Penn
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#279
Expected Predictive Rating-8.2#296
Pace64.4#304
Improvement+2.1#52

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#174
First Shot-3.5#282
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#32
Layup/Dunks-1.3#228
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#361
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#147
Freethrows+1.7#83
Improvement+1.4#76

Defense
Total Defense-6.3#348
First Shot-5.8#343
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#226
Layups/Dunks-2.3#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#73
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.7#352
Freethrows+1.7#79
Improvement+0.7#115
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.8% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 3.2% 6.7% 1.8%
.500 or above in Conference 18.6% 23.9% 16.4%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.6% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 32.7% 27.0% 35.0%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
First Round1.0% 1.5% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Neutral) - 29.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 47 - 69 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 347   @ NJIT W 58-57 61%     1 - 0 -8.3 -13.4 +5.2
  Nov 07, 2024 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 87-84 85%     2 - 0 -14.2 +5.8 -20.1
  Nov 12, 2024 231   @ Lafayette L 63-65 30%     2 - 1 -2.8 +5.0 -8.2
  Nov 15, 2024 101   Saint Joseph's L 69-86 22%     2 - 2 -15.1 +2.9 -19.1
  Nov 19, 2024 56   @ Villanova L 49-93 5%     2 - 3 -31.4 -15.5 -19.5
  Nov 29, 2024 305   Navy L 78-86 65%     2 - 4 -18.4 -0.9 -17.5
  Nov 30, 2024 211   Maine W 77-64 46%     3 - 4 +7.6 +11.1 -2.5
  Dec 01, 2024 173   Elon L 53-68 40%     3 - 5 -18.8 -13.4 -7.9
  Dec 07, 2024 167   Drexel L 67-73 29%    
  Dec 09, 2024 55   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 60-79 4%    
  Dec 20, 2024 257   Rider W 71-69 57%    
  Dec 22, 2024 82   @ George Mason L 61-77 7%    
  Dec 29, 2024 31   @ Penn St. L 66-88 2%    
  Jan 11, 2025 319   @ Dartmouth L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 18, 2025 149   Cornell L 77-81 36%    
  Jan 20, 2025 241   @ Harvard L 68-73 32%    
  Jan 25, 2025 192   Columbia L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 31, 2025 164   Brown L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 01, 2025 107   Yale L 72-79 26%    
  Feb 07, 2025 108   Princeton L 71-78 26%    
  Feb 14, 2025 107   @ Yale L 69-82 12%    
  Feb 15, 2025 164   @ Brown L 66-75 21%    
  Feb 21, 2025 319   Dartmouth W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 22, 2025 241   Harvard W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 28, 2025 149   @ Cornell L 74-84 19%    
  Mar 01, 2025 192   @ Columbia L 72-80 24%    
  Mar 08, 2025 108   @ Princeton L 68-81 12%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 5 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.6 0.1 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 2.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 4.4 1.7 0.1 8.8 4th
5th 0.4 3.6 7.3 2.8 0.1 14.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 6.0 9.3 3.7 0.2 20.3 6th
7th 0.2 3.1 9.0 10.2 3.7 0.3 26.5 7th
8th 1.2 4.7 7.7 5.7 1.5 0.1 20.9 8th
Total 1.2 4.9 10.8 15.8 18.1 16.9 13.8 8.9 5.3 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
11-3 70.4% 0.3    0.2 0.1
10-4 38.0% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-5 8.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0
13-1 0.0% 0.0
12-2 0.1% 15.6% 15.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-3 0.4% 21.5% 21.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
10-4 1.1% 12.5% 12.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
9-5 2.7% 10.4% 10.4% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.4
8-6 5.3% 7.2% 7.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.9
7-7 8.9% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 8.6
6-8 13.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.8
5-9 16.9% 16.9
4-10 18.1% 18.1
3-11 15.8% 15.8
2-12 10.8% 10.8
1-13 4.9% 4.9
0-14 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%