Penn
Ivy League
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#214
Expected Predictive Rating-5.8#271
Pace64.1#300
Improvement-5.1#347

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#147
First Shot+1.0#158
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#182
Layup/Dunks-0.6#197
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#180
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#52
Freethrows-2.1#312
Improvement-2.5#315

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#297
First Shot-1.8#233
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#333
Layups/Dunks-2.0#262
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#287
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#236
Freethrows+2.8#25
Improvement-2.6#306
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 2.9% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.9% 1.6% 16.1%
First Four2.2% 2.5% 2.0%
First Round1.6% 2.0% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cornell (Home) - 35.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 31 - 52 - 13
Quad 47 - 59 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 307   Bucknell W 80-61 77%     1 - 0 +8.1 +4.3 +4.4
  Nov 10, 2023 119   @ Saint Joseph's L 61-69 20%     1 - 1 -1.9 -10.5 +8.6
  Nov 13, 2023 29   Villanova W 76-72 12%     2 - 1 +13.5 +13.5 +0.2
  Nov 18, 2023 351   @ Maryland Eastern Shore L 80-83 OT 79%     2 - 2 -14.3 -3.8 -10.1
  Nov 24, 2023 306   Lafayette W 74-72 77%     3 - 2 -8.7 +7.1 -15.6
  Nov 25, 2023 131   Belmont L 79-84 OT 41%     3 - 3 -5.6 +2.3 -7.7
  Nov 26, 2023 200   Monmouth W 76-61 59%     4 - 3 +9.8 +8.3 +3.1
  Dec 02, 2023 207   La Salle L 92-93 OT 49%     4 - 4 -3.8 +13.6 -17.4
  Dec 09, 2023 15   Kentucky L 66-81 5%     4 - 5 +0.3 -3.7 +4.2
  Dec 11, 2023 285   Howard W 78-68 72%     5 - 5 +1.0 +4.7 -3.0
  Dec 23, 2023 245   @ Rider W 77-73 OT 44%     6 - 5 +2.6 -2.5 +4.8
  Dec 30, 2023 2   @ Houston L 42-81 2%     6 - 6 -15.5 -11.8 -8.7
  Jan 02, 2024 5   @ Auburn L 68-88 2%     6 - 7 +2.0 +8.8 -7.5
  Jan 06, 2024 333   Dartmouth W 80-51 84%     7 - 7 1 - 0 +15.2 +9.3 +8.1
  Jan 15, 2024 116   @ Cornell L 60-77 18%     7 - 8 1 - 1 -10.5 -9.6 -1.6
  Jan 20, 2024 212   Harvard L 61-70 60%     7 - 9 1 - 2 -14.7 -11.8 -3.1
  Jan 27, 2024 234   @ Columbia L 81-84 42%     7 - 10 1 - 3 -3.9 +15.7 -19.9
  Feb 02, 2024 221   @ Brown L 61-70 40%     7 - 11 1 - 4 -9.4 -6.1 -4.1
  Feb 03, 2024 90   @ Yale L 58-74 13%     7 - 12 1 - 5 -7.0 -6.5 -1.7
  Feb 10, 2024 82   @ Princeton L 70-77 12%     7 - 13 1 - 6 +2.6 +5.7 -3.7
  Feb 16, 2024 90   Yale L 62-76 27%     7 - 14 1 - 7 -10.5 -0.6 -11.9
  Feb 17, 2024 221   Brown L 64-71 61%     7 - 15 1 - 8 -12.9 -10.1 -2.9
  Feb 23, 2024 333   @ Dartmouth W 82-69 70%     8 - 15 2 - 8 +4.7 +20.0 -13.4
  Feb 24, 2024 212   @ Harvard L 70-74 39%     8 - 16 2 - 9 -4.2 +5.3 -9.9
  Mar 01, 2024 116   Cornell L 76-80 36%    
  Mar 02, 2024 234   Columbia W 76-73 63%    
  Mar 09, 2024 82   Princeton L 67-74 26%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 3 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 1.6 1.6 5th
6th 16.1 4.8 21.0 6th
7th 17.4 44.6 14.0 0.2 76.2 7th
8th 1.2 0.1 1.3 8th
Total 18.6 44.7 30.1 6.6 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5
8-6
7-7
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5
8-6
7-7
6-8
5-9 6.6% 4.2% 4.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 6.3
4-10 30.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.9 29.2
3-11 44.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 1.0 43.7
2-12 18.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 18.3
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.3 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.6% 4.2% 15.9 0.3 3.9
Lose Out 18.6% 1.5% 16.0 1.5