Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
159 Marist 24.6%   15   12 - 7 7 - 4 0.0      -5.5 314 +5.5 48 65.8 264 -1.5 191 -2.1 4
173 Siena 19.0%   14 - 7 7 - 3 -0.9      -0.8 187 -0.2 170 63.7 314 -1.5 192 -2.9 5
176 Quinnipiac 17.6%   13 - 8 7 - 4 -1.4      -1.9 219 +0.5 148 75.2 39 +0.7 150 -1.9 3
206 Merrimack 13.8%   13 - 9 9 - 2 -2.8      -2.7 245 -0.1 168 62.5 341 +0.3 154 +4.3 1
225 Iona 8.0%   14 - 8 6 - 5 -3.7      -3.8 277 +0.1 162 73.9 58 -0.8 179 -5.4 6
226 St. Peter's 9.8%   10 - 7 8 - 2 -3.8      -4.4 290 +0.6 143 64.5 293 -1.9 197 +2.4 2
272 Fairfield 2.4%   12 - 9 5 - 6 -6.2      -1.6 210 -4.6 308 68.0 208 -4.7 235 -9.4 10
277 Sacred Heart 2.4%   8 - 13 5 - 6 -6.6      -1.0 191 -5.6 332 71.4 111 -8.1 296 -8.4 8
286 Mount St. Mary's 1.8%   8 - 13 5 - 6 -7.3      -6.0 325 -1.3 217 69.6 164 -7.0 278 -6.7 7
326 Manhattan 0.3%   7 - 14 4 - 7 -10.2      -3.1 259 -7.1 350 69.7 160 -9.3 318 -8.8 9
342 Canisius 0.2%   7 - 13 3 - 7 -11.7      -8.7 355 -3.0 268 62.5 339 -8.9 310 -11.1 11
349 Niagara 0.1%   4 - 15 2 - 8 -12.3      -7.1 340 -5.2 322 59.7 363 -13.9 350 -13.3 12
352 Rider 0.0%   1 - 17 1 - 9 -13.2      -8.1 349 -5.1 321 63.6 316 -23.1 362 -17.1 13


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 30 272 Fairfield 73 225 Iona 79 70%   
Fri, Jan 30 286 Mount St. Mary's 64 226 St. Peter's 71 73%   
Fri, Jan 30 176 Quinnipiac 84 277 Sacred Heart 76 78%   
Fri, Jan 30 326 Manhattan 75 352 Rider 69 72%   
Fri, Jan 30 342 Canisius 57 159 Marist 66 80%   
Fri, Jan 30 349 Niagara 61 173 Siena 69 79%   
Sun, Feb 1 206 Merrimack 76 277 Sacred Heart 69 74%   
Sun, Feb 1 272 Fairfield 76 176 Quinnipiac 78 57%   
Sun, Feb 1 326 Manhattan 72 286 Mount St. Mary's 78 72%   
Sun, Feb 1 342 Canisius 61 173 Siena 69 77%   
Sun, Feb 1 352 Rider 62 226 St. Peter's 69 73%   
Sun, Feb 1 159 Marist 66 349 Niagara 57 81%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Marist 2.8 24.8 22.6 20.2 15.8 10.6 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.1
Siena 3.1 23.8 19.0 16.8 15.6 13.5 8.5 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Quinnipiac 3.0 20.1 22.5 21.7 17.6 11.2 5.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Merrimack 2.1 48.6 20.6 13.1 9.3 5.5 2.3 0.5 0.1
Iona 5.2 2.4 5.3 9.3 14.6 21.6 28.5 11.8 4.3 1.7 0.5 0.1
St. Peter's 3.1 24.3 20.5 17.5 14.8 12.3 7.2 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
Fairfield 8.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.8 9.6 19.7 23.1 22.8 13.8 4.1 0.5 0.0
Sacred Heart 7.8 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 4.1 10.8 24.9 24.9 18.4 10.9 2.9 0.4 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 7.3 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.8 6.8 15.4 28.9 23.0 13.1 6.2 1.9 0.4 0.0
Manhattan 9.2 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.4 9.0 15.4 24.1 26.7 14.8 4.6 0.6
Canisius 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.3 4.6 10.8 19.7 35.0 20.7 6.0
Niagara 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 5.2 11.6 25.6 37.5 17.5
Rider 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 4.0 12.1 28.4 54.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Marist 14 - 6 19 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.3 13.7 23.3 27.7 20.4 7.7
Siena 13 - 7 20 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 8.2 16.2 22.4 23.8 16.7 7.4 1.5
Quinnipiac 13 - 7 19 - 11 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 6.4 14.7 24.6 28.2 18.3 5.6
Merrimack 15 - 5 19 - 12 0.1 0.5 2.3 6.9 15.7 22.5 25.1 17.0 8.2 1.7
Iona 12 - 8 20 - 11 0.0 0.3 1.9 6.1 14.9 23.5 25.3 18.9 7.6 1.5
St. Peter's 14 - 6 16 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.9 8.0 15.2 21.4 22.9 17.1 8.6 2.8 0.4
Fairfield 9 - 11 16 - 14 1.2 6.2 15.2 21.9 23.7 17.9 9.6 3.4 0.8 0.1
Sacred Heart 9 - 11 12 - 18 0.4 3.3 11.0 20.2 26.6 21.1 11.7 4.5 1.0 0.1
Mount St. Mary's 10 - 10 13 - 17 0.2 1.7 6.6 16.5 24.0 24.5 16.5 7.7 2.2 0.2
Manhattan 8 - 12 11 - 19 1.1 6.9 16.7 24.0 23.8 16.2 7.9 2.7 0.6 0.0
Canisius 6 - 14 10 - 20 3.5 12.8 21.9 25.1 19.2 10.8 4.7 1.7 0.4 0.1
Niagara 5 - 15 7 - 22 3.4 12.5 22.0 25.2 19.0 11.4 4.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Rider 4 - 16 4 - 24 4.0 15.1 25.7 26.2 17.2 8.1 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Marist 24.8% 9.5 9.3 4.2 1.5 0.3 0.0
Siena 23.8% 11.2 7.8 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0
Quinnipiac 20.1% 6.6 8.0 3.8 1.4 0.3 0.0
Merrimack 48.6% 28.3 13.7 4.7 1.5 0.3 0.0
Iona 2.4% 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 24.3% 11.1 8.2 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.0
Fairfield 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sacred Heart 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Manhattan
Canisius
Niagara
Rider


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Marist 24.6% 24.6% 0.0% 15   0.5 3.5 9.3 9.6 1.7 75.4 0.0%
Siena 19.0% 19.0% 0.0% 0.1 1.5 6.2 9.3 2.0 81.0 0.0%
Quinnipiac 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 0.2 2.3 7.1 7.2 0.9 82.4 0.0%
Merrimack 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 3.6 7.9 1.8 86.2 0.0%
Iona 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.3 1.7 92.0 0.0%
St. Peter's 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.2 1.4 5.5 2.7 90.2 0.0%
Fairfield 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 97.6 0.0%
Sacred Heart 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.1 97.6 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.5 98.2 0.0%
Manhattan 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Canisius 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Niagara 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Rider 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.5% 1.0 2.5 97.5
2nd Round 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Marist 24.6% 0.2% 24.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 19.0% 0.2% 18.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 17.6% 0.0% 17.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 13.8% 0.2% 13.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 8.0% 0.3% 7.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 9.8% 0.5% 9.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 2.4% 0.7% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 2.4% 1.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 1.8% 1.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%