Ivy League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
113 Yale 31.5%   14   3 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 10 10 - 4 +3.8      +1.5 125 +2.4 100 69.3 179 +2.2 148 0.0 1
133 Harvard 23.7%   3 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 9 9 - 5 +2.4      +0.6 158 +1.8 107 70.8 139 +2.1 149 0.0 1
145 Princeton 24.3%   3 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 9 9 - 5 +1.6      +2.9 97 -1.3 221 64.6 289 +6.1 93 0.0 1
197 Penn 8.2%   3 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 7 -1.6      +0.1 169 -1.8 236 69.3 181 -1.1 196 0.0 1
218 Cornell 5.2%   4 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 12 6 - 8 -2.6      -0.6 192 -2.0 244 82.8 3 +8.1 75 0.0 1
228 Brown 3.3%   2 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 16 6 - 8 -3.2      -4.2 291 +1.0 136 67.4 230 -5.5 250 0.0 1
243 Dartmouth 3.8%   1 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 15 6 - 8 -4.1      -3.9 283 -0.3 181 69.3 182 +5.3 104 0.0 1
323 Columbia 0.1%   1 - 4 0 - 0 7 - 19 3 - 11 -9.8      -3.2 273 -6.6 338 69.3 180 -13.1 331 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Yale 2.2 44.1 23.4 14.1 8.7 5.3 3.0 1.1 0.3
Harvard 2.7 29.8 24.8 17.8 11.7 8.5 4.3 2.1 1.0
Princeton 3.0 24.4 23.3 17.7 14.5 9.9 6.5 2.9 0.8
Penn 4.2 9.1 14.0 16.0 17.7 16.1 13.4 9.7 4.1
Cornell 4.7 6.7 10.1 13.3 15.1 16.8 16.7 14.8 6.5
Brown 4.8 4.8 8.8 12.7 15.6 18.2 17.2 15.8 7.1
Dartmouth 5.2 4.7 7.0 11.2 12.4 15.8 17.5 19.4 12.0
Columbia 7.0 0.3 0.6 1.6 4.1 6.4 12.3 23.6 51.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Yale 10 - 4 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.1 4.2 8.0 11.9 14.5 17.6 18.2 13.3 6.8 2.4
Harvard 9 - 5 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.9 3.6 6.9 10.9 14.8 16.2 17.2 13.7 8.4 4.4 1.0
Princeton 9 - 5 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.6 4.8 9.0 13.4 15.1 16.5 15.0 11.0 6.9 3.2 1.1
Penn 7 - 7 0.0 0.5 1.7 4.5 7.5 11.0 15.3 16.3 15.5 13.1 7.7 4.6 1.7 0.6 0.1
Cornell 6 - 8 0.2 0.8 3.3 6.5 11.4 14.0 16.0 15.0 12.6 9.7 5.7 3.5 1.3 0.2 0.1
Brown 6 - 8 0.2 1.1 4.2 6.9 11.3 15.2 16.2 16.0 11.9 8.9 5.3 2.0 0.8 0.1
Dartmouth 6 - 8 0.8 2.7 6.7 10.3 12.4 15.5 14.0 13.6 9.7 7.0 4.2 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.1
Columbia 3 - 11 7.7 15.7 20.1 19.2 15.0 10.1 6.8 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Yale 44.1% 31.4 10.0 2.5 0.3 0.1
Harvard 29.8% 19.4 7.8 2.3 0.3 0.0
Princeton 24.4% 15.9 6.6 1.7 0.1 0.1
Penn 9.1% 4.8 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
Cornell 6.7% 3.7 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0
Brown 4.8% 2.3 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.0
Dartmouth 4.7% 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.1
Columbia 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Yale 31.5% 31.4% 0.1% 14   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 4.9 10.6 10.0 4.3 0.2 68.5 0.2%
Harvard 23.7% 23.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 2.2 7.9 8.2 4.3 0.4 76.3 0.0%
Princeton 24.3% 24.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 2.3 7.4 8.3 5.6 0.3 75.7 0.1%
Penn 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.9 1.9 91.8 0.0%
Cornell 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 1.6 0.2 94.8 0.0%
Brown 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 1.3 96.7 0.0%
Dartmouth 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.5 96.2 0.0%
Columbia 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Yale 31.5% 0.1% 31.5% 4.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Harvard 23.7% 0.0% 23.7% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Princeton 24.3% 0.1% 24.2% 3.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn 8.2% 0.7% 8.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 5.2% 0.0% 5.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brown 3.3% 0.4% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dartmouth 3.8% 0.3% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 99.5% 1.0 0.5 99.5 0.1
2nd Round 12.5% 0.1 87.5 12.5
Sweet Sixteen 3.1% 0.0 96.9 3.1
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0