Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24

Last Updated: Jan 30, 2023
Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com

View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Purdue Auto 100.0% 22.5% 77.5% 100.0%
1  Alabama At-Large 100.0% 22.0% 78.0% 100.0%
1  Houston Auto 100.0% 65.1% 34.9% 100.0%
1  Tennessee Auto 100.0% 31.5% 68.5% 100.0%
2  Kansas Auto 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 100.0%
2  UCLA Auto 100.0% 37.5% 62.5% 100.0%
2  Texas At-Large 99.9% 14.6% 85.3% 99.9%
2  Arizona At-Large 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 100.0%
3  Baylor At-Large 99.8% 12.6% 87.2% 99.8%
3  Marquette At-Large 99.6% 19.9% 79.7% 99.4%
3  Iowa St. At-Large 98.7% 10.5% 88.3% 98.6%
3  Kansas St. At-Large 99.1% 8.2% 90.8% 99.0%
4  TCU At-Large 98.3% 12.1% 86.2% 98.0%
4  Gonzaga At-Large 99.6% 39.5% 60.1% 99.4%
4  Connecticut Auto 99.4% 24.2% 75.2% 99.2%
4  St. Mary's Auto 97.9% 40.7% 57.2% 96.4%
5  Xavier At-Large 99.8% 13.0% 86.8% 99.8%
5  Virginia Auto 98.7% 18.8% 79.9% 98.3%
5  Indiana At-Large 94.7% 11.5% 83.2% 94.0%
5  Creighton At-Large 88.4% 17.8% 70.6% 85.9%
6  San Diego St. Auto 95.1% 26.6% 68.5% 93.3%
6  Illinois At-Large 92.7% 10.5% 82.2% 91.8%
6  West Virginia At-Large 68.5% 9.4% 59.1% 65.2%
6  Providence At-Large 87.5% 9.9% 77.6% 86.1%
7  Rutgers At-Large 87.0% 9.0% 78.0% 85.7%
7  Auburn At-Large 88.4% 7.6% 80.8% 87.5%
7  North Carolina At-Large 87.7% 14.8% 72.9% 85.5%
7  Duke At-Large 90.8% 16.5% 74.3% 89.0%
8  Iowa At-Large 78.6% 7.1% 71.5% 77.0%
8  Michigan St. At-Large 72.5% 5.9% 66.6% 70.7%
8  Florida Atlantic Auto 86.5% 37.1% 49.3% 78.5%
8  Boise St. At-Large 87.9% 22.0% 65.9% 84.5%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Northwestern At-Large 69.2% 5.0% 64.3% 67.6%
9  Miami (FL) At-Large 82.5% 11.5% 71.0% 80.2%
9  Maryland At-Large 69.7% 6.7% 63.0% 67.5%
9  Arkansas At-Large 73.5% 9.8% 63.8% 70.7%
10  New Mexico At-Large 84.9% 14.3% 70.6% 82.3%
10  North Carolina St. At-Large 76.7% 9.4% 67.3% 74.3%
10  Kentucky At-Large 65.5% 6.9% 58.6% 63.0%
10  USC At-Large 68.5% 7.5% 60.9% 65.9%
11  Memphis At-Large 73.2% 12.9% 60.3% 69.2%
11  Missouri At-Large 71.1% 4.1% 66.9% 69.8%
11  Texas A&M At-Large 58.1% 5.3% 52.7% 55.7%
11  Utah St. At-Large 59.6% 13.2% 46.4% 53.4%
11  Nevada At-Large 51.9% 10.0% 41.8% 46.5%
11  Penn St. At-Large 49.5% 5.2% 44.3% 46.7%
12  College of Charleston Auto 54.2% 50.5% 3.6% 7.3%
12  Sam Houston St. Auto 37.0% 33.3% 3.8% 5.7%
12  Liberty Auto 69.5% 68.3% 1.2% 3.7%
12  Oral Roberts Auto 89.7% 89.2% 0.5% 4.3%
13  Kent St. Auto 48.1% 45.9% 2.2% 4.0%
13  Drake Auto 30.3% 29.8% 0.5% 0.7%
13  Marshall Auto 33.1% 32.7% 0.4% 0.7%
13  Dayton Auto 28.4% 27.8% 0.6% 0.8%
14  Iona Auto 58.7% 58.6% 0.1% 0.3%
14  UC Irvine Auto 29.6% 29.5% 0.1% 0.1%
14  Furman Auto 49.5% 49.5% 0.0% 0.0%
14  Yale Auto 35.8% 35.8% 0.0% 0.0%
15  Colgate Auto 68.1% 68.1%
15  Montana St. Auto 45.4% 45.4%
15  Youngstown St. Auto 38.1% 38.1%
15  Vermont Auto 43.9% 43.9%
16  Northwestern St. Auto 41.9% 41.9%
16  Radford Auto 25.8% 25.8%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 62.5% 62.5%
16  SIU Edwardsville Auto 41.0% 41.0%
16  Grambling St. Auto 39.4% 39.4%
16  Wagner Auto 46.1% 46.1%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Boise St. 87.9% 22.0% 65.9% 84.5%
