Preseason Rankings
Southwestern Athletic
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
186 Southern 26.0%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 13 - 6 -1.9      -3.1 265 +1.2 127 70.5 109 0.0 1 0.0 1
238 Jackson St. 17.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 12 - 6 -4.3      -2.3 241 -2.0 240 70.3 115 0.0 1 0.0 1
246 Bethune-Cookman 15.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 11 - 6 -4.6      -2.8 253 -1.8 232 71.4 87 0.0 1 0.0 1
283 Grambling St. 8.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 7 -6.9      -5.6 326 -1.4 213 61.7 336 0.0 1 0.0 1
285 Texas Southern 9.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 10 - 7 -7.0      -5.3 322 -1.7 224 73.2 54 0.0 1 0.0 1
292 Alabama St. 8.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 10 - 7 -7.3      -4.4 296 -2.9 274 68.9 151 0.0 1 0.0 1
325 Alabama A&M 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 9 -9.7      -4.9 312 -4.7 319 75.7 22 0.0 1 0.0 1
326 Alcorn St. 4.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 20 10 - 9 -9.7      -5.8 329 -3.9 300 63.1 313 0.0 1 0.0 1
332 Florida A&M 3.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 16 7 - 9 -10.3      -5.4 323 -4.9 322 67.6 190 0.0 1 0.0 1
341 Prairie View 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 16 7 - 8 -11.5      -5.9 333 -5.5 336 74.3 46 0.0 1 0.0 1
364 Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 26 3 - 14 -22.7      -10.9 363 -11.8 365 77.4 14 0.0 1 0.0 1
365 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 29 2 - 15 -25.2      -14.8 365 -10.3 364 63.3 306 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Southern 2.7 41.2 18.9 11.6 8.0 6.1 4.4 3.2 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
Jackson St. 3.1 27.8 22.6 15.2 11.1 7.8 5.8 4.2 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 4.4 13.8 15.4 14.6 13.7 11.2 9.5 7.7 5.9 4.5 2.9 0.6 0.1
Grambling St. 5.9 4.2 7.6 9.9 11.1 11.8 12.2 12.8 11.4 9.8 7.3 1.6 0.2
Texas Southern 5.1 7.9 11.2 12.4 13.0 12.5 11.6 10.2 9.0 6.5 4.5 1.2 0.1
Alabama St. 4.8 9.1 12.7 13.8 13.9 12.4 11.3 9.6 7.4 5.4 3.4 0.9 0.2
Alabama A&M 5.7 6.0 8.3 10.1 11.5 11.8 12.2 11.5 10.7 8.9 6.4 2.2 0.5
Alcorn St. 5.3 9.0 10.5 10.8 11.5 11.3 11.4 10.7 9.1 7.7 5.4 2.0 0.4
Florida A&M 7.4 1.6 3.3 4.8 6.3 7.9 9.9 12.0 14.0 16.1 16.1 6.4 1.6
Prairie View 7.8 0.5 1.6 2.9 4.7 6.9 9.5 12.4 16.7 19.9 18.1 5.7 1.2
Arkansas Pine Bluff 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 3.2 6.7 14.9 43.5 28.6
Mississippi Valley 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 3.7 10.2 33.4 50.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Southern 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.1 3.4 4.8 6.5 8.8 10.4 12.1 12.6 12.1 10.9 7.9 4.9
Jackson St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.5 4.2 6.5 8.9 11.5 12.9 13.7 12.9 10.9 7.7 4.3 1.5
Bethune-Cookman 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.0 5.9 8.0 10.3 12.5 12.8 12.5 11.4 8.8 5.6 2.9 0.9
Grambling St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.5 6.1 8.7 10.7 12.8 13.4 12.4 11.0 8.2 5.8 3.3 1.4 0.4
Texas Southern 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.9 5.8 8.8 10.9 12.6 12.9 12.7 10.8 8.2 5.5 3.2 1.3 0.3
Alabama St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.0 7.5 10.0 11.9 13.3 13.2 11.4 10.0 6.5 3.7 1.8 0.5
Alabama A&M 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.2 5.2 8.4 10.3 11.9 13.0 12.2 10.8 8.7 6.1 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.1
Alcorn St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 4.7 6.8 9.2 11.1 12.1 11.9 10.8 9.3 7.4 5.4 3.7 1.9 1.0 0.3
Florida A&M 7 - 11 0.2 1.3 3.1 5.6 8.8 10.9 13.1 13.1 12.2 10.6 8.3 5.7 3.7 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.1
Prairie View 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 2.2 5.5 9.7 13.8 15.9 15.0 13.1 9.9 6.9 4.0 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 3 - 15 8.4 18.3 23.1 19.3 13.0 8.2 5.0 2.4 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 2 - 16 18.9 26.6 22.8 15.1 8.7 4.2 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Southern 41.2% 31.1 8.1 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Jackson St. 27.8% 18.8 7.0 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 13.8% 8.2 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Grambling St. 4.2% 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas Southern 7.9% 4.4 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.1
Alabama St. 9.1% 5.0 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Alabama A&M 6.0% 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Alcorn St. 9.0% 5.5 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida A&M 1.6% 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Prairie View 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0% 0.0
Mississippi Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Southern 27.2% 27.2% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.9 6.4 7.6 8.9 72.8 0.0%
Jackson St. 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.9 5.0 9.2 83.0 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.5 4.7 7.5 84.7 0.0%
Grambling St. 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.3 5.4 91.9 0.0%
Texas Southern 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.4 6.4 90.7 0.0%
Alabama St. 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 5.9 91.8 0.0%
Alabama A&M 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 3.7 95.6 0.0%
Alcorn St. 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 4.0 95.4 0.0%
Florida A&M 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.8 96.5 0.0%
Prairie View 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 97.6 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Southern 27.2% 5.2% 26.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 17.0% 5.9% 16.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 15.3% 4.7% 14.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 8.1% 3.5% 7.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 9.3% 4.4% 8.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 8.2% 4.1% 7.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 4.4% 2.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 4.6% 3.1% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 3.5% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 2.4% 1.6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 84.9% 0.9 15.1 77.5 7.4
2nd Round 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0