Dartmouth
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.9 251
Results Rating -4.5 242
Pace 73.3 61
Improvement +1.7 121

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 255 C D+ D- C+ C
Defense C- 220 C C+ F+ B D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 341 C- 55% 244 -5.1 341
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 308 D 34% 303 -2.4 296
Three Pointers 53% 10 B- 36% 83 +8.1 10
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 185 C +0.5 156
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 155
Second Chance D- 24.0% 336 B- 1.11 73 D+ 0.27 285
Turnovers D- 19.6% 330
Freethrows C+ 0.32 148 B- 74% 119 C+ 0.24 126
Total Offense D+ -3.3 255

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 44% 262 F 16.1% 358
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 327 D- 8.4% 335
Three Pointers C 84% 184 C- 1.0% 229
Total C+ 59% 110 D 6.9% 313

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 42 C- 60% 229 +4.0 315
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 231 C 38% 175 -0.7 127
Three Pointers 37% 287 B 31% 54 -3.6 43
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 279 C+ -1.0 142
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 164
Second Chance C+ 28.8% 113 C 1.02 165 C+ 0.29 125
Turnovers F+ 12.5% 358
Freethrows B- 0.27 77 B- 71% 84 B 0.19 63
Total Defense C- -1.6 220

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 45% 121 C- 9.3% 238
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 235 C 4.9% 172
Three Pointers A 73% 7 D+ 0.4% 282
Total B 50% 64 C- 5.2% 206

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.5 88 16.7 69
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 324 0.18 209
Improvement -0.5 #217 +2.3 #63

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 272 249 215
Results Rating Rank 276 240 206
Conference Record 5 - 9 6 - 8 7 - 7
Conference Finish 6 5 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 4% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 0% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 30% 68% 18%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 3% 0% 4%
First Four2% 2% 1%
First Round1% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Penn (Away) - 23.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 34 - 8
Quad 46 - 710 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 183 Marist L 56 - 75 49% -8  0% 0 - 1 F -24 F -19 F C- F D+ -4 D C C
 Wed, Nov 12 354 @Bryant L 75 - 82 73% -1  45% 0 - 2 F -18 F -10 D+ F D- D- -8 F+ A F
 Sun, Nov 16 173 Appalachian St. L 77 - 85 45% -5  11% 0 - 3 D- -12 C- -1 A C- F F -10 F C+ B
 Sat, Nov 29 237 @St. Peter's W 87 - 61 36% +7  74% 1 - 3 A+ +25 A+ +18 A B A A- +8 A- B- D
