Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27

Last Updated: Jan 30, 2026
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View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Arizona Auto 100.0% 38.3% 61.7% 100.0%
1  Duke Auto 100.0% 52.0% 48.0% 100.0%
1  Michigan Auto 100.0% 38.4% 61.6% 100.0%
1  Connecticut Auto 100.0% 48.3% 51.7% 100.0%
2  Nebraska At-Large 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 100.0%
2  Houston At-Large 100.0% 21.5% 78.5% 100.0%
2  Illinois At-Large 100.0% 16.1% 84.0% 100.0%
2  Michigan St. At-Large 100.0% 16.3% 83.7% 100.0%
3  Iowa St. At-Large 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 100.0%
3  Purdue At-Large 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 100.0%
3  Florida Auto 100.0% 29.6% 70.5% 100.0%
3  Vanderbilt At-Large 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 100.0%
4  Gonzaga Auto 100.0% 71.6% 28.4% 100.0%
4  BYU At-Large 99.8% 8.6% 91.2% 99.7%
4  Texas Tech At-Large 100.0% 8.6% 91.4% 99.9%
4  Alabama At-Large 99.3% 12.4% 86.9% 99.2%
5  Arkansas At-Large 99.4% 10.8% 88.7% 99.4%
5  Kansas At-Large 99.5% 5.9% 93.6% 99.4%
5  Tennessee At-Large 99.2% 9.8% 89.4% 99.1%
5  Virginia At-Large 99.7% 11.1% 88.6% 99.7%
6  St. John's At-Large 99.4% 28.8% 70.6% 99.1%
6  Auburn At-Large 94.5% 5.7% 88.8% 94.2%
6  Louisville At-Large 96.1% 10.3% 85.8% 95.6%
6  Kentucky At-Large 88.6% 4.9% 83.6% 88.0%
7  Iowa At-Large 92.2% 2.5% 89.7% 92.0%
7  North Carolina At-Large 94.6% 4.6% 90.0% 94.4%
7  Clemson At-Large 95.9% 5.5% 90.4% 95.7%
7  Texas A&M At-Large 90.7% 4.3% 86.4% 90.3%
8  Georgia At-Large 90.1% 3.2% 86.9% 89.7%
8  North Carolina St. At-Large 92.5% 8.2% 84.3% 91.9%
8  Villanova At-Large 90.4% 12.3% 78.0% 89.0%
8  SMU At-Large 87.3% 4.0% 83.3% 86.7%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Saint Louis Auto 89.4% 52.8% 36.7% 77.6%
9  UCLA At-Large 81.7% 1.1% 80.6% 81.5%
9  Wisconsin At-Large 76.1% 0.9% 75.2% 75.9%
9  Ohio St. At-Large 75.1% 1.1% 74.0% 74.8%
10  Central Florida At-Large 74.3% 0.3% 74.0% 74.2%
10  Miami (FL) At-Large 77.0% 3.4% 73.6% 76.2%
10  Indiana At-Large 65.0% 0.9% 64.1% 64.7%
10  Utah St. Auto 74.1% 30.3% 43.8% 62.9%
11  USC At-Large 61.8% 0.3% 61.6% 61.7%
11  TCU At-Large 50.5% 0.3% 50.2% 50.3%
11  Texas At-Large 61.5% 2.2% 59.3% 60.6%
11  Seton Hall At-Large 42.7% 3.1% 39.6% 40.9%
11  New Mexico At-Large 54.9% 19.6% 35.4% 44.0%
11  South Florida Auto 29.6% 28.8% 0.8% 1.2%
12  Belmont Auto 30.7% 30.2% 0.5% 0.7%
12  Akron Auto 48.4% 48.3% 0.1% 0.1%
12  Liberty Auto 40.0% 39.9% 0.1% 0.2%
12  McNeese St. Auto 54.8% 54.7% 0.1% 0.1%
13  Yale Auto 67.7% 67.6% 0.1% 0.2%
13  Utah Valley Auto 47.6% 47.6%
13  Hawaii Auto 36.7% 36.7%
13  UNC Wilmington Auto 28.3% 28.3%
14  High Point Auto 50.5% 50.5%
14  Troy Auto 41.2% 41.2%
