Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
156 Marist 24.5%   15   6 - 2 2 - 0 20 - 8 15 - 5 +0.2      -5.1 305 +5.3 45 67.6 232 +1.1 157 +3.8 2
165 Siena 21.4%   9 - 2 2 - 0 22 - 9 14 - 6 -0.3      -1.5 206 +1.2 129 64.7 304 +3.0 129 +0.1 4
169 Quinnipiac 19.2%   7 - 3 2 - 0 20 - 10 15 - 5 -0.8      -1.9 219 +1.2 131 77.3 25 +7.0 87 +13.6 1
171 Iona 18.3%   8 - 4 1 - 1 21 - 10 14 - 6 -0.9      -0.4 177 -0.5 185 76.2 36 +2.2 138 -3.0 6
257 Sacred Heart 4.9%   3 - 6 1 - 1 14 - 16 11 - 9 -5.3      -0.9 188 -4.3 316 71.7 124 -5.7 250 -4.2 8
271 Merrimack 3.8%   6 - 7 2 - 0 14 - 17 10 - 10 -5.8      -4.0 273 -1.8 234 62.7 337 -2.8 213 +3.0 3
293 St. Peter's 2.6%   4 - 5 2 - 0 12 - 15 10 - 10 -7.2      -5.3 312 -1.9 239 62.4 341 -7.8 285 +0.1 4
294 Fairfield 1.8%   6 - 5 0 - 2 15 - 15 8 - 12 -7.4      -3.7 268 -3.6 293 68.4 214 -4.4 236 -20.1 12
298 Mount St. Mary's 1.9%   3 - 8 0 - 2 12 - 18 9 - 11 -7.5      -4.4 291 -3.0 274 68.4 215 -9.4 305 -20.3 13
320 Manhattan 0.9%   3 - 7 1 - 1 11 - 19 8 - 12 -9.4      -1.6 211 -7.8 357 70.0 168 -9.6 307 -3.6 7
340 Canisius 0.3%   4 - 6 0 - 2 10 - 20 6 - 14 -11.2      -7.9 353 -3.3 283 62.3 344 -7.5 277 -17.0 10
348 Rider 0.3%   0 - 8 0 - 2 6 - 22 6 - 14 -12.0      -9.8 360 -2.2 248 64.4 312 -24.4 365 -16.0 9
353 Niagara 0.1%   2 - 8 0 - 2 7 - 22 5 - 15 -13.1      -8.1 355 -5.1 334 63.3 326 -14.8 346 -17.0 10




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 13 171 Iona 64 16 St. John's 91   
Sat, Dec 13 297 Bryant 74 156 Marist 82   
Sat, Dec 13 169 Quinnipiac 75 302 Umass Lowell 71   
Sat, Dec 13 340 Canisius 70 336 Maine 43   
Sat, Dec 13 339 Loyola Maryland 73 298 Mount St. Mary's 81   
Sat, Dec 13 196 Fordham 82 320 Manhattan 53   
Sat, Dec 13 101 Georgetown 76 293 St. Peter's 68   
Sat, Dec 13 359 Morgan St. 81 353 Niagara 73   
Sat, Dec 13 352 NJIT 49 257 Sacred Heart 65   
Sun, Dec 14 271 Merrimack 59 186 Vermont 66   
Sun, Dec 14 294 Fairfield 73 220 Monmouth 65   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Dec 15 353 Niagara 56 51 Virginia Commonwealth 83 99%   
Tue, Dec 16 130 Georgia Tech 68 156 Marist 64 67%   
Tue, Dec 16 257 Sacred Heart 78 302 Umass Lowell 79 52%   
Tue, Dec 16 282 Delaware 69 348 Rider 61 79%   
Tue, Dec 16 340 Canisius 58 115 Rhode Island 75 94%   
Wed, Dec 17 165 Siena 68 186 Vermont 69 56%   
Wed, Dec 17 220 Monmouth 76 169 Quinnipiac 75 51%   
Thu, Dec 18 242 Central Connecticut St. 72 294 Fairfield 66 71%   
Thu, Dec 18 151 Furman 80 320 Manhattan 73 75%   
Fri, Dec 19 245 Dartmouth 78 257 Sacred Heart 80 60%   
Fri, Dec 19 272 Drexel 71 298 Mount St. Mary's 66 67%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Marist 2.7 34.9 20.7 16.2 12.1 7.2 4.2 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Siena 2.8 29.9 22.4 17.3 13.1 7.9 4.5 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Quinnipiac 2.7 31.5 24.5 17.7 11.4 6.7 3.9 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iona 3.2 19.8 23.0 20.7 16.2 9.3 5.1 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Sacred Heart 5.7 3.7 6.5 9.9 13.9 16.9 14.5 11.7 8.4 6.1 4.2 2.5 1.3 0.4
Merrimack 6.2 2.7 5.1 7.4 11.0 14.4 15.1 13.6 11.5 8.3 5.8 3.1 1.5 0.4
St. Peter's 7.0 1.7 3.2 5.4 8.0 11.5 13.7 13.7 12.4 11.4 9.2 5.9 3.1 0.9
Fairfield 8.1 0.4 1.2 2.4 4.5 7.5 11.3 13.1 14.0 14.0 12.7 9.5 6.2 3.2
Mount St. Mary's 7.8 0.5 1.4 3.2 5.9 9.0 12.0 13.3 13.8 13.1 11.0 8.1 5.5 3.2
Manhattan 8.3 0.4 1.0 2.4 4.3 6.9 9.9 12.4 13.9 14.1 13.0 10.5 7.2 4.0
Canisius 10.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.2 6.1 8.4 11.0 14.0 18.4 17.9 15.9
Rider 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.7 6.3 9.0 12.7 17.8 22.9 20.9
Niagara 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.3 4.9 7.6 11.1 16.4 22.8 30.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Marist 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.2 5.5 8.5 11.9 14.1 15.6 14.6 11.8 7.5 3.4 0.8
