Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27

Last Updated: Feb 13, 2026
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View: Probabilistic Seeding


***Click on team names for re-designed team pages with much more information on each team***

Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Michigan Auto 100.0% 46.7% 53.3% 100.0%
1  Arizona Auto 100.0% 40.3% 59.7% 100.0%
1  Duke Auto 100.0% 49.0% 51.0% 100.0%
1  Houston At-Large 100.0% 25.6% 74.4% 100.0%
2  Connecticut Auto 100.0% 53.4% 46.6% 100.0%
2  Florida Auto 100.0% 40.2% 59.8% 100.0%
2  Illinois At-Large 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 100.0%
2  Purdue At-Large 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 100.0%
3  Iowa St. At-Large 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 100.0%
3  Kansas At-Large 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 100.0%
3  Nebraska At-Large 100.0% 8.3% 91.7% 100.0%
3  Michigan St. At-Large 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 100.0%
4  Vanderbilt At-Large 100.0% 11.1% 88.8% 100.0%
4  Gonzaga Auto 99.9% 63.4% 36.6% 99.8%
4  Alabama At-Large 100.0% 11.4% 88.5% 99.9%
4  Louisville At-Large 99.8% 17.7% 82.1% 99.7%
5  Texas Tech At-Large 99.9% 6.6% 93.3% 99.9%
5  Tennessee At-Large 99.8% 10.0% 89.8% 99.7%
5  Arkansas At-Large 99.8% 11.3% 88.4% 99.8%
5  Virginia At-Large 99.8% 10.3% 89.5% 99.8%
6  St. John's At-Large 99.5% 27.8% 71.6% 99.2%
6  BYU At-Large 99.3% 3.9% 95.3% 99.2%
6  Kentucky At-Large 98.3% 5.7% 92.7% 98.2%
6  North Carolina At-Large 98.7% 5.1% 93.6% 98.6%
7  Saint Louis Auto 95.4% 61.3% 34.1% 88.0%
7  North Carolina St. At-Large 97.4% 6.6% 90.8% 97.3%
7  Utah St. Auto 95.5% 36.0% 59.5% 93.0%
7  Iowa At-Large 93.0% 1.7% 91.3% 92.9%
8  Clemson At-Large 95.2% 4.8% 90.5% 95.0%
8  Wisconsin At-Large 92.4% 1.2% 91.1% 92.3%
8  Villanova At-Large 93.1% 11.3% 81.8% 92.3%
8  Texas At-Large 75.0% 2.3% 72.7% 74.4%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  SMU At-Large 84.3% 3.0% 81.3% 83.8%
9  Texas A&M At-Large 84.1% 3.1% 81.0% 83.6%
9  Auburn At-Large 80.7% 2.6% 78.2% 80.2%
9  Georgia At-Large 79.7% 1.5% 78.2% 79.4%
10  UCLA At-Large 76.7% 1.0% 75.7% 76.4%
10  Miami (FL) At-Large 77.6% 2.6% 74.9% 77.0%
10  Indiana At-Large 72.7% 0.9% 71.9% 72.5%
10  Missouri At-Large 62.7% 0.6% 62.0% 62.4%
11  Central Florida At-Large 67.1% 0.2% 66.9% 67.0%
11  USC At-Large 62.2% 0.2% 62.1% 62.2%
11  Ohio St. At-Large 58.3% 0.6% 57.7% 58.1%
11  St. Mary's At-Large 59.9% 16.5% 43.4% 52.0%
11  TCU At-Large 54.3% 0.2% 54.1% 54.2%
11  South Florida Auto 33.0% 30.7% 2.3% 3.3%
12  Belmont Auto 30.4% 29.7% 0.7% 1.0%
12  Akron Auto 42.4% 42.4% 0.0% 0.0%
12  McNeese St. Auto 46.4% 46.3% 0.0% 0.0%
12  Yale Auto 60.0% 60.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13  Liberty Auto 37.0% 37.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13  High Point Auto 55.0% 55.0%
13  Utah Valley Auto 48.6% 48.6%
13  Hawaii Auto 41.5% 41.5%
14  UNC Wilmington Auto 26.7% 26.7%
14  Troy Auto 30.7% 30.7%
14  St. Thomas Auto 36.7% 36.7%
14  Portland St. Auto 28.3% 28.3%
15  East Tennessee St. Auto 35.9% 35.9%
15  Austin Peay Auto 32.9% 32.9%
15  Oakland Auto 28.2% 28.2%
15  Navy Auto 42.0% 42.0%
16  Merrimack Auto 24.4% 24.4%
16  Tennessee Martin Auto 26.2% 26.2%
16  LIU Brooklyn Auto 61.0% 61.0%
16  Vermont Auto 38.1% 38.1%
16  Bethune-Cookman Auto 32.5% 32.5%
16  Howard Auto 52.6% 52.6%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
SMU 84.3% 3.0% 81.3% 83.8%
Texas A&M 84.1% 3.1% 81.0% 83.6%
Auburn 80.7% 2.6% 78.2% 80.2%
Georgia 79.7% 1.5% 78.2% 79.4%
Miami (FL) 77.6% 2.6% 74.9% 77.0%
UCLA 76.7% 1.0% 75.7% 76.4%
Texas 75.0% 2.3% 72.7% 74.4%
Indiana 72.7% 0.9% 71.9% 72.5%
Central Florida 67.1% 0.2% 66.9% 67.0%
Missouri 62.7% 0.6% 62.0% 62.4%
USC 62.2% 0.2% 62.1% 62.2%
Ohio St. 58.3% 0.6% 57.7% 58.1%
TCU 54.3% 0.2% 54.1% 54.2%
St. Mary's 59.9% 16.5% 43.4% 52.0%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
San Diego St. 59.3% 24.1% 35.2% 46.3%
Santa Clara 54.3% 18.9% 35.4% 43.6%
New Mexico 46.8% 15.8% 31.1% 36.9%
Virginia Tech 36.9% 0.5% 36.5% 36.6%
Seton Hall 31.0% 2.9% 28.1% 28.9%
West Virginia 24.5% 0.2% 24.3% 24.3%
Boise St. 27.6% 7.7% 19.9% 21.5%
Virginia Commonwealth 33.0% 20.9% 12.1% 15.3%
Stanford 14.7% 0.1% 14.7% 14.7%
Oklahoma St. 14.1% 0.1% 14.0% 14.0%
Baylor 14.0% 0.3% 13.7% 13.8%
California 9.7% 0.1% 9.6% 9.6%
Cincinnati 7.7% 0.3% 7.5% 7.5%
Washington 5.7% 0.1% 5.6% 5.6%
Nevada 12.2% 7.5% 4.7% 5.1%
Oklahoma 3.1% 0.1% 3.0% 3.0%
LSU 2.8% 0.1% 2.7% 2.7%
Grand Canyon 8.8% 6.2% 2.5% 2.7%
Arizona St. 1.9% 0.0% 1.9% 1.9%
Creighton 3.1% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6%
Wake Forest 1.7% 0.1% 1.6% 1.6%
Syracuse 1.4% 0.1% 1.3% 1.3%
Miami (OH) 34.4% 33.6% 0.8% 1.3%
Butler 1.7% 0.6% 1.1% 1.1%
Georgetown 1.7% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0%
Tulsa 27.1% 26.6% 0.5% 0.6%
Colorado 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5%
Minnesota 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5%
Mississippi 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Providence 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3%
George Mason 4.8% 4.6% 0.2% 0.2%
Xavier 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Mississippi St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Florida St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Dayton 2.8% 2.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Colorado St. 1.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1%
DePaul 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%