 Wed, Dec 3 346 New Hampshire W 69 - 68 85% -2  17% 2 - 3 F+ -15 F -11 C F F D+ -4 C+ B- F
 Sat, Dec 6 100 @Wyoming L 80 - 93 12% -1  53% 2 - 4 D+ -5 B- +4 A B- F F+ -9 F A F
 Tue, Dec 9 91 @Colorado St. L 55 - 76 10% -9  6% 2 - 5 D- -12 F -13 D+ D- F C -1 F A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 13 261 Boston University W 77 - 64 64% +9  84% 3 - 5 C+ +4 C- -2 C+ F D+ A- +7 A+ B- D-
 Tue, Dec 16 321 @Holy Cross W 89 - 64 59% +11  74% 4 - 5 A +18 A +13 A+ C- F B+ +5 B+ B- F
 Fri, Dec 19 285 @Sacred Heart L 63 - 85 47% -8  1% 4 - 6 F -26 F -20 F C- F D -5 A F F
 Mon, Dec 29 4 @Florida L 72 - 94 1% -21  3% 4 - 7 C+ +5 B +6 B+ C- A- C -1 B- D+ C
 Mon, Jan 5 146 @Harvard W 76 - 68 21% +3  88% 5 - 7 1 - 0 B+ +12 A- +11 A B+ C- C+ +2 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 172 @Cornell W 102 - 91 24% +8  90% 6 - 7 2 - 0 B+ +13 A +14 A- A- A+ C- -2 B C D+
 Sat, Jan 17 169 Penn L 74 - 84 45% -1  52% 6 - 8 2 - 1 D- -14 D -5 D C- D+ F+ -9 D+ C- F
 Mon, Jan 19 255 Princeton W 71 - 69 62% -3  18% 7 - 8 3 - 1 D+ -6 C+ +3 C- B A- F+ -9 C- B- F
 Sat, Jan 24 202 Columbia L 69 - 79 52% -4  27% 7 - 9 3 - 2 F+ -15 F -11 D- C D D+ -4 B B+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 85 @Yale L 68 - 83 9% -3  31% 7 - 10 3 - 3 D+ -5 C- -1 C+ F C- D -5 F A- C-
 Sat, Jan 31 267 @Brown W 77 - 70 OT 43% +4  74% 8 - 10 4 - 3 C+ +4 C- -1 C F+ C- B +4 A- D+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 146 Harvard L 58 - 71 40% -6  0% 8 - 11 4 - 4 F+ -15 F -12 D- F B D+ -4 C- A F+
 Fri, Feb 13 85 Yale L 70 - 83 21% -9  2% 8 - 12 4 - 5 D -9 D- -6 D+ B+ F D+ -3 D A F
 Sat, Feb 14 267 Brown L 76 - 79 66% +3  65% 8 - 13 4 - 6 D- -12 C- -2 A- F+ F F -10 F D+ B-
 Sat, Feb 21 202 @Columbia W 64 - 63 30% -0  51% 9 - 13 5 - 6 C +2 F+ -9 F D- B- A +11 A+ D- F
 Fri, Feb 27 169 @Penn L 73 - 80 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 255 @Princeton L 71 - 74 39%
 Sat, Mar 7 172 Cornell L 87 - 88 45%
Totals 10 - 15 6 - 8 -5 D+ -3 D+ C C C- -2 B- B- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- D B- C 31% 26% 53% C C D- B- D+ D- C+ B- C+ C- C- C B C+ 44% 19% 37% D+ C C+ C C+ F+ B- B- B
1.04 55% 34% 36% 0 0 1.03 24% 1.1 .27 20% .32 74% .24 1.11 60% 38% 31% -1 +1 1.01 29% 1.0 .29 13% .27 71% .22
Nov
9		 Marist F F D F F 43% 14% 43% A F D+ C+ C- F A+ C- A+ D+ D- D B D 33% 27% 40% C D C C C C A+ C- A+
0.77 47% 33% 16% -17 +1 0.70 26% 1.0 .26 27% .53 68% .36 1.03 65% 44% 29% +1 -1 1.02 25% 1.1 .28 18% .08 80% .07
Nov
12		 Bryant F D B C- D+ 33% 12% 55% C- D+ F F F D- D- F F D- B- F D+ D- 45% 4% 52% F F+ A+ F A F F+ F+ F
1.01 53% 43% 34% -1 +1 1.02 22% 0.8 .17 16% .26 56% .14 1.10 52% 50% 34% -2 +3 1.04 14% 1.2 .16 9% .33 82% .27
Nov
