Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27

Last Updated: Dec 31, 2025
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View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Michigan Auto 100.0% 54.0% 46.0% 100.0%
1  Arizona Auto 100.0% 33.4% 66.6% 100.0%
1  Iowa St. At-Large 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 100.0%
1  Purdue At-Large 100.0% 19.8% 80.2% 100.0%
2  Duke Auto 100.0% 42.3% 57.7% 100.0%
2  Connecticut Auto 100.0% 53.0% 47.0% 100.0%
2  Vanderbilt Auto 99.9% 24.9% 75.0% 99.8%
2  Gonzaga Auto 100.0% 77.5% 22.4% 99.8%
3  BYU At-Large 99.8% 12.9% 86.9% 99.8%
3  Houston At-Large 99.5% 12.8% 86.7% 99.4%
3  Illinois At-Large 99.4% 10.4% 89.0% 99.3%
3  Louisville At-Large 99.3% 20.8% 78.5% 99.1%
4  Alabama At-Large 97.9% 14.3% 83.6% 97.5%
4  Michigan St. At-Large 98.9% 4.6% 94.3% 98.9%
4  Kansas At-Large 97.2% 6.6% 90.6% 97.0%
4  Tennessee At-Large 95.5% 12.6% 82.9% 94.8%
5  Florida At-Large 94.8% 14.5% 80.3% 93.9%
5  Nebraska At-Large 97.4% 2.1% 95.4% 97.4%
5  North Carolina At-Large 98.0% 8.9% 89.0% 97.8%
5  Texas Tech At-Large 91.7% 4.0% 87.7% 91.4%
6  Arkansas At-Large 89.4% 6.6% 82.9% 88.7%
6  Iowa At-Large 91.4% 3.5% 88.0% 91.1%
6  Kentucky At-Large 83.2% 7.4% 75.8% 81.8%
6  Georgia At-Large 89.2% 7.8% 81.3% 88.2%
7  St. John's At-Large 91.1% 20.3% 70.8% 88.8%
7  Baylor At-Large 80.3% 3.2% 77.1% 79.7%
7  Auburn At-Large 76.7% 4.0% 72.7% 75.8%
7  Virginia At-Large 91.0% 7.7% 83.3% 90.3%
8  UCLA At-Large 77.9% 1.7% 76.3% 77.6%
8  Villanova At-Large 87.0% 11.8% 75.2% 85.3%
8  North Carolina St. At-Large 79.8% 6.8% 73.0% 78.3%
8  Ohio St. At-Large 73.7% 1.4% 72.3% 73.3%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  USC At-Large 77.8% 0.7% 77.1% 77.6%
9  SMU At-Large 79.5% 4.0% 75.5% 78.7%
9  LSU At-Large 71.3% 2.4% 68.9% 70.6%
9  Indiana At-Large 66.6% 1.4% 65.2% 66.1%
10  Clemson At-Large 69.2% 3.1% 66.1% 68.2%
10  Miami (FL) At-Large 68.4% 4.0% 64.4% 67.1%
10  Creighton At-Large 60.2% 7.1% 53.2% 57.2%
10  Oklahoma At-Large 48.6% 1.1% 47.6% 48.1%
10  Central Florida At-Large 52.2% 0.4% 51.7% 52.0%
11  Seton Hall At-Large 48.3% 2.7% 45.6% 46.9%
11  Butler At-Large 46.7% 3.2% 43.5% 44.9%
11  Utah St. Auto 68.8% 32.4% 36.4% 53.8%
11  Saint Louis Auto 57.0% 37.0% 20.0% 31.8%
11  Memphis Auto 25.8% 25.1% 0.7% 0.9%
12  Illinois St. Auto 27.3% 26.8% 0.5% 0.7%
12  Akron Auto 45.5% 45.4% 0.1% 0.2%
12  UC San Diego Auto 46.1% 45.8% 0.3% 0.6%
12  McNeese St. Auto 53.5% 53.3% 0.1% 0.3%
13  Yale Auto 54.8% 54.7% 0.1% 0.2%
13  Utah Valley Auto 52.2% 52.2% 0.0% 0.0%
13  Liberty Auto 26.7% 26.6% 0.1% 0.1%
13  Hofstra Auto 24.0% 24.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14  High Point Auto 51.6% 51.6%
14  Arkansas St. Auto 29.1% 29.1%
14  Northern Colorado Auto 20.4% 20.4%
14  St. Thomas Auto 33.9% 33.9%
15  Quinnipiac Auto 24.4% 24.4%
15  East Tennessee St. Auto 33.3% 33.3%
15  Lipscomb Auto 29.2% 29.2%
15  Wright St. Auto 23.9% 23.9%
16  Tennessee Martin Auto 19.3% 19.3%
16  Vermont Auto 43.2% 43.2%
16  LIU Brooklyn Auto 43.0% 43.0%
16  Colgate Auto 28.2% 28.2%
16  Southern Auto 23.1% 23.1%
16  Howard Auto 37.3% 37.3%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Kentucky 83.2% 7.4% 75.8% 81.8%