14  North Dakota St. Auto 34.7% 34.7%
14  Oakland Auto 31.8% 31.8%
15  Montana Auto 23.4% 23.4%
15  East Tennessee St. Auto 29.1% 29.1%
15  Austin Peay Auto 27.0% 27.0%
15  Marist Auto 24.0% 24.0%
16  Navy Auto 37.1% 37.1%
16  Tennessee Martin Auto 26.1% 26.1%
16  Vermont Auto 44.9% 44.9%
16  LIU Brooklyn Auto 55.8% 55.8%
16  Bethune-Cookman Auto 24.6% 24.6%
16  Howard Auto 34.3% 34.3%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
UCLA 81.7% 1.1% 80.6% 81.5%
Miami (FL) 77.0% 3.4% 73.6% 76.2%
Wisconsin 76.1% 0.9% 75.2% 75.9%
Ohio St. 75.1% 1.1% 74.0% 74.8%
Central Florida 74.3% 0.3% 74.0% 74.2%
Indiana 65.0% 0.9% 64.1% 64.7%
USC 61.8% 0.3% 61.6% 61.7%
Texas 61.5% 2.2% 59.3% 60.6%
TCU 50.5% 0.3% 50.2% 50.3%
New Mexico 54.9% 19.6% 35.4% 44.0%
Seton Hall 42.7% 3.1% 39.6% 40.9%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
San Diego St. 52.9% 23.9% 29.1% 38.2%
Missouri 37.9% 0.4% 37.4% 37.6%
St. Mary's 40.1% 14.9% 25.3% 29.7%
Virginia Tech 29.1% 0.3% 28.8% 28.9%
West Virginia 27.9% 0.2% 27.8% 27.8%
Washington 24.0% 0.3% 23.8% 23.8%
Butler 23.3% 1.7% 21.6% 21.9%
Santa Clara 29.9% 11.9% 18.0% 20.4%
Creighton 22.4% 3.1% 19.3% 19.9%
Oklahoma St. 18.9% 0.0% 18.8% 18.8%
LSU 14.6% 0.3% 14.3% 14.3%
Baylor 14.1% 0.1% 14.0% 14.0%
California 14.1% 0.2% 13.8% 13.9%
Stanford 11.3% 0.1% 11.2% 11.2%
Boise St. 18.7% 8.8% 9.9% 10.9%
Virginia Commonwealth 27.6% 19.5% 8.0% 10.0%
Cincinnati 7.3% 0.2% 7.2% 7.2%
Mississippi 6.2% 0.2% 6.0% 6.0%
Oklahoma 4.9% 0.1% 4.7% 4.7%
Mississippi St. 4.1% 0.0% 4.1% 4.1%
Wake Forest 3.7% 0.2% 3.5% 3.5%
Arizona St. 3.2% 0.0% 3.2% 3.2%
Nevada 9.5% 7.0% 2.5% 2.7%
George Mason 9.6% 7.2% 2.4% 2.6%
Grand Canyon 9.6% 7.2% 2.4% 2.6%
Syracuse 1.9% 0.1% 1.9% 1.9%
Northwestern 1.4% 0.0% 1.4% 1.4%
Notre Dame 1.2% 0.1% 1.2% 1.2%
Tulsa 27.0% 26.3% 0.7% 0.9%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Providence 1.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9%
Miami (OH) 29.2% 28.5% 0.7% 0.9%
Xavier 1.4% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9%
Colorado 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
Georgetown 1.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8%
Minnesota 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
DePaul 0.9% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6%
Dayton 5.7% 5.2% 0.5% 0.5%
South Carolina 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3%
Kansas St. 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
George Washington 9.6% 9.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Colorado St. 1.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Pittsburgh 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Florida St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 23.1% 23.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%