Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27

Last Updated: Dec 16, 2025
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View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Michigan Auto 100.0% 55.6% 44.4% 100.0%
1  Arizona Auto 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 100.0%
1  Duke Auto 100.0% 45.2% 54.8% 100.0%
1  Iowa St. At-Large 100.0% 25.3% 74.7% 100.0%
2  Connecticut Auto 100.0% 50.5% 49.5% 100.0%
2  Purdue At-Large 99.8% 15.2% 84.6% 99.8%
2  Gonzaga Auto 100.0% 79.1% 20.9% 99.8%
2  BYU At-Large 99.5% 14.2% 85.4% 99.5%
3  Houston At-Large 99.5% 16.4% 83.1% 99.4%
3  Vanderbilt Auto 98.9% 18.0% 80.8% 98.6%
3  Louisville At-Large 99.0% 20.3% 78.8% 98.8%
3  Michigan St. At-Large 99.3% 7.6% 91.7% 99.2%
4  Alabama At-Large 96.4% 15.0% 81.3% 95.7%
4  Kansas At-Large 95.4% 6.5% 88.9% 95.1%
4  Illinois At-Large 97.0% 6.9% 90.1% 96.7%
4  Florida At-Large 93.3% 15.1% 78.2% 92.1%
5  Arkansas At-Large 90.7% 8.8% 81.9% 89.8%
5  Nebraska At-Large 95.8% 2.8% 93.0% 95.7%
5  St. John's At-Large 94.5% 27.8% 66.7% 92.4%
5  North Carolina At-Large 93.5% 7.1% 86.4% 93.0%
6  Tennessee At-Large 85.0% 9.7% 75.3% 83.4%
6  Auburn At-Large 81.2% 5.5% 75.7% 80.1%
6  Georgia At-Large 89.5% 9.5% 79.9% 88.4%
6  Iowa At-Large 88.6% 3.4% 85.2% 88.2%
7  Texas Tech At-Large 80.5% 3.9% 76.6% 79.7%
7  Kentucky At-Large 74.7% 8.0% 66.7% 72.5%
7  Virginia At-Large 88.5% 7.0% 81.6% 87.7%
7  Baylor At-Large 66.6% 2.0% 64.6% 65.9%
8  Ohio St. At-Large 73.8% 1.6% 72.2% 73.4%
8  UCLA At-Large 72.9% 1.9% 71.0% 72.4%
8  Indiana At-Large 71.7% 2.5% 69.2% 71.0%
8  USC At-Large 76.1% 0.9% 75.2% 75.9%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  North Carolina St. At-Large 72.5% 5.4% 67.1% 71.0%
9  LSU At-Large 67.5% 3.2% 64.4% 66.5%
9  Miami (FL) At-Large 66.7% 4.1% 62.6% 65.3%
9  SMU At-Large 66.8% 2.5% 64.3% 66.0%
10  Clemson At-Large 66.0% 3.6% 62.4% 64.7%
10  Villanova At-Large 62.6% 7.6% 54.9% 59.5%
10  Wake Forest At-Large 49.9% 2.3% 47.6% 48.7%
10  Oklahoma At-Large 49.6% 1.7% 47.8% 48.7%
10  Wisconsin At-Large 46.5% 0.7% 45.8% 46.1%
11  Oklahoma St. At-Large 44.7% 0.5% 44.1% 44.4%
11  Seton Hall At-Large 47.5% 3.1% 44.3% 45.8%
11  Utah St. Auto 51.1% 23.0% 28.1% 36.5%
11  Saint Louis Auto 45.4% 30.1% 15.3% 21.9%
11  Memphis Auto 25.8% 24.3% 1.5% 1.9%
12  Belmont Auto 23.1% 22.5% 0.6% 0.8%
12  McNeese St. Auto 60.0% 59.9% 0.1% 0.3%
12  Yale Auto 56.8% 56.6% 0.2% 0.4%
12  Akron Auto 44.5% 44.3% 0.2% 0.4%
13  UC San Diego Auto 38.3% 38.2% 0.1% 0.2%
13  Utah Valley Auto 54.0% 53.9% 0.1% 0.1%
13  UNC Wilmington Auto 22.6% 22.6% 0.0% 0.0%
13  Liberty Auto 22.9% 22.9% 0.0% 0.0%
14  Troy Auto 21.5% 21.5%
14  High Point Auto 41.0% 41.0%
14  East Tennessee St. Auto 36.3% 36.3% 0.0% 0.0%
14  Northern Colorado Auto 18.8% 18.8%
15  St. Thomas Auto 32.8% 32.8%
15  Lipscomb Auto 31.3% 31.3%
15  Marist Auto 24.0% 24.0%
15  Wright St. Auto 23.1% 23.1%
16  Colgate Auto 31.5% 31.5%
16  Vermont Auto 43.7% 43.7%
16  Southeast Missouri St. Auto 18.3% 18.3%
16  LIU Brooklyn Auto 36.8% 36.8%
16  Southern Auto 26.9% 26.9%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 47.4% 47.4%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Tennessee 85.0% 9.7% 75.3% 83.4%
Auburn 81.2% 5.5% 75.7% 80.1%
Texas Tech 80.5% 3.9% 76.6% 79.7%
USC 76.1% 0.9% 75.2% 75.9%
Ohio St. 73.8% 1.6% 72.2% 73.4%
Kentucky 74.7% 8.0% 66.7% 72.5%
UCLA 72.9% 1.9% 71.0% 72.4%
North Carolina St. 72.5% 5.4% 67.1% 71.0%
Indiana 71.7% 2.5% 69.2% 71.0%
