Dartmouth
Ivy League
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#277
Expected Predictive Rating-8.6#296
Pace70.7#153
Improvement+2.4#25

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#303
First Shot-4.0#290
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#207
Layup/Dunks-0.7#198
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#212
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#312
Freethrows+2.0#64
Improvement+0.7#112

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#223
First Shot-2.3#254
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#144
Layups/Dunks-7.8#355
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#84
Freethrows+2.0#68
Improvement+1.7#37
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.7% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 5.6% 15.9% 4.4%
.500 or above in Conference 11.3% 17.9% 10.6%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.2% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 48.0% 30.4% 50.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Vermont (Away) - 10.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 45 - 47 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 6   @ Duke L 54-92 1%     0 - 1 -17.1 -7.1 -11.2
  Nov 10, 2023 104   Umass Lowell L 48-81 23%     0 - 2 -31.6 -24.0 -7.3
  Nov 25, 2023 148   @ Saint Louis L 65-66 17%     0 - 3 +3.0 -3.0 +5.9
  Nov 29, 2023 101   @ Vermont L 62-76 10%    
  Dec 02, 2023 268   @ Albany L 72-76 37%    
  Dec 06, 2023 237   New Hampshire W 73-72 53%    
  Dec 09, 2023 243   Marist W 67-66 53%    
  Dec 13, 2023 307   Boston University W 69-64 66%    
  Dec 16, 2023 357   @ Le Moyne W 74-68 71%    
  Dec 21, 2023 242   @ Sacred Heart L 71-76 33%    
  Dec 30, 2023 157   @ Vanderbilt L 66-76 19%    
  Jan 06, 2024 191   @ Penn L 68-76 25%    
  Jan 15, 2024 60   @ Princeton L 60-78 5%    
  Jan 20, 2024 89   Yale L 65-74 21%    
  Jan 27, 2024 221   Brown L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 02, 2024 113   Cornell L 75-82 28%    
  Feb 03, 2024 249   Columbia W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 10, 2024 138   @ Harvard L 63-74 16%    
  Feb 16, 2024 249   @ Columbia L 69-74 35%    
  Feb 17, 2024 113   @ Cornell L 72-85 13%    
  Feb 23, 2024 191   Penn L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 24, 2024 60   Princeton L 63-75 15%    
  Mar 01, 2024 89   @ Yale L 62-77 10%    
  Mar 02, 2024 221   @ Brown L 68-74 29%    
  Mar 09, 2024 138   Harvard L 66-71 33%    
Projected Record 7 - 18 4 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 1.7 0.7 0.2 3.8 3rd
4th 0.4 2.3 3.0 1.2 0.1 7.0 4th
5th 0.7 4.2 5.5 1.4 0.1 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 6.8 6.7 2.0 0.1 17.1 6th
7th 0.2 4.7 9.9 7.5 1.7 0.1 24.1 7th
8th 3.6 10.5 11.9 6.9 1.4 0.0 34.5 8th
Total 3.6 10.7 16.7 18.2 16.4 13.0 9.9 5.7 3.4 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-2 85.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-3 59.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
10-4 29.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
9-5 5.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 0.0% 0.0
12-2 0.0% 0.0
11-3 0.2% 3.6% 3.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
10-4 0.7% 2.8% 2.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
9-5 1.3% 6.4% 6.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
8-6 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.3
7-7 5.7% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.6
6-8 9.9% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.8
5-9 13.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.9
4-10 16.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.4
3-11 18.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.2
2-12 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.7
1-13 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.7
0-14 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.6
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%