Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
70 McNeese St. 59.8%   12   7 - 2 2 - 1 23 - 6 18 - 4 +7.9      +2.9 108 +5.1 49 67.3 244 +9.3 67 -1.9 5
140 Stephen F. Austin 17.1%   6 - 2 1 - 0 20 - 9 15 - 7 +1.4      -0.3 175 +1.7 113 68.1 220 +2.9 131 +9.1 3
191 Incarnate Word 5.5%   2 - 5 1 - 2 14 - 14 12 - 10 -1.9      +2.1 117 -4.0 305 62.8 335 -3.7 231 -3.7 6
207 UT Rio Grande Valley 3.5%   2 - 6 0 - 1 13 - 16 11 - 11 -3.1      -3.3 256 +0.3 157 72.5 101 -5.3 247 -10.8 11
210 TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.4%   1 - 5 1 - 0 12 - 15 12 - 10 -3.3      -4.7 297 +1.4 123 68.4 213 -2.0 198 +14.6 1
223 Lamar 2.9%   3 - 4 0 - 1 14 - 15 10 - 12 -3.6      -5.5 319 +1.9 107 64.4 311 -3.6 228 -21.5 12
247 New Orleans 1.6%   3 - 8 1 - 1 12 - 19 10 - 12 -4.8      -0.9 187 -3.9 301 72.6 96 -2.2 203 -6.9 10
258 SE Louisiana 1.3%   3 - 6 1 - 1 11 - 19 9 - 13 -5.3      -5.5 316 +0.2 160 67.5 238 -5.9 251 -5.9 9
259 Nicholls St. 1.6%   1 - 7 1 - 0 10 - 20 10 - 12 -5.4      -4.2 284 -1.2 212 69.9 172 -9.8 310 +10.3 2
273 Northwestern St. 1.2%   1 - 8 1 - 1 10 - 19 10 - 12 -5.9      -1.0 191 -4.9 332 63.3 325 -8.2 291 +4.3 4
274 Houston Christian 1.0%   3 - 5 1 - 1 11 - 18 9 - 13 -5.9      -1.3 202 -4.6 326 62.4 340 -8.3 292 -5.1 8
303 East Texas A&M 0.4%   3 - 5 0 - 1 10 - 20 7 - 15 -7.9      -6.2 334 -1.7 228 72.5 103 -3.4 223 -4.3 7




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Dec 11 176 Texas Arlington 58 207 UT Rio Grande Valley 50   
Fri, Dec 12 70 McNeese St. 102 303 East Texas A&M 66   
Sat, Dec 13 274 Houston Christian 71 258 SE Louisiana 74   
Sat, Dec 13 81 California 79 273 Northwestern St. 70   
Sat, Dec 13 8 Houston 99 247 New Orleans 57   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Dec 15 49 TCU 79 191 Incarnate Word 63 92%   
Mon, Dec 15 258 SE Louisiana 72 303 East Texas A&M 66 70%   
Mon, Dec 15 274 Houston Christian 64 70 McNeese St. 75 84%   
Tue, Dec 16 223 Lamar 68 207 UT Rio Grande Valley 66 59%   
Wed, Dec 17 210 TX A&M Corpus Christi 65 140 Stephen F. Austin 72 77%   
Wed, Dec 17 274 Houston Christian 68 259 Nicholls St. 72 64%   
Fri, Dec 19 34 LSU 82 258 SE Louisiana 61 96%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.3 77.5 15.8 4.2 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 3.0 20.8 34.5 17.2 10.2 6.2 4.0 2.8 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2
Incarnate Word 5.2 2.7 13.2 16.6 15.0 12.6 10.5 8.6 6.8 5.2 4.1 3.0 1.7
UT Rio Grande Valley 6.0 2.3 8.8 12.7 12.7 11.7 10.2 9.7 8.6 7.3 6.5 5.7 3.9
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.5 4.5 12.6 14.4 13.2 11.2 9.7 8.6 7.2 6.3 5.3 4.2 2.8
Lamar 6.7 1.5 6.0 9.5 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.1 9.5 9.2 8.3 7.7 6.3
New Orleans 7.2 0.8 3.9 7.1 8.7 10.1 11.0 11.3 11.4 10.7 9.8 8.9 6.2
SE Louisiana 7.5 0.7 3.6 6.2 8.1 9.6 10.0 10.5 11.1 11.2 10.9 10.3 7.9
Nicholls St. 7.0 1.3 5.3 8.0 9.5 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 9.8 9.3 8.9 6.7
Northwestern St. 7.3 0.7 4.2 7.4 8.4 9.7 10.1 10.7 10.8 10.6 10.0 9.6 7.8
Houston Christian 7.8 0.5 2.8 5.3 6.9 8.4 9.4 10.3 10.9 11.5 12.2 11.8 9.9
East Texas A&M 9.2 0.2 1.2 2.5 3.7 4.9 6.1 7.3 9.1 10.3 12.9 16.4 25.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
McNeese St. 18 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.6 9.6 14.2 19.0 20.8 17.3 8.1
Stephen F. Austin 15 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.6 5.3 7.8 10.5 12.3 13.3 12.8 11.8 8.9 5.6 2.9 1.0 0.2
