Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
137 East Tennessee St. 31.0%   14   4 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 5 +1.6      +0.3 151 +1.3 124 64.8 303 +1.2 155 0.0 1
160 Furman 19.3%   2 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 6 -0.5      +0.2 154 -0.7 188 64.9 300 -0.2 175 0.0 1
188 Chattanooga 14.3%   2 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 7 -1.8      +1.0 132 -2.9 268 66.5 267 -2.4 206 0.0 1
206 Mercer 10.9%   3 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -3.0      +0.2 156 -3.2 280 75.7 49 +4.7 107 0.0 1
221 Samford 8.5%   4 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 8 -3.7      -0.5 175 -3.2 282 69.2 200 -3.0 219 0.0 1
225 Wofford 8.3%   3 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -3.8      -0.4 173 -3.4 288 70.8 153 -0.1 170 0.0 1
278 Western Carolina 3.7%   2 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 16 8 - 10 -6.4      -4.4 288 -1.9 226 74.5 69 -2.3 204 0.0 1
287 UNC Greensboro 3.1%   1 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 19 8 - 10 -6.8      -3.6 268 -3.3 284 69.0 209 -10.9 324 0.0 1
342 VMI 0.7%   1 - 6 0 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 13 -11.2      -4.8 307 -6.3 351 69.6 183 -13.1 337 0.0 1
358 The Citadel 0.2%   0 - 5 0 - 0 4 - 24 4 - 14 -13.8      -4.1 279 -9.7 365 63.4 325 -21.5 362 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Nov 24 228 Buffalo 78 342 VMI 70   
Mon, Nov 24 294 Bellarmine 70 358 The Citadel 58   
Tue, Nov 25 241 Delaware 73 287 UNC Greensboro 60   
Tue, Nov 25 337 Georgia St. 63 221 Samford 78   
Wed, Nov 26 198 Northern Kentucky 93 225 Wofford 83   
Wed, Nov 26 121 Miami (OH) 82 287 UNC Greensboro 71   
Wed, Nov 26 279 Appalachian St. 67 206 Mercer 75   
Wed, Nov 26 276 Houston Christian 72 358 The Citadel 65   
Wed, Nov 26 221 Samford 45 89 Utah Valley 89   
Wed, Nov 26 140 Bowling Green 81 342 VMI 48   
Thu, Nov 27 160 Furman 73 115 Richmond 72   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Nov 28 160 Furman 68 102 Illinois St. 73 69%   
Sat, Nov 29 190 Elon 83 206 Mercer 79 66%   
Sat, Nov 29 258 Eastern Kentucky 79 225 Wofford 78 56%   
Sat, Nov 29 86 High Point 87 278 Western Carolina 71 92%   
Sat, Nov 29 317 Central Arkansas 63 137 East Tennessee St. 76 88%   
Sat, Nov 29 68 Central Florida 92 342 VMI 70 97%   
Sun, Nov 30 188 Chattanooga 79 224 Tennessee St. 74 69%   
Sun, Nov 30 275 Presbyterian 71 358 The Citadel 63 77%   
Tue, Dec 2 78 Dayton 72 137 East Tennessee St. 63 80%   
Tue, Dec 2 218 UNC Asheville 76 287 UNC Greensboro 72 62%   
Tue, Dec 2 337 Georgia St. 72 206 Mercer 83 84%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
East Tennessee St. 2.4 44.0 21.8 13.1 8.6 5.8 3.4 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1
Furman 3.2 25.8 21.2 16.4 12.1 9.2 6.5 4.6 2.8 1.2 0.3
Chattanooga 3.8 17.5 18.1 15.8 14.5 11.4 9.5 6.5 4.3 2.0 0.5
Mercer 4.3 12.2 14.5 15.0 14.1 13.4 11.6 9.0 6.2 3.1 1.0
Samford 4.6 8.7 12.3 14.2 14.7 14.6 13.4 10.1 7.2 3.8 1.2
Wofford 4.7 8.8 11.8 13.3 14.5 14.0 12.9 10.5 8.3 4.3 1.6
Western Carolina 5.9 3.4 6.3 8.2 10.0 12.2 14.5 15.7 15.4 9.9 4.4
UNC Greensboro 6.2 2.4 4.8 6.8 10.0 11.8 14.9 17.1 16.8 10.7 4.7
VMI 8.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.5 4.5 7.0 12.0 19.0 30.0 22.3
The Citadel 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.6 6.6 12.8 25.7 47.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
East Tennessee St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.6 7.4 10.3 12.9 14.5 15.0 13.6 9.5 5.3 1.8
Furman 12 - 6 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.7 5.7 8.0 10.7 13.0 14.1 13.7 11.5 8.1 5.1 2.1 0.6
Chattanooga 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.8 3.3 5.3 8.0 10.8 12.7 13.2 14.0 11.6 8.3 5.8 2.7 1.1 0.2
Mercer 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.0 5.0 7.4 10.0 12.2 13.5 12.9 11.7 9.6 6.4 3.6 1.7 0.5 0.1
Samford 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.4 5.8 9.0 11.4 13.5 14.0 13.4 10.8 7.7 4.7 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.1
Wofford 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 4.2 6.4 9.0 11.3 13.4 13.6 12.5 9.8 7.9 4.7 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1
Western Carolina 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.9 5.7 8.6 10.9 13.2 13.2 12.6 10.6 8.1 5.9 3.6 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
UNC Greensboro 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.2 6.1 9.4 12.2 14.3 13.7 12.4 10.4 7.2 4.7 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
VMI 5 - 13 1.2 4.1 8.7 12.9 16.0 15.6 13.7 10.8 7.3 4.3 3.0 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 4 - 14 4.5 11.6 16.1 17.6 15.8 13.2 8.8 5.8 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
East Tennessee St. 44.0% 32.5 9.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Furman 25.8% 17.2 6.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Chattanooga 17.5% 10.9 5.0 1.3 0.3 0.0
Mercer 12.2% 7.2 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Samford 8.7% 4.7 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wofford 8.8% 5.1 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Western Carolina 3.4% 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro 2.4% 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
VMI 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
East Tennessee St. 31.0% 31.0% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.3 8.8 10.4 6.4 1.6 69.0 0.0%
Furman 19.3% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.6 6.3 5.7 2.5 80.7 0.0%
Chattanooga 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 1.7 3.9 5.1 3.2 85.7 0.0%
Mercer 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 0.3 1.5 3.2 3.9 2.0 89.1 0.0%
Samford 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.3 3.3 91.5 0.0%
Wofford 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.1 2.7 91.7 0.0%
Western Carolina 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.9 96.3 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 96.9 0.0%
VMI 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.3 0.0%
The Citadel 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
East Tennessee St. 31.0% 0.5% 30.8% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 19.3% 0.9% 18.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 14.3% 1.4% 13.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 10.9% 0.7% 10.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 8.5% 1.6% 7.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 8.3% 1.3% 7.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 3.7% 1.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 3.1% 1.9% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.1% 1.0 4.9 95.1
2nd Round 4.7% 0.0 95.3 4.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0