IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
BYU
Big 12
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+18.5	#9
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.4	#176
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+12.4	#4

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+6.1	#35

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	2.5%	3.1%	1.1%
#1 Seed	11.2%	13.9%	4.7%
Top 2 Seed	24.6%	29.4%	13.0%
Top 4 Seed	49.3%	56.3%	32.7%
Top 6 Seed	67.5%	74.5%	50.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid	88.8%	92.6%	79.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	87.3%	91.4%	78.1%
Average Seed	4.5	4.2	5.5

.500 or above	96.6%	98.4%	92.4%
.500 or above in Conference	87.8%	90.7%	80.9%
Conference Champion	15.2%	17.7%	9.4%
Last Place in Conference	0.4%	0.2%	0.8%

First Four	2.7%	1.9%	4.5%
First Round	87.6%	91.7%	77.9%
Second Round	72.7%	78.1%	59.6%
Sweet Sixteen	43.8%	49.2%	31.0%
Elite Eight	23.3%	26.6%	15.4%
Final Four	11.8%	13.7%	7.2%
Championship Game	5.8%	6.9%	3.4%
National Champion	2.7%	3.2%	1.5%

Next Game: Villanova (Neutral) - 70.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	4 - 6	4 - 6
Quad 1b	4 - 2	8 - 7
Quad 2	6 - 1	14 - 9
Quad 3	4 - 0	18 - 9
Quad 4	6 - 0	24 - 9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	39	Villanova	W	73-67	71%
Nov 08, 2025	346	Holy Cross	W	90-57	100.0%
Nov 11, 2025	236	Delaware	W	92-66	99%
Nov 14, 2025	4	Connecticut	L	70-74	37%
Nov 21, 2025	26	Wisconsin	W	77-74	61%
Nov 27, 2025	55	Miami (FL)	W	81-72	77%
Nov 28, 2025	65	Dayton	W	77-68	79%
Dec 03, 2025	174	California Baptist	W	82-62	96%
Dec 08, 2025	42	Clemson	W	73-67	70%
Dec 13, 2025	256	UC Riverside	W	87-60	99%
Dec 16, 2025	219	Pacific	W	86-61	99%
Dec 19, 2025	166	Abilene Christian	W	85-63	97%
Dec 22, 2025	259	Eastern Washington	W	88-61	99%
Jan 03, 2026	57	@ Kansas St.	W	76-70	69%
Jan 07, 2026	69	Arizona St.	W	82-69	87%
Jan 10, 2026	89	@ Utah	W	81-71	79%
Jan 14, 2026	56	TCU	W	78-66	84%
Jan 17, 2026	12	@ Texas Tech	L	73-75	41%
Jan 24, 2026	89	Utah	W	84-68	90%
Jan 26, 2026	11	Arizona	W	80-77	61%
Jan 31, 2026	14	@ Kansas	L	74-76	43%
Feb 04, 2026	73	@ Oklahoma St.	W	83-75	74%
Feb 07, 2026	1	Houston	L	65-68	40%
Feb 10, 2026	24	@ Baylor	W	73-72	51%
Feb 14, 2026	84	Colorado	W	81-66	89%
Feb 18, 2026	11	@ Arizona	L	77-80	41%
Feb 21, 2026	20	Iowa St.	W	77-72	66%
Feb 24, 2026	74	Central Florida	W	87-73	87%
Feb 28, 2026	58	@ West Virginia	W	73-67	69%
Mar 03, 2026	45	@ Cincinnati	W	73-69	62%
Mar 07, 2026	12	Texas Tech	W	76-72	62%
Projected Record						23 - 8	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big 12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	1.8	4.1	4.9	3.2	0.9		15.2	1st
2nd												0.0	0.4	3.3	6.1	4.7	1.5	0.1			16.1	2nd
3rd												0.5	3.3	6.3	3.7	0.6	0.0				14.3	3rd
4th											0.3	2.4	5.5	3.4	0.5	0.0					12.1	4th
5th										0.1	1.5	4.7	3.0	0.5							9.8	5th
6th									0.0	0.9	3.7	2.9	0.6	0.0							8.1	6th
7th									0.3	2.3	3.3	0.8	0.0								6.7	7th
8th								0.1	1.1	2.8	1.1	0.1									5.1	8th
9th							0.0	0.4	2.0	1.4	0.1										3.9	9th
10th							0.2	1.2	1.2	0.2	0.0										2.8	10th
11th						0.0	0.6	1.1	0.3	0.0											2.1	11th
12th						0.2	0.7	0.5													1.4	12th
13th					0.1	0.5	0.4	0.0													1.0	13th
14th				0.0	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.0													0.7	14th
15th			0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0														0.4	15th
16th		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0																0.1	16th

Total		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.1	1.9	3.3	5.0	7.8	10.0	11.4	12.8	13.7	12.1	9.4	6.5	3.3	0.9			Total

Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.9		0.9
17-1	97.4%	3.2		2.7	0.5
16-2	76.3%	4.9		3.2	1.5	0.2
15-3	43.7%	4.1		1.6	2.0	0.5	0.1
14-4	14.9%	1.8		0.4	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
13-5	2.2%	0.3			0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.1%	0.0					0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	15.2%	15.2		8.7	4.8	1.3	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.9%		100.0%	50.7%	49.3%	1.2		0.7	0.1																	100.0%
17-1	3.3%		100.0%	39.3%	60.7%	1.3		2.3	0.9	0.1	0.0															100.0%
16-2	6.5%		100.0%	30.5%	69.5%	1.6		3.2	2.5	0.7	0.1	0.0														100.0%
15-3	9.4%		100.0%	24.3%	75.7%	2.1		2.9	3.8	2.1	0.6	0.1	0.0													100.0%
14-4	12.1%		99.9%	17.9%	82.0%	2.9		1.4	3.5	3.9	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1										0.0		99.9%
13-5	13.7%		100.0%	12.5%	87.5%	3.8		0.5	2.0	3.5	3.7	2.3	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0									100.0%
12-6	12.8%		99.7%	6.9%	92.9%	4.8		0.1	0.6	1.9	3.2	3.0	2.2	1.2	0.5	0.2	0.1							0.0		99.7%
11-7	11.4%		97.9%	4.6%	93.3%	6.0		0.0	0.1	0.6	1.4	2.3	2.5	2.1	1.1	0.7	0.3	0.0						0.2		97.8%
10-8	10.0%		93.1%	3.0%	90.1%	7.2			0.0	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.7	1.8	1.9	1.2	1.0	0.2	0.0					0.7		92.9%
9-9	7.8%		78.6%	1.5%	77.2%	8.2				0.0	0.0	0.3	0.6	1.0	1.3	1.2	1.1	0.5	0.0					1.7		78.3%
8-10	5.0%		52.4%	1.6%	50.8%	9.2					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.6	0.8	0.4	0.0					2.4		51.6%
7-11	3.3%		26.9%	0.4%	26.5%	10.0							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.0					2.4		26.6%
6-12	1.9%		5.9%		5.9%	10.7										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0					1.8		5.9%
5-13	1.1%		1.8%	0.6%	1.2%	10.3										0.0		0.0						1.1		1.2%
4-14	0.5%																							0.5
3-15	0.2%																							0.2
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		88.8%	11.8%	77.0%	4.5		11.2	13.4	13.0	11.8	9.8	8.4	6.7	5.4	4.1	3.5	1.5	0.1					11.2		87.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	1.1	93.6	6.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	1.2	75.1	24.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	1.0	100.0