Dartmouth
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#245
Expected Predictive Rating-7.2#272
Pace75.2#47
Improvement+4.7#8

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#252
First Shot+0.1#167
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#345
Layup/Dunks-8.8#361
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#191
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.6#6
Freethrows+0.6#139
Improvement+1.4#79

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#231
First Shot-4.1#310
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#35
Layups/Dunks-9.6#364
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#265
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#33
Freethrows+1.6#81
Improvement+3.3#9
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 3.6% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 10.9% 17.3% 5.3%
.500 or above in Conference 30.4% 35.5% 26.1%
Conference Champion 1.9% 2.5% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 27.4% 23.0% 31.2%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 0.9%
First Round2.5% 3.4% 1.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Away) - 46.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 47 - 69 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sun, Nov 9 156 Marist L 56-75 42%     0 - 1 -21.8 -15.2 -5.9
  Wed, Nov 12 297 @Bryant L 75-82 49%     0 - 2 -11.4 -3.1 -7.9
  Sun, Nov 16 231 Appalachian St. L 77-85 59%     0 - 3 -15.0 -0.2 -14.6
  Sat, Nov 29 293 @St. Peter's W 87-61 48%     1 - 3 +21.8 +19.5 +4.0
  Wed, Dec 3 335 New Hampshire W 69-68 80%     2 - 3 -12.7 -7.9 -4.8
  Sat, Dec 6 97 @Wyoming L 80-93 12%     2 - 4 -4.8 +8.0 -12.4
  Tue, Dec 9 72 @Colorado St. L 55-76 8%     2 - 5 -10.1 -11.0 -1.5
  Sat, Dec 13 288 Boston University W 77-64 69%     3 - 5 +3.0 +0.6 +3.3
  Tue, Dec 16 289 @Holy Cross L 73-74 47%    
  Fri, Dec 19 257 @Sacred Heart L 78-80 41%    
  Mon, Dec 29 13 @Florida L 65-91 1%    
  Mon, Jan 5 200 @Harvard L 70-75 32%    
  Sat, Jan 10 164 @Cornell L 83-91 24%    
  Sat, Jan 17 256 Penn W 81-78 62%    
  Mon, Jan 19 261 Princeton W 75-71 63%    
  Sat, Jan 24 137 Columbia L 75-78 38%    
  Fri, Jan 30 79 @Yale L 72-87 8%    
  Sat, Jan 31 218 @Brown L 68-72 35%    
  Sat, Feb 7 200 Harvard W 73-72 53%    
  Fri, Feb 13 79 Yale L 75-84 21%    
  Sat, Feb 14 218 Brown W 71-69 56%    
  Sat, Feb 21 137 @Columbia L 72-81 20%    
  Fri, Feb 27 256 @Penn L 78-81 41%    
  Sat, Feb 28 261 @Princeton L 72-74 42%    
  Sat, Mar 7 164 Cornell L 86-88 44%    
Projected Record 9 - 16 5 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.3 1.6 2.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.4 4.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.3 4.7 6.8 2.1 0.2 14.0 4th
5th 0.3 4.7 8.5 2.5 0.1 16.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 4.6 8.7 2.8 0.1 16.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 5.1 8.2 3.0 0.1 17.4 7th
8th 0.6 2.6 5.6 5.8 2.1 0.2 16.7 8th
Total 0.6 2.6 6.5 11.3 15.2 16.8 16.5 13.0 8.5 5.3 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-2 89.3% 0.3    0.2 0.0
11-3 64.1% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0
10-4 25.0% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-5 6.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-2 0.3% 26.2% 26.2% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
11-3 0.9% 14.1% 14.1% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8
10-4 2.5% 16.3% 16.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.1
9-5 5.3% 11.3% 11.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 4.7
8-6 8.5% 8.3% 8.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 7.8
7-7 13.0% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.1 0.6 12.3
6-8 16.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 16.2
5-9 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.8
4-10 15.2% 15.2
3-11 11.3% 11.3
2-12 6.5% 6.5
1-13 2.6% 2.6
0-14 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.4 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%