Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
236 Southern 23.8%   16   1 - 9 0 - 0 13 - 15 12 - 6 -4.1      -3.0 253 -1.1 207 75.4 41 -7.4 277 0.0 1
248 Grambling St. 19.1%   4 - 7 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 6 -4.8      -3.8 274 -1.0 200 67.1 247 -3.2 218 0.0 1
274 Bethune-Cookman 14.5%   2 - 10 0 - 0 13 - 17 10 - 7 -6.1      -2.7 242 -3.4 292 71.1 134 -8.2 295 0.0 1
293 Alabama A&M 11.3%   4 - 6 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 7 -7.0      -5.0 304 -1.9 233 65.1 299 -3.6 224 0.0 1
294 Alabama St. 11.0%   2 - 10 0 - 0 13 - 17 10 - 7 -7.1      -1.8 218 -5.3 332 68.9 199 -8.1 292 0.0 1
320 Prairie View 5.4%   1 - 8 0 - 0 10 - 17 9 - 8 -9.6      -5.2 308 -4.4 317 78.8 17 -11.5 331 0.0 1
325 Texas Southern 4.3%   0 - 9 0 - 0 9 - 18 8 - 9 -9.9      -5.8 325 -4.1 307 73.2 76 -14.7 345 0.0 1
334 Jackson St. 3.9%   1 - 12 0 - 0 10 - 21 9 - 9 -10.6      -6.5 334 -4.1 308 73.6 70 -11.2 328 0.0 1
339 Alcorn St. 2.9%   1 - 11 0 - 0 9 - 21 8 - 10 -11.3      -6.8 339 -4.5 320 74.5 58 -7.7 286 0.0 1
343 Florida A&M 2.2%   1 - 8 0 - 0 8 - 19 7 - 10 -11.8      -7.5 344 -4.3 312 72.1 110 -12.2 334 0.0 1
351 Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.7%   1 - 10 0 - 0 8 - 21 7 - 10 -12.7      -7.8 346 -4.9 325 79.8 12 -6.3 258 0.0 1
365 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   0 - 13 0 - 0 2 - 29 2 - 15 -23.0      -13.8 365 -9.2 364 68.7 206 -18.8 358 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sun, Dec 28 343 Florida A&M 65 125 Georgia Tech 89   
Mon, Dec 29 274 Bethune-Cookman 77 55 Oklahoma St. 103   
Mon, Dec 29 365 Mississippi Valley 69 46 Oklahoma 93   
Mon, Dec 29 9 Illinois 90 236 Southern 55   
Mon, Dec 29 339 Alcorn St. 43 61 Mississippi 79   
Mon, Dec 29 294 Alabama St. 56 72 Mississippi St. 94   
Mon, Dec 29 320 Prairie View 82 44 Texas A&M 111   
Mon, Dec 29 334 Jackson St. 64 48 TCU 115   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 3 339 Alcorn St. 74 334 Jackson St. 78 64%   
Sat, Jan 3 248 Grambling St. 79 320 Prairie View 71 77%   
Sat, Jan 3 236 Southern 82 325 Texas Southern 73 80%   
Sat, Jan 3 274 Bethune-Cookman 79 343 Florida A&M 71 80%   
Sat, Jan 3 293 Alabama A&M 75 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff 72 60%   
Sat, Jan 3 294 Alabama St. 79 365 Mississippi Valley 66 88%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Southern 3.0 38.2 18.3 12.0 8.8 6.9 5.4 3.9 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.0
Grambling St. 4.0 20.1 16.7 13.7 12.0 9.9 8.2 6.6 5.4 3.7 2.4 1.3 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 4.4 15.1 15.6 13.7 12.0 11.3 8.9 7.7 6.0 4.6 3.4 1.6 0.1
Alabama A&M 4.2 18.7 15.7 14.3 11.8 9.8 8.6 7.2 5.5 4.1 2.8 1.6 0.1
Alabama St. 4.6 13.3 14.7 14.5 12.3 10.6 9.9 8.0 6.7 4.8 3.4 1.8 0.2
Prairie View 6.0 6.1 8.0 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.7 10.9 10.5 9.6 7.8 5.0 0.5
Texas Southern 6.7 4.6 5.9 7.8 8.1 9.3 10.2 10.7 10.8 11.1 11.5 9.3 0.8
Jackson St. 5.9 6.1 9.1 9.4 10.5 10.9 10.5 10.2 9.9 9.4 7.2 6.2 0.6
Alcorn St. 6.6 4.2 6.3 7.3 9.1 9.9 10.5 10.6 10.9 11.3 10.2 8.8 1.1
Florida A&M 8.0 1.5 3.0 4.0 5.1 7.1 7.9 9.5 11.5 13.6 16.6 17.9 2.4
Arkansas Pine Bluff 8.0 1.3 2.6 3.7 5.4 6.5 7.7 9.9 12.1 14.5 16.3 17.9 2.3
Mississippi Valley 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 3.1 12.4 82.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Southern 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.5 4.9 8.0 10.5 13.1 14.6 15.2 13.1 8.9 4.9 1.8 0.4
Grambling St. 11 - 7 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 5.5 8.3 12.2 14.6 15.3 14.1 11.5 7.8 4.0 1.4 0.3
Bethune-Cookman 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.8 6.4 9.9 13.8 15.2 15.5 12.9 10.3 5.9 2.9 0.8 0.2
