 A+ D A -23 F D+ F+
 Fri, Nov 7 8 @Purdue L 77 - 87 3% -3  0 - 2 +13 +13 C+ A- A +1 B- A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 4 @Houston L 45 - 78 3% -21  0 - 3 -9 -10 D- F+ B+ -3 C+ C+ D
 Mon, Nov 17 49 @Central Florida L 83 - 87 13% -5  0 - 4 +10 +12 C+ C A- -2 C C C
 Fri, Nov 21 241 @Eastern Michigan L 91 - 97 61% -1  0 - 5 -7 +14 B+ B A+ -21 F B+ C-
 Mon, Nov 24 207 Lamar W 83 - 68 66% +4  1 - 5 +12 +9 D+ A+ B- +3 B- D- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 161 @Montana W 95 - 87 44% +4  2 - 5 +11 +15 A+ F+ B -5 D+ F C+
 Wed, Dec 3 218 Purdue Fort Wayne W 101 - 92 77% +8  3 - 5 1 - 0 +3 +15 A- C+ A+ -14 D C F+
 Sat, Dec 6 165 Toledo W 98 - 97 68% -1  4 - 5 -2 +10 C- B A+ -13 D F C
 Sat, Dec 13 108 @Northern Iowa L 63 - 75 29% -5  4 - 6 -5 -4 C C F -0 C B D
 Wed, Dec 17 180 @Northern Kentucky W 82 - 77 49% +2  5 - 6 2 - 0 +7 +6 D D- A+ +0 C+ B- D-
 Sat, Dec 20 6 Michigan St. L 70 - 79 5% -4  5 - 7 +12 +12 A C+ C -1 B+ B- C-
 Mon, Dec 29 153 @Wright St. L 73 - 88 42% -14  5 - 8 2 - 1 -11 -1 D- D D+ -11 F B- B-
 Thu, Jan 1 222 @Youngstown St. W 85 - 83 58% -4  6 - 8 3 - 1 +1 +18 A B- A+ -16 C F F
 Sun, Jan 4 208 Robert Morris W 96 - 73 76% +14  7 - 8 4 - 1 +17 +21 C- A- A+ -4 C- B+ D
 Fri, Jan 9 320 Cleveland St. W 97 - 72 90% +14  8 - 8 5 - 1 +12 +9 F+ A+ D+ +2 A+ D- D-
 Sun, Jan 11 153 Wright St. L 84 - 94 65% -17  8 - 9 5 - 2 -12 +5 C D A+ -17 F A A+
 Thu, Jan 15 244 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 73 - 60 61% +9  9 - 9 6 - 2 +11 -6 F B+ F +16 A+ C+ B
 Sun, Jan 18 243 @Green Bay W 88 - 63 61% +11  10 - 9 7 - 2 +23 +19 B+ A+ C- +6 C+ A- B-
 Wed, Jan 21 340 IU Indianapolis L 85 - 103 92% -8  10 - 10 7 - 3 -32 +1 F B- A -34 F F D
 Sat, Jan 24 289 @Detroit Mercy W 95 - 87 71% +4  11 - 10 8 - 3 +4 +20 B C+ A+ -16 F C C+
 Wed, Jan 28 218 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 85 - 83 57%
 Sun, Feb 1 180 Northern Kentucky W 88 - 82 70%
 Wed, Feb 4 320 @Cleveland St. W 91 - 83 77%
 Thu, Feb 12 222 Youngstown St. W 85 - 77 77%
 Sun, Feb 15 208 @Robert Morris W 81 - 80 54%
 Fri, Feb 20 243 Green Bay W 84 - 75 80%
 Sun, Feb 22 244 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 88 - 79 80%
 Wed, Feb 25 340 @IU Indianapolis W 97 - 87 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 289 Detroit Mercy W 90 - 78 86%
Totals 18 - 12 15 - 5 +1 +5 C C+ B+ -4 D C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 7.9 18.5 18.8 7.1 53.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 7.1 13.5 9.3 2.7 0.2 33.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.4 4.4 1.4 0.1 8.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.4 13.2 22.8 28.0 21.5 7.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 97.2% 7.1    6.3 0.8
16-4 87.7% 18.8    14.3 4.5 0.0
15-5 66.3% 18.5    10.5 7.4 0.6
14-6 34.6% 7.9    2.2 4.0 1.6 0.1
13-7 8.7% 1.1    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 53.5% 53.5 33.3 17.1 2.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 7.3% 39.4% 39.4% 12.5 0.1 1.4 1.3 0.1 4.4
16-4 21.5% 35.5% 35.5% 13.4 0.6 3.8 3.0 0.2 13.9
15-5 28.0% 30.3% 30.3% 13.7 0.2 2.8 4.5 1.0 0.0 19.5
14-6 22.8% 26.6% 26.6% 14.0 0.0 1.2 3.5 1.4 16.7
13-7 13.2% 23.5% 23.5% 14.5 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.5 0.0 10.1
12-8 5.4% 17.0% 17.0% 14.8 0.2 0.7 0.0 4.5
11-9 1.6% 16.6% 16.6% 15.3 0.2 0.1 1.3
10-10 0.3% 11.9% 11.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 29.3% 29.3% 0.0% 13.7 70.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.9% 100.0% 12.5 2.3 48.8 44.4 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8%