Oregon
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
30  Waverly Neer SR 19:38
39  Alli Cash SO 19:44
58  Molly Grabill SR 19:50
115  Maggie Schmaedick JR 20:03
134  Frida Berge SO 20:08
160  Annie Leblanc SR 20:12
219  Ashley Maton JR 20:23
239  Sarah Baxter FR 20:26
263  Emma Abrahamson SO 20:29
433  Jessica Hull FR 20:48
National Rank #4 of 339
West Region Rank #1 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 2nd at Nationals


National Champion 1.7%
Top 5 at Nationals 45.8%
Top 10 at Nationals 78.4%
Top 20 at Nationals 98.2%


Regional Champion 55.0%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Waverly Neer Alli Cash Molly Grabill Maggie Schmaedick Frida Berge Annie Leblanc Ashley Maton Sarah Baxter Emma Abrahamson Jessica Hull
Washington Invitational 10/02 345 19:54 19:42 20:09 19:48 20:07 20:37 20:31 20:27 20:39
D1 Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/17 455 19:40 20:14 20:01 20:30 20:22 20:07 20:32
Pac 12 Championships 10/30 297 19:36 19:41 19:57 20:01 20:00 20:15 20:22 20:38 20:27 20:58
West Region Championships 11/13 407 19:35 19:48 20:14 20:16 20:09 21:04 20:40
NCAA Championship 11/21 305 19:35 19:36 19:37 20:14 20:10 20:11 20:10





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100.0% 7.2 264 1.7 12.5 12.1 10.7 8.9 8.3 7.2 6.4 5.9 4.7 4.3 3.5 2.9 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.7 68 55.0 23.8 13.2 7.8 0.2 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Waverly Neer 100.0% 35.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.9 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.8
Alli Cash 100.0% 47.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.4
Molly Grabill 100.0% 61.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.9
Maggie Schmaedick 100.0% 98.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1
Frida Berge 100.0% 116.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
Annie Leblanc 100.0% 126.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Ashley Maton 100.0% 158.6 0.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Waverly Neer 5.0 0.6 10.9 12.9 12.8 12.8 10.1 7.7 6.1 5.1 3.8 3.2 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Alli Cash 7.2 0.2 5.0 8.1 9.0 9.3 9.0 8.2 7.0 6.6 5.7 4.9 3.9 3.6 2.9 2.7 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4
Molly Grabill 9.7 0.1 1.9 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.2 7.5 6.8 7.0 5.8 5.6 4.8 4.9 4.2 3.4 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.1 1.2 0.7
Maggie Schmaedick 17.9 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.6 2.5 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.4 3.9 3.9 3.7 2.8 3.6 2.9 2.5 2.6
Frida Berge 23.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.9 2.3 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.4 2.9 3.8 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.9 2.8 3.3 3.0
Annie Leblanc 27.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.6 3.2 2.7 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.9
Ashley Maton 38.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.3 1.7 1.5




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 55.0% 100.0% 55.0 55.0 1
2 23.8% 100.0% 23.8 23.8 2
3 13.2% 100.0% 6.8 2.9 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.2 3
4 7.8% 100.0% 3.9 2.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 4
5 0.2% 100.0% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5
6 0.0% 0.0 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 100.0% 55.0 23.8 6.8 6.8 4.2 1.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.8 21.1




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Washington 99.2% 2.0 2.0
Stanford 98.8% 3.0 3.0
Miss State 98.3% 1.0 1.0
Georgetown 83.8% 1.0 0.8
BYU 78.3% 1.0 0.8
Utah 63.8% 2.0 1.3
Purdue 53.2% 1.0 0.5
Texas 43.8% 1.0 0.4
Weber State 40.5% 1.0 0.4
Villanova 30.4% 1.0 0.3
Kansas 26.0% 1.0 0.3
Yale 19.5% 1.0 0.2
Air Force 10.1% 2.0 0.2
Stephen F. Austin 9.1% 1.0 0.1
Colorado St. 8.8% 1.0 0.1
Arizona State 8.4% 1.0 0.1
Rice 5.9% 1.0 0.1
California 5.3% 2.0 0.1
Brown 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Oklahoma 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Florida 1.7% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 1.4% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Gonzaga 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 0.7% 2.0 0.0
Bradley 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.3% 1.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.2% 1.0 0.0
New Hampshire 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Connecticut 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 11.7
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 20.0