Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23

Last Updated: Nov 28, 2021
Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com

View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Gonzaga Auto 100.0% 73.0% 27.0% 100.0%
1  Purdue Auto 99.7% 37.1% 62.5% 99.5%
1  Duke Auto 99.7% 39.6% 60.1% 99.5%
1  Baylor Auto 99.1% 32.3% 66.8% 98.7%
2  Arizona Auto 98.9% 36.3% 62.7% 98.3%
2  Kansas At-Large 95.2% 20.4% 74.9% 94.0%
2  Villanova Auto 95.9% 35.8% 60.1% 93.6%
2  LSU Auto 96.3% 18.6% 77.7% 95.5%
3  UCLA At-Large 98.1% 33.7% 64.4% 97.1%
3  Houston Auto 97.3% 49.8% 47.4% 94.5%
3  Florida At-Large 94.8% 17.1% 77.7% 93.8%
3  Texas At-Large 89.8% 18.6% 71.2% 87.5%
4  Alabama At-Large 86.5% 12.9% 73.6% 84.5%
4  Kentucky At-Large 87.7% 14.4% 73.3% 85.6%
4  Michigan St. At-Large 88.4% 10.0% 78.4% 87.1%
4  Connecticut At-Large 93.4% 25.2% 68.2% 91.1%
5  Michigan At-Large 84.4% 12.6% 71.8% 82.1%
5  Auburn At-Large 89.5% 11.6% 77.8% 88.1%
5  Tennessee At-Large 81.3% 9.9% 71.4% 79.2%
5  USC At-Large 91.3% 18.4% 72.9% 89.3%
6  BYU At-Large 92.5% 15.4% 77.1% 91.2%
6  Iowa At-Large 83.9% 10.4% 73.5% 82.0%
6  Texas Tech At-Large 82.0% 13.2% 68.8% 79.3%
6  Arkansas At-Large 82.3% 8.9% 73.5% 80.6%
7  Wisconsin At-Large 79.3% 6.2% 73.0% 77.9%
7  Seton Hall At-Large 85.0% 15.7% 69.3% 82.2%
7  Ohio St. At-Large 73.6% 6.4% 67.2% 71.8%
7  Oklahoma St. At-Large 63.5% 5.4% 58.1% 61.4%
8  Florida St. At-Large 82.4% 13.6% 68.8% 79.6%
8  Indiana At-Large 74.4% 5.8% 68.6% 72.8%
8  Oklahoma At-Large 62.5% 4.8% 57.7% 60.6%
8  Memphis At-Large 86.6% 25.4% 61.2% 82.0%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Illinois At-Large 57.1% 5.5% 51.5% 54.5%
9  Louisville At-Large 70.8% 9.0% 61.8% 67.9%
9  Virginia Tech At-Large 72.6% 12.8% 59.8% 68.6%
9  Xavier At-Large 68.7% 8.4% 60.3% 65.8%
10  Mississippi St. At-Large 60.4% 3.5% 56.9% 58.9%
10  Virginia At-Large 53.0% 6.6% 46.3% 49.6%
10  St. Mary's At-Large 62.9% 4.8% 58.1% 61.1%
10  St. Bonaventure Auto 62.7% 29.0% 33.7% 47.5%
11  Colorado St. Auto 58.0% 24.4% 33.6% 44.4%
11  San Francisco At-Large 50.3% 3.6% 46.8% 48.5%
11  North Carolina At-Large 49.1% 5.2% 43.9% 46.3%
11  Providence At-Large 50.6% 4.5% 46.2% 48.3%
11  West Virginia At-Large 47.1% 3.0% 44.1% 45.5%
11  Utah St. At-Large 58.2% 22.2% 36.0% 46.2%
12  Loyola Chicago Auto 61.2% 47.7% 13.5% 25.8%
12  UAB Auto 41.4% 36.6% 4.8% 7.6%
12  UC Irvine Auto 42.1% 37.9% 4.2% 6.8%
12  Belmont Auto 49.0% 46.3% 2.7% 5.1%
13  Buffalo Auto 32.3% 29.4% 2.9% 4.1%
13  New Mexico St. Auto 36.7% 34.7% 2.0% 3.1%
13  Iona Auto 36.9% 35.5% 1.4% 2.2%
13  South Dakota St. Auto 56.9% 55.6% 1.2% 2.8%
14  Furman Auto 25.4% 23.9% 1.5% 2.0%
14  Weber St. Auto 39.1% 37.7% 1.4% 2.3%
14  Oakland Auto 31.6% 31.3% 0.3% 0.5%
14  Yale Auto 31.5% 31.4% 0.1% 0.2%
15  Colgate Auto 35.2% 34.8% 0.4% 0.6%
15  Vermont Auto 43.4% 43.2% 0.2% 0.3%
