IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+7.3	#75
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	73.0	#58
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.5	#81

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.8	#75

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.7%	0.8%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	2.4%	2.5%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	15.5%	15.9%	3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	14.8%	15.2%	3.3%
Average Seed	8.6	8.6	9.5

.500 or above	54.4%	55.5%	21.5%
.500 or above in Conference	35.9%	36.6%	16.7%
Conference Champion	0.9%	0.9%	0.2%
Last Place in Conference	11.0%	10.6%	20.6%

First Four	4.1%	4.2%	1.3%
First Round	13.4%	13.8%	2.7%
Second Round	6.7%	6.9%	0.7%
Sweet Sixteen	1.7%	1.7%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.6%	0.6%	0.0%
Final Four	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Home) - 96.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 5	1 - 5
Quad 1b	1 - 4	2 - 9
Quad 2	4 - 4	6 - 14
Quad 3	4 - 1	10 - 15
Quad 4	7 - 0	16 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2025	323	Alcorn St.	W	79-59	97%
Nov 07, 2025	289	Alabama St.	W	82-64	95%
Nov 11, 2025	5	@ Florida	L	69-86	6%
Nov 18, 2025	325	Tennessee Martin	W	82-62	96%
Nov 21, 2025	243	Georgia Southern	W	84-69	91%
Nov 25, 2025	234	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	79-65	89%
Nov 28, 2025	36	Texas A&M	L	69-75	30%
Dec 02, 2025	52	Georgia	L	72-73	49%
Dec 06, 2025	1	Houston	L	57-74	7%
Dec 13, 2025	170	Massachusetts	W	80-72	77%
Dec 16, 2025	65	@ Dayton	L	69-74	35%
Dec 19, 2025	365	Mississippi Valley	W	86-51	99.9%
Dec 22, 2025	245	Jacksonville	W	79-64	89%
Dec 30, 2025	23	@ North Carolina	L	73-84	17%
Jan 03, 2026	3	Duke	L	67-79	15%
Jan 10, 2026	31	North Carolina St.	L	69-73	38%
Jan 13, 2026	64	@ Syracuse	L	73-78	34%
Jan 17, 2026	67	Wake Forest	W	73-71	56%
Jan 20, 2026	55	@ Miami (FL)	L	72-78	32%
Jan 24, 2026	46	@ SMU	L	72-80	26%
Jan 28, 2026	91	California	W	77-72	65%
Jan 31, 2026	99	Stanford	W	74-69	66%
Feb 07, 2026	63	@ Notre Dame	L	68-73	33%
Feb 10, 2026	44	Virginia	L	65-67	44%
Feb 14, 2026	76	@ Virginia Tech	L	70-73	40%
Feb 17, 2026	96	Boston College	W	76-71	65%
Feb 21, 2026	42	@ Clemson	L	65-73	25%
Feb 24, 2026	55	Miami (FL)	W	76-75	51%
Feb 28, 2026	79	@ Georgia Tech	L	73-76	42%
Mar 04, 2026	80	@ Pittsburgh	L	72-74	42%
Mar 07, 2026	46	SMU	L	75-77	45%
Projected Record						16 - 15	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st														0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.9	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0			2.2	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.1	0.8	1.1	0.7	0.1					2.8	3rd
4th											0.1	0.8	1.9	0.9	0.2						3.9	4th
5th										0.0	0.7	2.2	1.4	0.2							4.5	5th
6th										0.3	2.3	2.0	0.4								4.9	6th
7th									0.0	1.5	3.0	0.9	0.0								5.5	7th
8th									0.6	3.4	1.9	0.1	0.0								5.9	8th
9th								0.1	2.1	3.4	0.6										6.1	9th
10th							0.0	0.9	3.9	1.5	0.0										6.3	10th
11th							0.4	2.9	3.2	0.3											6.8	11th
12th						0.0	1.7	4.3	1.1	0.0											7.1	12th
13th					0.0	0.7	3.9	2.4	0.2												7.3	13th
14th				0.0	0.2	2.7	3.7	0.6	0.0												7.4	14th
15th			0.0	0.1	1.9	4.0	1.6	0.1													7.7	15th
16th			0.1	1.3	3.3	2.5	0.3	0.0													7.5	16th
17th		0.2	1.3	2.9	2.2	0.5	0.0														7.1	17th
18th	0.4	1.6	2.0	1.6	0.4	0.0															6.0	18th

Total	0.4	1.7	3.4	5.9	8.0	10.5	11.7	11.4	11.0	10.5	8.6	6.1	4.7	2.9	1.8	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0			Total

Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	93.8%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-2	80.4%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
15-3	32.6%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
14-4	9.5%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-5	2.0%	0.1				0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.0%
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.9%	0.9		0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		100.0%		100.0%	1.7		0.0	0.0																	100.0%
17-1	0.1%		100.0%	12.4%	87.6%	3.6		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0												100.0%
16-2	0.3%		100.0%	19.4%	80.6%	4.3		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0											100.0%
15-3	0.9%		98.4%	14.3%	84.1%	5.5		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0							0.0		98.2%
14-4	1.8%		96.1%	6.7%	89.3%	6.8				0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0						0.1		95.8%
13-5	2.9%		85.8%	4.9%	80.9%	8.0				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.1						0.4		85.1%
12-6	4.7%		69.9%	3.4%	66.5%	8.9					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.8	1.0	0.4	0.0					1.4		68.8%
11-7	6.1%		46.9%	0.8%	46.1%	9.6						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	1.1	0.6	0.0					3.3		46.5%
10-8	8.6%		25.4%	0.8%	24.6%	9.9						0.0		0.0	0.1	0.5	0.9	0.7						6.4		24.8%
9-9	10.5%		11.7%	0.3%	11.4%	10.2								0.0	0.1	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0					9.3		11.4%
8-10	11.0%		3.4%	0.1%	3.3%	10.6									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2						10.7		3.3%
7-11	11.4%		0.6%		0.6%	10.9											0.0	0.1						11.3		0.6%
6-12	11.7%		0.1%		0.1%	11.5											0.0			0.0				11.7		0.1%
5-13	10.5%																							10.5
4-14	8.0%		0.1%	0.1%		12.0													0.0					8.0
3-15	5.9%																							5.9
2-16	3.4%																							3.4
1-17	1.7%																							1.7
0-18	0.4%																							0.4

Total	100%		15.5%	0.8%	14.7%	8.6		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	1.0	1.5	2.1	2.9	4.0	2.6	0.0	0.0				84.5		14.8%