Dartmouth
Ivy League
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#275
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#281
Pace69.8#125
Improvement+2.3#4

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#316
First Shot-3.5#296
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#292
Layup/Dunks-0.5#195
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#283
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#171
Freethrows-1.6#299
Improvement+1.7#7

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#202
First Shot-1.3#220
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#135
Layups/Dunks-3.2#301
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#188
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#68
Freethrows-0.9#255
Improvement+0.6#94
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 40.4% 60.5% 23.3%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.4% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.1% 1.5%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Brown (Home) - 45.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 42 - 4
Quad 32 - 84 - 12
Quad 45 - 68 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 132   @ Fordham L 74-88 16%     0 - 1 -9.3 +4.9 -14.0
  Nov 11, 2022 195   Bryant L 70-89 43%     0 - 2 -23.1 -15.3 -5.7
  Nov 15, 2022 133   @ Quinnipiac L 72-81 16%     0 - 3 -4.4 -4.8 +1.3
  Nov 25, 2022 344   Incarnate Word L 64-69 72%     0 - 4 -16.8 -16.5 -0.1
  Nov 27, 2022 312   @ Texas San Antonio W 78-77 OT 48%     1 - 4 -4.4 -3.9 -0.6
  Nov 28, 2022 240   Grambling St. L 49-73 43%     1 - 5 -28.1 -23.4 -4.9
  Dec 03, 2022 308   Cal St. Bakersfield W 79-54 68%     2 - 5 +14.2 +6.1 +9.0
  Dec 06, 2022 146   Vermont L 52-68 34%     2 - 6 -17.5 -15.7 -3.5
  Dec 09, 2022 329   @ Central Connecticut St. L 50-59 55%     2 - 7 -16.2 -25.3 +9.0
  Dec 13, 2022 276   @ Boston University L 59-67 40%     2 - 8 -11.2 -8.3 -3.8
  Dec 16, 2022 129   @ South Florida L 55-59 15%     2 - 9 +1.0 -14.8 +15.8
  Dec 20, 2022 143   @ Massachusetts L 57-68 17%     2 - 10 -6.7 -12.5 +5.7
  Jan 01, 2023 105   Cornell L 63-74 25%     2 - 11 0 - 1 -9.8 -15.4 +5.8
  Jan 06, 2023 92   @ Yale W 81-77 10%     3 - 11 1 - 1 +12.1 +4.5 +7.2
  Jan 07, 2023 207   @ Brown L 70-77 26%     3 - 12 1 - 2 -6.1 +2.9 -9.2
  Jan 14, 2023 148   Penn W 75-71 34%     4 - 12 2 - 2 +2.3 +3.5 -1.0
  Jan 16, 2023 157   @ Harvard W 60-59 20%     5 - 12 3 - 2 +4.2 -2.3 +6.6
  Jan 21, 2023 115   @ Princeton L 90-93 OT 14%     5 - 13 3 - 3 +2.7 +7.8 -4.7
  Jan 28, 2023 346   Columbia W 83-73 80%     6 - 13 4 - 3 -4.8 +3.6 -8.5
  Feb 03, 2023 207   Brown L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 04, 2023 92   Yale L 63-71 22%    
  Feb 11, 2023 115   Princeton L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 17, 2023 105   @ Cornell L 72-85 11%    
  Feb 18, 2023 346   @ Columbia W 71-68 62%    
  Feb 25, 2023 148   @ Penn L 66-76 18%    
  Mar 04, 2023 157   Harvard L 63-67 38%    
Projected Record 8 - 18 6 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 2.0 0.1 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 6.4 0.7 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 11.4 3.7 0.0 16.3 4th
5th 0.7 11.5 10.4 0.2 22.8 5th
6th 0.3 9.4 15.6 1.2 26.5 6th
7th 6.0 12.0 2.7 0.0 20.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 6.4 22.1 31.1 24.5 11.9 3.4 0.6 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-4 75.4% 0.4    0.1 0.3 0.0
9-5 22.8% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 0.0% 0.0
10-4 0.6% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.6
9-5 3.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 3.3
8-6 11.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 11.8
7-7 24.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 24.3
6-8 31.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 31.0
5-9 22.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 22.1
4-10 6.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.4
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0%
Lose Out 6.4% 0.2% 16.0 0.2