West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Gonzaga 99.9%   2   10 - 1 0 - 0 29 - 2 17 - 1 +21.7      +11.8 6 +9.9 9 74.3 58 +26.4 5 0.0 1
39 St. Mary's 38.8%   8 - 2 0 - 0 23 - 7 14 - 4 +12.1      +4.6 70 +7.4 18 65.3 290 +13.0 40 0.0 1
74 Santa Clara 8.9%   7 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 10 11 - 7 +7.8      +5.3 63 +2.5 95 71.4 134 +9.9 62 0.0 1
95 San Francisco 1.9%   5 - 5 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 8 +5.5      +3.0 105 +2.5 97 66.2 271 +3.6 115 0.0 1
118 Seattle 0.9%   6 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 12 9 - 9 +3.2      +0.4 158 +2.8 85 67.1 247 +2.9 132 0.0 1
128 Pacific 0.5%   6 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +2.1      +0.5 153 +1.6 119 65.9 280 +3.4 124 0.0 1
134 Loyola Marymount 0.4%   6 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +1.7      -2.0 225 +3.7 70 67.7 226 +3.1 127 0.0 1
155 Washington St. 0.2%   2 - 8 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 10 +0.2      +1.1 136 -0.8 195 69.9 173 -6.0 254 0.0 1
159 Oregon St. 0.2%   6 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 17 8 - 10 +0.2      0.0 170 +0.2 162 63.3 329 -1.5 191 0.0 1
243 Portland 0.0%   5 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 19 5 - 13 -4.7      -2.9 244 -1.8 232 73.0 80 -1.6 194 0.0 1
248 San Diego 0.0%   3 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 21 5 - 13 -4.9      -1.3 201 -3.6 292 74.8 51 -7.5 275 0.0 1
292 Pepperdine 0.0%   2 - 7 0 - 0 7 - 22 4 - 14 -7.2      -6.1 331 -1.2 213 66.7 259 -10.1 313 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 13 5 Gonzaga 82 30 UCLA 72   
Sat, Dec 13 61 Arizona St. 82 74 Santa Clara 79   
Sat, Dec 13 43 Saint Louis 85 95 San Francisco 75   
Sat, Dec 13 174 Montana St. 57 159 Oregon St. 67   
Sat, Dec 13 270 Northern Arizona 69 248 San Diego 78   
Sat, Dec 13 311 Cal St. Bakersfield 62 292 Pepperdine 70   
Sun, Dec 14 47 Boise St. 68 39 St. Mary's 67   
Sun, Dec 14 37 USC 68 155 Washington St. 61   
Sun, Dec 14 131 Kent St. 78 243 Portland 88   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Dec 16 134 Loyola Marymount 71 89 UC San Diego 73 55%   
Tue, Dec 16 9 BYU 82 128 Pacific 62 96%   
Wed, Dec 17 159 Oregon St. 74 125 Sam Houston St. 73 53%   
Wed, Dec 17 145 North Texas 65 74 Santa Clara 72 75%   
Wed, Dec 17 118 Seattle 71 198 UC Davis 68 60%   
Wed, Dec 17 241 Eastern Washington 77 155 Washington St. 82 68%   
Wed, Dec 17 66 Oregon 84 243 Portland 68 92%   
Wed, Dec 17 287 Loyola Chicago 64 95 San Francisco 79 92%   
Wed, Dec 17 228 Campbell 65 5 Gonzaga 94 99%   
Thu, Dec 18 277 Long Beach St. 71 292 Pepperdine 67 65%   
Fri, Dec 19 118 Seattle 70 50 Washington 75 68%   
Fri, Dec 19 39 St. Mary's 79 117 Florida Atlantic 67 86%   
Fri, Dec 19 134 Loyola Marymount 72 195 North Alabama 65 75%   
Fri, Dec 19 248 San Diego 73 89 UC San Diego 87 90%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Gonzaga 1.1 93.5 5.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. Mary's 2.5 11.1 56.0 18.8 7.8 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Santa Clara 3.9 2.2 21.0 27.2 18.6 12.6 8.0 5.2 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
San Francisco 5.0 0.6 10.0 17.4 18.1 16.3 13.1 9.9 7.2 4.2 2.2 0.9 0.2
Seattle 5.7 0.3 5.7 12.5 15.9 15.6 14.4 12.4 9.8 6.8 4.1 1.9 0.6
Pacific 5.6 0.3 7.0 14.2 15.9 15.1 13.8 11.6 9.0 6.1 4.0 2.2 0.7
Loyola Marymount 6.3 0.2 4.4 10.4 12.6 13.4 13.7 12.8 12.1 9.3 6.4 3.5 1.2
Washington St. 7.2 0.1 1.6 4.6 7.9 10.6 13.2 14.9 14.9 13.2 10.1 6.1 2.6
Oregon St. 7.2 0.1 1.8 5.4 7.8 10.4 12.4 14.2 14.5 13.7 10.9 6.5 2.4
