Michigan
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
16  Erin Finn JR 19:30
60  Shannon Osika SR 19:51
96  Gina Sereno SO 20:00
117  Jaimie Phelan SO 20:03
144  Anna Pasternak SR 20:10
177  Sophie Linn SO 20:15
241  Courtney Munley SO 20:26
276  Jamie Morrissey SO 20:31
332  Taylor Manett SR 20:39
594  Rachel Barrett FR 21:03
National Rank #8 of 339
Great Lakes Region Rank #1 of 34
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.9%
Most Likely Finish 4th at Nationals


National Champion 0.8%
Top 5 at Nationals 34.7%
Top 10 at Nationals 69.3%
Top 20 at Nationals 97.0%


Regional Champion 68.3%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Erin Finn Shannon Osika Gina Sereno Jaimie Phelan Anna Pasternak Sophie Linn Courtney Munley Jamie Morrissey Taylor Manett Rachel Barrett
Greater Louisville Classic (Gold) 10/03 375 19:38 19:41 20:05 20:14 20:11 20:12 20:26 20:21
D1 Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/17 376 19:37 19:45 20:05 20:08 20:14 20:30 20:52
Big Ten Championships 11/01 344 19:19 20:18 19:51 19:50 20:20 20:07 20:29 20:26 20:45
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/13 370 19:48 20:03 20:03 20:04 19:58 20:08 21:04
NCAA Championship 11/21 344 19:26 19:48 20:01 20:04 20:13 20:24 20:38





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.9% 8.5 292 0.8 8.1 8.4 8.9 8.5 8.8 7.6 6.9 5.9 5.5 4.7 4.7 3.9 3.5 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
Region Championship 100% 1.4 57 68.3 22.1 8.1 1.3 0.2 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Erin Finn 100% 21.5 0.1 0.9 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.9 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.4 3.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.9
Shannon Osika 99.9% 64.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6
Gina Sereno 99.9% 90.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Jaimie Phelan 99.9% 99.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
Anna Pasternak 99.9% 119.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Sophie Linn 99.9% 135.5 0.1 0.0
Courtney Munley 99.9% 165.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Erin Finn 2.9 3.1 24.5 25.8 19.8 10.7 6.3 4.0 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Shannon Osika 7.6 0.1 1.2 3.9 7.3 10.9 11.3 10.0 8.9 7.6 6.5 5.7 4.4 4.0 3.1 2.7 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2
Gina Sereno 11.6 0.1 1.0 2.3 3.9 5.8 6.3 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.1 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.0 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.3
Jaimie Phelan 13.2 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.1 3.8 4.9 5.7 6.0 6.0 6.2 5.6 5.5 5.3 4.6 4.4 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.7
Anna Pasternak 17.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.8 3.2 4.0 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.7 5.0 4.4 4.9 4.4 3.8 4.0 3.3 3.9 3.5 2.7 2.8
Sophie Linn 21.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.8 3.1 4.0 3.7 3.7 4.0 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.0 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.6
Courtney Munley 30.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.3 3.0 3.3 3.4 2.9 2.8




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 68.3% 100.0% 68.3 68.3 1
2 22.1% 100.0% 22.1 22.1 2
3 8.1% 100.0% 4.6 2.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.1 3
4 1.3% 100.0% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.3 4
5 0.2% 63.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5
6 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
Total 100% 99.9% 68.3 22.1 4.6 2.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 90.3 9.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Oregon 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Colorado 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Penn State 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Iowa State 99.5% 1.0 1.0
Stanford 98.8% 1.0 1.0
Miss State 98.3% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 94.1% 1.0 0.9
Minnesota 93.0% 2.0 1.9
Georgetown 83.8% 1.0 0.8
Utah 63.8% 1.0 0.6
Purdue 53.2% 2.0 1.1
Texas 43.8% 1.0 0.4
Weber State 40.5% 1.0 0.4
Villanova 30.4% 1.0 0.3
Kansas 26.0% 1.0 0.3
Yale 19.5% 1.0 0.2
Air Force 10.1% 1.0 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 9.1% 1.0 0.1
Colorado St. 8.8% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 8.6% 2.0 0.2
Lipscomb 6.0% 1.0 0.1
Rice 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Indiana 5.9% 1.0 0.1
California 5.3% 1.0 0.1
Brown 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Mississippi 3.3% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Florida 1.7% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 1.4% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Bradley 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.3% 1.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.2% 1.0 0.0
New Hampshire 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Connecticut 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 13.8
Minimum 7.0
Maximum 19.0