15  Georgia St. Auto 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15  Hofstra Auto 20.1% 20.1% 0.1% 0.1%
16  Wagner Auto 46.1% 46.1% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Eastern Kentucky Auto 26.5% 26.4% 0.1% 0.1%
16  Winthrop Auto 31.0% 31.0%
16  Nicholls St. Auto 38.9% 38.9%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 35.6% 35.6%
16  Texas Southern Auto 33.8% 33.8%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Alabama 86.5% 12.9% 73.6% 84.5%
Seton Hall 85.0% 15.7% 69.3% 82.2%
Michigan 84.4% 12.6% 71.8% 82.1%
Memphis 86.6% 25.4% 61.2% 82.0%
Iowa 83.9% 10.4% 73.5% 82.0%
Arkansas 82.3% 8.9% 73.5% 80.6%
Florida St. 82.4% 13.6% 68.8% 79.6%
Texas Tech 82.0% 13.2% 68.8% 79.3%
Tennessee 81.3% 9.9% 71.4% 79.2%
Wisconsin 79.3% 6.2% 73.0% 77.9%
Indiana 74.4% 5.8% 68.6% 72.8%
Ohio St. 73.6% 6.4% 67.2% 71.8%
Virginia Tech 72.6% 12.8% 59.8% 68.6%
Louisville 70.8% 9.0% 61.8% 67.9%
Xavier 68.7% 8.4% 60.3% 65.8%
Oklahoma St. 63.5% 5.4% 58.1% 61.4%
St. Mary's 62.9% 4.8% 58.1% 61.1%
Oklahoma 62.5% 4.8% 57.7% 60.6%
Mississippi St. 60.4% 3.5% 56.9% 58.9%
Illinois 57.1% 5.5% 51.5% 54.5%
Virginia 53.0% 6.6% 46.3% 49.6%
San Francisco 50.3% 3.6% 46.8% 48.5%
Providence 50.6% 4.5% 46.2% 48.3%
North Carolina 49.1% 5.2% 43.9% 46.3%
Utah St. 58.2% 22.2% 36.0% 46.2%
West Virginia 47.1% 3.0% 44.1% 45.5%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Clemson 44.7% 4.3% 40.4% 42.2%
Northwestern 41.6% 2.6% 39.0% 40.0%
Iowa St. 35.3% 1.5% 33.8% 34.3%
Marquette 34.1% 2.6% 31.4% 32.3%
Wichita St. 36.9% 8.0% 28.9% 31.4%
Maryland 32.0% 1.4% 30.5% 31.0%
North Carolina St. 29.2% 1.7% 27.6% 28.0%
San Diego St. 40.7% 19.9% 20.8% 26.0%
St. John's 26.5% 3.4% 23.2% 24.0%
Washington St. 25.2% 2.8% 22.5% 23.1%
Utah 24.7% 2.1% 22.6% 23.0%
Cincinnati 28.1% 7.0% 21.1% 22.7%
Oregon 24.2% 2.8% 21.4% 22.0%
Saint Louis 31.2% 14.7% 16.4% 19.3%
Minnesota 19.4% 0.6% 18.8% 18.9%
Central Florida 21.5% 5.6% 16.0% 16.9%
Texas A&M 17.2% 0.6% 16.6% 16.7%
Penn St. 17.4% 0.9% 16.5% 16.7%
Creighton 17.5% 1.8% 15.7% 16.0%
Vanderbilt 16.5% 0.9% 15.6% 15.7%
Notre Dame 17.8% 2.5% 15.3% 15.7%
Boise St. 25.3% 12.9% 12.4% 14.3%
South Carolina 14.8% 0.6% 14.1% 14.2%
Colorado 15.2% 1.5% 13.7% 13.9%
Georgia Tech 14.5% 1.5% 13.0% 13.2%
Wake Forest 14.1% 1.1% 13.0% 13.1%
Mississippi 13.9% 0.9% 13.0% 13.1%
TCU 13.3% 0.5% 12.7% 12.8%
DePaul 13.3% 1.1% 12.2% 12.3%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Syracuse 13.1% 1.5% 11.6% 11.8%
Santa Clara 12.9% 2.1% 10.9% 11.1%
Virginia Commonwealth 20.5% 11.8% 8.7% 9.8%
Wyoming 16.8% 8.1% 8.7% 9.5%
Rhode Island 17.7% 10.9% 6.7% 7.5%
Stanford 7.4% 0.9% 6.5% 6.6%
Ohio 32.8% 28.5% 4.3% 6.0%
Kansas St. 6.1% 0.3% 5.7% 5.8%
Miami (FL) 5.4% 0.4% 5.0% 5.1%
Richmond 14.7% 10.4% 4.4% 4.9%
Davidson 14.3% 10.1% 4.2% 4.6%
Nevada 11.5% 7.4% 4.1% 4.4%
Drake 26.2% 22.9% 3.3% 4.3%
Rutgers 4.2% 0.3% 4.0% 4.0%
