Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
197 Colgate 28.8%   16   9 - 8 5 - 1 -2.4      +0.5 143 -2.9 263 67.4 227 -1.8 198 -0.1 2
198 Navy 28.1%   11 - 6 5 - 1 -2.4      -3.7 277 +1.3 120 66.6 248 -1.7 196 +1.4 1
235 American 18.9%   9 - 8 4 - 2 -4.1      -2.6 237 -1.4 219 68.0 216 -2.3 204 -2.8 3
285 Boston University 7.1%   6 - 12 2 - 4 -7.0      +0.5 145 -7.4 353 61.0 352 -9.1 313 -11.8 8
305 Lehigh 4.8%   6 - 12 4 - 3 -8.4      -4.5 296 -3.8 289 67.5 225 -9.4 315 -6.1 4
315 Lafayette 2.9%   4 - 14 2 - 4 -9.4      -5.2 307 -4.2 302 67.8 220 -12.1 337 -10.9 7
316 Bucknell 3.3%   6 - 13 3 - 3 -9.4      -7.6 345 -1.8 236 68.7 190 -8.2 298 -7.2 5
318 Holy Cross 3.0%   6 - 11 3 - 3 -9.6      -5.5 312 -4.1 297 64.5 292 -6.8 275 -7.4 6
323 Loyola Maryland 1.9%   4 - 14 2 - 5 -10.0      -3.7 275 -6.3 342 69.6 161 -14.3 346 -12.2 9
338 Army 1.2%   5 - 12 1 - 5 -11.2      -3.8 281 -7.4 352 68.3 207 -10.6 329 -15.7 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 17 305 Lehigh 79 198 Navy 82   
Sat, Jan 17 285 Boston University 57 323 Loyola Maryland 74   
Sat, Jan 17 318 Holy Cross 55 315 Lafayette 74   
Sat, Jan 17 316 Bucknell 76 197 Colgate 95   
Sun, Jan 18 235 American 78 338 Army 67   
Mon, Jan 19 305 Lehigh 88 323 Loyola Maryland 81   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 21 235 American 75 197 Colgate 73 55%   
Wed, Jan 21 285 Boston University 75 315 Lafayette 70 70%   
Wed, Jan 21 338 Army 70 316 Bucknell 75 68%   
Wed, Jan 21 318 Holy Cross 62 198 Navy 73 83%   
Sat, Jan 24 285 Boston University 70 197 Colgate 78 77%   
Sat, Jan 24 315 Lafayette 70 305 Lehigh 74 65%   
Sat, Jan 24 316 Bucknell 72 323 Loyola Maryland 74 59%   
Sat, Jan 24 235 American 71 318 Holy Cross 69 60%   
Sat, Jan 24 338 Army 66 198 Navy 78 86%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 1.9 47.1 30.3 15.4 4.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Navy 1.7 52.7 28.4 13.8 3.3 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
American 2.7 18.6 29.9 30.0 11.2 5.3 2.9 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0
Boston University 5.7 0.8 3.7 9.3 18.0 18.0 15.9 12.5 11.0 7.3 3.7
Lehigh 5.0 1.6 5.7 14.4 23.2 20.1 14.1 9.8 6.4 3.6 1.1
Lafayette 6.7 0.1 1.5 4.5 10.6 13.2 15.4 16.2 15.4 14.0 9.1
Bucknell 5.9 0.8 3.2 7.8 16.6 17.1 16.5 14.0 12.2 7.9 4.1
Holy Cross 6.0 0.8 2.7 7.4 15.7 17.0 16.1 14.8 12.4 8.7 4.4
Loyola Maryland 7.4 0.0 0.5 1.9 5.6 9.2 13.0 16.0 19.3 20.3 14.1
Army 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 4.3 7.4 10.0 14.9 21.1 38.8

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 13 - 5 17 - 12 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 5.4 11.1 17.2 21.0 20.1 14.1 6.3 1.6
Navy 13 - 5 19 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.7 9.5 16.6 21.1 20.2 15.7 7.9 2.0
American 12 - 6 17 - 12 0.1 0.3 1.6 3.6 7.6 13.2 19.1 20.4 18.1 10.7 4.5 1.0
Boston University 8 - 10 12 - 18 0.1 0.5 2.4 5.7 11.6 16.6 19.4 18.3 13.7 8.0 3.0 0.7 0.1
Lehigh 9 - 9 11 - 18 0.4 2.4 6.6 12.9 18.4 21.0 18.5 11.6 5.6 2.0 0.6 0.0
Lafayette 7 - 11 9 - 21 0.3 1.7 5.4 12.2 17.1 20.2 18.7 12.8 7.4 3.2 1.1 0.2
Bucknell 8 - 10 11 - 20 0.4 2.2 6.5 13.1 18.3 19.9 17.3 12.1 6.6 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
Holy Cross 8 - 10 11 - 18 0.5 2.6 6.9 13.1 19.0 20.4 16.9 11.3 6.1 2.6 0.6 0.1
Loyola Maryland 6 - 12 8 - 21 0.5 3.2 8.9 16.7 21.9 21.3 14.6 8.2 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
Army 5 - 13 9 - 20 1.1 3.9 10.7 18.8 20.6 19.3 13.6 7.3 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 47.1% 32.4 12.4 2.2 0.2 0.0
Navy 52.7% 37.6 12.7 2.3 0.2 0.0
American 18.6% 9.2 7.3 1.9 0.2 0.0
Boston University 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Lehigh 1.6% 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Lafayette 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bucknell 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1
Holy Cross 0.8% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
Loyola Maryland 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Army 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 28.8% 28.8% 0.0% 16   0.1 0.9 4.7 13.0 10.0 71.2 0.0%
Navy 28.1% 28.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 3.9 13.5 9.7 71.9 0.0%
American 18.9% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 7.7 9.8 81.1 0.0%
Boston University 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 6.6 92.9 0.0%
Lehigh 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.1 4.7 95.2 0.0%
Lafayette 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 2.9 97.1 0.0%
Bucknell 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 3.2 96.7 0.0%
Holy Cross 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.1 2.9 97.0 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 1.9 98.1 0.0%
Army 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 1.2 98.8 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 85.3% 0.9 14.7 85.3
2nd Round 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Colgate 28.8% 2.3% 27.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 28.1% 2.3% 26.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 18.9% 3.1% 17.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 7.1% 5.3% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 4.8% 4.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 2.9% 2.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 3.3% 3.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 3.0% 2.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 1.9% 1.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 1.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%