Preseason Rankings
Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2025-26



View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Purdue Auto 98.7% 33.2% 65.5% 98.0%
1  Houston Auto 99.1% 39.3% 59.8% 98.5%
1  Duke Auto 97.6% 40.6% 57.0% 96.0%
1  Connecticut Auto 97.4% 42.1% 55.3% 95.5%
2  Florida Auto 95.4% 23.4% 72.0% 94.0%
2  Michigan At-Large 92.0% 14.5% 77.5% 90.6%
2  Kentucky At-Large 89.9% 16.0% 73.8% 87.9%
2  St. John's At-Large 90.3% 23.2% 67.1% 87.4%
3  Alabama At-Large 76.5% 8.7% 67.7% 74.2%
3  Kansas At-Large 85.2% 9.8% 75.4% 83.6%
3  BYU At-Large 88.5% 11.4% 77.1% 87.0%
3  Arizona At-Large 85.8% 10.5% 75.2% 84.1%
4  Illinois At-Large 85.0% 8.7% 76.3% 83.5%
4  Texas Tech At-Large 84.5% 9.8% 74.6% 82.8%
4  Louisville At-Large 87.6% 17.9% 69.8% 85.0%
4  Tennessee At-Large 81.5% 10.2% 71.4% 79.5%
5  UCLA At-Large 85.3% 9.2% 76.1% 83.8%
5  Auburn At-Large 70.8% 7.4% 63.4% 68.5%
5  Arkansas At-Large 78.8% 9.0% 69.8% 76.7%
5  Michigan St. At-Large 77.4% 6.0% 71.4% 75.9%
6  Iowa St. At-Large 76.6% 7.3% 69.3% 74.8%
6  Wisconsin At-Large 70.4% 5.0% 65.4% 68.9%
6  Ohio St. At-Large 71.2% 4.6% 66.6% 69.8%
6  Baylor At-Large 70.8% 5.7% 65.1% 69.0%
7  Oregon At-Large 64.9% 3.7% 61.2% 63.6%
7  Creighton At-Large 72.5% 11.5% 61.1% 69.0%
7  Mississippi St. At-Large 61.7% 3.9% 57.9% 60.2%
7  Mississippi At-Large 61.6% 4.5% 57.0% 59.7%
8  USC At-Large 63.4% 3.9% 59.5% 61.9%
8  North Carolina At-Large 72.5% 9.4% 63.0% 69.6%
8  Iowa At-Large 60.1% 2.9% 57.1% 58.9%
8  Indiana At-Large 58.6% 3.0% 55.6% 57.3%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Missouri At-Large 55.7% 3.1% 52.5% 54.2%
9  Maryland At-Large 54.1% 2.3% 51.9% 53.1%
9  Texas A&M At-Large 55.8% 3.4% 52.4% 54.2%
9  North Carolina St. At-Large 64.5% 7.2% 57.3% 61.8%
10  Villanova At-Large 57.3% 6.7% 50.6% 54.2%
10  Texas At-Large 52.0% 3.1% 48.9% 50.5%
10  Vanderbilt At-Large 47.1% 2.4% 44.7% 45.8%
10  Marquette At-Large 52.0% 5.4% 46.6% 49.2%
10  Clemson At-Large 51.5% 4.8% 46.7% 49.0%
10  Virginia At-Large 48.8% 4.2% 44.6% 46.5%
11  Gonzaga Auto 79.3% 55.2% 24.1% 53.7%
11  San Diego St. Auto 54.9% 31.4% 23.5% 34.2%
11  Virginia Commonwealth Auto 29.1% 21.9% 7.2% 9.2%
11  Memphis Auto 43.9% 33.9% 10.0% 15.1%
12  Bradley Auto 16.3% 15.7% 0.6% 0.7%
12  Liberty Auto 24.9% 24.3% 0.6% 0.7%
12  UC Irvine Auto 31.9% 31.6% 0.3% 0.4%
12  Yale Auto 42.3% 42.1% 0.3% 0.4%
13  Akron Auto 28.2% 28.0% 0.2% 0.2%
13  McNeese St. Auto 47.0% 46.9% 0.1% 0.2%
13  Troy Auto 18.9% 18.8% 0.1% 0.1%
13  UNC Wilmington Auto 21.0% 21.0% 0.1% 0.1%
14  High Point Auto 36.8% 36.7% 0.1% 0.1%
14  Chattanooga Auto 23.7% 23.6% 0.1% 0.1%
14  Utah Valley Auto 35.9% 35.9% 0.0% 0.0%
14  St. Thomas Auto 26.1% 26.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15  Youngstown St. Auto 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0%
15  Eastern Kentucky Auto 19.7% 19.7%
15  Northern Colorado Auto 16.5% 16.5%
15  Arkansas Little Rock Auto 28.5% 28.5%
16  Iona Auto 17.0% 17.0%
16  Southern Auto 27.2% 27.2%
16  Colgate Auto 23.2% 23.2%
16  Vermont Auto 29.8% 29.8%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 37.2% 37.2%
16  Central Connecticut St. Auto 24.5% 24.5%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Louisville 87.6% 17.9% 69.8% 85.0%