Nebraska 3.9% 0.2% 3.7% 3.7%
Butler 4.8% 1.3% 3.5% 3.5%
Loyola Marymount 3.7% 0.6% 3.0% 3.0%
Fresno St. 6.0% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9%
Arizona St. 3.6% 0.7% 2.9% 2.9%
SMU 4.4% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3%
Chattanooga 24.7% 23.2% 1.5% 2.0%
Murray St. 36.0% 34.9% 1.1% 1.7%
Missouri 1.7% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6%
Missouri St. 14.6% 13.3% 1.3% 1.5%
North Texas 14.3% 13.0% 1.3% 1.5%
Navy 32.2% 31.2% 1.0% 1.4%
Tulsa 1.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%
Northern Iowa 9.1% 8.1% 0.9% 1.0%
East Tennessee St. 18.1% 17.3% 0.8% 1.0%
Georgetown 1.3% 0.3% 1.0% 1.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Marshall 11.6% 10.7% 0.9% 1.0%
Dayton 4.6% 3.8% 0.9% 0.9%
Massachusetts 4.4% 3.6% 0.8% 0.8%
Boston College 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.8%
Toledo 13.9% 13.2% 0.7% 0.8%
UC Santa Barbara 27.0% 26.4% 0.5% 0.7%
Louisiana Tech 13.7% 13.1% 0.6% 0.7%
California 1.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.7%
UNLV 2.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.6%
San Diego 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Washington 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5%
George Mason 4.9% 4.5% 0.4% 0.4%
Georgia 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4%
Monmouth 25.4% 25.1% 0.3% 0.4%
Kent St. 9.5% 9.2% 0.3% 0.4%
Temple 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Miami (OH) 9.5% 9.3% 0.2% 0.3%
UC Riverside 14.6% 14.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Wofford 17.7% 17.6% 0.2% 0.2%
Utah Valley 10.5% 10.3% 0.2% 0.2%
UTEP 5.6% 5.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Stephen F. Austin 13.2% 13.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Oregon St. 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Grand Canyon 17.0% 16.9% 0.1% 0.2%
Western Kentucky 8.9% 8.7% 0.1% 0.2%
UNC Greensboro 7.1% 7.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Akron 4.5% 4.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Campbell 18.0% 18.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Morehead St. 14.4% 14.3% 0.1% 0.1%
South Alabama 15.6% 15.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Princeton 24.3% 24.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Charlotte 2.1% 2.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Tulane 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Northeastern 17.1% 17.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Texas St. 15.4% 15.3% 0.1% 0.1%
North Dakota St. 11.9% 11.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Southern Illinois 2.9% 2.9% 0.1% 0.1%
La Salle 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Northern Colorado 10.3% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Harvard 23.7% 23.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%