Ivy League
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
65 Yale 62.6%   13   5 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 5 12 - 2 +8.2      +0.3 166 +7.9 26 65.2 269 +10.3 60 0.0 1
145 Princeton 12.8%   4 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 9 9 - 5 +1.6      +1.1 143 +0.6 163 67.5 217 +0.8 162 0.0 1
153 Harvard 9.8%   5 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 10 8 - 6 +0.9      -1.2 207 +2.2 113 68.0 206 +2.2 140 0.0 1
159 Penn 8.3%   5 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 12 8 - 6 +0.6      +2.9 92 -2.4 245 69.0 175 +1.6 154 0.0 1
181 Cornell 7.2%   3 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 11 8 - 6 -0.6      +2.0 111 -2.6 254 78.2 24 +1.6 153 0.0 1
275 Brown 0.9%   3 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 17 5 - 9 -5.7      -6.0 334 +0.3 173 71.3 114 -6.9 281 0.0 1
318 Dartmouth 0.1%   1 - 5 0 - 0 7 - 20 4 - 10 -9.7      -6.1 335 -3.6 279 71.1 118 -12.1 325 0.0 1
348 Columbia 0.0%   1 - 7 0 - 0 5 - 22 2 - 12 -13.2      -6.2 336 -7.0 338 73.0 81 -17.6 353 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Yale 1.5 71.3 17.4 6.8 3.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Princeton 3.0 15.9 26.6 21.7 17.4 11.8 5.1 1.3 0.2
Harvard 3.3 13.0 23.1 22.6 18.9 13.8 6.6 1.7 0.3
Penn 3.4 10.4 21.7 23.4 20.8 14.9 6.7 1.7 0.2
Cornell 3.8 9.0 17.3 19.3 19.6 19.0 11.0 3.9 1.0
Brown 5.4 0.9 3.8 6.8 12.5 20.7 32.5 17.3 5.6
Dartmouth 6.6 0.1 0.7 1.7 4.1 9.7 22.6 39.8 21.3
Columbia 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.3 11.2 30.4 53.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Yale 12 - 2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.3 6.9 13.1 19.7 23.8 20.6 10.6
Princeton 9 - 5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.9 8.1 12.3 16.6 18.5 16.4 12.1 6.5 2.4 0.6
Harvard 8 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 5.4 9.3 14.1 17.5 18.0 15.4 10.2 4.8 1.7 0.3
Penn 8 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 5.3 10.0 15.6 18.8 18.8 14.4 8.6 4.1 1.0 0.1
Cornell 8 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.7 8.8 12.8 15.6 17.0 15.0 11.3 6.9 3.3 1.2 0.2
Brown 5 - 9 0.3 1.9 5.5 11.1 16.5 19.2 17.1 13.3 8.3 4.3 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Dartmouth 4 - 10 2.8 9.9 17.7 21.4 19.1 13.7 8.4 4.2 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Columbia 2 - 12 11.6 23.3 25.5 19.3 11.4 5.4 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Yale 71.3% 56.8 12.2 2.0 0.3 0.0
Princeton 15.9% 8.7 5.6 1.4 0.2 0.0
Harvard 13.0% 6.6 4.8 1.4 0.2 0.0
Penn 10.4% 5.2 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
Cornell 9.0% 4.6 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
Brown 0.9% 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Columbia 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Yale 62.6% 61.0% 1.5% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.1 2.1 8.0 19.7 19.1 8.8 1.4 0.1 37.4 4.0%
Princeton 12.8% 12.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.3 4.4 2.7 1.0 87.2 0.1%
Harvard 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.4 2.3 1.0 90.2 0.0%
Penn 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.8 2.5 1.3 91.7 0.0%
Cornell 7.2% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.1 1.8 1.3 92.8 0.0%
Brown 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.1 0.0%
Dartmouth 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Columbia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Yale 62.6% 0.9% 62.2% 16.7% 5.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Princeton 12.8% 0.4% 12.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Harvard 9.8% 0.5% 9.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn 8.3% 0.8% 7.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 7.2% 0.7% 6.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brown 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dartmouth 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.3 1.7 0.0
1st Round 98.7% 1.0 1.3 97.5 1.2
2nd Round 19.9% 0.2 80.1 19.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 5.8% 0.1 94.2 5.8 0.0
Elite Eight 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0