Incarnate Word 12 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.7 5.9 8.4 10.8 12.5 13.2 12.7 11.0 8.2 5.6 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 11 - 11 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.0 6.1 8.1 10.3 11.7 12.3 11.7 10.5 8.2 5.8 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.1 4.9 6.8 8.8 10.5 11.8 11.6 11.1 9.4 7.4 5.4 3.4 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lamar 10 - 12 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.6 5.7 8.1 10.2 11.5 12.4 11.7 10.4 8.5 6.2 4.1 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 10 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.1 6.6 9.6 12.0 13.6 13.4 11.8 9.8 6.8 4.6 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
SE Louisiana 9 - 13 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.7 4.9 7.9 10.5 12.4 12.9 12.7 11.3 8.9 6.1 4.1 2.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nicholls St. 10 - 12 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.0 4.0 6.7 9.0 11.1 12.5 12.4 11.5 9.5 7.4 5.3 3.6 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 10 - 12 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.5 4.7 7.0 9.9 11.6 13.2 12.5 11.2 9.2 6.8 4.7 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Houston Christian 9 - 13 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.3 6.2 8.7 11.7 12.9 12.8 12.3 10.3 7.7 5.3 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Texas A&M 7 - 15 0.2 1.0 2.5 5.5 8.2 10.7 12.5 12.7 11.9 11.3 8.1 6.1 4.3 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 77.5% 67.1 9.4 1.0 0.1 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 20.8% 13.6 6.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
Incarnate Word 2.7% 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 2.3% 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.5% 2.4 1.7 0.4 0.1
Lamar 1.5% 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
New Orleans 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
SE Louisiana 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Nicholls St. 1.3% 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Houston Christian 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
East Texas A&M 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 59.8% 59.7% 0.1% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 13.4 32.3 11.2 1.5 0.1 40.2 0.3%
Stephen F. Austin 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.0 5.6 2.0 0.1 82.9 0.0%
Incarnate Word 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.9 1.7 0.4 94.5 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 0.6 96.5 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.7 0.6 95.6 0.0%
Lamar 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.4 97.1 0.0%
New Orleans 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 98.4 0.0%
SE Louisiana 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 98.7 0.0%
Nicholls St. 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 98.4 0.0%
Northwestern St. 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 98.8 0.0%
Houston Christian 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 99.0 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 59.8% 0.1% 59.7% 13.2% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 17.1% 0.0% 17.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 5.5% 0.1% 5.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.5% 0.2% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.4% 0.2% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 2.9% 0.1% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 1.6% 0.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 1.3% 0.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 1.6% 0.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 1.2% 0.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 99.0% 1.0 1.0 99.0 0.0
2nd Round 15.3% 0.2 84.7 15.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6
Elite Eight 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0