Harvard
Ivy League
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#157
Expected Predictive Rating+0.1#165
Pace66.2#239
Improvement-0.3#221

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#266
First Shot-3.4#292
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#136
Layup/Dunks+4.5#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#328
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#311
Freethrows-1.5#294
Improvement-0.2#226

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#82
First Shot+2.4#101
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#98
Layups/Dunks-1.1#229
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#196
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#102
Freethrows+1.6#68
Improvement-0.1#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 9.1% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.3 15.0
.500 or above 85.5% 95.6% 77.7%
.500 or above in Conference 63.3% 81.7% 49.1%
Conference Champion 3.9% 8.1% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.1% 1.1%
First Four0.7% 0.3% 0.9%
First Round7.4% 9.0% 6.2%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Yale (Home) - 43.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 34 - 35 - 9
Quad 49 - 414 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 112   Louisiana L 61-75 38%     0 - 1 -10.5 -9.1 -2.1
  Nov 13, 2022 334   Elon W 92-77 84%     1 - 1 +4.7 +9.8 -5.9
  Nov 16, 2022 252   @ Northeastern W 70-69 60%     2 - 1 -1.0 +1.1 -2.0
  Nov 20, 2022 151   Siena W 69-59 59%     3 - 1 +8.1 -2.6 +10.9
  Nov 25, 2022 220   Loyola Chicago W 61-55 71%     4 - 1 +0.7 -11.1 +12.2
  Nov 27, 2022 132   @ Fordham L 60-68 34%     4 - 2 -3.3 -8.6 +5.4
  Nov 30, 2022 326   @ Holy Cross W 72-38 75%     5 - 2 +27.4 +1.7 +27.6
  Dec 02, 2022 143   Massachusetts L 68-71 56%     5 - 3 -4.1 -2.5 -1.7
  Dec 18, 2022 269   Howard L 54-66 80%     5 - 4 -20.3 -22.8 +2.5
  Dec 20, 2022 100   @ UC Irvine W 62-57 26%     6 - 4 +12.3 -6.3 +18.7
  Dec 22, 2022 7   @ Kansas L 54-68 5%     6 - 5 +5.4 -5.5 +10.0
  Dec 28, 2022 288   @ Maine W 74-73 OT 67%     7 - 5 -3.0 +0.8 -3.8
  Dec 31, 2022 115   @ Princeton L 66-69 31%     7 - 6 0 - 1 +2.7 -4.5 +7.2
  Jan 06, 2023 207   @ Brown W 70-68 OT 48%     8 - 6 1 - 1 +2.9 -3.9 +6.6
  Jan 07, 2023 92   @ Yale L 54-58 23%     8 - 7 1 - 2 +4.1 -12.1 +16.0
  Jan 14, 2023 346   Columbia W 73-51 92%     9 - 7 2 - 2 +7.2 +1.1 +8.1
  Jan 16, 2023 275   Dartmouth L 59-60 80%     9 - 8 2 - 3 -9.6 -10.2 +0.5
  Jan 21, 2023 105   Cornell W 95-89 47%     10 - 8 3 - 3 +7.2 +15.5 -8.4
  Jan 28, 2023 148   @ Penn L 68-83 37%     10 - 9 3 - 4 -11.2 -5.3 -6.0
  Feb 03, 2023 92   Yale L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 04, 2023 207   Brown W 66-61 69%    
  Feb 11, 2023 148   Penn W 69-67 59%    
  Feb 17, 2023 346   @ Columbia W 71-61 81%    
  Feb 18, 2023 105   @ Cornell L 73-79 27%    
  Feb 25, 2023 115   Princeton W 67-66 52%    
  Mar 04, 2023 275   @ Dartmouth W 67-63 62%    
Projected Record 14 - 12 7 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.2 1.7 3.9 1st
2nd 0.0 2.8 6.0 0.3 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.0 12.0 2.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 15.0 7.2 0.0 23.6 4th
5th 0.5 9.9 10.8 0.2 21.5 5th
6th 0.3 5.2 9.6 1.0 16.0 6th
7th 0.3 2.7 5.4 1.3 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
Total 0.4 3.0 11.1 22.2 28.8 22.2 10.2 2.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 83.8% 1.7    0.7 0.8 0.1
9-5 21.4% 2.2    0.1 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 0.8 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 2.0% 18.0% 18.0% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6
9-5 10.2% 12.7% 12.7% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 8.9
8-6 22.2% 9.5% 9.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.8 0.0 20.1
7-7 28.8% 7.2% 7.2% 14.8 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.1 26.7
6-8 22.2% 5.4% 5.4% 15.6 0.0 0.5 0.7 21.0
5-9 11.1% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5 10.6
4-10 3.0% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.1 2.9
3-11 0.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 14.6 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.0 1.4 92.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 18.0% 13.1 3.4 10.2 4.3 0.1
Lose Out 0.4% 1.0% 16.0 1.0