Arizona 85.8% 10.5% 75.2% 84.1%
UCLA 85.3% 9.2% 76.1% 83.8%
Kansas 85.2% 9.8% 75.4% 83.6%
Illinois 85.0% 8.7% 76.3% 83.5%
Texas Tech 84.5% 9.8% 74.6% 82.8%
Tennessee 81.5% 10.2% 71.4% 79.5%
Arkansas 78.8% 9.0% 69.8% 76.7%
Michigan St. 77.4% 6.0% 71.4% 75.9%
Iowa St. 76.6% 7.3% 69.3% 74.8%
Alabama 76.5% 8.7% 67.7% 74.2%
Ohio St. 71.2% 4.6% 66.6% 69.8%
North Carolina 72.5% 9.4% 63.0% 69.6%
Baylor 70.8% 5.7% 65.1% 69.0%
Creighton 72.5% 11.5% 61.1% 69.0%
Wisconsin 70.4% 5.0% 65.4% 68.9%
Auburn 70.8% 7.4% 63.4% 68.5%
Oregon 64.9% 3.7% 61.2% 63.6%
USC 63.4% 3.9% 59.5% 61.9%
North Carolina St. 64.5% 7.2% 57.3% 61.8%
Mississippi St. 61.7% 3.9% 57.9% 60.2%
Mississippi 61.6% 4.5% 57.0% 59.7%
Iowa 60.1% 2.9% 57.1% 58.9%
Indiana 58.6% 3.0% 55.6% 57.3%
Missouri 55.7% 3.1% 52.5% 54.2%
Texas A&M 55.8% 3.4% 52.4% 54.2%
Villanova 57.3% 6.7% 50.6% 54.2%
Maryland 54.1% 2.3% 51.9% 53.1%
Texas 52.0% 3.1% 48.9% 50.5%
Marquette 52.0% 5.4% 46.6% 49.2%
Clemson 51.5% 4.8% 46.7% 49.0%
Virginia 48.8% 4.2% 44.6% 46.5%
Vanderbilt 47.1% 2.4% 44.7% 45.8%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
SMU 47.9% 4.3% 43.6% 45.5%
Cincinnati 45.7% 1.8% 43.8% 44.6%
Washington 41.5% 1.5% 40.1% 40.7%
Oklahoma 40.6% 1.8% 38.8% 39.5%
Xavier 41.0% 3.7% 37.3% 38.7%
Georgia 34.3% 1.3% 33.0% 33.5%
LSU 32.4% 1.1% 31.2% 31.6%
TCU 30.0% 0.9% 29.1% 29.3%
Providence 30.5% 2.5% 28.0% 28.7%
Nebraska 27.7% 0.7% 27.0% 27.2%
Kansas St. 27.6% 0.9% 26.8% 27.0%
Notre Dame 28.1% 1.9% 26.2% 26.7%
West Virginia 25.9% 0.7% 25.2% 25.4%
Miami (FL) 26.2% 2.2% 23.9% 24.5%
Butler 25.8% 2.0% 23.8% 24.3%
Wake Forest 23.7% 1.4% 22.3% 22.6%
Syracuse 23.1% 1.7% 21.4% 21.8%
Arizona St. 21.5% 0.5% 21.0% 21.1%
Northwestern 20.5% 0.4% 20.1% 20.1%
Georgetown 20.8% 1.6% 19.2% 19.5%
Utah St. 33.3% 17.3% 16.1% 19.4%
Oklahoma St. 18.9% 0.4% 18.5% 18.6%
South Carolina 19.0% 0.6% 18.4% 18.5%
Pittsburgh 18.2% 0.8% 17.4% 17.5%
Central Florida 17.9% 0.5% 17.4% 17.5%
Boise St. 28.2% 14.2% 14.0% 16.3%
St. Mary's 34.1% 21.4% 12.7% 16.2%
Florida St. 15.1% 0.8% 14.3% 14.4%
Virginia Tech 14.6% 0.7% 13.9% 14.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Rutgers 13.9% 0.2% 13.7% 13.7%
Colorado 13.7% 0.2% 13.5% 13.5%
Dayton 27.3% 18.0% 9.2% 11.3%
DePaul 11.6% 0.9% 10.8% 10.9%
Utah 10.6% 0.2% 10.4% 10.5%
Minnesota 10.5% 0.1% 10.3% 10.3%
Georgia Tech 10.7% 0.7% 9.9% 10.0%
Penn St. 9.7% 0.1% 9.6% 9.6%
Stanford 8.9% 0.5% 8.4% 8.5%
California 8.4% 0.4% 7.9% 8.0%
Seton Hall 7.6% 0.4% 7.1% 7.2%
New Mexico 14.9% 8.6% 6.3% 6.9%
San Francisco 14.4% 8.8% 5.7% 6.2%
Boston College 6.0% 0.3% 5.7% 5.8%
UNLV 12.1% 6.9% 5.2% 5.6%
Saint Louis 19.7% 14.9% 4.7% 5.5%
Grand Canyon 13.2% 8.5% 4.6% 5.1%
Nevada 8.6% 5.1% 3.5% 3.7%
Colorado St. 8.9% 5.7% 3.2% 3.4%
George Washington 12.3% 9.6% 2.7% 3.0%
Santa Clara 7.0% 4.4% 2.6% 2.8%
Loyola Chicago 8.8% 6.8% 2.0% 2.2%
North Texas 14.9% 13.2% 1.7% 2.0%
George Mason 9.7% 7.8% 1.8% 2.0%
UAB 12.0% 10.5% 1.5% 1.6%
South Florida 10.8% 9.4% 1.4% 1.5%
Saint Joseph's 6.6% 5.3% 1.3% 1.3%
Oregon St. 4.6% 3.4% 1.2% 1.2%
Duquesne 5.8% 4.7% 1.1% 1.1%
Tulane 7.8% 7.1% 0.7% 0.7%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Washington St. 2.7% 2.0% 0.7% 0.7%