New Mexico 84.9% 14.3% 70.6% 82.3%
Miami (FL) 82.5% 11.5% 71.0% 80.2%
Iowa 78.6% 7.1% 71.5% 77.0%
North Carolina St. 76.7% 9.4% 67.3% 74.3%
Michigan St. 72.5% 5.9% 66.6% 70.7%
Arkansas 73.5% 9.8% 63.8% 70.7%
Missouri 71.1% 4.1% 66.9% 69.8%
Memphis 73.2% 12.9% 60.3% 69.2%
Northwestern 69.2% 5.0% 64.3% 67.6%
Maryland 69.7% 6.7% 63.0% 67.5%
USC 68.5% 7.5% 60.9% 65.9%
West Virginia 68.5% 9.4% 59.1% 65.2%
Kentucky 65.5% 6.9% 58.6% 63.0%
Texas A&M 58.1% 5.3% 52.7% 55.7%
Utah St. 59.6% 13.2% 46.4% 53.4%
Penn St. 49.5% 5.2% 44.3% 46.7%
Nevada 51.9% 10.0% 41.8% 46.5%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Clemson 47.3% 6.1% 41.3% 43.9%
Ohio St. 41.1% 7.9% 33.1% 36.0%
Oklahoma St. 39.5% 5.8% 33.7% 35.8%
Oklahoma 38.6% 5.5% 33.1% 35.0%
Oregon 37.2% 7.0% 30.2% 32.4%
Virginia Tech 36.9% 7.7% 29.2% 31.6%
Wisconsin 33.0% 3.7% 29.3% 30.4%
Seton Hall 31.0% 5.5% 25.5% 27.0%
Arizona St. 28.3% 4.3% 24.0% 25.1%
Mississippi St. 24.6% 3.3% 21.2% 22.0%
Pittsburgh 25.2% 4.8% 20.4% 21.4%
Utah 20.2% 6.6% 13.6% 14.5%
Florida 18.6% 4.8% 13.8% 14.5%
Wake Forest 10.5% 4.2% 6.2% 6.5%
UNLV 11.0% 5.9% 5.0% 5.4%
Michigan 8.5% 3.4% 5.0% 5.2%
Saint Louis 22.5% 18.3% 4.2% 5.1%
North Texas 20.8% 16.7% 4.1% 4.9%
Colorado 8.8% 4.6% 4.3% 4.5%
Central Florida 10.0% 5.8% 4.2% 4.4%
Virginia Commonwealth 21.0% 18.8% 2.2% 2.7%
St. John's 5.8% 3.4% 2.4% 2.4%
Loyola Marymount 6.2% 4.2% 2.0% 2.1%
Cincinnati 8.4% 6.9% 1.5% 1.6%
Texas Tech 5.3% 3.9% 1.4% 1.5%
UAB 24.2% 23.3% 0.9% 1.1%
Southern Miss 13.7% 13.0% 0.7% 0.8%
Utah Valley 18.6% 18.0% 0.6% 0.8%
Vanderbilt 2.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.7%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Syracuse 4.1% 3.6% 0.5% 0.5%
Santa Clara 4.2% 3.7% 0.5% 0.5%
Temple 2.7% 2.2% 0.5% 0.5%
Washington St. 4.9% 4.5% 0.4% 0.5%
Villanova 4.1% 3.7% 0.4% 0.4%
UC Santa Barbara 29.1% 28.8% 0.3% 0.4%
BYU 6.0% 5.7% 0.3% 0.4%
Louisiana 13.4% 13.1% 0.3% 0.3%
Tulane 3.9% 3.6% 0.3% 0.3%
Nebraska 1.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Georgia 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Washington 1.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Bradley 23.8% 23.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Hofstra 22.6% 22.5% 0.1% 0.1%
LSU 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Mississippi 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1%
San Francisco 4.6% 4.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Cornell 24.9% 24.9% 0.0% 0.1%
Southern Illinois 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.1%
Charlotte 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.1%
San Jose St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 11.5% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Butler 1.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 20.8% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 5.5% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 9.5% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Akron 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 8.4% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 3.3% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Rice 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%