16		 Appalachian St. C- D F A+ A 29% 7% 64% B A D B- C- F A+ B- A+ F F+ F C+ F 55% 14% 31% F F F+ A C+ B D+ F D-
1.07 50% 0% 44% +5 +1 1.14 26% 1.0 .26 22% .53 73% .39 1.18 68% 57% 31% +7 +2 1.20 35% 0.8 .29 18% .36 71% .25
Nov
29		 St. Peter's A+ B- B A+ A 41% 11% 48% B- A B+ C B A A A+ A+ A- A D A+ A+ 50% 13% 37% F A- C- B+ B- D C+ F D
1.32 61% 40% 43% +8 +1 1.20 41% 1.1 .45 15% .50 86% .43 0.93 42% 43% 21% -14 +2 0.77 36% 0.9 .31 15% .31 88% .27
Dec
3		 New Hampshire F C- B+ C+ C+ 28% 26% 46% F+ C B- F F F D- D+ F+ D+ D+ C A+ C 43% 30% 27% A C+ B C+ B- F C F D+
0.99 57% 46% 35% +2 -1 1.04 33% 0.5 .18 20% .27 73% .20 0.98 58% 35% 20% -6 -1 0.88 21% 0.9 .18 12% .26 75% .20
Dec
6		 Wyoming B- D+ B A+ A+ 30% 16% 55% D A F A+ B- F B- A+ A+ F+ F D- B F 50% 17% 33% C F B- A+ A F C A+ A-
1.10 54% 43% 46% +9 0 1.20 12% 2.3 .28 23% .41 87% .36 1.28 76% 50% 32% +10 +1 1.24 33% 0.7 .22 10% .33 59% .20
Dec
9		 Colorado St. F B F D D 30% 13% 57% B D+ C- F D- F F F F C F D- D- F 53% 18% 29% D- F A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F A+
0.87 64% 17% 31% -4 0 0.96 25% 0.9 .22 24% .17 50% .08 1.20 81% 44% 40% +16 +1 1.37 19% 0.8 .14 19% .06 100% .06
Dec
13		 Boston University C- C F A+ B- 29% 15% 56% C C+ D F F D+ A+ C A+ A- B+ B+ A A+ 35% 12% 53% D+ A+ F A+ B- D- D+ A+ B-
1.17 57% 29% 44% +7 0 1.17 26% 0.8 .19 14% .46 73% .34 0.97 50% 33% 30% -7 +1 0.90 35% 0.7 .23 15% .31 59% .18
Dec
16		 Holy Cross A D- A+ A+ A+ 35% 19% 46% C- A+ A F C- F A+ F A- B+ A+ A D A 36% 26% 38% D+ B+ C+ B B- F F D- F
1.32 53% 56% 59% +19 0 1.40 39% 0.8 .32 22% .38 65% .25 0.95 39% 31% 37% -7 -1 0.86 19% 0.9 .16 12% .35 81% .29
Dec
19		 Sacred Heart F F F D- F 36% 9% 55% B- F B+ F C- F A+ F A+ D C+ F A+ A+ 40% 10% 50% F A F F F F B+ A- A-
0.85 41% 0% 31% -12 +1 0.81 39% 0.8 .32 28% .41 64% .26 1.15 54% 50% 20% -11 +1 0.83 43% 1.3 .55 12% .22 71% .15
Dec
29		 Florida B D F A+ A 22% 32% 46% D B+ F A+ C- A- D- C+ D C D+ A+ A- B- 55% 13% 33% C- B- F A- D+ C F A+ F
0.97 46% 26% 44% +1 -3 0.98 8% 1.7 .13 13% .22 71% .16 1.26 67% 29% 28% 0 +2 1.07 54% 0.9 .50 16% .61 61% .37
Jan
5		 Harvard A- C+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% D A C- A+ B+ C- A+ F A+ C+ A C- A+ A+ 49% 9% 42% F A+ F+ F F F C- A C
1.19 60% 56% 42% +10 0 1.21 28% 1.4 .40 17% .55 59% .32 1.06 46% 40% 23% -13 +2 0.81 33% 1.4 .45 13% .27 73% .20
Jan
10		 Cornell A A+ C+ A- A 36% 20% 44% D+ A- F+ A+ A- A+ F+ F F C- F F A+ B+ 40% 11% 49% C B C- C+ C D+ F F F
1.36 77% 42% 41% +12 0 1.26 23% 2.0 .46 7% .27 63% .17 1.21 74% 50% 25% +1 +1 1.07 32% 1.1 .35 16% .38 83% .32
Jan
17		 Penn D F A+ D- D- 31% 11% 57% C+ D D+ B- C- D+ A+ A A+ F+ A- C+ F C- 44% 20% 35% F D+ C- C- C- F F A F+
