IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
South Alabama
Sun Belt
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.7	#167
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	60.3	#353
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.9	#227

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.2	#129

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	10.1%	13.7%	7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.3	12.9	13.5

.500 or above	66.8%	80.6%	55.8%
.500 or above in Conference	72.8%	80.4%	66.8%
Conference Champion	11.3%	15.2%	8.3%
Last Place in Conference	2.1%	1.3%	2.6%

First Four	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
First Round	10.1%	13.8%	7.3%
Second Round	1.0%	1.6%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Away) - 44.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 3
Quad 3	4 - 6	5 - 9
Quad 4	11 - 3	16 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	196	@ Toledo	L	69-70	44%
Nov 06, 2025	323	Alcorn St.	W	68-56	87%
Nov 13, 2025	299	Central Michigan	W	68-61	74%
Nov 14, 2025	361	Coppin St.	W	70-55	91%
Nov 19, 2025	154	@ Jacksonville St.	L	60-64	37%
Nov 21, 2025	103	@ UAB	L	64-73	22%
Dec 02, 2025	139	New Mexico St.	L	61-63	43%
Dec 05, 2025	156	@ East Tennessee St.	L	61-65	38%
Dec 14, 2025	88	North Texas	L	55-58	39%
Dec 17, 2025	347	@ Louisiana Monroe	W	69-61	76%
Dec 20, 2025	197	@ Texas St.	L	64-65	45%
Dec 31, 2025	233	@ Louisiana	W	64-63	50%
Jan 03, 2026	130	@ Troy	L	60-66	31%
Jan 10, 2026	243	Georgia Southern	W	71-64	71%
Jan 15, 2026	137	Arkansas St.	W	68-67	52%
Jan 17, 2026	233	Louisiana	W	67-61	70%
Jan 22, 2026	132	@ James Madison	L	61-67	32%
Jan 24, 2026	185	@ Marshall	L	65-67	43%
Jan 29, 2026	274	Coastal Carolina	W	66-58	76%
Jan 31, 2026	283	Georgia St.	W	72-63	78%
Feb 04, 2026	204	@ Appalachian St.	L	58-59	46%
Feb 12, 2026	276	@ Southern Miss	W	69-66	59%
Feb 14, 2026	137	@ Arkansas St.	L	65-70	34%
Feb 19, 2026	197	Texas St.	W	67-62	64%
Feb 21, 2026	130	Troy	W	63-62	50%
Feb 25, 2026	347	Louisiana Monroe	W	72-58	88%
Feb 27, 2026	276	Southern Miss	W	72-63	76%
Projected Record						15 - 12	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	1.1	2.7	3.5	2.5	1.2	0.3		11.3	1st
2nd												0.2	1.9	3.9	3.9	1.6	0.3	0.0			11.7	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.6	4.0	3.7	1.2	0.1					10.6	3rd
4th										0.0	1.1	4.6	4.0	1.0	0.1						10.7	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	3.6	4.5	1.1	0.0							10.0	5th
6th									0.3	2.6	4.6	1.5	0.1								9.1	6th
7th								0.1	1.7	4.0	2.0	0.2									7.9	7th
8th							0.0	0.9	3.3	2.6	0.3	0.0									7.2	8th
9th						0.0	0.4	2.6	2.6	0.6	0.0										6.1	9th
10th						0.3	1.5	2.6	0.8	0.1											5.2	10th
11th				0.0	0.2	1.0	2.1	0.9	0.1												4.2	11th
12th			0.0	0.1	0.8	1.4	0.8	0.1													3.3	12th
13th		0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.4	0.1														1.7	13th
14th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0															1.0	14th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.9	3.1	4.9	7.2	8.7	10.5	11.7	12.6	11.2	9.6	7.8	5.1	2.8	1.2	0.3			Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
17-1	99.4%	1.2		1.1	0.1
16-2	90.6%	2.5		2.0	0.5	0.0
15-3	67.2%	3.5		1.9	1.3	0.2	0.0
14-4	34.5%	2.7		0.9	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	11.3%	1.1		0.1	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.0
12-6	1.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	11.3%	11.3		6.4	3.7	1.0	0.3	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.3%		54.7%	54.7%		10.1					0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1
17-1	1.2%		49.4%	49.4%		11.5										0.0	0.0	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0			0.6
16-2	2.8%		46.5%	46.5%		12.1											0.0	0.3	0.6	0.3	0.1			1.5
15-3	5.1%		33.3%	33.3%		12.7												0.0	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.0		3.4
14-4	7.8%		27.1%	27.1%		13.2												0.0	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.1	0.0	5.7
13-5	9.6%		18.5%	18.5%		13.6												0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.2	0.0	7.8
12-6	11.2%		10.8%	10.8%		14.2													0.1	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.1	10.0
11-7	12.6%		5.6%	5.6%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	11.9
10-8	11.7%		3.2%	3.2%		15.4													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	11.3
9-9	10.5%		1.0%	1.0%		16.7														0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	10.4
8-10	8.7%		0.5%	0.5%		20.6															0.0	0.0	0.0	8.7
7-11	7.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.2
6-12	4.9%																							4.9
5-13	3.1%																							3.1
4-14	1.9%																							1.9
3-15	0.9%																							0.9
2-16	0.4%																							0.4
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		10.1%	10.1%	0.0%	13.3					0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.7	2.5	2.8	2.7	1.0	0.3	89.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	5.7				33.3		33.3	33.3