New Mexico
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
4  Courtney Frerichs SR 19:12
5  Alice Wright SO 19:12
6  Rhona Auckland JR 19:22
13  Calli Thackery SR 19:29
28  Molly Renfer SR 19:36
62  Heleene Tambet SR 19:52
114  Whitney Thornburg SR 20:03
143  Emily Hosker-Thornhill SR 20:10
309  Natasha Bernal FR 20:36
370  Sophie Connor SR 20:42
606  Lindsey Andrews SR 21:04
National Rank #1 of 339
Mountain Region Rank #1 of 20
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 1st at Nationals


National Champion 89.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 99.8%
Top 10 at Nationals 100.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 100.0%


Regional Champion 95.0%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Courtney Frerichs Alice Wright Rhona Auckland Calli Thackery Molly Renfer Heleene Tambet Whitney Thornburg Emily Hosker-Thornhill Natasha Bernal Sophie Connor Lindsey Andrews
Joe Piane Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 10/02 162 19:24 19:26 19:26 19:40 19:54 20:12 20:19 20:42 21:11
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/16 55 19:09 19:14 19:11 19:13 19:25 20:12 19:59
Mountain West Championships 10/30 58 18:45 19:01 19:15 19:27 19:26 19:28 19:59 20:58 20:45
Mountain Region Championships 11/13 304 19:51 19:52 19:51 19:52 19:55 20:23 20:59
NCAA Championship 11/21 76 19:04 19:09 19:23 19:23 19:33 19:55 20:09





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 1.2 73 89.0 7.6 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.1 24 95.0 5.0 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Courtney Frerichs 100% 5.9 3.8 7.9 11.2 10.6 9.1 8.7 6.0 5.8 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5
Alice Wright 100% 6.2 3.6 7.1 11.2 10.4 8.6 7.6 7.2 5.3 4.6 3.8 2.9 2.9 2.4 2.4 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.6
Rhona Auckland 100% 13.1 0.5 2.0 3.2 4.7 5.5 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.6 3.6 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.1 3.5 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.0
Calli Thackery 100% 20.2 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.0 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.0 1.6
Molly Renfer 100% 31.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.9 1.9 2.5 1.6 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.4 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.6
Heleene Tambet 100% 68.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7
Whitney Thornburg 100% 97.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Courtney Frerichs 1.7 33.5 25.2 16.5 10.2 6.7 3.7 2.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Alice Wright 1.8 30.9 25.5 17.4 10.1 7.1 4.3 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rhona Auckland 3.8 6.9 12.6 17.2 16.7 13.7 10.8 8.1 5.4 3.2 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Calli Thackery 5.3 1.8 5.9 10.6 14.2 14.2 13.4 11.1 8.7 6.2 4.1 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Molly Renfer 7.2 0.3 1.4 3.7 6.7 10.2 12.1 12.9 10.8 10.0 7.3 5.2 4.6 3.3 2.7 2.1 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2
Heleene Tambet 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.4 4.4 6.2 7.5 7.4 8.1 7.3 6.4 6.6 5.5 5.1 4.2 4.1 3.3 3.2 2.6 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.3
Whitney Thornburg 18.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.2 3.6 4.3 4.8 5.3 4.8 5.0 4.8 5.7 5.0 5.1 4.5 4.3 4.5 3.5 3.2 3.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 95.0% 100.0% 95.0 95.0 1
2 5.0% 100.0% 5.0 5.0 2
3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 3
4 4
5 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
Total 100% 100.0% 95.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Arkansas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Virginia 100.0% 1.0 1.0
North Carolina St. 100.0% 2.0 2.0
Providence 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Boise State 99.8% 2.0 2.0
Penn State 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Iowa State 99.5% 1.0 1.0
Washington 99.2% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 99.1% 2.0 2.0
Syracuse 96.5% 1.0 1.0
Princeton 95.5% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 94.1% 1.0 0.9
Minnesota 93.0% 1.0 0.9
Vanderbilt 92.1% 2.0 1.8
BYU 78.3% 1.0 0.8
Utah 63.8% 1.0 0.6
Purdue 53.2% 1.0 0.5
William and Mary 40.1% 1.0 0.4
North Carolina 39.3% 1.0 0.4
Columbia 26.3% 1.0 0.3
SMU 21.4% 2.0 0.4
Baylor 11.7% 1.0 0.1
West Virginia 10.3% 1.0 0.1
Air Force 10.1% 1.0 0.1
Colorado St. 8.8% 2.0 0.2
Wisconsin 8.6% 1.0 0.1
Arizona State 8.4% 2.0 0.2
Texas A&M 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Florida State 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Indiana 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Tulsa 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 2.9% 1.0 0.0
Penn 1.8% 1.0 0.0
Florida 1.7% 1.0 0.0
Boston College 1.4% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Bradley 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 22.2
Minimum 15.0
Maximum 29.0