IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Penn
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	-1.4	#181
Expected Predictive Rating	-0.8	#178

Pace	71.3	#114
Improvement	+1.4	#127

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#173	C	C	C	C+	D
Defense	#213	C-	C+	C-	B+	C

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	35%	#277	1.04	#316	-4.1	#316
2 Pt. Jumpers	27%	#56	0.78	#146	+2.8	#56
Three Pointers	38%	#254	1.18	#18	+1.3	#133
1st FG Attempt			1.02	#175	+0.0	#176
Freethrows	0.33	#119	70%	#245	0.23	#147
Second Chance	30.7%	#170	1.02	#177	0.31	#167
Turnovers					17.3%	#198
Total Offense					-0.3	#173

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	43%	#66	1.26	#307	-4.7	#330
2 Pt. Jumpers	22%	#134	0.82	#282	-1.2	#280
Three Pointers	35%	#329	0.97	#105	+3.7	#43
1st FG Attempt			1.06	#253	-2.2	#255
Freethrows	0.26	#41	67%	#11	0.17	#26
Second Chance	31.0%	#203	0.92	#49	0.29	#104
Turnovers					15.9%	#242
Total Defense					-1.1	#213

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	-2.2%	#314	0.4%	#199
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	2.3%	#133	3.8%	#255
Possession Length	16.2	#77	17.4	#205
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.12	#327	0.20	#268
Improvement	-1.1	#245	+2.5	#52

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.3%	8.0%	2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.2	14.2	14.4

.500 or above	55.1%	65.5%	33.4%
.500 or above in Conference	62.6%	73.9%	39.2%
Conference Champion	2.8%	3.9%	0.5%
Last Place in Conference	2.9%	1.2%	6.4%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	6.3%	8.0%	2.6%
Second Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Princeton (Home) - 67.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	4 - 6	4 - 11
Quad 4	9 - 3	13 - 13

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Sun, Nov 9	253 @American	L	78 - 84	53%	-3	0 - 1		-8	-2	C-	D-	F	-6	D-	C	C
Tue, Nov 11	64 @Providence	L	81 - 106	11%	-10	0 - 2		-13	+0	F+	C+	B	-11	D-	F	A-
Mon, Nov 17	128 Saint Joseph's	W	83 - 74	48%	+1	1 - 2		+8	+7	A	D-	D-	+0	D+	A+	C
Fri, Nov 21	221 @Drexel	W	84 - 68	46%	+9	2 - 2		+16	+18	B	A+	C	-2	B-	C	F
Fri, Nov 28	194 Merrimack	W	77 - 65	64%	+4	3 - 2		+7	+6	B	C+	B+	+2	A	C+	F
Sat, Nov 29	225 La Salle	W	73 - 71	69%	-3	4 - 2		-5	+5	B-	A	C	-9	A+	F	D
Sun, Nov 30	122 Hofstra	L	60 - 77	47%	-4	4 - 3		-18	-11	F	B-	C	-7	F	D	A+
Sat, Dec 6	31 Villanova	L	63 - 90	8%	-15	4 - 4		-12	+1	C	B-	C-	-15	F	B	C
Mon, Dec 8	315 Lafayette	W	74 - 72	85%	+6	5 - 4		-10	-6	D	F	B-	-5	F	A+	B-
Sat, Dec 20	118 @Rutgers	L	69 - 70	25%	+4	5 - 5		+5	+0	F	A+	D	+5	B-	A+	F
Sun, Dec 28	86 @George Mason	L	79 - 83	16%	-3	5 - 6		+5	+12	A+	D	A-	-7	D+	F+	F
Wed, Dec 31	314 NJIT	W	80 - 61	84%	+6	6 - 6		+7	+3	A	D-	D+	+4	C+	A-	B-
Mon, Jan 5	215 @Princeton	L	76 - 78	45%	+1	6 - 7	0 - 1	-2	+8	D-	A+	F	-10	F	A-	D
Sat, Jan 10	282 Brown	W	81 - 73	79%	+1	7 - 7	1 - 1	-2	+11	A-	F+	A	-12	F+	D+	F+
Sat, Jan 17	229 @Dartmouth	W	84 - 74	48%	+1	8 - 7	2 - 1	+9	+8	C+	C+	A+	+1	B	C	D
Mon, Jan 19	163 @Harvard	L	63 - 64	35%	-1	8 - 8	2 - 2	+2	-1	D+	F	C	+2	C	B	C
Sat, Jan 24	79 Yale	L	60 - 77	30%	-5	8 - 9	2 - 3	-13	-12	D-	D	C-	-2	B-	B-	A-
Fri, Jan 30	183 @Columbia	L	67 - 72	39%	-5	8 - 10	2 - 4	-3	-3	D	C-	C+	-1	F+	B+	A-
Sat, Jan 31	178 @Cornell	W	91 - 81	38%	+11	9 - 10	3 - 4	+12	+9	A+	F	F+	+2	C	A+	F
Sat, Feb 7	215 Princeton	W	75 - 70	67%
Fri, Feb 13	183 Columbia	W	79 - 76	62%
Sat, Feb 14	178 Cornell	W	90 - 87	60%
Sat, Feb 21	79 @Yale	L	71 - 83	14%
Fri, Feb 27	229 Dartmouth	W	81 - 76	69%
Sat, Feb 28	163 Harvard	W	72 - 70	57%
Fri, Mar 6	282 @Brown	W	70 - 68	60%
Totals						13 - 13	7 - 7	-1	+0	C	C	C	-1	C-	C+	C-

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ivy League Finish

	0-14	1-13	2-12	3-11	4-10	5-9	6-8	7-7	8-6	9-5	10-4	11-3	12-2	13-1	14-0	Total
1st									0.1	1.6	1.1					2.8	1st
2nd								0.3	7.7	6.7	0.3					15.0	2nd
3rd							0.0	7.1	12.5	1.2						20.8	3rd
4th							2.3	15.2	2.3							19.9	4th
5th						0.4	10.0	6.1								16.5	5th
6th					0.2	4.6	8.5	0.4								13.7	6th
7th				0.2	2.8	6.2	1.4									10.6	7th
8th				0.3	0.4	0.1										0.8	8th

Total				0.6	3.3	11.3	22.2	29.1	22.6	9.5	1.4						Total

Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4	81.0%	1.1	0.5	0.6	0.1
9-5	17.0%	1.6	0.1	0.7	0.7	0.2
8-6	0.5%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
7-7	0.0%

Total	2.8%	2.8	0.6	1.2	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4	1.4%	27.7%	27.7%		12.8												0.1	0.3	0.0			1.0
9-5	9.5%	19.6%	19.6%		13.7												0.1	0.7	1.0	0.2		7.6
8-6	22.6%	13.7%	13.7%		14.5												0.0	0.1	1.4	1.6	0.0	19.5
7-7	29.1%	3.2%	3.2%		14.8													0.0	0.2	0.7	0.0	28.2
6-8	22.2%																					22.2
5-9	11.3%																					11.3
4-10	3.3%																					3.3
3-11	0.6%																					0.6
2-12
1-13
0-14

Total	100%	6.3%	6.3%	0.0%	14.2																	93.7	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	12	13	14
Win Out	0.4%	100.0%	12.8	21.1	73.7	5.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.5%
Lose Out	0.6%