Baylor 80.3% 3.2% 77.1% 79.7%
SMU 79.5% 4.0% 75.5% 78.7%
North Carolina St. 79.8% 6.8% 73.0% 78.3%
USC 77.8% 0.7% 77.1% 77.6%
UCLA 77.9% 1.7% 76.3% 77.6%
Auburn 76.7% 4.0% 72.7% 75.8%
Ohio St. 73.7% 1.4% 72.3% 73.3%
LSU 71.3% 2.4% 68.9% 70.6%
Clemson 69.2% 3.1% 66.1% 68.2%
Miami (FL) 68.4% 4.0% 64.4% 67.1%
Indiana 66.6% 1.4% 65.2% 66.1%
Creighton 60.2% 7.1% 53.2% 57.2%
Central Florida 52.2% 0.4% 51.7% 52.0%
Oklahoma 48.6% 1.1% 47.6% 48.1%
Seton Hall 48.3% 2.7% 45.6% 46.9%
Butler 46.7% 3.2% 43.5% 44.9%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
TCU 43.5% 0.5% 43.1% 43.2%
Texas 42.5% 2.1% 40.5% 41.3%
Texas A&M 39.8% 1.6% 38.2% 38.8%
Oklahoma St. 38.5% 0.4% 38.0% 38.2%
Washington 32.9% 0.2% 32.7% 32.8%
Wisconsin 32.7% 0.2% 32.5% 32.6%
St. Mary's 42.0% 14.7% 27.3% 32.0%
Boise St. 43.1% 18.1% 25.0% 30.5%
Notre Dame 26.0% 0.7% 25.3% 25.5%
Wake Forest 18.1% 0.6% 17.5% 17.6%
Virginia Tech 16.7% 0.2% 16.5% 16.5%
Missouri 16.2% 0.4% 15.8% 15.9%
San Diego St. 31.0% 18.2% 12.8% 15.6%
Arizona St. 15.1% 0.1% 15.0% 15.0%
Kansas St. 14.5% 0.1% 14.4% 14.4%
California 13.9% 0.3% 13.6% 13.6%
Virginia Commonwealth 34.7% 25.4% 9.3% 12.5%
Northwestern 10.7% 0.0% 10.7% 10.7%
New Mexico 17.7% 8.9% 8.8% 9.6%
West Virginia 9.5% 0.1% 9.4% 9.4%
Mississippi 9.5% 0.3% 9.2% 9.2%
Syracuse 9.3% 0.3% 9.1% 9.1%
Cincinnati 9.3% 0.2% 9.0% 9.1%
Oregon 8.7% 0.1% 8.6% 8.6%
Mississippi St. 6.9% 0.1% 6.7% 6.7%
Colorado 6.3% 0.0% 6.2% 6.2%
Stanford 5.2% 0.1% 5.2% 5.2%
Nevada 12.4% 8.0% 4.4% 4.8%
Xavier 5.2% 0.5% 4.7% 4.7%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Santa Clara 8.9% 4.6% 4.2% 4.4%
Georgetown 4.5% 0.4% 4.1% 4.1%
Dayton 14.9% 12.1% 2.8% 3.2%
South Carolina 2.8% 0.1% 2.7% 2.7%
Providence 3.3% 0.8% 2.5% 2.5%
Pittsburgh 2.6% 0.2% 2.3% 2.4%
Maryland 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% 1.7%
Minnesota 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% 1.7%
Grand Canyon 7.9% 6.7% 1.2% 1.3%
Tulsa 16.9% 15.9% 0.9% 1.1%
George Mason 6.2% 5.2% 1.0% 1.0%
Belmont 24.8% 24.2% 0.6% 0.7%
George Washington 10.7% 10.0% 0.7% 0.7%
Colorado St. 4.0% 3.4% 0.6% 0.6%
South Florida 19.5% 19.1% 0.4% 0.5%
Utah 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Murray St. 13.9% 13.6% 0.3% 0.4%
DePaul 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4%
San Francisco 2.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.3%
Wyoming 3.3% 3.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Northern Iowa 16.4% 16.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Miami (OH) 21.4% 21.3% 0.1% 0.1%
St. Bonaventure 2.5% 2.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Florida St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Penn St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
UNLV 1.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Wichita St. 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Seattle 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 2.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 23.3% 23.2% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 22.2% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 14.9% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Marquette 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%