Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27

Last Updated: Mar 15, 2026
Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com

View: Probabilistic Seeding


***Click on team names for re-designed team pages with much more information on each team***

Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Michigan Auto 100.0% 71.5% 28.5% 100.0%
1  Arizona Auto 100.0% 100.0%
1  Duke Auto 100.0% 100.0%
1  Florida At-Large 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
2  Houston At-Large 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
2  Connecticut At-Large 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
2  Purdue At-Large 100.0% 28.5% 71.5% 100.0%
2  Iowa St. At-Large 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
3  Virginia At-Large 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
3  Michigan St. At-Large 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
3  Illinois At-Large 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
3  Gonzaga Auto 100.0% 100.0%
4  Nebraska At-Large 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
4  Vanderbilt Auto 100.0% 55.5% 44.5% 100.0%
4  Alabama At-Large 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
4  St. John's Auto 100.0% 100.0%
5  Kansas At-Large 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
5  Arkansas At-Large 100.0% 44.5% 55.5% 100.0%
5  Texas Tech At-Large 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
5  Wisconsin At-Large 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
6  Tennessee At-Large 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
6  Louisville At-Large 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
6  BYU At-Large 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
6  North Carolina At-Large 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
7  Kentucky At-Large 99.3% 99.3% 99.3%
7  UCLA At-Large 99.4% 99.4% 99.4%
7  Miami (FL) At-Large 99.9% 99.9% 99.9%
7  Georgia At-Large 97.1% 97.1% 97.1%
8  Clemson At-Large 97.7% 97.7% 97.7%
8  Ohio St. At-Large 96.1% 96.1% 96.1%
8  St. Mary's At-Large 99.7% 99.7% 99.7%
8  Utah St. Auto 100.0% 100.0%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Iowa At-Large 95.8% 95.8% 95.8%
9  Villanova At-Large 98.1% 98.1% 98.1%
9  TCU At-Large 93.0% 93.0% 93.0%
9  Texas A&M At-Large 86.7% 86.7% 86.7%
10  North Carolina St. At-Large 80.5% 80.5% 80.5%
10  Central Florida At-Large 79.3% 79.3% 79.3%
10  Missouri At-Large 73.4% 73.4% 73.4%
10  Saint Louis At-Large 86.7% 86.7% 86.7%
11  Santa Clara At-Large 69.2% 69.2% 69.2%
11  Texas At-Large 60.6% 60.6% 60.6%
11  SMU At-Large 48.1% 48.1% 48.1%
11  Miami (OH) At-Large 60.0% 60.0% 60.0%
11  Virginia Commonwealth Auto 85.6% 64.3% 21.2% 59.5%
11  South Florida Auto 68.2% 65.3% 2.9% 8.4%
12  Akron Auto 100.0% 100.0%
12  McNeese St. Auto 100.0% 100.0%
12  Northern Iowa Auto 100.0% 100.0%
12  High Point Auto 100.0% 100.0%
13  Hofstra Auto 100.0% 100.0%
13  California Baptist Auto 100.0% 100.0%
13  Hawaii Auto 100.0% 100.0%
13  Troy Auto 100.0% 100.0%
14  North Dakota St. Auto 100.0% 100.0%
14  Penn Auto 100.0% 100.0%
14  Wright St. Auto 100.0% 100.0%
14  Kennesaw St. Auto 100.0% 100.0%
15  Idaho Auto 100.0% 100.0%
15  Tennessee St. Auto 100.0% 100.0%
15  Furman Auto 100.0% 100.0%
15  Siena Auto 100.0% 100.0%
16  Queens Auto 100.0% 100.0%
16  LIU Brooklyn Auto 100.0% 100.0%
16  Maryland Baltimore Co. Auto 100.0% 100.0%
16  Howard Auto 100.0% 100.0%
16  Prairie View Auto 100.0% 100.0%
16  Lehigh Auto 100.0% 100.0%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
North Carolina St. 80.5% 80.5% 80.5%
Central Florida 79.3% 79.3% 79.3%
Missouri 73.4% 73.4% 73.4%
Santa Clara 69.2% 69.2% 69.2%
Texas 60.6% 60.6% 60.6%
Miami (OH) 60.0% 60.0% 60.0%
SMU 48.1% 48.1% 48.1%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
San Diego St. 32.8% 32.8% 32.8%
Oklahoma 30.5% 30.5% 30.5%
Indiana 28.4% 28.4% 28.4%
Stanford 27.0% 27.0% 27.0%
Seton Hall 20.2% 20.2% 20.2%
New Mexico 16.7% 16.7% 16.7%
California 15.9% 15.9% 15.9%
Auburn 15.6% 15.6% 15.6%
Virginia Tech 12.5% 12.5% 12.5%
West Virginia 11.4% 11.4% 11.4%
Cincinnati 10.5% 10.5% 10.5%
Belmont 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
Oklahoma St. 6.6% 6.6% 6.6%
Boise St. 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Florida St. 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Tulsa 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
Dayton 37.3% 35.7% 1.6% 2.5%
Arizona St. 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Nevada 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
USC 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Grand Canyon 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
Colorado St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Colorado 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Yale 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 34.7% 34.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Baylor 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%