Alabama A&M 11 - 7 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.5 5.6 8.9 13.0 14.2 15.5 13.8 10.7 6.8 3.8 1.5 0.6 0.1
Alabama St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.6 7.2 10.6 13.8 15.7 15.2 13.9 9.0 5.2 2.2 0.7 0.1
Prairie View 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.4 5.1 8.3 12.2 15.0 15.4 14.0 11.2 7.5 4.7 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
Texas Southern 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 4.3 7.0 11.6 13.6 14.7 14.3 11.2 9.1 5.6 3.4 1.2 0.6 0.1
Jackson St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.6 5.1 8.4 11.6 14.2 15.1 14.3 10.8 8.1 4.8 2.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Alcorn St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.9 4.0 7.3 10.6 13.7 14.8 14.7 12.0 8.9 5.8 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
Florida A&M 7 - 11 0.1 0.8 2.5 5.2 8.1 12.0 14.8 15.1 13.6 11.2 8.0 4.3 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.9 8.4 12.3 15.4 16.0 14.5 10.4 7.5 4.5 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Mississippi Valley 2 - 16 18.5 28.4 24.9 15.0 7.9 3.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Southern 38.2% 26.6 8.8 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Grambling St. 20.1% 12.0 5.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 15.1% 8.7 4.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Alabama A&M 18.7% 11.0 5.2 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Alabama St. 13.3% 7.3 3.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Prairie View 6.1% 2.9 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1
Texas Southern 4.6% 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Jackson St. 6.1% 2.9 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.1
Alcorn St. 4.2% 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Florida A&M 1.5% 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.3% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Mississippi Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Southern 23.8% 23.8% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.2 1.0 4.0 18.5 76.3 0.0%
Grambling St. 19.1% 19.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 1.0 4.3 13.5 80.9 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 1.1 13.2 85.5 0.0%
Alabama A&M 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 9.8 88.7 0.0%
Alabama St. 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 10.4 89.0 0.0%
Prairie View 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 5.3 94.6 0.0%
Texas Southern 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.1 4.3 95.7 0.0%
Jackson St. 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.1 3.8 96.2 0.0%
Alcorn St. 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 2.8 97.1 0.0%
Florida A&M 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 2.2 97.8 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.6 98.3 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Southern 23.8% 12.6% 18.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 19.1% 8.2% 15.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 14.5% 10.6% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 11.3% 6.9% 7.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 11.0% 8.5% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 5.4% 4.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 4.3% 4.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 3.9% 3.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 2.9% 2.8% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 2.2% 2.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.7% 1.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 68.1% 0.7 31.9 68.1
2nd Round 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0