Seattle 2.8% 2.1% 0.7% 0.7%
Illinois St. 15.1% 14.6% 0.6% 0.7%
Belmont 14.1% 13.5% 0.5% 0.6%
Northern Iowa 14.8% 14.3% 0.5% 0.6%
Wichita St. 6.2% 5.8% 0.5% 0.5%
St. Bonaventure 3.1% 2.6% 0.5% 0.5%
Drake 13.5% 13.1% 0.4% 0.5%
Richmond 2.9% 2.5% 0.4% 0.4%
Loyola Marymount 2.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.4%
Florida Atlantic 4.0% 3.7% 0.3% 0.3%
Rhode Island 2.1% 1.8% 0.2% 0.3%
Davidson 2.2% 2.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Temple 5.3% 5.1% 0.2% 0.2%
San Jose St. 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2%
Murray St. 9.5% 9.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Wyoming 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Southern Illinois 7.7% 7.5% 0.2% 0.2%
UC San Diego 18.9% 18.8% 0.1% 0.2%
New Mexico St. 10.9% 10.8% 0.1% 0.2%
Tulsa 3.2% 3.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Louisiana Tech 9.2% 9.1% 0.1% 0.1%
East Carolina 2.7% 2.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Kennesaw St. 9.3% 9.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Jacksonville St. 8.2% 8.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Middle Tennessee 8.7% 8.6% 0.1% 0.1%
UC Santa Barbara 15.7% 15.6% 0.1% 0.1%
College of Charleston 19.1% 19.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Kent St. 16.5% 16.4% 0.1% 0.1%
San Diego 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Texas San Antonio 2.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Charlotte 1.6% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1%
UTEP 7.4% 7.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Hawaii 14.9% 14.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Fordham 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1%
La Salle 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Illinois-Chicago 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 0.1%
James Madison 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Fresno St. 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Towson 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 16.6% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 22.2% 22.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 2.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 7.4% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 12.5% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 6.5% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Princeton 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 4.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Radford 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Texas Arlington 13.9% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Asheville 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 6.2% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 4.3% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Winthrop 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 16.8% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 13.6% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Harvard 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
South Dakota St. 25.9% 25.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Brown 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0%