Siena 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.6 6.2 9.1 12.8 15.1 16.0 14.0 10.7 6.2 2.7 0.6
Quinnipiac 15 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 3.3 5.2 8.3 11.8 15.4 16.4 15.5 11.3 7.0 2.8 0.7
Iona 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.3 7.5 11.3 15.1 16.9 16.4 13.2 7.9 3.2 0.7
Sacred Heart 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.8 5.1 8.1 10.9 13.5 14.9 13.8 11.8 8.4 4.9 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.0
Merrimack 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.2 7.2 10.6 13.3 14.8 14.4 12.2 9.0 5.9 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Peter's 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.9 6.9 10.5 12.9 14.2 14.4 11.9 9.5 6.3 3.9 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 8 - 12 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.8 6.9 10.8 13.5 15.0 14.4 12.7 9.2 6.0 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.3 6.0 9.2 12.4 14.2 14.6 13.2 10.3 7.2 4.2 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0
Manhattan 8 - 12 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.5 7.9 11.3 14.2 14.9 14.0 11.5 8.3 5.4 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Canisius 6 - 14 0.3 1.8 4.9 8.7 11.8 15.0 15.4 13.6 10.8 7.8 5.1 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Rider 6 - 14 0.7 3.1 6.6 11.7 14.5 16.0 15.0 12.0 8.6 5.8 3.3 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Niagara 5 - 15 1.2 4.7 9.7 14.1 16.0 15.5 13.9 10.2 6.8 3.9 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Marist 34.9% 24.0 8.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
Siena 29.9% 19.6 7.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
Quinnipiac 31.5% 20.3 8.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
Iona 19.8% 10.6 6.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
Sacred Heart 3.7% 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Merrimack 2.7% 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 1.7% 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Canisius 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rider 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Niagara 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Marist 24.5% 24.5% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.2 1.3 5.0 8.7 7.3 2.0 75.5 0.0%
Siena 21.4% 21.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.8 8.0 7.1 1.7 78.6 0.0%
Quinnipiac 19.2% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.2 7.2 5.8 0.9 80.8 0.0%
Iona 18.3% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.4 6.9 2.1 81.7 0.0%
Sacred Heart 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.9 95.1 0.0%
Merrimack 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.2 96.2 0.0%
St. Peter's 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 97.4 0.0%
Fairfield 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 98.2 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.6 98.1 0.0%
Manhattan 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 99.1 0.0%
Canisius 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Rider 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Niagara 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Marist 24.5% 0.4% 24.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 21.4% 0.3% 21.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 19.2% 0.1% 19.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 18.3% 0.5% 18.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 4.9% 1.5% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 3.8% 1.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 2.6% 1.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 1.8% 0.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 1.9% 1.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.8% 1.0 4.2 95.8
2nd Round 3.5% 0.0 96.5 3.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0