Yale
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#77
Expected Predictive Rating+12.2#47
Pace66.5#263
Improvement-4.8#360

Offense
Total Offense+8.9#21
First Shot+8.0#17
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#130
Layup/Dunks+4.5#49
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#175
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#156
Freethrows+2.7#45
Improvement-2.7#353

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#214
First Shot-3.4#289
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#63
Layups/Dunks-0.6#194
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#292
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#287
Freethrows+1.8#76
Improvement-2.0#331
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 2.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.2% 66.4% 56.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 3.9% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.9 11.0 12.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.7% 99.2%
Conference Champion 76.2% 83.1% 75.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 1.2% 0.1%
First Round57.1% 65.6% 56.3%
Second Round11.7% 18.8% 11.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.5% 4.2% 2.3%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 8.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 02 - 1
Quad 38 - 310 - 4
Quad 413 - 123 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 204 @Navy W 97-68 76%     1 - 0 +29.1 +18.6 +8.4
  Tue, Nov 11 157 @Quinnipiac W 97-60 67%     2 - 0 +40.0 +24.7 +14.5
  Sat, Nov 15 207 Stony Brook W 86-79 89%     3 - 0 +0.9 +18.1 -16.5
  Tue, Nov 18 118 Rhode Island L 77-86 76%     3 - 1 -8.9 +9.3 -18.7
  Fri, Nov 21 277 Green Bay W 73-67 89%     4 - 1 -0.3 +5.4 -4.9
  Sun, Nov 23 174 College of Charleston W 74-63 79%     5 - 1 +10.1 +5.2 +5.7
  Mon, Nov 24 54 Akron W 97-94 39%     6 - 1 +13.2 +30.6 -17.2
  Sun, Nov 30 189 @Vermont W 77-74 73%     7 - 1 +4.2 +12.0 -7.5
  Sun, Dec 7 201 Illinois-Chicago W 80-66 89%     8 - 1 +8.3 +11.0 -1.7
  Wed, Dec 10 327 Albany W 93-82 94%     9 - 1 +1.3 +10.8 -10.0
  Mon, Dec 29 9 @Alabama L 81-96 9%    
  Mon, Jan 5 210 @Brown W 75-67 76%    
  Sat, Jan 10 251 @Princeton W 79-69 82%    
  Sat, Jan 17 159 Cornell W 93-82 84%    
  Mon, Jan 19 136 Columbia W 82-73 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 252 @Penn W 85-75 81%    
  Fri, Jan 30 265 Dartmouth W 88-72 93%    
  Sat, Jan 31 200 Harvard W 81-68 89%    
  Fri, Feb 6 210 Brown W 78-64 90%    
  Mon, Feb 9 310 @Howard W 84-71 87%    
  Fri, Feb 13 265 @Dartmouth W 85-75 82%    
  Sat, Feb 14 200 @Harvard W 78-71 75%    
  Sat, Feb 21 252 Penn W 88-72 92%    
  Fri, Feb 27 159 @Cornell W 90-85 65%    
  Sat, Feb 28 136 @Columbia W 79-76 60%    
  Sat, Mar 7 251 Princeton W 82-66 92%    
Projected Record 21 - 5 11 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 6.7 16.2 22.5 20.1 9.3 76.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.1 6.2 3.9 0.8 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.7 7.7 13.5 20.1 23.3 20.1 9.3 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 9.3    9.3
13-1 100.0% 20.1    19.8 0.3
12-2 96.4% 22.5    20.0 2.4 0.0
11-3 80.6% 16.2    11.0 4.8 0.3
10-4 49.7% 6.7    2.8 3.1 0.9 0.1
9-5 17.5% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
8-6 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 76.2% 76.2 63.0 11.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 9.3% 74.6% 73.0% 1.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 3.9 1.4 0.0 2.3 6.1%
13-1 20.1% 68.6% 68.3% 0.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.6 7.4 0.6 0.0 6.3 1.2%
12-2 23.3% 61.4% 61.3% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 2.6 10.0 1.7 0.0 9.0 0.1%
11-3 20.1% 54.0% 54.0% 12.2 0.6 7.5 2.5 0.2 9.2
10-4 13.5% 48.7% 48.7% 12.4 0.1 3.9 2.4 0.2 7.0
9-5 7.7% 42.7% 42.7% 12.6 0.0 1.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.4
8-6 3.7% 35.0% 35.0% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.4
7-7 1.6% 12.1% 12.1% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4
6-8 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 14.0 0.0 0.5
5-9 0.2% 0.2
4-10 0.0% 0.0
3-11 0.0% 0.0
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 57.2% 57.0% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.9 12.9 32.0 9.4 1.0 0.0 42.8 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 8.1 0.8 2.6 6.8 14.0 15.5 13.6 18.5 12.5 15.1 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 21.4% 10.6 1.8 3.6 16.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 22.9% 10.6 8.6 14.3