Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28

Last Updated: Nov 10, 2026
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View: Probabilistic Seeding

Seed Team Bid Type Opening Round At-Large Status Tournament Chances
Total Auto At-Large Bye
1 Connecticut Auto Likely In 99% 32% 99% 99%
1 Florida Auto Likely In 99% 18% 99% 98%
1 Duke Auto Lock 100% 28% 100% 99%
1 Illinois Auto Likely In 99% 22% 99% 98%
2 Kansas Auto Likely In 98% 19% 98% 97%
2 Virginia At-Large Likely In 98% 20% 98% 96%
2 Houston At-Large Likely In 98% 17% 97% 96%
2 Michigan St. At-Large Likely In 97% 16% 97% 95%
3 Alabama At-Large Likely In 95% 11% 94% 95%
3 Texas At-Large Likely In 95% 14% 94% 93%
3 St. John's At-Large Likely In 94% 20% 93% 92%
3 Louisville At-Large Likely In 95% 15% 94% 92%
4 Tennessee At-Large Likely In 91% 10% 90% 90%
4 UCLA At-Large Likely In 94% 11% 93% 90%
4 Gonzaga Auto Likely In 97% 45% 94% 93%
4 Arizona At-Large Likely In 90% 11% 89% 89%
5 Texas Tech At-Large Likely In 88% 12% 86% 86%
5 Michigan At-Large Likely In 86% 9% 85% 87%
5 Texas A&M At-Large Likely In 87% 8% 86% 85%
5 Marquette At-Large Likely In 87% 13% 84% 85%
6 Vanderbilt At-Large Likely In 85% 7% 84% 82%
6 Nebraska At-Large Likely In 86% 8% 85% 82%
6 LSU At-Large Likely In 82% 6% 81% 80%
6 BYU At-Large Likely In 87% 7% 86% 82%
7 Missouri At-Large Bubble 71% 5% 69% 77%
7 Purdue At-Large Bubble 70% 6% 68% 78%
7 USC At-Large Bubble 81% 6% 79% 78%
7 Kentucky At-Large Bubble 74% 5% 73% 76%
8 Auburn At-Large Bubble 77% 5% 75% 76%
8 Miami (FL) At-Large Bubble 76% 8% 73% 74%
8 Indiana At-Large Bubble 77% 5% 76% 76%
8 North Carolina At-Large Bubble 76% 6% 74% 77%
Seed Team Bid Type Opening Round At-Large Status Tournament Chances
Total Auto At-Large Bye
9 Baylor At-Large Bubble 71% 6% 69% 74%
9 Oklahoma St. At-Large Bubble 72% 5% 71% 73%
9 Iowa St. At-Large Bubble 70% 6% 68% 72%
9 West Virginia At-Large Bubble 67% 5% 65% 71%
10 Villanova At-Large Bubble 66% 8% 63% 72%
10 TCU At-Large Bubble 66% 6% 64% 71%
10 Creighton At-Large ✓ Bubble 65% 7% 63% 73%
10 Xavier At-Large ✓ Bubble 65% 7% 62% 71%
10 Arkansas At-Large ✓ Bubble 63% 3% 62% 68%
10 Cincinnati At-Large ✓ Bubble 63% 4% 62% 66%
11 Iowa At-Large ✓ Bubble 62% 3% 61% 69%
11 Virginia Tech At-Large ✓ Bubble 61% 5% 59% 67%
11 Ohio St. At-Large ✓ Bubble 60% 4% 58% 65%
11 Mississippi At-Large ✓ Bubble 60% 3% 58% 67%
11 Minnesota At-Large ✓ Bubble 56% 2% 55% 62%
11 Providence At-Large ✓ Bubble 57% 6% 55% 67%
11 Oregon At-Large ✓ Bubble 50% 2% 49% 63%
11 Utah St. At-Large ✓ Bubble 53% 18% 42% 68%
12 Saint Louis Auto Bubble 55% 26% 39% 73%
12 Grand Canyon Auto Bubble 43% 28% 21% 78%
12 Saint Mary's Auto Likely Out 40% 34% 10% 89%
12 Wichita St. Auto Likely Out 26% 21% 6% 86%
13 Murray St. Auto Likely Out 29% 27% 3% 94%
13 UC Santa Barbara Auto Likely Out 26% 25% 2% 96%
13 Akron Auto Likely Out 24% 23% 2% 95%
13 High Point Auto Likely Out 63% 62% 2% 98%
14 UNC Wilmington Auto Likely Out 28% 27% 1% 94%
14 McNeese St. Auto Likely Out 45% 44% 1% 95%
14 Western Kentucky Auto Negligible 24% 24% 0% 93%
14 Wright St. Auto Likely Out 37% 37% 1% 92%
15 Harvard Auto Negligible 26% 26% 0% 89%
15 Furman Auto Negligible 26% 26% 0% 82%
15 Montana St. Auto ✓ Negligible 27% 27% 0% 75%
15 James Madison Auto ✓ Negligible 18% 18% 0% 69%
15 Central Arkansas Auto ✓ Negligible 23% 23% 0% 61%
15 St. Thomas Auto ✓ Negligible 31% 31% 44%
16 Queens Auto ✓ Negligible 23% 23% 0% 36%
16 Quinnipiac Auto ✓ Negligible 16% 16% 21%
16 Vermont Auto ✓ Negligible 38% 38% 24%
16 American Auto ✓ Negligible 29% 29% 18%