LSU 67.5% 3.2% 64.4% 66.5%
SMU 66.8% 2.5% 64.3% 66.0%
Baylor 66.6% 2.0% 64.6% 65.9%
Miami (FL) 66.7% 4.1% 62.6% 65.3%
Clemson 66.0% 3.6% 62.4% 64.7%
Villanova 62.6% 7.6% 54.9% 59.5%
Wake Forest 49.9% 2.3% 47.6% 48.7%
Oklahoma 49.6% 1.7% 47.8% 48.7%
Wisconsin 46.5% 0.7% 45.8% 46.1%
Seton Hall 47.5% 3.1% 44.3% 45.8%
Oklahoma St. 44.7% 0.5% 44.1% 44.4%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Butler 43.8% 3.7% 40.1% 41.6%
Washington 41.6% 0.5% 41.1% 41.3%
Boise St. 53.5% 22.1% 31.3% 40.3%
Central Florida 39.2% 0.4% 38.8% 39.0%
Missouri 39.8% 1.4% 38.4% 38.9%
Texas 39.0% 1.9% 37.0% 37.7%
TCU 36.7% 0.5% 36.3% 36.5%
Arizona St. 35.7% 0.2% 35.5% 35.5%
Notre Dame 35.9% 1.0% 35.0% 35.3%
Texas A&M 34.5% 1.4% 33.1% 33.6%
Colorado 31.1% 0.3% 30.8% 30.9%
St. Mary's 39.4% 13.6% 25.8% 29.9%
Virginia Tech 27.1% 0.6% 26.6% 26.7%
San Diego St. 33.7% 19.4% 14.4% 17.8%
California 16.9% 0.4% 16.6% 16.6%
Creighton 18.3% 2.7% 15.5% 16.0%
Kansas St. 15.9% 0.2% 15.7% 15.7%
Northwestern 15.8% 0.2% 15.6% 15.6%
Mississippi 14.3% 0.5% 13.8% 13.9%
Xavier 15.2% 1.6% 13.6% 13.9%
Virginia Commonwealth 33.3% 24.3% 9.0% 11.9%
New Mexico 19.9% 10.0% 9.9% 11.0%
Syracuse 10.8% 0.5% 10.3% 10.4%
West Virginia 9.6% 0.2% 9.4% 9.5%
Providence 9.5% 1.7% 7.8% 7.9%
Oregon 7.1% 0.1% 6.9% 6.9%
Cincinnati 6.8% 0.1% 6.7% 6.7%
Stanford 6.3% 0.1% 6.2% 6.2%
Colorado St. 15.2% 9.9% 5.3% 5.9%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Mississippi St. 6.0% 0.2% 5.8% 5.8%
Santa Clara 9.2% 3.8% 5.4% 5.6%
Dayton 15.8% 11.3% 4.5% 5.1%
Georgetown 4.5% 0.4% 4.1% 4.1%
George Mason 15.0% 11.5% 3.4% 3.9%
South Carolina 2.9% 0.1% 2.8% 2.8%
Maryland 2.3% 0.0% 2.3% 2.3%
Tulsa 22.8% 21.3% 1.5% 1.9%
Minnesota 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% 1.7%
Marquette 2.2% 0.7% 1.6% 1.6%
Wyoming 5.9% 4.9% 1.1% 1.1%
George Washington 10.5% 9.7% 0.8% 0.9%
Nevada 4.9% 4.0% 0.9% 0.9%
Penn St. 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 0.9%
Richmond 4.9% 4.1% 0.8% 0.8%
DePaul 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 0.7%
Utah 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7%
South Florida 18.7% 18.2% 0.5% 0.6%
Florida St. 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6%
Grand Canyon 5.6% 5.2% 0.4% 0.5%
Pittsburgh 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5%
San Francisco 2.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.4%
Northern Iowa 17.8% 17.6% 0.3% 0.3%
St. Bonaventure 3.0% 2.8% 0.2% 0.2%
Illinois St. 19.3% 19.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Murray St. 15.3% 15.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Seattle 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Rhode Island 2.6% 2.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Florida Atlantic 8.3% 8.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Davidson 1.9% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Miami (OH) 15.7% 15.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Wichita St. 11.9% 11.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Sam Houston St. 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 20.3% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 23.2% 23.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 19.7% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 19.2% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 16.4% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 14.2% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0%