Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
119 East Tennessee St. 35.8%   14   10 - 5 4 - 0 +2.7      +1.4 124 +1.3 128 66.5 245 -0.4 173 +7.2 1
147 Furman 23.5%   9 - 5 3 - 1 +0.7      -0.1 171 +0.8 138 66.3 257 +2.1 132 -0.8 3
153 Mercer 21.2%   7 - 7 2 - 2 +0.3      +1.8 123 -1.5 225 74.7 51 +1.4 144 -2.9 4
228 Wofford 7.5%   9 - 6 3 - 1 -3.6      +0.5 146 -4.1 304 69.5 177 -0.4 172 +1.4 2
240 Samford 5.2%   7 - 8 2 - 2 -4.6      -0.6 182 -4.0 296 68.5 208 -3.7 226 -6.5 6
267 Chattanooga 2.9%   4 - 10 1 - 3 -6.0      -2.2 231 -3.8 292 66.5 247 -9.4 317 -11.5 10
288 UNC Greensboro 1.8%   4 - 11 2 - 2 -7.3      -1.4 203 -5.9 340 68.5 202 -8.2 293 -3.1 5
291 Western Carolina 1.7%   3 - 10 1 - 3 -7.5      -4.0 278 -3.5 283 74.5 54 -8.6 300 -11.3 9
339 VMI 0.4%   3 - 11 1 - 3 -11.1      -5.1 310 -6.0 342 68.9 188 -11.6 332 -9.6 7
358 The Citadel 0.0%   1 - 13 1 - 3 -14.9      -4.9 303 -10.1 365 62.8 335 -18.6 356 -10.5 8


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 10 153 Mercer 109 228 Wofford 97   
Sat, Jan 10 358 The Citadel 79 291 Western Carolina 77   
Sat, Jan 10 119 East Tennessee St. 86 288 UNC Greensboro 60   
Sat, Jan 10 147 Furman 69 339 VMI 48   
Sat, Jan 10 267 Chattanooga 88 240 Samford 79   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 14 147 Furman 75 240 Samford 72 59%   
Wed, Jan 14 267 Chattanooga 73 228 Wofford 79 70%   
Wed, Jan 14 119 East Tennessee St. 79 291 Western Carolina 72 75%   
Thu, Jan 15 153 Mercer 83 339 VMI 75 79%   
Thu, Jan 15 358 The Citadel 69 288 UNC Greensboro 80 84%   
Sat, Jan 17 147 Furman 78 228 Wofford 71 76%   
Sat, Jan 17 119 East Tennessee St. 76 240 Samford 72 66%   
Sat, Jan 17 267 Chattanooga 75 291 Western Carolina 77 56%   
Sat, Jan 17 153 Mercer 83 288 UNC Greensboro 78 67%   
Sat, Jan 17 358 The Citadel 70 339 VMI 77 74%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
East Tennessee St. 1.5 66.8 19.5 8.5 3.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Furman 2.4 27.4 32.6 21.3 11.1 4.8 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Mercer 2.8 16.9 30.3 26.0 14.4 6.4 3.6 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
Wofford 3.8 7.8 15.9 21.1 25.2 14.4 8.5 4.5 1.9 0.6 0.1
Samford 5.1 1.9 6.3 11.1 18.4 23.1 18.6 12.0 6.1 2.2 0.4
Chattanooga 6.4 0.3 1.5 4.3 8.7 15.6 19.9 21.3 17.3 8.8 2.5
UNC Greensboro 5.9 0.6 2.9 6.4 12.5 19.9 20.6 17.5 12.0 6.0 1.5
Western Carolina 6.9 0.2 1.0 2.7 6.2 12.5 16.7 19.6 21.3 15.6 4.2
VMI 8.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 4.4 7.9 13.3 22.7 32.1 17.0
The Citadel 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 4.8 10.6 24.8 56.9

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
East Tennessee St. 14 - 4 20 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.9 9.3 14.9 20.0 20.8 16.2 8.6 2.5
Furman 13 - 5 19 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.0 7.8 13.6 18.4 20.5 17.2 10.9 4.5 1.0
Mercer 12 - 6 17 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.0 6.2 11.5 16.0 19.3 19.0 14.2 7.4 1.7
Wofford 11 - 7 17 - 12 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.4 8.6 13.3 17.7 18.7 15.9 10.6 5.7 2.3 0.6 0.0
Samford 9 - 9 14 - 15 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 6.7 12.2 17.2 18.8 17.6 12.4 7.0 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
Chattanooga 7 - 11 10 - 18 0.1 0.3 1.5 4.8 9.8 15.3 19.4 18.7 14.2 9.1 4.6 1.8 0.4 0.1
UNC Greensboro 8 - 10 10 - 19 0.1 0.7 2.5 6.4 11.7 16.9 19.1 16.7 13.1 7.7 3.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 7 - 11 9 - 18 0.1 0.9 3.4 8.1 13.3 17.7 18.6 16.0 10.9 6.5 2.8 1.2 0.3 0.0
VMI 5 - 13 7 - 21 1.0 4.8 11.8 17.9 20.0 18.5 12.6 7.4 3.7 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 4 - 14 4 - 24 7.9 19.1 24.8 21.6 13.8 7.6 3.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
East Tennessee St. 66.8% 52.2 12.0 2.4 0.3 0.0
Furman 27.4% 16.4 8.7 2.0 0.3 0.0
Mercer 16.9% 8.0 6.6 2.0 0.3 0.0
Wofford 7.8% 3.9 2.7 1.1 0.2 0.0
Samford 1.9% 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Chattanooga 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
VMI 0.0% 0.0 0.0
The Citadel


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
East Tennessee St. 35.8% 35.8% 0.0% 14   0.2 2.7 10.3 15.3 6.6 0.6 64.2 0.0%
Furman 23.5% 23.5% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 6.5 10.3 4.9 0.6 76.5 0.0%
Mercer 21.2% 21.2% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 5.2 9.1 5.1 0.7 78.8 0.0%
Wofford 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.3 1.9 3.6 1.7 92.5 0.0%
Samford 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 2.1 2.5 94.8 0.0%
Chattanooga 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.5 97.1 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.6 98.2 0.0%
Western Carolina 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 98.3 0.0%
VMI 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.6 0.0%
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.9% 1.0 3.1 96.9
2nd Round 4.3% 0.0 95.7 4.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
East Tennessee St. 35.8% 0.1% 35.8% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 23.5% 0.1% 23.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 21.2% 0.1% 21.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 7.5% 0.3% 7.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 5.2% 1.1% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 2.9% 2.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 1.8% 1.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 1.7% 1.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%