16 Bethune-Cookman Auto ✓ Negligible 29% 29% 15%
16 Tennessee St. Auto ✓ Negligible 29% 29% 14%
16 Howard Auto ✓ Negligible 48% 48% 10%
16 LIU Brooklyn Auto ✓ Negligible 35% 35% 1%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team At-Large Status Tournament Chances
At-Large Auto Total Bye
USC Bubble - In 79% 6% 81% 78%
Auburn Bubble - In 75% 5% 77% 76%
Indiana Bubble - In 76% 5% 77% 76%
North Carolina Bubble - In 74% 6% 76% 77%
Miami (FL) Bubble - In 73% 8% 76% 74%
Kentucky Bubble - In 73% 5% 74% 76%
Missouri Bubble - In 69% 5% 71% 77%
Oklahoma St. Bubble - In 71% 5% 72% 73%
Purdue Bubble - In 68% 6% 70% 78%
Baylor Bubble - In 69% 6% 71% 74%
Iowa St. Bubble - In 68% 6% 70% 72%
West Virginia Bubble - In 65% 5% 67% 71%
TCU Bubble - In 64% 6% 66% 71%
Villanova Bubble - In 63% 8% 66% 72%
Xavier Bubble - In 62% 7% 65% 71%
Creighton Bubble - In 63% 7% 65% 73%
Cincinnati Bubble - In 62% 4% 63% 66%
Arkansas Bubble - In 62% 3% 63% 68%
Virginia Tech Bubble - In 59% 5% 61% 67%
Iowa Bubble - In 61% 3% 62% 69%
Mississippi Bubble - In 58% 3% 60% 67%
Ohio St. Bubble - In 58% 4% 60% 65%
Minnesota Bubble - In 55% 2% 56% 62%
Providence Bubble - In 55% 6% 57% 67%
Utah St. Bubble - Out 42% 18% 53% 68%
Oregon Bubble - Out 49% 2% 50% 63%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team At-Large Status Tournament Chances
At-Large Auto Total Bye
Mississippi St. Bubble - Out 49% 2% 50% 63%
Wisconsin Bubble - Out 48% 2% 49% 65%
Maryland Bubble - Out 44% 2% 45% 62%
Georgia Bubble - Out 43% 1% 44% 57%
North Carolina St. Bubble - Out 41% 3% 43% 56%
Florida St. Bubble - Out 39% 3% 40% 53%
Clemson Bubble - Out 37% 2% 38% 55%
Pittsburgh Bubble - Out 33% 2% 34% 53%
San Diego St. Bubble - Out 33% 13% 41% 63%
Georgetown Bubble - Out 32% 2% 33% 54%
SMU Bubble - Out 32% 2% 33% 52%
DePaul Bubble - Out 31% 2% 32% 52%
Oklahoma Bubble - Out 30% 1% 30% 53%
Notre Dame Bubble - Out 29% 1% 30% 50%
Central Florida Bubble - Out 29% 1% 30% 52%
Stanford Bubble - Out 29% 1% 30% 49%
Arizona St. Bubble - Out 28% 1% 29% 48%
Syracuse Bubble - Out 27% 2% 28% 50%
Washington Bubble - Out 22% 1% 23% 51%
Seton Hall Bubble - Out 21% 2% 23% 48%
Northwestern Likely Out 19% 0% 19% 48%
New Mexico Likely Out 18% 26% 39% 78%
Nevada Likely Out 18% 20% 34% 74%
Boise St. Likely Out 17% 9% 24% 58%
VCU Likely Out 16% 20% 32% 75%
Colorado Likely Out 16% 1% 16% 45%
Rutgers Likely Out 14% 1% 14% 42%
Memphis Likely Out 13% 20% 30% 77%
Colorado St. Likely Out 11% 6% 16% 57%
Team At-Large Status At-Large Auto Total Bye
Butler Likely Out 10% 1% 11% 42%
South Carolina Likely Out 10% 0% 10% 39%
Oregon St. Likely Out 10% 7% 16% 60%
George Washington Likely Out 8% 11% 19% 72%
Santa Clara Likely Out 8% 28% 34% 88%
Utah Likely Out 8% 0% 8% 35%
California Likely Out 8% 0% 8% 35%
Wake Forest Likely Out 8% 0% 8% 38%
Kansas St. Likely Out 5% 0% 5% 37%
Boston College Likely Out 5% 0% 5% 32%
Penn St. Likely Out 4% 0% 4% 31%
Richmond Likely Out 4% 7% 11% 73%
Dayton Likely Out 4% 8% 12% 77%
South Florida Likely Out 4% 16% 19% 88%
Georgia Tech Likely Out 3% 0% 3% 32%
UNLV Likely Out 3% 11% 14% 86%
Rhode Island Likely Out 2% 6% 8% 78%
Tulsa Likely Out 2% 12% 14% 89%
George Mason Likely Out 2% 6% 8% 81%
North Texas Likely Out 2% 10% 11% 90%
Davidson Likely Out 2% 4% 6% 79%
Wyoming Likely Out 2% 8% 9% 88%
UC San Diego Likely Out 2% 24% 25% 96%
Illinois-Chicago Likely Out 1% 19% 20% 95%
Valparaiso Likely Out 1% 13% 14% 94%
Miami (OH) Likely Out 1% 21% 22% 95%
Texas St. Likely Out 1% 2% 3% 72%
UC Irvine Likely Out 1% 19% 20% 96%
Loyola Chicago Likely Out 1% 3% 3% 85%