Minnesota
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
82  Obsa Ali SR 31:40
270  Alec Basten FR 32:22
296  Derek Wiebke SR 32:26
323  Connor Olson SO 32:30
329  Charlie Lawrence SR 32:30
355  Hamza Ali FR 32:33
469  Evan Ferlic SO 32:45
697  Joey Duerr SO 33:12
1,018  Nick Rink FR 33:39
1,243  Owen Hoeft FR 33:59
National Rank #39 of 315
Midwest Region Rank #4 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 88.9%
Most Likely Finish 30th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 6.7%


Regional Champion 16.7%
Top 5 in Regional 97.1%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Obsa Ali Alec Basten Derek Wiebke Connor Olson Charlie Lawrence Hamza Ali Evan Ferlic Joey Duerr Nick Rink Owen Hoeft
Roy Griak Invitational 09/23 670 32:00 32:15 32:07 33:37 31:42 33:01 33:38 33:49 35:01
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 573 31:23 32:20 32:16 32:31 32:37 32:03 31:58
Big Ten Championship 10/29 743 31:36 32:21 33:00 32:27 32:57 32:32 32:44 32:51 33:59
Midwest Region Championships 11/10 839 32:05 32:32 32:27 33:17 32:47 32:44 33:17





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 88.9% 26.4 659 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.3 2.5 3.7 4.7 6.0 6.8 8.0 9.2 9.9 11.2 12.1 8.3
Region Championship 100% 3.1 109 16.7 18.6 23.1 26.4 12.5 2.5 0.3 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Obsa Ali 94.2% 72.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6
Alec Basten 88.9% 173.1
Derek Wiebke 88.9% 184.3
Connor Olson 88.9% 194.7
Charlie Lawrence 88.9% 191.3
Hamza Ali 88.9% 200.1
Evan Ferlic 88.9% 216.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Obsa Ali 2.8 19.2 19.3 15.2 9.1 7.1 4.5 3.5 3.2 2.1 1.5 2.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.3
Alec Basten 23.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.5 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.1
Derek Wiebke 26.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.4 1.6 2.1 2.0 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.2 3.2 2.8 2.9 3.5 2.6 2.5 2.9 2.7
Connor Olson 29.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.6 2.2 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 3.4 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.4
Charlie Lawrence 30.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 2.3 1.6 2.6 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.4
Hamza Ali 32.9 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.4 2.1 1.5 2.4 1.6 2.6 3.1 3.0 2.5 2.7 2.7
Evan Ferlic 42.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.4 1.7




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 16.7% 100.0% 16.7 16.7 1
2 18.6% 100.0% 18.6 18.6 2
3 23.1% 100.0% 3.2 4.6 7.4 4.1 2.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 23.1 3
4 26.4% 99.4% 0.1 0.1 2.3 5.7 7.4 5.3 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 26.2 4
5 12.5% 35.2% 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.2 8.1 4.4 5
6 2.5% 2.5 6
7 0.3% 0.3 7
8 0.1% 0.1 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 88.9% 16.7 18.6 0.1 3.3 7.0 13.4 12.1 9.3 4.9 2.4 0.7 0.7 11.2 35.2 53.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Iona 97.0% 1.0 1.0
Iowa State 95.0% 1.0 1.0
Washington 71.7% 1.0 0.7
North Carolina St. 69.1% 1.0 0.7
Illinois 56.1% 1.0 0.6
Washington St. 42.1% 1.0 0.4
Eastern Kentucky 38.0% 1.0 0.4
Penn 37.5% 1.0 0.4
Boise State 37.1% 1.0 0.4
Navy 32.9% 1.0 0.3
Penn State 26.3% 1.0 0.3
Wisconsin 26.1% 1.0 0.3
Florida State 23.7% 1.0 0.2
Purdue 22.8% 1.0 0.2
San Francisco 20.6% 2.0 0.4
Tulsa 7.9% 1.0 0.1
Eastern Michigan 4.6% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 4.0% 1.0 0.0
Virginia 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 1.0% 2.0 0.0
California 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Nebraska 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 7.4
Minimum 2.0
Maximum 13.0