Princeton
Ivy League
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#112
Expected Predictive Rating+3.7#119
Pace67.5#208
Improvement+0.2#82

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#102
First Shot+4.1#68
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#273
Layup/Dunks+9.3#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#355
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#201
Freethrows-0.4#205
Improvement+0.0#180

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#142
First Shot-1.3#211
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#40
Layups/Dunks-6.3#342
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#35
Freethrows+0.1#179
Improvement+0.2#69
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.7% 23.2% 14.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.8
.500 or above 98.3% 98.6% 92.5%
.500 or above in Conference 92.1% 92.5% 86.3%
Conference Champion 29.7% 30.3% 20.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round22.6% 23.1% 14.7%
Second Round3.2% 3.3% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Home) - 94.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 35 - 46 - 6
Quad 412 - 117 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 125   Hofstra L 77-83 64%     0 - 1 -6.0 +0.2 -6.1
  Nov 11, 2022 182   @ Navy L 73-74 56%     0 - 2 +1.1 +2.4 -1.4
  Nov 14, 2022 233   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 94-64 66%     1 - 2 +29.4 +16.1 +13.2
  Nov 19, 2022 304   @ Marist W 62-55 80%     2 - 2 +1.9 -3.3 +5.8
  Nov 24, 2022 294   Army W 74-66 85%     3 - 2 +0.7 -5.0 +5.5
  Nov 26, 2022 229   Northeastern W 56-54 75%     4 - 2 -1.4 -13.6 +12.2
  Dec 03, 2022 187   @ Drexel W 83-63 58%     5 - 2 +21.7 +16.9 +6.2
  Dec 06, 2022 269   Lafayette W 69-58 87%     6 - 2 +2.8 +0.5 +3.4
  Dec 10, 2022 326   Monmouth W 79-62 94%    
  Dec 13, 2022 50   Iona L 69-75 29%    
  Dec 16, 2022 201   Delaware W 76-67 79%    
  Dec 31, 2022 152   Harvard W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 06, 2023 343   @ Columbia W 78-65 89%    
  Jan 07, 2023 149   @ Cornell L 78-79 48%    
  Jan 14, 2023 223   @ Brown W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 16, 2023 170   @ Penn W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 21, 2023 313   Dartmouth W 77-62 92%    
  Jan 28, 2023 84   @ Yale L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 03, 2023 149   Cornell W 81-76 69%    
  Feb 04, 2023 343   Columbia W 81-62 96%    
  Feb 11, 2023 313   @ Dartmouth W 74-65 80%    
  Feb 17, 2023 223   Brown W 72-62 81%    
  Feb 18, 2023 84   Yale W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 25, 2023 152   @ Harvard L 68-69 49%    
  Mar 04, 2023 170   Penn W 76-69 73%    
Projected Record 17 - 8 9 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 4.3 9.7 9.4 4.7 1.1 29.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 7.2 12.0 6.2 1.0 27.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 6.3 8.9 2.6 0.1 18.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.3 6.2 1.3 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.4 0.8 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.8 8.9 14.2 17.9 18.9 16.0 10.3 4.7 1.1 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
13-1 100.0% 4.7    4.5 0.2
12-2 90.6% 9.4    7.2 2.1 0.0
11-3 60.6% 9.7    4.7 4.4 0.6 0.0
10-4 23.0% 4.3    0.9 2.0 1.2 0.2
9-5 2.7% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 29.7% 29.7 18.4 8.9 2.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 1.1% 69.6% 56.4% 13.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 30.3%
13-1 4.7% 47.2% 45.4% 1.8% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.5 3.3%
12-2 10.3% 36.8% 36.7% 0.2% 12.7 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 6.5 0.3%
11-3 16.0% 30.9% 30.9% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 1.1 0.0 11.1 0.0%
10-4 18.9% 23.1% 23.1% 13.4 0.4 2.1 1.7 0.2 14.6
9-5 17.9% 18.4% 18.4% 13.7 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 14.6
8-6 14.2% 13.5% 13.5% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 12.3
7-7 8.9% 10.3% 10.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 8.0
6-8 4.8% 8.0% 8.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.4
5-9 2.2% 4.8% 4.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.1
4-10 0.7% 3.8% 3.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.7
3-11 0.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-12 0.0% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.0 0.0
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14
Total 100% 22.7% 22.5% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 4.1 8.7 6.3 2.0 0.3 77.3 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 89.4% 8.9 0.5 1.4 3.4 5.3 11.1 13.5 19.2 12.0 19.2 3.4 0.5