Portland 9.6 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.3 6.7 10.5 15.4 20.2 21.8 17.1
San Diego 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.0 4.8 7.5 10.9 15.3 18.9 20.9 16.2
Pepperdine 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.0 5.5 9.5 15.9 25.3 37.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 17 - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 7.2 18.5 34.7 36.6
St. Mary's 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.0 8.0 13.3 18.0 20.6 18.0 11.0 3.7 0.6
Santa Clara 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.8 10.0 14.2 16.6 16.7 14.5 9.9 4.9 1.8 0.3 0.0
San Francisco 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 4.3 7.6 11.7 14.8 16.6 15.5 11.9 8.0 4.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Seattle 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.8 7.1 10.9 13.9 15.6 15.5 13.1 9.1 5.3 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
Pacific 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.7 6.6 10.2 13.0 14.5 15.8 12.8 9.9 5.9 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Loyola Marymount 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.5 5.9 9.5 12.6 14.6 14.5 13.4 10.3 6.9 3.8 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Washington St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.8 5.9 9.9 13.5 15.6 15.9 13.8 9.8 6.3 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Oregon St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.2 6.1 10.0 13.7 15.2 15.5 13.1 9.8 6.0 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Portland 5 - 13 0.7 3.4 8.2 13.7 17.0 17.7 15.0 11.0 6.9 3.7 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
San Diego 5 - 13 0.7 3.3 7.9 13.1 15.7 16.9 15.1 11.5 7.8 4.4 2.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pepperdine 4 - 14 3.2 9.5 16.5 19.5 18.3 14.1 9.3 5.2 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 93.5% 85.8 7.3 0.3 0.0
St. Mary's 11.1% 5.1 5.7 0.3 0.0
Santa Clara 2.2% 0.7 1.2 0.2 0.0
San Francisco 0.6% 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Seattle 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pacific 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Loyola Marymount 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oregon St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Portland
San Diego 0.0% 0.0
Pepperdine


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 99.9% 78.8% 21.2% 2   24.1 25.8 19.4 14.8 8.2 4.4 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.7%
St. Mary's 38.8% 13.7% 25.1% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.9 3.1 5.1 10.1 15.1 0.8 0.0 61.2 29.1%
Santa Clara 8.9% 3.8% 5.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.1 5.1 0.5 0.0 91.1 5.3%
San Francisco 1.9% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.1 0.3%
Seattle 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.1 0.1%
Pacific 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.5 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.0%
Washington St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 95.4% 71.5% 43.9% 24.5% 13.1% 6.8%
St. Mary's 38.8% 12.2% 33.3% 16.5% 4.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Santa Clara 8.9% 3.3% 7.2% 2.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 1.9% 0.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 51.3 45.6 3.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.4 57.6 40.4 2.0 0.0
2nd Round 96.7% 1.2 3.3 78.4 18.1 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 73.3% 0.8 26.7 69.9 3.4 0.0
Elite Eight 45.2% 0.5 54.8 44.6 0.6
Final Four 25.0% 0.3 75.0 24.9 0.1
Final Game 13.2% 0.1 86.8 13.2
Champion 6.8% 0.1 93.2 6.8