Preseason Rankings
SMU
Atlantic Coast
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#46
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.5#84
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#40
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#52
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 1.7% 1.8% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 7.1% 7.2% 2.0%
Top 6 Seed 15.6% 15.8% 5.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.2% 47.8% 21.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.9% 45.6% 20.5%
Average Seed 7.4 7.4 8.3
.500 or above 84.3% 85.0% 56.0%
.500 or above in Conference 64.6% 65.2% 43.9%
Conference Champion 4.0% 4.0% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 2.6% 9.1%
First Four6.2% 6.2% 5.4%
First Round44.0% 44.6% 19.6%
Second Round27.3% 27.8% 10.0%
Sweet Sixteen9.9% 10.1% 2.8%
Elite Eight4.0% 4.0% 0.6%
Final Four1.3% 1.3% 0.3%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Home) - 97.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 26 - 39 - 11
Quad 35 - 114 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 273   Tarleton St. W 79-58 98%    
  Nov 06, 2025 222   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 81-63 96%    
  Nov 11, 2025 129   Murray St. W 77-64 88%    
  Nov 15, 2025 66   Butler W 78-72 70%    
  Nov 18, 2025 364   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98-60 100.0%   
  Nov 21, 2025 137   Arkansas St. W 83-70 88%    
  Nov 24, 2025 148   Radford W 77-63 89%    
  Nov 28, 2025 32   @ Mississippi St. L 73-78 35%    
  Dec 03, 2025 41   @ Vanderbilt L 75-79 37%    
  Dec 07, 2025 36   Texas A&M L 72-73 45%    
  Dec 13, 2025 53   LSU W 76-74 55%    
  Dec 21, 2025 354   Central Arkansas W 87-59 99%    
  Dec 28, 2025 336   Cal St. Fullerton W 85-59 98%    
  Jan 03, 2026 23   North Carolina L 78-79 49%    
  Jan 07, 2026 42   @ Clemson L 68-71 38%    
  Jan 10, 2026 3   @ Duke L 66-79 13%    
  Jan 14, 2026 76   Virginia Tech W 76-68 74%    
  Jan 17, 2026 44   Virginia W 68-65 59%    
  Jan 20, 2026 67   @ Wake Forest W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 24, 2026 75   Florida St. W 80-72 74%    
  Jan 31, 2026 10   @ Louisville L 73-82 22%    
  Feb 03, 2026 31   North Carolina St. W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 07, 2026 80   @ Pittsburgh W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 10, 2026 63   Notre Dame W 74-68 68%    
  Feb 14, 2026 64   @ Syracuse L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 17, 2026 10   Louisville L 76-79 39%    
  Feb 21, 2026 96   Boston College W 78-68 79%    
  Feb 25, 2026 91   @ California W 76-73 61%    
  Feb 28, 2026 99   @ Stanford W 74-70 62%    
  Mar 04, 2026 55   Miami (FL) W 78-73 66%    
  Mar 07, 2026 75   @ Florida St. W 77-75 55%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.9 1.9 0.5 0.0 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.7 2.8 0.4 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.4 3.2 3.9 0.9 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 4.2 1.5 0.1 7.6 7th
8th 0.6 3.7 2.7 0.3 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 3.4 0.8 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 3.8 2.0 0.1 6.7 10th
11th 0.3 2.3 2.6 0.3 5.6 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 3.4 1.1 0.0 5.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.3 1.6 0.2 4.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.1 0.5 0.0 3.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.1 17th
18th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 18th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.1 6.7 8.9 10.3 11.6 12.0 11.4 10.1 8.2 5.6 3.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 92.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1
16-2 69.8% 1.2    0.8 0.4 0.0
15-3 39.7% 1.4    0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 11.4% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
13-5 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 55.3% 44.7% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 2.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.7% 100.0% 26.4% 73.6% 3.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.5% 99.8% 15.9% 83.9% 4.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-4 5.6% 98.9% 13.7% 85.1% 5.4 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.7%
13-5 8.2% 95.3% 9.9% 85.4% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.4 94.7%
12-6 10.1% 86.6% 5.9% 80.7% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.5 2.3 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 1.4 85.7%
11-7 11.4% 72.7% 3.7% 69.0% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.1 0.6 0.0 3.1 71.6%
10-8 12.0% 49.5% 1.6% 48.0% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.2 0.9 0.0 6.0 48.7%
9-9 11.6% 32.0% 0.6% 31.4% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.0 7.9 31.6%
8-10 10.3% 11.5% 0.1% 11.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 9.2 11.3%
7-11 8.9% 2.2% 0.2% 2.0% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.7 2.0%
6-12 6.7% 0.3% 0.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.3%
5-13 4.1% 4.1
4-14 2.8% 2.8
3-15 1.6% 1.6
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 47.2% 4.1% 43.1% 7.4 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.2 3.9 4.5 5.7 6.8 7.4 8.0 3.6 0.1 0.0 52.8 44.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 50.0 50.0