1.02 47% 67% 29% -5 +1 0.94 27% 1.0 .27 18% .44 73% .32 1.16 46% 36% 47% +1 0 1.06 32% 1.0 .32 7% .46 61% .28
Jan
19		 Princeton C+ B+ F B C 37% 18% 45% C- C- D- A+ B A- C- B C+ F+ F B+ C D 28% 22% 50% B+ C- A+ F B- F A+ F B+
1.19 67% 11% 36% 0 0 1.02 22% 1.7 .38 10% .30 75% .22 1.15 67% 33% 33% +1 -1 1.02 13% 1.8 .23 2% .19 100% .19
Jan
24		 Columbia F F D A- D- 30% 22% 48% D D- F A+ C D C+ D- C- D+ C A+ F+ B- 30% 23% 47% A B A B- B+ F F C- F
0.96 31% 33% 38% -6 -1 0.89 18% 1.6 .28 15% .31 68% .21 1.10 56% 17% 40% -1 -1 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 17% .47 71% .34
Jan
30		 Yale C- D+ B B- C 33% 16% 51% C+ C+ C- F F C- F F F D F A- F F 47% 18% 35% D F A- B- A- C- A+ F A+
1.06 56% 44% 36% +2 0 1.05 27% 0.7 .18 16% .13 57% .07 1.29 75% 33% 44% +13 +1 1.29 27% 1.1 .31 14% .16 100% .16
Jan
31		 Brown C- C+ A+ F C- 35% 12% 53% B- C F A+ F+ C- A+ A+ A+ B A+ F C- A+ 52% 5% 43% F A- F A+ D+ C- D+ C- D+
1.03 59% 67% 27% -2 +1 1.00 13% 1.5 .19 19% .46 86% .40 0.94 28% 67% 33% -15 +3 0.79 41% 0.9 .35 20% .28 71% .20
Feb
7		 Harvard F F+ F C- F+ 44% 8% 48% B+ D- F F F B D A+ B- D+ D F C+ D+ 37% 17% 46% C C- A+ B+ A F+ F F F
0.90 48% 0% 32% -9 +2 0.88 16% 0.5 .08 14% .23 92% .22 1.10 65% 50% 33% +4 0 1.11 18% 0.8 .14 14% .33 89% .29
Feb
13		 Yale D- C+ F C- D 47% 16% 37% B+ D+ D- A+ B+ F C- A+ B- D+ D+ D+ F D+ 58% 17% 25% F D A+ F A F D+ A+ B
1.02 61% 13% 33% -3 +1 0.98 23% 1.7 .40 23% .25 85% .21 1.22 61% 44% 46% +7 +2 1.21 17% 1.6 .28 7% .35 64% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
14		 Brown C- A+ A+ C A 21% 14% 64% C- A- F A+ F+ F A+ A A+ F F F F+ F 41% 18% 41% C F B F D+ B- D- A+ B
1.06 78% 67% 33% +8 0 1.17 12% 1.7 .19 24% .49 81% .40 1.10 76% 44% 38% +11 +1 1.25 24% 1.4 .34 22% .30 47% .14
Feb
21		 Columbia F+ B- F F F 29% 13% 58% C F F A+ D- B- C- A+ B+ A A+ A+ A A+ 47% 15% 38% D+ A+ B+ F D- F A+ B A+
0.95 60% 14% 23% -12 0 0.79 14% 1.4 .19 12% .29 94% .27 0.94 42% 13% 29% -14 +1 0.76 31% 1.3 .40 15% .16 67% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.3 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 9.1 4.5 13.7 3rd
4th 17.9 15.9 33.8 4th
5th 8.7 23.6 0.4 32.8 5th
6th 12.6 1.9 14.5 6th
7th 4.9 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 26.2 43.6 25.4 4.8 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5
8-6 4.8% 6.6% 6.6% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.5
7-7 25.4% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2 24.2
6-8 43.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.7 42.9
5-9 26.2% 26.2
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.9 97.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 15.2 4.8 74.6 20.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.2%
Lose Out 26.2%